#GE24 Constituency Profile: Belfast South and Mid Down
ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY
Belfast South is the only constituency to change name as part of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies, acknowledging the significant geographic extension. The constituency has expanded geographically and now takes in the Belvoir, Blackstaff, Carryduff East, Central and Knockbracken wards, as well as Drumbo (formerly Lagan Valley), Moneyreagh and Saintfield (both transferring in from South Down). The split wards of Cregagh, Hillfoot, Merok and Woodstock transferred out into Belfast East, and the Falls ward now fully lies within Belfast West. Overall the electorate has increased by around 1,850 voters. The boundary changes are likely to bring in extra votes for unionists and others with a loss of nationalist voters.
PREVIOUS ELECTIONS
Rev Martin Smyth (UUP) held the seat after winning the by-election caused by the murder of Robert Bradford. When Smyth retired, the SDLP’s Alasdair McDonnell won in 2005 against a split unionist vote and retained the seat until the DUP’s breakthrough in 2017 with Emma Little-Pengelly and the party’s base Belfast South performance to date.
This constituency is often competitive between three or four parties. Alasdair McDonnell won in 2015 with a mere 24.5% of the vote, the smallest winning vote share anywhere in the UK. Running against a smaller field with Greens and Sinn Féin standing aside, Claire Hanna recaptured the seat for the SDLP with a massive 57.2% of the vote in 2019. The Alliance vote dropped by 4 percentage points, the only constituency to see a swing away from Alliance at the last general election.
2019 RESULTS
Claire Hanna (SDLP) won with a vote share of 57.2% and a majority of 15,401 over the DUP’s Emma Little-Pengelly.
COMMENTARY
Claire Hanna is running for a second term in this constituency. Having hoped to capitalise on their 2019 general election success, the party had a disappointing 2022 Assembly result in South Belfast, only getting one candidate elected. In this year’s general election, the incumbent SDLP candidate will benefit from the fact that Sinn Féin are once again choosing not to run in the Westminster poll. Former Green Party leader and Belfast South MLA Clare Bailey has personally endorsed Hanna for a second term. The benefit of incumbency plus the lack of competition on the nationalist side of the political aisle is very good news for Claire Hanna and makes her the clear favourite.
The Greens have reversed course from 2019 when they didn’t stand a candidate. They are seeking to regain ground lost in the 2022 Assembly election, running the outgoing Deputy Lord Mayor Ainé Groogan. This will make a small dent in the majority Claire Hanna received in 2019 (which was the second highest in NI after her party leader Colum Eastwood’s performance in Foyle).
Another high profile challenge will come from the Alliance Party and first term MLA and former Lord Mayor Kate Nicholl. Nicholl was a high profile Assembly gain for the party in 2022. While her party performed poorly in 2019 in South Belfast, they will be hoping changes in the boundaries and the momentum from 2022 will lift the party’s vote in the constituency.
The DUP, which held this seat from 2017 to 2019 are running Councillor Tracy Kelly. Well known in her council district, this is her first constituency-wide battle. She faces minor competition on the unionist side of the political aisle from the UUP’s Michael Henderson (who lost his deposit in 2017 and 2019). The TUV are running a former DUP staffer, Dr Dan Boucher.
(Published before the candidate nominations closed on 7 June.)
PREDICTION
Claire Hanna to be re-elected.
