#GE24 Constituency Profile: North Antrim
ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY
The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies caused a realignment between North Antrim and East Antrim. A significant chunk is shaved off its south eastern side with all of Glenravel and the remaining parts of the formerly split Glenwhirry and Slemish wards moving into East Antrim. The Torr Head and Rathlin ward now lies fully within North Antrim. Overall the electorate has decreased by around 6,000 voters. The new constituency boundaries should deliver a modest boost to unionism at the expense of nationalism.
PREVIOUS ELECTIONS
North Antrim has been represented by a Paisley in the House of Commons since 1970, with Ian Paisley Jr taking over from his father at the 2010 General Election. The DUP’s dominance – averaging 50% of the vote at the last seven Westminster elections – leaves the other parties scrabbling for second place, swinging between the UUP, TUV and Sinn Féin at recent elections. Jim Allister last stood for Westminster in 2010 (second place with 16.8% of the vote). In 2015, party colleague Timothy Gaston polled a similar 15.7% share, though that dropped to 6.8% in 2017.
2019 RESULTS
Ian Paisley (DUP) won with a vote share of 47.4% and a majority of 12,721 over the UUP’s Robin Swann.
COMMENTARY
North Antrim is currently the DUP’s safest seat in Northern Ireland. Ian Paisley is seeking a fifth term in the House of Commons. His campaign received a personal endorsement from the new Reform UK Leader, Nigel Farage, overshadowing fellow candidate, TUV leader Jim Allister – whose party has an official partnership with Reform UK. The TUV did not stand in North Antrim in 2019, but in the 2022 Assembly poll, they received 21.3% of the vote, their best performance across Northern Ireland. With high profile Robin Swann running for the UUP in neighbouring South Antrim constituency, North Antrim will be an interesting contest between two big unionist figures in a heartland constituency.
Jackson Minford is representing the UUP whose party came second for the first time since 2001 at the last General Election, with Robin Swann gaining 18.5% of the vote. Considering only seats in which the party stood at both elections, that was the largest swing towards the UUP (11.3 percentage points) across Northern Ireland between 2017 and 2019.
Sian Mulholland was co-opted as Alliance’s MLA in North Antrim following the departure of Patricia O’Lynn last year. O’Lynn’s 14.1% vote share in 2019 (up 8.5 percentage points on 2017) was a record result for Alliance in North Antrim.
Philip McGuigan is in the race for Sinn Féin: the local MLA polled well at the Assembly election in 2022 achieving 18.5% of the first preference votes. The SDLP are running Helen Maher (replacing Margaret Anne McKillop who polled 6.7% in 2019 but is back running in East Antrim). Also on the ballot is Ráichéal Mhic Niocaill for Aontú and Independent candidate Tristan Morrow.
PREDICTION
DUP hold.