#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Special

#GE24 Brown O’Connor Communications General Election Special

We’ve made it, today is General Election Eve. Tomorrow, voters will head to the polls in the first July General Election since 1945. Whilst the result in Great Britain may seem inevitable, the same cannot be said for the contests taking place in Northern Ireland, where this is arguably the General Election with the most seats in play for quite some time.

Here, the eligible electorate is 1,363,961, an increase of 69,990 voters from the last General Election in 2019. This is also the first election in Northern Ireland to take place under the new constituency boundaries following the 2023 review.

In what has been a somewhat lacklustre campaign, the stakes are high for Northern Ireland’s main parties. Going into this election, the DUP hold 8 seats, Sinn Féin 7, the SDLP 2, and Alliance 1.

Will the DUP be able to hold on to their 8 seats, or can Sinn Féin complete the hat-trick and become the largest party at Westminster level, to go along with their recent Assembly and Council Election triumphs?

Will Colum Eastwood’s SDLP see their two MPs re-elected and can Alliance continue their 2019 surge by increasing (and maintaining) their presence at Westminster?

Finally, can the UUP return to the green benches after an absence of 5 years and how will the TUV fare after not standing in 2019?

All of these questions will be answered by the early hours of Friday morning, after all the votes have been counted in the three count centres across Northern Ireland.

Over the last number of weeks, we have been previewing each of Northern Ireland’s 18 constituencies and the races within them. Before we head to the polls tomorrow, here is a summary of all 18, with links to our blog where you can find more detailed previews for each constituency, as well as our prediction of the result in each of them.

 

Belfast East – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Too Close to Call.

 

Belfast North – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Sinn Féin Hold.

 

Belfast South and Mid Down – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: SDLP Hold.

 

Belfast West – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Sinn Féin Hold.

 

East Antrim – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Conor Prediction: DUP Hold.

 

East Londonderry – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: DUP Hold.

 

Fermanagh and South Tyrone – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Sinn Féin Hold.

 

Foyle – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: SDLP Hold.

 

Lagan Valley – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Too Close to Call.

 

Mid Ulster – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Sinn Féin Hold.

 

Newry and Armagh – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Sinn Féin Hold.

 

North Antrim – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: DUP Hold.

 

North Down – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Too Close to Call.

 

South Antrim – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Too Close to Call.

 

South Down – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Sinn Féin Hold.

 

Strangford – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: DUP Hold.

 

West Tyrone – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Sinn Féin Hold.

 

Upper Bann – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: DUP Hold.

#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election 2024 Summary

Brown O’Connor Communications General Election 2024 Summary

·       One of the most unpredictable elections in recent times. 

·       As many as six seats could change hands. 

·       First July election since 1945.

·       First Westminster election with Stormont up and running since 2015. 

 

 2019 RESULTS

In the 2019 General Election, four seats changed hands. Back in 2001, seven seats changed party hands; in 2010, just two.

In 2019, the DUP lost two seats but remained the largest party with 8 MPs elected to Westminster. Sinn Féin stayed on 7 seats, despite losing Foyle (to the SDLP) and winning Belfast North (from the DUP). Both largest parties lost vote share between 2017 and 2019.

The SDLP won Belfast South (from the DUP) and Foyle, returning to the House of Commons benches after an absence of 2 years. Alliance won the North Down seat vacated by independent Sylvia Hermon. Overall, their vote share more than doubled, and was at a higher level than the SDLP. 

Five new MPs headed over to London: Colum Eastwood (SDLP), Stephen Farry (Alliance), John Finucane (Sinn Féin), Claire Hanna (SDLP) and Carla Lockhart (DUP, taking over from David Simpson). Sinn Féin’s Órfhlaith Begley kept the West Tyrone seat she won in the 2018 by-election following Barry McElduff’s resignation.

