Baker Tilly Mooney Moore: Zero hours knowledge crucial coming into summer months

Writes Brian Lenehan, HR Consultant at Baker Tilly Mooney Moore. Article first published in the Irish News, Tuesday 11 June.

Brian Lenehan, HR Consultant at Baker Tilly Mooney Moore

With the resumption of the Executive and the calling of a UK general election, zero-hour contracts have become a topic of conversation in the world of employment rights once again. With students now beginning their summer breaks from university and entering the world of work, typically in zero-hour friendly sectors such as hospitality and tourism, the importance of employers understanding their obligations and employees understanding their rights is of paramount importance.

A new survey published by Acas found that over three in five workers, 61%, are unaware of the rights of workers on zero-hour contracts. As the Labour Party reportedly rolls back on its pledge to ban these types of contracts and as Minister for the Economy Conor Murphy prepares to implement reform in this area upon his return to office, knowledge of obligations and rights has never been more necessary.

As the name implies, employers who employ staff on zero-hour contracts are not obliged to give any minimum working hours. They are, however, obliged to grant employees statutory employment rights, with no exceptions, and to uphold protected employment rights. The National Minimum Wage must be paid no matters how many hours of work are offered or worked, and employees must be informed as to their rights regarding arrangements such as sick pay, holiday entitlement, and redundancy pay. Crucially, employees must be made aware of how their contract will be ended when the time comes.

Workers who take up work on a zero-hour contract must also understand that there is no guarantee of work when agreeing to such an arrangement. However, this does not mean that their rights as employees are suspended, and they should be aware that their rights around wages and holiday/sick pay remain along with their entitlement to rest breaks and protection from discrimination.

In our cities and our coastal tourism hotspots – be it Portstewart, Ballycastle, or Newcastle – hundreds of students will enter into such arrangements in pubs, restaurants, cafés, and other businesses who enjoy their busiest periods throughout the summer holidays. When executed properly, zero-hours contracts can be a reciprocal beneficial arrangement whereby a business in need of seasonal staff but still exposed to unforeseen disruptions such as adverse weather can cover its staffing needs, while students in need of summer work before returning to university can avail of a short-term employment opportunity.

Reform is coming down the tracks in this area; Labour have abandoned the idea of fully banning the contracts in all cases, but they will still seek reform, and Conor Murphy’s ‘good jobs’ agenda will do similar in Northern Ireland. For employers and employees in the meantime, the knowledge of rights and obligations is the greatest defence against any possible problems.

#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: South Down

#GE24 Constituency Profile: South Down

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

The 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies has led to an decrease in the overall electorate of around 7,500 voters, the largest reduction (9.5%) of the NI boundary review. Most of the Strangford ward (which includes Strangford town, Castleward and Bishops Court) has been lost to the Strangford constituency. Despite early proposals, Downpatrick remains in South Down and Ballynahinch wasn’t transferred in from Strangford. However, Drumaness has been transferred out of South Down and the Quoile ward is now split between the two constituencies. South Down has gained all of Loughbrickland (from Newry & Armagh and Upper Bann) and an extra sliver of Ballyward (from Lagan Valley). This reconfiguration will most likely reduce the constituency’s share of nationalist voters and boost support for unionism by 3 to 4 percentage points. 

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

South Down was represented in Westminster by SDLP stalwarts Eddie McGrady and Margaret Ritchie until Sinn Féin’s Chris Hazzard won the seat in 2017 and successfully defended it in 2019. Alliance’s record performance in 2019 (jumping from 3.6% up to 13.9%) ate into both the SDLP and Sinn Féin vote. 

2019 RESULTS

Chris Hazzard (Sinn Féin) won with a vote share of 32.4% and a majority of 1,620 over the SDLP’s Micheal Savage.

COMMENTARY

Chris Hazzard is running for the fourth time in a Westminster election and seeking a third term as the Sinn Féin MP for South Down. With a reduced majority in 2019 (down from 2,446 to 1,620), Hazard will be seeking to build upon Sinn Féin’s stronger performance in the 2022 Assembly poll (44.3%) and good showing at the 2023 local government elections. 

Once an SDLP stronghold, Colin McGrath is seeking to win back the seat for his party. A local MLA since 2016, he will be aiming to halt the decline the party has faced in recent elections in the constituency. While narrowly behind Sinn Féin in 2019, in the 2022 Assembly election, the SDLP polled their worst ever result in South Down, losing an Assembly seat in the process. (Boundary changes make regaining that second seat all the more difficult at the next Assembly election.)

