VSS leading the way in Trauma-Informed Approach with formal accreditation

Andrew Walker, Victims and Survivors Service (VSS) CEO

The Victims and Survivors Service (VSS) has become the first organisation in Northern Ireland to be accredited with a Silver ‘Trauma-Informed: Working With Trauma Quality Mark’, offering formal recognition of its trauma-informed approach in identifying and responding to the needs of victims and survivors. 

The initiative, supported by the Safeguarding Board for Northern Ireland’s (SBNI) workforce development project (Trauma Informed Practice), involved working with ‘One Small Thing’, a specialist charity which provides assessment and accreditation to organisations who can evidence that they meet a robust, accessible, and supportive set of standards for working with trauma.

As the first organisation in Northern Ireland to receive this accreditation, VSS ensures that victims and survivors receive the measured, considerate, and tailored trauma-informed approach required in all interactions with its team and in the services and support provided.

Receiving this accreditation demonstrates the commitment of VSS and its team to delivering a trauma-informed approach in everything it does to support victims and survivors.

Responding to the announcement, the Safeguarding Board NI Trauma Informed Practice Team described the process as:

“A pleasure, which is a well-deserved recognition of their efforts. We are confident that VSS will serve as a model for other organisations to emulate, follow and collaborate with”.   

VSS Chief Executive Andrew Walker commented:

“This important accreditation provides us with crucial assurance on how we work and deliver support and services for those who need them. Additionally, it ensures that everything we do is carried out in a way that is informed by the lived experiences of victims and survivors and their specific needs.  I am grateful to the Safeguarding Board for Northern Ireland for their support, and to VSS staff and our partners for their dedication to trauma-informed practice.”

Eversheds Sutherland: Murphy’s Good Jobs Consultation Long Overdue

Writes Ian McFarland, Employment Partner, Eversheds Sutherland. Article first published in the Irish News, Tuesday 9 July. 

Ian McFarland, Employment Partner, Eversheds Sutherland.

The unveiling of Minister for the Economy Conor Murphy’s Good Jobs consultation was long-awaited and overdue. Years of political stagnancy and a lack of desire on the part of previous Ministers for the Economy have meant that Northern Ireland has been left behind in its employment laws in recent years.

Unsurprisingly, the terms of the consultation have mainly been inspired by developments to our east and south. The consultation papers are comprehensive, but among the 157 pages of the document, it is clear that some proposals are more likely to come to fruition than others.

The most likely of the proposed reforms to be implemented are the most high profile. Zero hour contracts will be a key area of focus. While much maligned and open to exploitation by some employers, they can and do work for many. Their abolition is unlikely, but they may be limited to specific circumstances as in the Republic of Ireland, where the work must be of a casual nature, short-term relief work, or work done in emergency situations.  

Fire and rehire will also be in the Department’s crosshairs; legislative intervention to prevent the practice is not impossible to imagine, but it remains more likely that we will see a Code of Practice similar to that recently implemented in Great Britain.

Developments in relation to the fair distribution of tips are also expected, with a legal requirement for full amount of cashless tips be passed on, which would be a welcome development for the workers but come at a cost for the employers.

The issue of holiday pay has vexed employers for many years, but there will likely be some much needed clarification with the reference period for calculation purposes expected to be extended from 12 weeks to 52 weeks, assisting local employers currently faced with the dilemma of reconciling competing reference periods in the legislation and recent decisions.

Flexible working developments will also likely reflect recent developments in Great Britain, including the right to flexible working from day one of employment and making the exercise of the right to request more straightforward. Changes to family-related rights such as carer’s leave, neonatal care leave and pay, protection for pregnant employees, and paternity leave will all likely follow a similar path of modernisation as those seen elsewhere.

The consultation period set out, lasting until 30 September, is extensive, fulfilling the purpose of devolution by allowing local voices to be heard. Northern Ireland employers can now engage with the process, and while the proposals are inspired by examples from elsewhere, this consultation allows us the opportunity to make them fully our own.

