#GE24 Constituency Profile: Newry and Armagh
ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY
The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies means that a number of formerly split wards are now totally aligned within Newry & Armagh: Abbey, Damolly and St Patrick’s. Blackwatertown was lost to Fermanagh & South Tyrone. A number of other split wards were fully aligned to neighbouring constituencies (including Derryleckagh, Loughbrickland, Loughgall, Mahon and Mayobridge). Overall the electorate has decreased by around 6,700 voters, the second largest reduction (8.3%) in the boundary review. The changes are likely to boost the number of nationalist voters at the expense of unionism.
PREVIOUS ELECTIONS
The UUP’s Jim Nicholson was the first MP of the Newry & Armagh constituency. He was the only unionist MP not to retain his seat in the 1986 by-elections caused by the resignation of unionist MPs as an act of protest against the Anglo-Irish Agreement. The SDLP’s Seamus Mallon held the seat until his retirement in 2005 when Sinn Féin took a 41.4% vote share and Conor Murphy was elected. Since then, Sinn Féin have polled between 40.0% and 47.9% of the votes, with Mickey Brady replacing Murphy in 2015.
The most noteworthy recent change in party strength in Newry and Armagh has been the growth of the centre ground, with Alliance improving their vote share seven-fold from 1.2% in 2005 and 2010 to 8.3% in 2019.
2019 RESULTS
Mickey Brady (Sinn Féin) won with a vote share of 40.0% and a majority of 9,287 over DUP’s William Irwin.
COMMENTARY
Mickey Brady, the MP since 2015, is standing down and being replaced by Dáire Hughes, the deputy General Secretary of Sinn Fein and the last Mayor of Newry and Mourne Council (2014/5) before the merge with Down District Council as part of the Review of Public Administration.
After a decade of working behind the scenes, Hughes is returning to front line elected politics. Newry & Armagh is the political base of the current Economy Minister, Conor Murphy, and the current Chair of the Health Committee, Liz Kimmins. Hughes is an unknown electoral quantity due to his long absence from ballot papers which makes this an interesting seat to follow, even though the final result is not in doubt.
Change is afoot on the unionist side of the political fence, with DUP Councillor Gareth Wilson standing for the first time in a Westminster election. Local MLA William Irwin came second in 2017 (24.6% share) and 2019 (21.7%). The TUV are contesting Newry & Armagh for the first time at a Westminster election: their candidate Keith Radcliffe collected a credible 5,407 votes in the 2022 Assembly poll. Sam Nicholson – the son of the constituency’s first MP – is running for a third time for the UUP, having polled 8.3% of the vote in 2019.
A swing to the TUV could push the DUP into third place behind the SDLP. The current Chair of Newry, Mourne and Down District Council, Pete Byrne, is the SDLP’s candidate. He came third in 2019 with 18.6% of the vote.
Helena Young is standing for Alliance, along with Aontú’s Liam Reichenberg, and Conservative candidate Samantha Raynew.
PREDICTION
Sinn Féin hold.