#GE24 Constituency Profile: Strangford
ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY
The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies has led to a reconfiguration of the border between Strangford and South Down and the overall electorate has increased by over 3,500 voters. An initial proposal to move most of Downpatrick up into Strangford was dropped. The proposal to move Ballynahinch and Kilmore into South Down was also reversed. However, the Drumaness moves into Strangford. Most of the Strangford ward (which includes Strangford town, Castleward and Bishops Court) is now back in South Down having formerly been in South Down. And the Quoile ward is now split between the two constituencies.
Moneyreagh and Saintfield were lost to Belfast South. Crossgar and Killyleagh, Derryboy and Glen now fully lie within Strangford. However, some other formerly split wards have been aligned to neighbouring constituencies: Knockbracken and Carryduff East to Belfast South, Ballygrainey to North Down, Ballyward to South Down.
Overall there is likely to be a pronounced drop in unionist voters, a slight dip in others, and a big boost of support for nationalism. While the change in voter base won’t be so noticeable at Westminster, the shake-up is likely to make nationalism competitive for a seat at the next Assembly election.
PREVIOUS ELECTIONS
For decades, Strangford’s General Election count has been a fight between the largest two parties in unionism. That changed in 2017 when Alliance (14.7%) beat the UUP (11.4%) to second place, with Kellie Armstrong nearly doubling her vote share in 2019 (28.4%).
COMMENTARY
Strangford has been a safe seat for the DUP since it flipped from the UUP in 2001. Jim Shannon took over the seat from Iris Robinson following her resignation in 2010 and has held the seat with comfortable majorities ever since. In recent elections, this has become a seat with big swings. In 2017 there was a big swing to the DUP. Two years later and there was a big swing away from them, the second largest swing away from the DUP (14.8 percentage points) in any constituency. (Lagan Valley saw a 16.4 percentage point drop in DUP support.) The party will be confident that they can retain this seat. Still, it will also be mindful that the boundary changes will put pressure on the combined unionist vote, whose share has fallen at every election since 2001.
Councillor Michelle Guy is running for Alliance at Westminster for the first time. Alliance scored a big swing in 2019 with Kellie Armstrong. Since then they’ve gained an Assembly seat in 2022 with Nick Mathison. Guy will hope that voters transferred in from South Down will help her take more ground for Alliance in Strangford.
The UUP is running Councillor Richard Smart. The UUP once dominated this constituency with John Taylor holding the seat from the constituency's inception in 1983 until he retired from Westminster in 2001. Since then its vote has collapsed by three quarters, polling just 10.7% at the last general election.
The TUV are running their deputy leader and Belfast City Councillor, Ron McDowell. Party colleague Stephen Cooper came close to winning the final Assembly seat in 2022 – he fell short due to a lack of transfers – and the TUV strength in the area together with any NI-wide swing away from the DUP will shrink Jim Shannon’s majority.
Will Polland is the SDLP’s candidate. Strangford was a disappointment for the party in 2022, where they had high hopes for an Assembly gain. Boundary changes bring into play a nationalist seat, and this July poll will be an opportunity to prepare the ground for a serious challenge at the next Assembly Election due in 2027. Sinn Féin will also be running a candidate.
(Published before the candidate nominations closed on 7 June.)
PREDICTION
DUP hold.