Government Plans Laid Out in King's Speech

The King’s Speech is the epitome of pomp and ceremony, with hours of coverage and preparation of a twenty-minute speech. This morning, the King made the journey from Buckingham Palace over to the House of Lords for the State opening of Parliament, while Buckingham Palace took Samatha Dixon MP “hostage” while the King is in Parliament; an old tradition, to ensure the King’s safe return.

The contents of the speech were a repetition of what we’ve heard from the Labour Party over the six weeks of the election campaign. With a mandate of growth, growth, growth, the King said the word repeatedly throughout the first two minutes of his speech, also reiterating the Labour mantra of “Get Britain Building.” Other pledges, which have been repeated time and again during the Labour campaign, included nationalisation plans for GB Railways, the creation the GB Energy company, a Border Security Command, House of Lords Reform, the end to VAT exemptions for private schools, and a ban on conversion therapy. The speech was just as anticipated, with little surprises, but some important Labour pledges were excluded, such as voting for 16-year-olds, a mandatory retirement age for the House of Lords, and an AI Bill.

The King also said that the government will focus on devolution to the nations and regions and intends to “repeal and replace” the Northern Ireland Troubles Act, a move very welcome across party lines in Northern Ireland, as pointed out by the SDLP leader Colum Eastwood and Upper Bann MP Carla Lockhart in their post-speech comments.

From today, Parliament will start to debate the contents of the Speech for the next six sitting days, with a vote at the end. This debate is the first opportunity for MPs to deliver their maiden speeches in the House of Commons, so expect to see some fresh faces preaching their loyalty and thanks to their constituents, with little mention of the speech itself, over the next week.

Nesbitt’s Health Priorities Outlined

Health News 10 July 2024

It’s always worth a look when a departmental press release comes out on the cusp of a holiday. This afternoon’s surprise was from the Health Minister, Mike Nesbitt MLA, releasing a written statement on his department’s planned initiatives.  There’s A LOT to cover, so here’s a quick summary. Deep breath…

Bengoa’s Back

The first headline grabber is the news that Professor Rafael Bengoa of the eponymous and oft-referred-to “Bengoa Report”, will return to Northern Ireland in the Autumn.  Professor Bengoa first reported his recommendations for reform and transformation of the Northern Ireland health service in 2016. He will return for a conference and a series of engagements around these same topics.  The Minister states his intention to “reboot the public conversation around health reform.”

Welcoming this news, Alliance Health spokesperson Nuala McAlister MLA said, “I hope that this visit from Professor Bengoa will refocus the minds of those who have been unable to make difficult decisions required for the necessary transformation of our health service, and increase the urgency of reform.”

Summer Consultation on Hospital Reconfiguration

The Minister has also announced today that he is planning to publish a proposal for hospital reconfiguration for consultation over the summer. The Minister states clearly, “while every existing hospital has a key role to play, every hospital cannot provide every service.”  Minister Nesbitt knows he won’t be able to please all the people all the time and he’s up front in acknowledging it.

Three Year Strategic Plan for Health and Social Care

The Minister has stated that he will issue a Strategic Plan for Health and Social Care the remaining mandate of the current Assembly. It will cover three themes: Stabilisation, Reform and Delivery.  He notes that, given budget constraints, Stabilisation will be the dominant theme.

Primary Care and Social Care as Priorities

The Health Minister stated that prioritising primary care and social care are “front and centre” in the department’s priorities.  He recognises that “it is vitally important in its own right to help our citizens live healthy and independent lives in the community” and notes the additional benefit of “easing pressure on our beleaguered acute hospital sector”. 

Reform of Adult Social Care - news next week

It will come as welcome news to the sector that there is imminent news on this. The Minister has announced that a Delivery Plan for the Social Care Collaborative Forum will be published next week. He stated that the Forum is working collaboratively to implement proposals arising out of the consultation on the Reform of Adult Social Care and said key themes for the Delivery Plan will focus on: Building a Sustainable Workforce; Improving Commissioning and Contracting Arrangements; and Developing Improved Partnership Working. 