 

BOUNDARY REVIEW

Before the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies, constituencies ranged from just shy of 65,000 (East Antrim) to 83,000 (Upper Bann). The adjustments, transferring wards and sometimes parts of wards in and out of neighbouring constituencies, has narrowed the gap between the smallest (Belfast East, just shy of 73,000) and the largest (Lagan Valley, now with just over 82,000).

The results of the boundary review won’t have a major effect on the 2024 General Election. However, the parties will be examining the results and tally information captured during the verification stage of the count to see how it affects their chances at picking up fourth or fifth seats in the next Assembly poll. 



COMMENTARY

Until the 4 July poll, there will be no proper evidence of how voters will really behave. Opinion polls trying to tease out their potential behaviour beforehand may in turn sway their actions on the day of the election. Voters can also use pollsters to send a message to the parties they normally support by suggesting bold action, but are less adventurous in the polling station. Until the real poll, all other information, campaigning, rumours and speculation becomes part of a giant feedback loop.

Four ‘known unknowns’ make many of the seats hard to call. 

  • Turnout for the DUP - if some voters unhappy with the DUP strategy around the NI Protocol stay at home and abstain from the election rather than vote for another party, this will benefit the UUP’s Robin Swann (South Antrim), as well as Alliance’s Stephen Farry (North Down) and Sorcha Eastwood (Lagan Valley).

  • Will Sinn Féin voters turn out and vote for other parties in the four constituencies in which there is no Sinn Féin candidate, or will they stay at home?

  • The level of tactical voting will decide many seats - Northern Ireland voters are quite savvy, they know that plumping their support for a candidate likely to finish in third place or below will not affect the overall result. Many will want to record their support for their favourite party or candidate. But how many will see their constituency as a two-horse race and vote for the perceived top two candidates? The level of support for the TUV and ‘underdog’ UUP candidates like Tim Collins and Robbie Butler could be crucial in South Antrim, North Down and Lagan Valley.

  • Have Alliance peaked? Or will their support increase again? The Alliance surge was obvious at the 2019 General Election. Their vote share more than doubled in 12 constituencies. Opinion polling does not suggest significant further growth. But in the privacy of the polling station, voters may surprise those making predictions!

The only party not to lose a deposit in the 2019 General Election was the DUP. In fact, looking back as far as 1997, the DUP has always retained its deposit in every Westminster election/by-election. Historically, they’ve been most vulnerable in Belfast West and South Down … ones to watch in 2024.  

136 candidates are contesting Northern Ireland’s 18 constituencies. Just under a third of candidates (33.1%) are women: a record number at a General Election, marginally ahead of the 2017 field (33.0%). All but one Independent candidate is male. The parties fielding the greatest proportion of men are unionist: TUV 12/14, UUP 14/17, DUP 13/16. Three parties have more women standing than men: Aontú 6/10, Conservative 3/5, Green Party 6/11.

 Narrowing down to look at incumbents, the lowest number of incumbents (14) are seeking re-election of any General Election in the last two decades. In all but one recent election, three or more incumbents have lost their seats on election night.

Fermanagh & South Tyrone is often the most marginal constituency, a battle between leading nationalist and unionist candidates. The SDLP are defending the two largest majorities from the last election: Foyle and Belfast South. As recently as 2017, Foyle was the most marginal seat for Sinn Féin (Elisha McCallion won by 169 votes). Within nationalism, South Down is the most marginal seat. South Antrim is the most marginal constituency within unionism, and is also the constituency that has changed party most often (5 out of 7 elections) since 2000. Belfast East and North Down are the most marginal constituencies between unionism and Alliance. 

The DUP have returned the largest number of MPs to Westminster since 2005, when they took over the lead from the UUP. While Sinn Féin won’t expect to gain any seats at this election, the party’s strategy of not running candidates in four ‘progressive’ races is seen as an attempt to boost the chances of the DUP losing two (or more) seats and make Sinn Féin by default the largest party at Westminster.

