#GE24 Constituency Profile: South Down
ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY
The 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies has led to an decrease in the overall electorate of around 7,500 voters, the largest reduction (9.5%) of the NI boundary review. Most of the Strangford ward (which includes Strangford town, Castleward and Bishops Court) has been lost to the Strangford constituency. Despite early proposals, Downpatrick remains in South Down and Ballynahinch wasn’t transferred in from Strangford. However, Drumaness has been transferred out of South Down and the Quoile ward is now split between the two constituencies. South Down has gained all of Loughbrickland (from Newry & Armagh and Upper Bann) and an extra sliver of Ballyward (from Lagan Valley). This reconfiguration will most likely reduce the constituency’s share of nationalist voters and boost support for unionism by 3 to 4 percentage points.
PREVIOUS ELECTIONS
South Down was represented in Westminster by SDLP stalwarts Eddie McGrady and Margaret Ritchie until Sinn Féin’s Chris Hazzard won the seat in 2017 and successfully defended it in 2019. Alliance’s record performance in 2019 (jumping from 3.6% up to 13.9%) ate into both the SDLP and Sinn Féin vote.
2019 RESULTS
Chris Hazzard (Sinn Féin) won with a vote share of 32.4% and a majority of 1,620 over the SDLP’s Micheal Savage.
COMMENTARY
Chris Hazzard is running for the fourth time in a Westminster election and seeking a third term as the Sinn Féin MP for South Down. With a reduced majority in 2019 (down from 2,446 to 1,620), Hazard will be seeking to build upon Sinn Féin’s stronger performance in the 2022 Assembly poll (44.3%) and good showing at the 2023 local government elections.
Once an SDLP stronghold, Colin McGrath is seeking to win back the seat for his party. A local MLA since 2016, he will be aiming to halt the decline the party has faced in recent elections in the constituency. While narrowly behind Sinn Féin in 2019, in the 2022 Assembly election, the SDLP polled their worst ever result in South Down, losing an Assembly seat in the process. (Boundary changes make regaining that second seat all the more difficult at the next Assembly election.)
Alliance’s Andrew McMurray stood in 2017 and captured 3.6% of the vote. His colleague Patrick Brown did much better with 13.9% in 2019, a springboard to securing an Assembly seat in 2022. McMurray is back on the ballot paper this year. He replaced Patrick Brown in the Assembly at the end of April following Brown’s sudden resignation. Alliance – and McMurray – will be keen to cement their gains in South Down. Other parties will be looking to the next Assembly election and hoping for early signs that Alliance’s surge will not hold.
Also in the race is Diane Forsythe for the DUP who was elected as an MLA in 2022. She will expect the boundary changes to work to her advantage and secure third place above Alliance. Former Health Minister and long-serving DUP MLA Jim Wells is standing for the TUV. Micheal O’Loan is running for the UUP. With NI Conservative candidate Hannah Westropp, also in the mix, there is a very crowded unionist field despite just 22.0% of the vote plumping for unionist candidates in 2019. Rosemary McGlone is standing for Aontú.
PREDICTION
Sinn Féin hold.