Children’s Social Care Services

Today’s Ministerial Statement coincides with the publication of responses to the public consultation on the Independent Review of Children’s Social Care Services.  The Health Minister said he is planning to publish his response to the Review’s recommendations in Autumn. 

Minister for Children and Families

Also of note, the Minister stated he will be looking at cross-cutting recommendations involving other Departments, including recommendations on the possible appointment of a Minister for Children and Families, the establishment of a Children and Families Arm’s Length Body and the expansion of the Sure Start programme and the Gillen Review of Civil and Family Justice. 

Tackling Inequalities – Public Health Prevention

Throughout his statement, the Minister reiterates his now-familiar theme of health inequalities.  He announced the first phase of a “Live Better” initiative, designed to bring targeted health support to communities which need it most.  This will build on work by the PHA and others, covering areas such as increasing uptake in health screening and vaccination, mental health support, blood pressure and cholesterol checks, nutrition and physical activity. 

In the week when the Minister also announced that the core grant to voluntary organisations is to remain at the 50% level provided in 2023-24, it is of note that his statement says “my intention is that the community and voluntary sector will be a key, and equal partner in delivering and supporting this programme.”

The long weekend ahead will need to be restful: it looks like July and August are going to be action-packed in the Department of Health.

The Health Minister’s statement can be read in full here *doh-wms-Department of Health planned initiatives-july-2024.pdf (health-ni.gov.uk)

ENDS 

By Vicki Caddy, PR Director, Head of Healthcare Communications

Health Minister Mike Nesbitt MLA meeting health service staff

#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Special

#GE24 Brown O’Connor Communications General Election Special

We’ve made it, today is General Election Eve. Tomorrow, voters will head to the polls in the first July General Election since 1945. Whilst the result in Great Britain may seem inevitable, the same cannot be said for the contests taking place in Northern Ireland, where this is arguably the General Election with the most seats in play for quite some time.

Here, the eligible electorate is 1,363,961, an increase of 69,990 voters from the last General Election in 2019. This is also the first election in Northern Ireland to take place under the new constituency boundaries following the 2023 review.

In what has been a somewhat lacklustre campaign, the stakes are high for Northern Ireland’s main parties. Going into this election, the DUP hold 8 seats, Sinn Féin 7, the SDLP 2, and Alliance 1.

Will the DUP be able to hold on to their 8 seats, or can Sinn Féin complete the hat-trick and become the largest party at Westminster level, to go along with their recent Assembly and Council Election triumphs?

Will Colum Eastwood’s SDLP see their two MPs re-elected and can Alliance continue their 2019 surge by increasing (and maintaining) their presence at Westminster?

Finally, can the UUP return to the green benches after an absence of 5 years and how will the TUV fare after not standing in 2019?

All of these questions will be answered by the early hours of Friday morning, after all the votes have been counted in the three count centres across Northern Ireland.

Over the last number of weeks, we have been previewing each of Northern Ireland’s 18 constituencies and the races within them. Before we head to the polls tomorrow, here is a summary of all 18, with links to our blog where you can find more detailed previews for each constituency, as well as our prediction of the result in each of them.

Belfast East – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Too Close to Call.

Belfast North – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Sinn Féin Hold.

Belfast South and Mid Down – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: SDLP Hold.

Belfast West – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Sinn Féin Hold.

East Antrim – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Conor Prediction: DUP Hold.

East Londonderry – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: DUP Hold.

Fermanagh and South Tyrone – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Sinn Féin Hold.

Foyle – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: SDLP Hold.

Lagan Valley – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Too Close to Call.

Mid Ulster – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Sinn Féin Hold.

Newry and Armagh – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Sinn Féin Hold.

North Antrim – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: DUP Hold.

North Down – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Too Close to Call.

South Antrim – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Too Close to Call.

South Down – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Sinn Féin Hold.

Strangford – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: DUP Hold.

West Tyrone – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Sinn Féin Hold.

Upper Bann – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: DUP Hold.

#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election 2024 Summary

Brown O’Connor Communications General Election 2024 Summary

·       One of the most unpredictable elections in recent times. 

·       As many as six seats could change hands. 

·       First July election since 1945.