Looking at votes rather than seats, the DUP vote share would have to significantly dip for Sinn Féin to score the largest number of votes in this election and be able to claim to have become the largest party at Assembly, local government and now Westminster levels. Sinn Féin didn’t stand in Belfast East, Belfast South and North Down in 2019. So their withdrawal from Lagan Valley in 2024 only knocks around a thousand votes off their potential tally and won’t harm their Northern Ireland-wide share.

Election turnout varies greatly across Northern Ireland’s 18 constituencies. In 2019, the competitive Fermanagh & South Tyrone saw a turnout of 70.13% of eligible voters, while Strangford had the lowest (56.28%). Since 1997, no constituency’s turnout has dipped below 50% at a General Election (though East Antrim came close in 2010 with a turnout of 50.89%). Overall, turnout marked an improvement in the last two Westminster elections. Will that pattern continue this year? By-election turnouts are traditionally lower, with Belfast West sliding down to 37.46% in 2011 and South Antrim only managing 43.02% in 2000.

 

POLLS

The latest polling conducted by LucidTalk for the Belfast Telegraph highlights the fine margins in this election. In 2001, we had one of the highest rates of seat change, with 7 seats moving between parties. The campaign in 2024 is heading the same way.

There are contests which are incredibly finely balanced. This election will likely depend on who gets their voters out. Northern Ireland last had a July contest in 1945. The impact of postal votes and those away on holiday who do not bother to vote will be something to watch.

Opinion polling indicates the DUP trending downwards; Sinn Féin and Alliance holding their own; with the SDLP and UUP trending up. The impact of the TUV in this race is hard to properly evaluate. If they register 5%+ of the vote in places like South Antrim and East Belfast, they will be a problem for the DUP. Less than that will be a sign of good health for the DU

 

HOW LONG TO STAY UP?

In 2019 and 2017, North Down was the first seat declared in the election count. Both times the declaration came after 01:00. Unlike the rest of the UK, Northern Ireland has no exit poll to project seats when polls close at 10 o’clock. In 2019, a majority of the seats were declared by 04:00. The last seat declared in 2019 and 2017 was Fermanagh and South Tyrone, which came in at 07:00 and 04:09 respectively.

Either way, it will be the early morning hours before you start seeing results from Northern Ireland’s three count centres, particularly for those constituencies whose ballot boxes have the furthest to travel to reach the Craigavon and Magherafelt count centres.

Spare chart in case you need it …

ENDS…///

Polls Open for High Street Hero Awards 2024

Voting has now officially opened for this year’s High Street Hero Awards, which will showcase the very best independent retailers and high street in Northern Ireland.

You can nominate your favourite business, with polls open until 31st July 2024. It is the perfect opportunity to recognise the independent retailers who are going above and beyond to serve the community and ensure that the local high street is still a thriving place to shop and socialise.

Whether your High Street Hero is your favourite butcher, baker, or barista, they will all be showcased across 13 different categories including convenience store, deli, butcher, off licence and more, with the business who receives the most votes also named Overall Independent Retailer.

A record 12,000 votes were cast last year to determine who was crowned Northern Ireland’s retail elite last year. The Co Antrim town of Ballymoney was named High Street of The Year for 2023 in a tight race with Belfast’s Shankill Road and Newtownards.

This campaign will be promoted in an 18 town and city tour of Northern Ireland throughout this month. It is being promoted on 65 bus T-squares and 20 billboards.

Retail NI Chief Executive Glyn Roberts said:

“Independent retail is the lifeblood of communities right across Northern Ireland and our annual High Street Heroes NI campaign represents the biggest celebration of our thriving local retail sector. Our awards are different - they are a public vote, with no judges and it is local consumers deciding who wins”.

“We’re gearing up for another huge showcase event and a massive celebration of the individual businesses who are the beating heart of our many villages, towns, and cities.

“The awards are open to local retailers right across Northern Ireland – Portaferry to Pomeroy, Newry to Newtownabbey and Strabane to Scarva and will identify those local independent retailers who are taking a lead. