#GE24 Constituency Profile: West Tyrone
ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY
The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies means that the overall electorate has increased by around 4,250 voters, marginally benefitting nationalist candidates. Up at its tip, the formerly split ward of Slievekirk now fully lies within West Tyrone. Pomeroy moves into the constituency from neighbouring Mid Ulster.
PREVIOUS ELECTIONS
West Tyrone is the youngest constituency in Northern Ireland, created in 1997, with the seat initially occupied by the UUP’s William Thompson for a single term. Since then, Sinn Féin have held the seat – Pat Doherty, Barry McElduff, and most recently Órfhlaith Begley – with a majority that has never slipped below 5,000. Nationalist candidates consistently attract more than 60% of the votes. Back in the 1997 and 2001 General Elections, SDLP candidates Joe Byrne and Brid Rodgers were polling around 30% of the vote; SDLP support has subsequently slipped to below 18%.
Independent candidate, hospital campaigner and West Tyrone MLA Kieran Deeney, polled a whopping 11,905 votes (27.4%) in 2005. Since then, the DUP’s Thomas Buchanan has always come second, beating the SDLP into third or fourth place. Alliance’s strong showing in 2019 ate into both the nationalist and unionist vote.
2019 RESULTS
Órfhlaith Begley (Sinn Féin) won with a vote share of 40.2% and a majority of 7,478 over the DUP’s Thomas Buchanan.
COMMENTARY
Sinn Féin’s Órfhlaith Begley has been the MP since the 2018 by-election caused by Barry McElduff’s resignation. She is the first female to hold this position and if she successfully defends her seat, Begley will become only the second incumbent to be re-elected since the constituency’s creation. Sinn Féin has polled above 40% of the vote at every General Election since 2010 in West Tyrone.
Thomas Buchanan is an MLA and is standing for the DUP. He has been a regular on the ballot, and the highest placed unionist candidate, since the DUP began contesting the seat in 2005. Matthew Bell, who chairs the Young Unionists, is running for the UUP; Stevan Patterson is running for the TUV; and Stephen Lynch is the Conservative candidate, standing for the NI Conservatives. This makes 2024 the most crowded field within unionism in the history of West Tyrone.
Local MLA Daniel McCrossan is standing for the fifth time for the SDLP. He attracted the highest vote (7,330) for the SDLP at a Westminster election in West Tyrone since 2001 (when Brid Rodgers polled 13,942). With a split unionist ticket, McCrossan has a good chance of finishing second at this election.
Stephen Donnelly (Alliance) is also running for the fifth time. Donnelly is a local councillor and achieved the best result for the party in the constituency's history in 2019, polling 9.7%. Donnelly was an outside hope for an Assembly seat in 2022 and will be hoping to build a stronger base for a potential run in 2027.
Leza Marie Houston is standing for Aontú.
PREDICTION
Sinn Féin hold