·       First Westminster election with Stormont up and running since 2015. 

 2019 RESULTS

In the 2019 General Election, four seats changed hands. Back in 2001, seven seats changed party hands; in 2010, just two.

In 2019, the DUP lost two seats but remained the largest party with 8 MPs elected to Westminster. Sinn Féin stayed on 7 seats, despite losing Foyle (to the SDLP) and winning Belfast North (from the DUP). Both largest parties lost vote share between 2017 and 2019.

The SDLP won Belfast South (from the DUP) and Foyle, returning to the House of Commons benches after an absence of 2 years. Alliance won the North Down seat vacated by independent Sylvia Hermon. Overall, their vote share more than doubled, and was at a higher level than the SDLP. 

Five new MPs headed over to London: Colum Eastwood (SDLP), Stephen Farry (Alliance), John Finucane (Sinn Féin), Claire Hanna (SDLP) and Carla Lockhart (DUP, taking over from David Simpson). Sinn Féin’s Órfhlaith Begley kept the West Tyrone seat she won in the 2018 by-election following Barry McElduff’s resignation.

BOUNDARY REVIEW

Before the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies, constituencies ranged from just shy of 65,000 (East Antrim) to 83,000 (Upper Bann). The adjustments, transferring wards and sometimes parts of wards in and out of neighbouring constituencies, has narrowed the gap between the smallest (Belfast East, just shy of 73,000) and the largest (Lagan Valley, now with just over 82,000).

The results of the boundary review won’t have a major effect on the 2024 General Election. However, the parties will be examining the results and tally information captured during the verification stage of the count to see how it affects their chances at picking up fourth or fifth seats in the next Assembly poll. 

COMMENTARY

Until the 4 July poll, there will be no proper evidence of how voters will really behave. Opinion polls trying to tease out their potential behaviour beforehand may in turn sway their actions on the day of the election. Voters can also use pollsters to send a message to the parties they normally support by suggesting bold action, but are less adventurous in the polling station. Until the real poll, all other information, campaigning, rumours and speculation becomes part of a giant feedback loop.

Four ‘known unknowns’ make many of the seats hard to call. 

• Turnout for the DUP - if some voters unhappy with the DUP strategy around the NI Protocol stay at home and abstain from the election rather than vote for another party, this will benefit the UUP’s Robin Swann (South Antrim), as well as Alliance’s Stephen Farry (North Down) and Sorcha Eastwood (Lagan Valley).

• Will Sinn Féin voters turn out and vote for other parties in the four constituencies in which there is no Sinn Féin candidate, or will they stay at home?

• The level of tactical voting will decide many seats - Northern Ireland voters are quite savvy, they know that plumping their support for a candidate likely to finish in third place or below will not affect the overall result. Many will want to record their support for their favourite party or candidate. But how many will see their constituency as a two-horse race and vote for the perceived top two candidates? The level of support for the TUV and ‘underdog’ UUP candidates like Tim Collins and Robbie Butler could be crucial in South Antrim, North Down and Lagan Valley.

• Have Alliance peaked? Or will their support increase again? The Alliance surge was obvious at the 2019 General Election. Their vote share more than doubled in 12 constituencies. Opinion polling does not suggest significant further growth. But in the privacy of the polling station, voters may surprise those making predictions!

The only party not to lose a deposit in the 2019 General Election was the DUP. In fact, looking back as far as 1997, the DUP has always retained its deposit in every Westminster election/by-election. Historically, they’ve been most vulnerable in Belfast West and South Down … ones to watch in 2024.  

136 candidates are contesting Northern Ireland’s 18 constituencies. Just under a third of candidates (33.1%) are women: a record number at a General Election, marginally ahead of the 2017 field (33.0%). All but one Independent candidate is male. The parties fielding the greatest proportion of men are unionist: TUV 12/14, UUP 14/17, DUP 13/16. Three parties have more women standing than men: Aontú 6/10, Conservative 3/5, Green Party 6/11.

 Narrowing down to look at incumbents, the lowest number of incumbents (14) are seeking re-election of any General Election in the last two decades. In all but one recent election, three or more incumbents have lost their seats on election night.

