#GE24 Constituency Profile: Belfast East
ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY
Belfast East is the least densely populated of the four Belfast constituencies. The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies means that Garnerville is now fully in the neighbouring North Down constituency, and the wards of Cregagh, Hillfoot, Merok and Woodstock are fully in Belfast East. Overall the electorate has increased by around 3,800 voters. The changes bring more nationalist votes into the constituency, but nowhere near enough to bring nationalism near a quota and a shot at electing a nationalist MLA at the next Assembly election.
PREVIOUS ELECTIONS
The DUP have held the Belfast East seat since 1979, with Naomi Long’s Westminster win for Alliance sandwiched between Peter Robinson (1979-2010) and Gavin Robinson (2015-today). DUP vote share has increased over the last two decades – wobbling only in 2010 when Robinson lost to Long – and the large boost to Alliance support has subsequently crushed the UUP into a single figure vote share and third place (when they field a candidate).
Despite coming second in 2015, 2017 and 2019, Long notched up her party’s best overall vote across Northern Ireland in Belfast East in every General Election since 2010 (though colleague Stephen Farry managed an even higher vote share in North Down in 2019). Only three candidates stood in 2019: Robinson, Long and UUP’s Carl McClean.
2019 RESULTS
Gavin Robinson (DUP) won with a vote share of 49.2% and a majority of 1,819 over Alliance’s Naomi Long.
COMMENTARY
Belfast East is the most marginal DUP seat in Northern Ireland and has elected two party leaders to Westminster. Gavin Robinson won a third term in 2019 with the highest DUP vote share of any candidate in Northern Ireland. Yet that only translated into a majority of 1,819 votes. Robinson is facing off Alliance’s Naomi Long for the fourth time. While he’s won every contest to date, 2024 has some new dynamics that make this race unpredictable.
The TUV are back on the ballot for the first time since 2010 with John Ross running for the party. In 2022, Ross stood for the Assembly and picked up 7.1% of the first preference votes. TUV’s inclusion in the race proved critical when Peter Robinson lost this seat to Naomi Long fourteen years ago: David Vance polled 1,856 votes for the TUV while Robinson finished 1,533 votes shy of Long.
Ryan Warren is standing for the UUP. His party hasn’t fielded the same candidate at consecutive General Elections in Belfast East for more than four decades.
Belfast East has always been a strong constituency for Alliance. The party scored their highest vote share here in the 2022 Assembly poll, and this was the party’s second best performing constituency (44.9%) in 2019.
While other non-unionist parties stepped aside in 2019, this time Long also has competition on the progressive side of the political divide. Councillor Brian Smyth is running for the Greens. Councillor Séamas de Faoite is standing for the SDLP. At the most recent Assembly election the two parties combined took 6.4% of the vote. Their return to the ballot after an absence at the 2019 General Election will add friction to Alliance’s attempt to outpoll the DUP.
Belfast East is one of the four constituencies in which Sinn Féin are standing aside: they polled 3.2% of the first preference votes in the 2022 Assembly election. Ryan North is standing as an independent.
PREDICTION
Too close to call.