Alliance’s Andrew McMurray stood in 2017 and captured 3.6% of the vote. His colleague Patrick Brown did much better with 13.9% in 2019, a springboard to securing an Assembly seat in 2022. McMurray is back on the ballot paper this year. He replaced Patrick Brown in the Assembly at the end of April following Brown’s sudden resignation. Alliance – and McMurray – will be keen to cement their gains in South Down. Other parties will be looking to the next Assembly election and hoping for early signs that Alliance’s surge will not hold.

Also in the race is Diane Forsythe for the DUP who was elected as an MLA in 2022. She will expect the boundary changes to work to her advantage and secure third place above Alliance. Former Health Minister and long-serving DUP MLA Jim Wells is standing for the TUV. Micheal O’Loan is running for the UUP. With NI Conservative candidate Hannah Westropp, also in the mix, there is a very crowded unionist field despite just 22.0% of the vote plumping for unionist candidates in 2019. Rosemary McGlone is standing for Aontú.

PREDICTION

Sinn Féin hold.

Eversheds Sutherland: Could PPPs breathe life into infrastructure in Northern Ireland?

Writes Lisa Boyd, Projects Construction and Procurement Partner at Eversheds Sutherland. Article first published in the Belfast Telegraph on Tuesday 11 June.

Lisa Boyd, Projects Construction and Procurement Partner at Eversheds Sutherland

Following the return to Stormont, the Infrastructure Minister for Northern Ireland no doubt had a bulging in-tray with huge demands on a tight budget. With competing interests, increasing delivery costs and budget not keeping up, it seems tough choices may be needed as to which projects are worthy of taking forward. Perhaps some outside-the-box thinking is required as to how we can progress capital projects in the region so as to not delay much needed lifelines to services that are already at breaking point.

Throughout the late noughties, we saw the rapid decline of public-private partnerships (PPPs) private finance initiatives (PFIs). These delivery mechanisms, whereby the public sector enters into partnership with the private sector for the delivery of infrastructure, have fallen out of favour. However, a reintroduction could see more projects break ground sooner rather than later, and PPPs carry with them a number of benefits.

PPPs allow the private sector to assume specific risks associated with project delivery, such as construction, operation, and maintenance. By transferring risks to private partners, the Government can focus on policymaking and oversight, reducing its exposure to financial and operational uncertainties, which is now of grave importance given the funding deficit in Northern Ireland. PPPs can also often expedite project delivery, with private partners bringing efficiency, expertise, and streamlined processes. Timely completion of infrastructure projects benefits communities, businesses, and the economy as a whole.

In Northern Ireland, we have dealt with clients whose large projects are being delayed due to the fact that our public infrastructure is often not up to the standard required to take on new capacity. Often, clients in this position will offer to fund the improvement of such infrastructure in order to speed up the delivery of their own projects, but find that there is no avenue to do so.

In this vein, PPPs can contribute to regional development by targeting investment in areas that need economic stimulation. Infrastructure projects create jobs, boost local economies, and enhance connectivity, promoting balanced growth across Northern Ireland, which is one of Conor Murphy’s priorities as Economy Minister.

Although PPPs have not been proposed of late due to the block grant, the recent budget has shown the serious holes in public finance in Northern Ireland. Couple those holes with the significant infrastructure projects needed for Northern Ireland to reach the next level of economic development – from our wastewater system to our outdated road system – and the question must be asked: could the return of PPPs bring our economy to where it needs to be?

#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: North Antrim

#GE24 Constituency Profile: North Antrim

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies caused a realignment between North Antrim and East Antrim. A significant chunk is shaved off its south eastern side with all of Glenravel and the remaining parts of the formerly split Glenwhirry and Slemish wards moving into East Antrim. The Torr Head and Rathlin ward now lies fully within North Antrim. Overall the electorate has decreased by around 6,000 voters. The new constituency boundaries should deliver a modest boost to unionism at the expense of nationalism.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

North Antrim has been represented by a Paisley in the House of Commons since 1970, with Ian Paisley Jr taking over from his father at the 2010 General Election. The DUP’s dominance – averaging 50% of the vote at the last seven Westminster elections – leaves the other parties scrabbling for second place, swinging between the UUP, TUV and Sinn Féin at recent elections. Jim Allister last stood for Westminster in 2010 (second place with 16.8% of the vote). In 2015, party colleague Timothy Gaston polled a similar 15.7% share, though that dropped to 6.8% in 2017.