Fermanagh & South Tyrone is often the most marginal constituency, a battle between leading nationalist and unionist candidates. The SDLP are defending the two largest majorities from the last election: Foyle and Belfast South. As recently as 2017, Foyle was the most marginal seat for Sinn Féin (Elisha McCallion won by 169 votes). Within nationalism, South Down is the most marginal seat. South Antrim is the most marginal constituency within unionism, and is also the constituency that has changed party most often (5 out of 7 elections) since 2000. Belfast East and North Down are the most marginal constituencies between unionism and Alliance. 

The DUP have returned the largest number of MPs to Westminster since 2005, when they took over the lead from the UUP. While Sinn Féin won’t expect to gain any seats at this election, the party’s strategy of not running candidates in four ‘progressive’ races is seen as an attempt to boost the chances of the DUP losing two (or more) seats and make Sinn Féin by default the largest party at Westminster.

Looking at votes rather than seats, the DUP vote share would have to significantly dip for Sinn Féin to score the largest number of votes in this election and be able to claim to have become the largest party at Assembly, local government and now Westminster levels. Sinn Féin didn’t stand in Belfast East, Belfast South and North Down in 2019. So their withdrawal from Lagan Valley in 2024 only knocks around a thousand votes off their potential tally and won’t harm their Northern Ireland-wide share.

Election turnout varies greatly across Northern Ireland’s 18 constituencies. In 2019, the competitive Fermanagh & South Tyrone saw a turnout of 70.13% of eligible voters, while Strangford had the lowest (56.28%). Since 1997, no constituency’s turnout has dipped below 50% at a General Election (though East Antrim came close in 2010 with a turnout of 50.89%). Overall, turnout marked an improvement in the last two Westminster elections. Will that pattern continue this year? By-election turnouts are traditionally lower, with Belfast West sliding down to 37.46% in 2011 and South Antrim only managing 43.02% in 2000.

POLLS

The latest polling conducted by LucidTalk for the Belfast Telegraph highlights the fine margins in this election. In 2001, we had one of the highest rates of seat change, with 7 seats moving between parties. The campaign in 2024 is heading the same way.

There are contests which are incredibly finely balanced. This election will likely depend on who gets their voters out. Northern Ireland last had a July contest in 1945. The impact of postal votes and those away on holiday who do not bother to vote will be something to watch.

Opinion polling indicates the DUP trending downwards; Sinn Féin and Alliance holding their own; with the SDLP and UUP trending up. The impact of the TUV in this race is hard to properly evaluate. If they register 5%+ of the vote in places like South Antrim and East Belfast, they will be a problem for the DUP. Less than that will be a sign of good health for the DU

HOW LONG TO STAY UP?

In 2019 and 2017, North Down was the first seat declared in the election count. Both times the declaration came after 01:00. Unlike the rest of the UK, Northern Ireland has no exit poll to project seats when polls close at 10 o’clock. In 2019, a majority of the seats were declared by 04:00. The last seat declared in 2019 and 2017 was Fermanagh and South Tyrone, which came in at 07:00 and 04:09 respectively.

Either way, it will be the early morning hours before you start seeing results from Northern Ireland’s three count centres, particularly for those constituencies whose ballot boxes have the furthest to travel to reach the Craigavon and Magherafelt count centres.

Spare chart in case you need it …

ENDS…///

Polls Open for High Street Hero Awards 2024

Voting has now officially opened for this year’s High Street Hero Awards, which will showcase the very best independent retailers and high street in Northern Ireland.

You can nominate your favourite business, with polls open until 31st July 2024. It is the perfect opportunity to recognise the independent retailers who are going above and beyond to serve the community and ensure that the local high street is still a thriving place to shop and socialise.

Whether your High Street Hero is your favourite butcher, baker, or barista, they will all be showcased across 13 different categories including convenience store, deli, butcher, off licence and more, with the business who receives the most votes also named Overall Independent Retailer.

