#GE24 Constituency Profile: Belfast West
ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY
The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies means that Derriaghy, Dunmurry, Falls, Shankill and Woodvale now fully fall within Belfast West. Other split wards were transferred out to fully align with other constituencies: Blackstaff and Central (Belfast South), Forth River (Belfast North), and Stoneyford (South Antrim). Overall the electorate has increased by around 6,150 voters, the largest gain (9.4%) in the NI boundary review. The eligible electorate of all four Belfast constituencies are now within 2,000 of each other.
The boundary changes mean that Belfast West is no longer the constituency in which the greatest proportion of its population were brought up in a Catholic community background (73.8% down from 80.1%) and the lowest proportion from a Protestant community background (19.4% up from 16.7%). That mantle passes to Foyle with 76.2% Catholic, 18.7% Protestant, 3.9% None, 1.2% Other.
The reconfiguration of the Belfast West boundaries won’t affect the Westminster result, but will boost unionism’s chances of winning a seat at the next Assembly election (last achieved by Diane Dodds in 2003).
PREVIOUS ELECTIONS
Sinn Féin have dominated this seat since Gerry Adams won the poll in 1997 (with 55.9% of the vote). The party’s vote share peaked in 2010 at 71.1% but support fell back to 54.2% in 2015 and 53.8% in 2019. However, five-figure majorities (14,672 in 2019) mean that the seat is not at risk.
People Before Profit’s Gerry Carroll has outpolled the SDLP at every General Election since 2015. The SDLP’s Joe Hendron lost to Adams in 1997 with 38.7% of the vote. However Alex Attwood only attracted 18.9% in 2001, and the party’s share has trended downwards since - losing their last Assembly seat in 2017 – and picking up just 7.7% in 2019’s General Election.
The UUP have not stood at the last two Westminster elections, and the DUP vote has consolidated around 13.5%.
2019 RESULTS
Paul Maskey (Sinn Féin) won with a vote share of 53.8% and a majority of 14,672 over People Before Profit’s Gerry Carroll.
COMMENTARY
Sinn Féin’s safest seat in Northern Ireland and the only one where a Sinn Féin MP was elected with a majority of the vote. Paul Maskey has been the MP since 2011 and will be seeking to reverse the largest swing away from Sinn Féin (12.9 percentage points) in 2019. They’ll take comfort from the 2022 Assembly and 2023 local government polls where the party recorded strong results in the west of the city: Sinn Féin took 63.7% of first preference votes in 2022, their largest haul in Northern Ireland.
Belfast West is also the best performing constituency for People Before Profit. Currently home to its only MLA, Gerry Carroll is contesting the Westminster seat for the fifth time. At the last General Election, Carroll came second with 16.0% of the vote. People Before Profit had disappointing election results in this area in 2022 (Assembly) and 2023 (local government) and will be keen to show that they have halted any decline.
Returning to the race is the SDLP’s Paul Doherty. He was a bright light for the party last year gaining a council seat in Black Mountain. With boundary changes in the constituency, a significant improvement on his result in this Westminster poll would indicate a pathway for the SDLP to regain the Assembly seat they lost in 2017.
The near certainty of the result hasn’t discouraged other candidates from standing, with Belfast West having the joint-longest ballot paper in Northern Ireland with 10 candidates (equalled by Strangford). With Frank McCoubrey on the Westminster ballot for the DUP for the fourth consecutive election, his party will also be looking for signs of a boost of pro-union voters due to the boundary changes that might make them competitive for an Assembly seat at the next poll. The evidence that Unionist chances of success are thought to be more viable for future elections can also be seen in the increase in pro-Union candidates running, Ann McClure is in the race for TUV, and Ben Sharkey is standing for the UUP..
Making up the rest of the race is Eoín Millar for Alliance, Ash Jones for the Greens, Gerard Herdman for Aontú, and Tony Mallon as an independent.
PREDICTION
Sinn Féin hold.