#GE24 Constituency Profile: Mid Ulster
ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY
Mid Ulster is a large and very rural constituency with the Sperrin mountains on one side, the western shore of Lough Neagh on the other, and flat peatlands in-between. It includes the towns of Magherafelt, Maghera, Cookstown and Coalisland.
The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies means that Pomeroy is no longer in Mid Ulster constituency and has moved into West Tyrone. Donaghmore has moved in the opposite direction. A number of other wards (and partial wards) have moved between Mid Ulster and Fermanagh & South Tyrone and Upper Bann. Overall the electorate has decreased by around 400 voters.
PREVIOUS ELECTIONS
This constituency has been home to political heavyweights like William McCrea, Martin McGuinness and Michelle O’Neill.
Sinn Féin have held the seat since the boundary changes that reshaped Mid Ulster with the creation of the West Tyrone constituency. Martin McGuinness displaced William McCrea in 1997 with a high-water mark turnout of 86.0%. The baton was passed to Francie Molloy in the 2013 by-election. While Sinn Féin’s majority dipped against the single independent unionist candidate Nigel Lutton that year, the party continues to dominate over unionist and nationalist rivals.
The SDLP typically come third behind the DUP, and the UUP’s best result in recent history was Sandra Overend’s second place at the 2015 General Election, beating DUP rival Ian McCrea by 853 votes.
2019 RESULTS
Francie Molloy (Sinn Féin) was re-elected with a vote share of 45.9% and a majority of 9,537 over the DUP’s Keith Buchanan.
COMMENTARY
Incumbent Sinn Féin MP Francie Molloy is stepping down at this election. He is being replaced on the ballot by Cathal Mallaghan, a local councillor who has served as chair of the Mid Ulster District Council. Sinn Féin have consistently polled above 40% of the vote in this constituency for the past two decades. In 2019, there was an 8.6 percentage point fall in the party’s Mid Ulster share of the votes, with support shed to Alliance and the SDLP.
The SDLP are fielding local Councillor Denise Johnston for the second time (polling 14.3% of the vote in 2019). 26 year old Padraic Farrell is the Alliance candidate. Mid Ulster remains elusive for Alliance with the party never having success at council or Assembly elections. They’ll be hoping to build on a boost in their numbers at the 2023 Assembly poll to challenge for a council seat in 2028.
Running for the DUP is local MLA Keith Buchanan, standing for the third time. The DUP came second in this seat in 2019 with 24.5% of the vote. This time there will be a TUV candidate on the ticket, Glenn Moore, along with Jay Basra for the UUP, creating further splits in the pro-union vote.
Also on the ballot is Alixandra Halliday (Aontú) and independent John Kelly.
PREDICTION
Sinn Féin hold.