A record 12,000 votes were cast last year to determine who was crowned Northern Ireland’s retail elite last year. The Co Antrim town of Ballymoney was named High Street of The Year for 2023 in a tight race with Belfast’s Shankill Road and Newtownards.

This campaign will be promoted in an 18 town and city tour of Northern Ireland throughout this month. It is being promoted on 65 bus T-squares and 20 billboards.

• Go to https://retailni.com/High-Street-Heroes to cast your vote now.

Retail NI Chief Executive Glyn Roberts said:

“Independent retail is the lifeblood of communities right across Northern Ireland and our annual High Street Heroes NI campaign represents the biggest celebration of our thriving local retail sector. Our awards are different - they are a public vote, with no judges and it is local consumers deciding who wins”.

“We’re gearing up for another huge showcase event and a massive celebration of the individual businesses who are the beating heart of our many villages, towns, and cities.

“The awards are open to local retailers right across Northern Ireland – Portaferry to Pomeroy, Newry to Newtownabbey and Strabane to Scarva and will identify those local independent retailers who are taking a lead. Whether it’s a local butcher that’s a cut above the rest or fashion retailer with exceptional style, it’s time to vote for your favourite now.”

The hugely successful High Street Hero NI awards is a joint initiative powered by Retail NI and supported National Lottery operator Allwyn, SSE Airtricity, Roam Local NI and Belfast Live.

The 13 High Street Hero Award categories are:

• Best Butcher

• Best Coffee Shop

• Best Convenience Store

• Best Deli/Bakery

• Best Fashion Retailer

• Best Forecourt

• Best Generalist Retailer

• Best Healthcare Retailer

• High Street of the Year

• Best Homeware Retailer

• Best Off Licence

• Best Independent Retailer Employee

• Overall Independent Retailer

#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: Belfast East

#GE24 Constituency Profile: Belfast East

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

Belfast East is the least densely populated of the four Belfast constituencies. The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies means that Garnerville is now fully in the neighbouring North Down constituency, and the wards of Cregagh, Hillfoot, Merok and Woodstock are fully in Belfast East. Overall the electorate has increased by around 3,800 voters. The changes bring more nationalist votes into the constituency, but nowhere near enough to bring nationalism near a quota and a shot at electing a nationalist MLA at the next Assembly election.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

The DUP have held the Belfast East seat since 1979, with Naomi Long’s Westminster win for Alliance sandwiched between Peter Robinson (1979-2010) and Gavin Robinson (2015-today). DUP vote share has increased over the last two decades – wobbling only in 2010 when Robinson lost to Long – and the large boost to Alliance support has subsequently crushed the UUP into a single figure vote share and third place (when they field a candidate).

Despite coming second in 2015, 2017 and 2019, Long notched up her party’s best overall vote across Northern Ireland in Belfast East in every General Election since 2010 (though colleague Stephen Farry managed an even higher vote share in North Down in 2019). Only three candidates stood in 2019: Robinson, Long and UUP’s Carl McClean.

2019 RESULTS

Gavin Robinson (DUP) won with a vote share of 49.2% and a majority of 1,819 over Alliance’s Naomi Long.

COMMENTARY

Belfast East is the most marginal DUP seat in Northern Ireland and has elected two party leaders to Westminster. Gavin Robinson won a third term in 2019 with the highest DUP vote share of any candidate in Northern Ireland. Yet that only translated into a majority of 1,819 votes. Robinson is facing off Alliance’s Naomi Long for the fourth time. While he’s won every contest to date, 2024 has some new dynamics that make this race unpredictable.

The TUV are back on the ballot for the first time since 2010 with John Ross running for the party. In 2022, Ross stood for the Assembly and picked up 7.1% of the first preference votes. TUV’s inclusion in the race proved critical when Peter Robinson lost this seat to Naomi Long fourteen years ago: David Vance polled 1,856 votes for the TUV while Robinson finished 1,533 votes shy of Long.

Ryan Warren is standing for the UUP. His party hasn’t fielded the same candidate at consecutive General Elections in Belfast East for more than four decades.  

Belfast East has always been a strong constituency for Alliance. The party scored their highest vote share here in the 2022 Assembly poll, and this was the party’s second best performing constituency (44.9%) in 2019.

