#GE24 Constituency Profile: Lagan Valley
ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY
The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies means that Lagan Valley has been resculpted and now stretches west beyond Ballinderry and Moira to take in Aghagallon (reaching all the way to the Lough Neagh shore) as well as Magheralin from Upper Bann. In the north of the constituency, Derryaghy and Dunmurry now lie fully within Belfast West while no part of Stonyford remains in Lagan Valley (now fully South Antrim). All of Drumbo and the remainder of Belvoir have been transferred to the expanded Belfast South and Mid Down. Dromara now lies fully within Lagan Valley. Despite all these nips and tucks, the constituency’s overall electorate has only increased by around 450 voters. The boundary changes are neutral for unionism, but are likely to increase the percentage of nationalist voters to the detriment of Alliance.
PREVIOUS ELECTIONS
Since its formation as a new seat in 1983, Lagan Valley has only ever had two MPs. When UUP leader James Molyneaux stood down at the 1997 General Election, Jeffrey Donaldson held the seat for the party – albeit with a smaller majority due to the DUP candidate Edwin Poots collecting some of the unionist votes. Resigning from the UUP just before Christmas 2003 and joining the DUP in the new year, Donaldson continued to hold the seat, winning a total of seven Westminster elections and is currently Northern Ireland’s longest serving MP with a large personal vote.
Alliance more than doubled its share of the vote between the 2017 and 2019 General Elections, with Sorcha Eastwood polling 28.8% of the vote in a record showing for the party in Lagan Valley.
2019 RESULTS
Jeffrey Donaldson (DUP) won with a vote share of 43.1% and a majority of 6,499 over Alliance’s Sorcha Eastwood.
COMMENTARY
Lagan Valley is one of the high profile battles between Alliance and the DUP. Upper Bann MLA Jonathan Buckley was nominated to try to hold the former DUP leader’s seat. Buckley was elected to the Assembly in 2017 and was briefly the Chief of Staff to Edwin Poots during his short leadership of the party. Jeffrey Donaldson has been the MP for Lagan Valley since 1997 and had built up a considerable personal vote. Donaldson was one of the top vote getters in the 2022 Assembly election, scoring the second highest number of first preferences of any MLA elected across Northern Ireland. Together with the nature of his departure from politics earlier this year, and the impact on the electorate, calling this seat is difficult.
The main challenger for Lagan Valley is Sorcha Eastwood who is making her second attempt. Having achieved Alliance’s best ever result in the constituency in 2019, the party gained a second Assembly member in Lagan Valley in 2022, and this seat is one of the ones most associated with the Alliance surge. Eastwood would be the first woman, and the first non-Unionist, to win Lagan Valley. Sinn Féin are not standing which opens up the potential for her to tap into their pool of votes.
Robbie Butler is standing for the third time. The UUP deputy leader is a high profile MLA and will be hoping to get a serious lift in his party’s vote to win the seat. UUP came second in the constituency in 2005, 2010 (under the banner of UCUNF), 2015 and 2017. Eastwood then pushed Butler into third place in 2019.
The TUV are in the race with Lorna Smyth. The party polled just under 7% of the vote in the 2022 Assembly election and their share of the vote could be critical in deciding whether the DUP hold the seat or lose it. Historically this has been a very safe seat for the DUP. However, a fractured or depressed unionist vote could allow Eastwood to float to the top.
The SDLP are running Simon Lee (a former Green Party councillor). Patricia Denvir is the candidate for his old party, the Greens.
PREDICTION
Too close to call.