2019 RESULTS

Ian Paisley (DUP) won with a vote share of 47.4% and a majority of 12,721 over the UUP’s Robin Swann.

COMMENTARY

North Antrim is currently the DUP’s safest seat in Northern Ireland. Ian Paisley is seeking a fifth term in the House of Commons. His campaign received a personal endorsement from the new Reform UK Leader, Nigel Farage, overshadowing fellow candidate, TUV leader Jim Allister – whose party has an official partnership with Reform UK. The TUV did not stand in North Antrim in 2019, but in the 2022 Assembly poll, they received 21.3% of the vote, their best performance across Northern Ireland. With high profile Robin Swann running for the UUP in neighbouring South Antrim constituency, North Antrim will be an interesting contest between two big unionist figures in a heartland constituency.

Jackson Minford is representing the UUP whose party came second for the first time since 2001 at the last General Election, with Robin Swann gaining 18.5% of the vote. Considering only seats in which the party stood at both elections, that was the largest swing towards the UUP (11.3 percentage points) across Northern Ireland between 2017 and 2019.

Sian Mulholland was co-opted as Alliance’s MLA in North Antrim following the departure of Patricia O’Lynn last year. O’Lynn’s 14.1% vote share in 2019 (up 8.5 percentage points on 2017) was a record result for Alliance in North Antrim.

Philip McGuigan is in the race for Sinn Féin: the local MLA polled well at the Assembly election in 2022 achieving 18.5% of the first preference votes. The SDLP are running Helen Maher (replacing Margaret Anne McKillop who polled 6.7% in 2019 but is back running in East Antrim). Also on the ballot is Ráichéal Mhic Niocaill for Aontú and Independent candidate Tristan Morrow.

PREDICTION

DUP hold.

#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: South Antrim

#GE24 Constituency Profile: South Antrim

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY 

The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies has tidied up some wards that were split across South Antrim and neighbouring constituencies. Ballyduff, Burnthill, Carnmoney, Fairview and  Stonyford now lie fully within South Antrim. Meanwhile the constituency has lost Jordanstown (East Antrim) as well as Ballyhenry, Carnmoney Hill and Hightown (all to Belfast North). Despite all the nips and tucks with four other constituencies, the overall electorate has only decreased by around 250 voters, the smallest adjustment of the NI boundary review. Unionist parties should see a small uptick in support at the expense of voters for nationalists and others.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

With the DUP entering the race for the first time, William McCrea won the South Antrim by-election in 2000 that followed the death of UUP MP Clifford Forsythe. Splitting the unionist vote ended the era of large majorities in South Antrim. Just over eight months later, the UUP took back control with David Burnside serving a term before the seat reverted to the DUP and William McCrea in 2005. McCrea held the seat until it flipped back to the UUP’s Danny Kinahan for a term in 2015 with the majority dipping under 1,000. Two years later, Paul Girvan turned that around and won the seat for the DUP and successfully defended it in 2019. Away from the battle within unionism, over the past two decades, Sinn Féin’s vote share has doubled from 5.5% to over 11%, and Alliance’s vote share leapt from 7.4% in 2017 to 19.1% 2019.

2019 RESULTS

Paul Girvan (DUP) won with a vote share of 35.3% and a majority of 2,689 over the UUP’s Danny Kinahan.

COMMENTARY

Paul Girvan is seeking a third term as MP. He holds the DUP’s second most marginal seat in Northern Ireland. South Antrim is the only Westminster seat that the UUP have managed to win back from the DUP since 2001, and it is the UUP’s top target in the General Election. In a high profile move in a competitive constituency, the former Health Minister and North Antrim MLA Robin Swann is running for the UUP. His big challenge is to move the needle up from the UUP’s 2019 vote share (29.0%) to beat the DUP (35.3% in 2019) and take a seat on the green benches of the House of Commons for the party for the first time since 2017.

Significantly, it’s not a two horse race within unionism. Mel Lucas is standing for the TUV, the party’s first candidate in South Antrim since 2015. Whilst not competitive to win, the size of the TUV vote could prove critical in determining the final outcome. In the 2022 Assembly election, the TUV picked up 9.6% of the first preference votes. 