While other non-unionist parties stepped aside in 2019, this time Long also has competition on the progressive side of the political divide. Councillor Brian Smyth is running for the Greens. Councillor Séamas de Faoite is standing for the SDLP. At the most recent Assembly election the two parties combined took 6.4% of the vote. Their return to the ballot after an absence at the 2019 General Election will add friction to Alliance’s attempt to outpoll the DUP.

Belfast East is one of the four constituencies in which Sinn Féin are standing aside: they polled 3.2% of the first preference votes in the 2022 Assembly election. Ryan North is standing as an independent.

PREDICTION

Too close to call.

#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: Belfast West

#GE24 Constituency Profile: Belfast West

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies means that Derriaghy, Dunmurry, Falls, Shankill and Woodvale now fully fall within Belfast West. Other split wards were transferred out to fully align with other constituencies: Blackstaff and Central (Belfast South), Forth River (Belfast North), and Stoneyford (South Antrim). Overall the electorate has increased by around 6,150 voters, the largest gain (9.4%) in the NI boundary review. The eligible electorate of all four Belfast constituencies are now within 2,000 of each other.

The boundary changes mean that Belfast West is no longer the constituency in which the greatest proportion of its population were brought up in a Catholic community background (73.8% down from 80.1%) and the lowest proportion from a Protestant community background (19.4% up from 16.7%). That mantle passes to Foyle with 76.2% Catholic, 18.7% Protestant, 3.9% None, 1.2% Other.

The reconfiguration of the Belfast West boundaries won’t affect the Westminster result, but will boost unionism’s chances of winning a seat at the next Assembly election (last achieved by Diane Dodds in 2003).

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

Sinn Féin have dominated this seat since Gerry Adams won the poll in 1997 (with 55.9% of the vote). The party’s vote share peaked in 2010 at 71.1% but support fell back to 54.2% in 2015 and 53.8% in 2019. However, five-figure majorities (14,672 in 2019) mean that the seat is not at risk.

People Before Profit’s Gerry Carroll has outpolled the SDLP at every General Election since 2015. The SDLP’s Joe Hendron lost to Adams in 1997 with 38.7% of the vote. However Alex Attwood only attracted 18.9% in 2001, and the party’s share has trended downwards since - losing their last Assembly seat in 2017 – and picking up just 7.7% in 2019’s General Election.

The UUP have not stood at the last two Westminster elections, and the DUP vote has consolidated around 13.5%. 

2019 RESULTS

Paul Maskey (Sinn Féin) won with a vote share of 53.8% and a majority of 14,672 over People Before Profit’s Gerry Carroll.

COMMENTARY

Sinn Féin’s safest seat in Northern Ireland and the only one where a Sinn Féin MP was elected with a majority of the vote. Paul Maskey has been the MP since 2011 and will be seeking to reverse the largest swing away from Sinn Féin (12.9 percentage points) in 2019. They’ll take comfort from the 2022 Assembly and 2023 local government polls where the party recorded strong results in the west of the city: Sinn Féin took 63.7% of first preference votes in 2022, their largest haul in Northern Ireland.

Belfast West is also the best performing constituency for People Before Profit. Currently home to its only MLA, Gerry Carroll is contesting the Westminster seat for the fifth time. At the last General Election, Carroll came second with 16.0% of the vote. People Before Profit had disappointing election results in this area in 2022 (Assembly) and 2023 (local government) and will be keen to show that they have halted any decline.

Returning to the race is the SDLP’s Paul Doherty. He was a bright light for the party last year gaining a council seat in Black Mountain. With boundary changes in the constituency, a significant improvement on his result in this Westminster poll would indicate a pathway for the SDLP to regain the Assembly seat they lost in 2017. 

