By David McCann, Strategic Political Analyst at Brown O’Connor Public Affairs
The summer is nearly over. MLAs and Ministers will be getting ready for a new Assembly term. Already, we are seeing signs of the political fights and debates that are set to come up between now and Christmas.
How will the dispute over the Nutrient Action Programme be resolved? Will we see progress on the A5 and Casement Park? What will become of the anti-poverty strategy?
Executive Performance
The troublesome issues do not end in the policy sphere, as public perceptions of the Executive are low. Just 35% of people surveyed in the recent LucidTalk poll have a favourable attitude towards the performance of the Executive, which is down three points from the previous survey. The crisis of confidence in government delivery is not unique to the Starmer government; it is also impacting Stormont.
With 11 bills set to continue their progression through the Assembly in the next term, dealing with key issues such as the Mother and Baby Inquiry and Redress Scheme, the Fiscal Council and dilapidation of buildings, the Executive needs more bills on the books and fewer motions on the floor.
Sinn Féin
Each of the four Executive parties has different challenges to deal with over the coming months, and some are more profound than others. Sinn Féin is in the strongest position of all the Executive parties – Michelle O’Neill remains popular with nationalist voters, and the party, with a 26% rating, would be easily returned as the largest party. In fact, on these numbers, the party would hold their 27 seats and be in with a shout of potentially making gains in South Down and Upper Bann.
However, one thing the party needs to keep an eye on is the growing grumbling within sections of Nationalism about the purpose of the power-sharing institutions and whether they can ever work effectively. With three of Sinn Féin’s signature issues facing headwinds, they will need to be wary that they do not get tagged as a party that cannot deliver on key promises.
DUP
For the DUP, there is little upside in this poll, even though some of their ministers and MLAs have received some praise for their performances. At 17%, the party would likely lose a number of seats, particularly in constituencies where it holds more than one MLA. They face the prospect of returning to seat numbers that they have not seen since 1998, when they elected 20 MLAs. In a few weeks, the party will gather for its annual conference, marking the second year of the Gavin Robinson era.
Why does it matter for Unionist voters to stick with the DUP in 2027? The party needs to move the conversation away from the Irish Sea Border towards other issues that can motivate pro-union voters back toward the party.
Alliance Party
Unusually for the past number of years, Alliance is also under pressure. From 2013 to 2022, the party experienced a consistent rise, scoring significant wins and moving from 5th to 3rd place. In this poll, Alliance faces the prospect of losing some Assembly seats for the first time since 1998, albeit not in significant numbers, but enough to say the surge is over.
The party benefited for years from a mantra that attracted voters who were disillusioned with Stormont and wanted something better. Now that Alliance has two ministers at the Executive table, they need to demonstrate that better outcomes are achievable. Andrew Muir is standing his ground on Lough Neagh, but if his plan is blocked, what is Alliance’s plan B? Do they stay in or walk away?
UUP
The UUP continued to struggle at 11%, behind the TUV, with the prominence of holding the Health Ministry doing nothing to improve their fortunes, and the knowledge that their leader might not be around for much longer. The UUP’s conference in October will be a key event to watch, as it will reveal the party's direction ahead of the 2027 Assembly Election.
They say the only poll that matters is on election day, but all the parties will be taking stock from this one. As a new Assembly term begins and party conferences get underway, they will all be using this poll to decide their footing in the months ahead.