Also in the race is John Blair for Alliance: he stood in 2019 and won a sizeable gain in the party’s vote to come third ahead of Sinn Féin’s Declan Kearney who is also running again. Roisin Lynch is the SDLP’s candidate for the fourth election in a row. The combined nationalist vote is lower at Westminster elections than Assembly polls. Typically this benefits the UUP. Will this pattern be repeated in this General Election?

The Green Party’s deputy leader Lesley Veronica is also standing along with Aontú’s Siobhan McErlean. 

PREDICTION

Too close to call.

#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: West Tyrone

#GE24 Constituency Profile: West Tyrone

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies means that the overall electorate has increased by around 4,250 voters, marginally benefitting nationalist candidates. Up at its tip, the formerly split ward of Slievekirk now fully lies within West Tyrone. Pomeroy moves into the constituency from neighbouring Mid Ulster.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

West Tyrone is the youngest constituency in Northern Ireland, created in 1997, with the seat initially occupied by the UUP’s William Thompson for a single term. Since then, Sinn Féin have held the seat – Pat Doherty, Barry McElduff, and most recently Órfhlaith Begley – with a majority that has never slipped below 5,000. Nationalist candidates consistently attract more than 60% of the votes. Back in the 1997 and 2001 General Elections, SDLP candidates Joe Byrne and Brid Rodgers were polling around 30% of the vote; SDLP support has subsequently slipped to below 18%.

Independent candidate, hospital campaigner and West Tyrone MLA Kieran Deeney, polled a whopping 11,905 votes (27.4%) in 2005. Since then, the DUP’s Thomas Buchanan has always come second, beating the SDLP into third or fourth place. Alliance’s strong showing in 2019 ate into both the nationalist and unionist vote.

2019 RESULTS

Órfhlaith Begley (Sinn Féin) won with a vote share of 40.2% and a majority of 7,478 over the DUP’s Thomas Buchanan.

COMMENTARY

Sinn Féin’s Órfhlaith Begley has been the MP since the 2018 by-election caused by Barry McElduff’s resignation. She is the first female to hold this position and if she successfully defends her seat, Begley will become only the second incumbent to be re-elected since the constituency’s creation. Sinn Féin has polled above 40% of the vote at every General Election since 2010 in West Tyrone.

Thomas Buchanan is an MLA and is standing for the DUP. He has been a regular on the ballot, and the highest placed unionist candidate, since the DUP began contesting the seat in 2005. Matthew Bell, who chairs the Young Unionists, is running for the UUP; Stevan Patterson is running for the TUV; and Stephen Lynch is the Conservative candidate, standing for the NI Conservatives. This makes 2024 the most crowded field within unionism in the history of West Tyrone.

Local MLA Daniel McCrossan is standing for the fifth time for the SDLP. He attracted the highest vote (7,330) for the SDLP at a Westminster election in West Tyrone since 2001 (when Brid Rodgers polled 13,942). With a split unionist ticket, McCrossan has a good chance of finishing second at this election.

Stephen Donnelly (Alliance) is also running for the fifth time. Donnelly is a local councillor and achieved the best result for the party in the constituency's history in 2019, polling 9.7%. Donnelly was an outside hope for an Assembly seat in 2022 and will be hoping to build a stronger base for a potential run in 2027.

Leza Marie Houston is standing for Aontú.

PREDICTION

Sinn Féin hold

#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: Foyle

#GE24 Constituency Profile: Foyle

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies means that Eglinton transferred from Foyle into neighbouring East Londonderry along with the remainder of Claudy. Slievekirk is now fully aligned to the West Tyrone constituency. Overall the electorate has decreased by around 4,500 voters, and is likely to marginally benefit nationalist candidates.

 

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

This seat has been an SDLP heartland for decades. Foyle has elected an SDLP MP for all but two and a half years of the constituency’s 41 year existence. It has been home to three party leaders: John Hume, Mark Durkan, and current MP Colum Eastwood. Other than Elisha McCallion’s narrow victory for Sinn Féin over Mark Durkan in 2017, there have always been very healthy majorities for the SDLP, whose support topped 50% of the valid vote at the last general election for the first time since 2001.