The near certainty of the result hasn’t discouraged other candidates from standing, with Belfast West having the joint-longest ballot paper in Northern Ireland with 10 candidates (equalled by Strangford). With Frank McCoubrey on the Westminster ballot for the DUP for the fourth consecutive election, his party will also be looking for signs of a boost of pro-union voters due to the boundary changes that might make them competitive for an Assembly seat at the next poll. The evidence that Unionist chances of success are thought to be more viable for future elections can also be seen in the increase in pro-Union candidates running, Ann McClure is in the race for TUV, and Ben Sharkey is standing for the UUP..

Making up the rest of the race is Eoín Millar for Alliance, Ash Jones for the Greens, Gerard Herdman for Aontú, and Tony Mallon as an independent. 

PREDICTION

Sinn Féin hold.

#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: East Antrim

#GE24 Constituency Profile: East Antrim

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies means that there is a realignment between East Antrim and North Antrim. The constituency used to be long and thin, running along the coast. It’s now shorter and squatter, shaped like a terrier dog with its hind legs resting on top of Belfast.

The most northern split ward in East Antrim (Torr Head and Rathlin) now lies fully within North Antrim.  In return, there is a sizeable expansion west, transferring all of Glenravel and the remaining parts of Glenwhirry and Slemish from North Antrim. Jordanstown is now fully within East Antrim (formerly split with South Antrim). A couple of southern split wards were transferred into South Antrim and Belfast North. Overall the electorate has increased by around 5,000 voters, the second largest gain (7.7%) in the NI boundary review. It’s likely that the unionist vote share has reduced, Alliance support will be slightly down, and nationalism has been boosted, which could make the fight for the fifth seat in the next Assembly election a closer race than in 2022.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

Roy Beggs was returned to Westminster for the UUP (defeating the DUP’s Jim Allister) when the modern East Antrim seat was created as part of boundary changes in 1983. The DUP’s Sammy Wilson came within 128 votes of winning the seat in 2001, and succeeded in 2005, beating Beggs with a majority of 7,304.

This was Séan Neeson’s stronghold for Alliance, polling north of 20% of the vote share in 4 out of five elections before he became party leader in 1998. By 2017, Alliance had taken over from the UUP as the runners up in East Antrim, though it was only in 2019 that an Alliance candidate (Danny Donnelly) finally topped Neeson’s 1987 vote tally (8,582, 25.6%). 

2019 RESULTS

Sammy Wilson (DUP) won with a vote share of 45.3% and a majority of 6,706 over Alliance’s Danny Donnelly.

COMMENTARY

Sammy Wilson has been the MP for East Antrim since 2005, and if he is successful at this election, he is on track to beat Roy Beggs’ 22-year term if the DUP stalwart serves more than another three years of the next term. Wilson’s majority of 6,706 is in the middle of the range of seats that the DUP currently hold, making East Antrim an interesting barometer on election night for Unionism’s direction of electoral travel and how motivated their voters are in turning out. East Antrim had the fourth lowest turnout (57.74%) in Northern Ireland in 2019 (Strangford was the lowest at 56.28%). 

John Stewart is running for the UUP. He’s been an MLA since 2017. The battle for second place at recent elections has been interesting in East Antrim. In 2019, the then UUP Leader, Steve Aiken came third behind Alliance. Yet in the 2022 Assembly poll, the UUP came second in terms of first preferences, just ahead of Alliance. Can the UUP recover some of the ground they lost in East Antrim in 2017 and 2019?

Danny Donnelly is standing again for Alliance. He gained an Assembly seat for the party in 2022 and he polled well in 2019 securing 27.3% of the vote. This was a 11.7 percentage point swing to Alliance, the fourth biggest boost to their vote share in Northern Ireland. Donnelly will want to consolidate his position as the main challenger to the DUP.

Matthew Warwick is standing for the TUV. His party did not stand in 2019. In the last Assembly election, the party took 9.1% of the vote. It will be interesting to see what damage Warwick does to the DUP tally on polling day. 

Oliver McMullan is standing for Sinn Féin, a former MLA who polled 5.7% in 2019. Margaret Anne McKillop is standing for the SDLP whose candidate (Angela Mulholland) polled just 2.4% of the votes at the last General Election. Mark Bailey is standing for the Greens: the party attracted 1.8% of the vote in 2019. 

PREDICTION

DUP hold.