#GE24 Constituency Profile: Foyle
ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY
The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies means that Eglinton transferred from Foyle into neighbouring East Londonderry along with the remainder of Claudy. Slievekirk is now fully aligned to the West Tyrone constituency. Overall the electorate has decreased by around 4,500 voters, and is likely to marginally benefit nationalist candidates.
PREVIOUS ELECTIONS
This seat has been an SDLP heartland for decades. Foyle has elected an SDLP MP for all but two and a half years of the constituency’s 41 year existence. It has been home to three party leaders: John Hume, Mark Durkan, and current MP Colum Eastwood. Other than Elisha McCallion’s narrow victory for Sinn Féin over Mark Durkan in 2017, there have always been very healthy majorities for the SDLP, whose support topped 50% of the valid vote at the last general election for the first time since 2001.
2019 RESULTS
Colum Eastwood (SDLP) won with a vote share of 57.0% and a majority of 17,110 over Sinn Féin’s Elisha McCallion.
COMMENTARY
Eastwood is seeking a second term, defending the largest majority in Northern Ireland. (His party colleague Claire Hanna had the second largest majority in 2019 in Belfast South.) On paper, this is the safest seat in Northern Ireland, and 2019 was the biggest win in the constituency's history. Eastwood will hope to repeat the success of his predecessors by winning a second term in the House of Commons.
Councillor and former mayor Sandra Duffy is running for Sinn Féin. The former MP Elisha McCallion suffered a heavy defeat in 2019. Duffy will be looking to turn voter sentiment around and pull off a result similar to the 2022 Assembly Election, which saw Sinn Féin outpoll the SDLP in the constituency for only the second time in 20 years.
Local MLA and former Junior Minister Gary Middleton is standing for Westminster for the fourth time. The UUP were within a fingertip’s reach of gaining an MLA in Foyle in the 2022 Assembly election, with former DUP councillor Ryan McCready running a strong campaign and coming just 95 votes short of unseating Middleton. McCready is no longer active in politics, and Janice Montgomery is in the race for the UUP. With the boundary changes, it will be interesting to see the combined Unionist vote in the constituency and to what degree there is evidence of tactical voting for the SDLP.
Councillor Shaun Harkin is running for People Before Profit, Rachael Ferguson for Alliance, and John Boyle for Aontú. All three parties had disappointing results in the 2023 local government elections and will want to see signs of recovery. Anne McCloskey is on the ballot as an independent, having run for Aontú back in 2019.
PREDICTION
SDLP hold.