 

2019 RESULTS

Colum Eastwood (SDLP) won with a vote share of 57.0% and a majority of 17,110 over Sinn Féin’s Elisha McCallion.

 

COMMENTARY

Eastwood is seeking a second term, defending the largest majority in Northern Ireland. (His party colleague Claire Hanna had the second largest majority in 2019 in Belfast South.) On paper, this is the safest seat in Northern Ireland, and 2019 was the biggest win in the constituency's history. Eastwood will hope to repeat the success of his predecessors by winning a second term in the House of Commons.

 

Councillor and former mayor Sandra Duffy is running for Sinn Féin. The former MP Elisha McCallion suffered a heavy defeat in 2019. Duffy will be looking to turn voter sentiment around and pull off a result similar to the 2022 Assembly Election, which saw Sinn Féin outpoll the SDLP in the constituency for only the second time in 20 years.

 

Local MLA and former Junior Minister Gary Middleton is standing for Westminster for the fourth time. The UUP were within a fingertip’s reach of gaining an MLA in Foyle in the 2022 Assembly election, with former DUP councillor Ryan McCready running a strong campaign and coming just 95 votes short of unseating Middleton. McCready is no longer active in politics, and Janice Montgomery is in the race for the UUP. With the boundary changes, it will be interesting to see the combined Unionist vote in the constituency and to what degree there is evidence of tactical voting for the SDLP. 

 

Councillor Shaun Harkin is running for People Before Profit, Rachael Ferguson for Alliance, and John Boyle for Aontú. All three parties had disappointing results in the 2023 local government elections and will want to see signs of recovery. Anne McCloskey is on the ballot as an independent, having run for Aontú back in 2019.

 

PREDICTION

SDLP hold. 

#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: East Londonderry

#GE24 constituency profile: East Londonderry


ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies means that Eglinton transferred in from Foyle as well as the remainder of Claudy which now fully lies within East Londonderry. Overall the electorate has increased by around 2,850 voters, with a slight nudge on the dial towards extra nationalist voters, and fewer unionist and other.

 

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

Gregory Campbell has held East Londonderry for the DUP since beating UUP’s William Ross in 2001. An initial majority of 1,901 votes blossomed into 9,607 by the last general election. Alliance more than doubled their vote between 2017 (2,538, 6.2%) and 2019 (5,921, 15.1%) Westminster elections – just a couple of hundred votes shy of SDLP’s Cara Hunter. However, Alliance’s first preference vote at the 2022 Assembly election saw their fortune plummet to previous levels. Of the seven constituencies in which they ran in 2019, Aontú came closest to keeping their deposit in East Londonderry, just 235 votes short of the 5% target.

 

2019 RESULTS

Gregory Campbell (DUP) won with a vote share of 40.1% and a majority of 9,607 over the SDLP’s Cara Hunter.

 

COMMENTARY

Gregory Campbell is a high-profile member of the DUP and is the second longest serving incumbent in Northern Ireland, If he retains the East Londonderry seat – the DUP’s second safest seat (after North Antrim) – his sixth term in the House of Commons will make him the new longest serving MP across NI’s 18 constituencies.

 

In 2024, the race within unionism is more crowded than in 2019 with the TUV running a candidate – Councillor Allister Kyle – for the first time since 2010 (when former DUP MP William Ross took 7.4% of the votes for his new party). The TUV will be hopeful to build on the 6.7% share they achieved in the 2022 Assembly poll. Glen Miller is running for the UUP: the party dropped to fifth place in 2019.

 

One surprise in 2019 was the strength of the SDLP. Cara Hunter came second with a vote share up by nearly five percentage points, the biggest swing to the SDLP outside of Foyle and Belfast South. The party’s fortunes have dipped since 2019, and Hunter was narrowly re-elected to the Assembly in 2022. 

 

Sinn Féin is running Kathleen McGurk, a local councillor and 2022 Assembly candidate. McGurk was one of the contenders chasing the fifth seat eventually won by the SDLP. This constituency is home to the Minister of Finance, Caoimhe Archibald, and McGurk will be hoping to capitalise on Sinn Féin’s surge across Northern Ireland since 2019. 

 

Richard Stewart is running for the Alliance Party. His colleague and former councillor, Chris McCaw, polled well in 2019 and was in the chase for an Assembly seat in 2022 although his party’s share dropped back. Aontú deputy leader Gemma Brolly is on the ballot as well as the Green Party’s Jen McCahon and Conservative candidate Claire Louise Scull. 

 

PREDICTION

DUP hold. 

Definition of a 'Good Job' outlined by Economy Minister Conor Murphy

Minister for the Economy Conor Murphy MLA has announced the framework by which a ‘Good Job’ will be defined. Minister Murphy had previously stated his desire to create Good Jobs as part of four key priorities of his Economic Vision for Northern Ireland whilst in office as Economy Minister.

At the Labour Relations Agency’s ‘Building a Business Case for Good Jobs’ seminar on Tuesday June 18th, Murphy outlined how the Department for the Economy (DfE) is adopting the Carnegie Framework as its definition of Good Jobs.

The framework identifies 7 key dimensions of job quality:

  • terms of employment

  • pay and benefits

  • health, safety and psychological wellbeing

  • job design and nature of work

  • social support and cohesion

  • voice and representation

  • work/life balance

The Minister stated that his Department will work to progress all 7 dimensions of this “extremely comprehensive definition”. A consultation is also expected to be launched in the coming weeks on the legislation required to create Good Jobs.

Minister Murphy’s definition was referenced during a session of the Committee for the Economy this week, where Dr Lisa Wilson of the Nevin Economic Research Institute gave evidence to and took questions from committee members on Good Jobs.

#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: Newry and Armagh

#GE24 Constituency Profile: Newry and Armagh

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies means that a number of formerly split wards are now totally aligned within Newry & Armagh: Abbey, Damolly and St Patrick’s. Blackwatertown was lost to Fermanagh & South Tyrone. A number of other split wards were fully aligned to neighbouring constituencies (including Derryleckagh, Loughbrickland, Loughgall, Mahon and Mayobridge). Overall the electorate has decreased by around 6,700 voters, the second largest reduction (8.3%) in the boundary review. The changes are likely to boost the number of nationalist voters at the expense of unionism.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

The UUP’s Jim Nicholson was the first MP of the Newry & Armagh constituency. He was the only unionist MP not to retain his seat in the 1986 by-elections caused by the resignation of unionist MPs as an act of protest against the Anglo-Irish Agreement. The SDLP’s Seamus Mallon held the seat until his retirement in 2005 when Sinn Féin took a 41.4% vote share and Conor Murphy was elected. Since then, Sinn Féin have polled between 40.0% and 47.9% of the votes, with Mickey Brady replacing Murphy in 2015.

The most noteworthy recent change in party strength in Newry and Armagh has been the growth of the centre ground, with Alliance improving their vote share seven-fold from 1.2% in 2005 and 2010 to 8.3% in 2019.

2019 RESULTS

Mickey Brady (Sinn Féin) won with a vote share of 40.0% and a majority of 9,287 over DUP’s William Irwin.

COMMENTARY

Mickey Brady, the MP since 2015, is standing down and being replaced by Dáire Hughes, the deputy General Secretary of Sinn Fein and the last Mayor of Newry and Mourne Council (2014/5) before the merge with Down District Council as part of the Review of Public Administration.

After a decade of working behind the scenes, Hughes is returning to front line elected politics. Newry & Armagh is the political base of the current Economy Minister, Conor Murphy, and the current Chair of the Health Committee, Liz Kimmins. Hughes is an unknown electoral quantity due to his long absence from ballot papers which makes this an interesting seat to follow, even though the final result is not in doubt.

Change is afoot on the unionist side of the political fence, with DUP Councillor Gareth Wilson standing for the first time in a Westminster election. Local MLA William Irwin came second in 2017 (24.6% share) and 2019 (21.7%). The TUV are contesting Newry & Armagh for the first time at a Westminster election: their candidate Keith Radcliffe collected a credible 5,407 votes in the 2022 Assembly poll. Sam Nicholson – the son of the constituency’s first MP – is running for a third time for the UUP, having polled 8.3% of the vote in 2019.

A swing to the TUV could push the DUP into third place behind the SDLP. The current Chair of Newry, Mourne and Down District Council, Pete Byrne, is the SDLP’s candidate. He came third in 2019 with 18.6% of the vote.

Helena Young is standing for Alliance, along with Aontú’s Liam Reichenberg, and Conservative candidate Samantha Raynew.

PREDICTION

Sinn Féin hold.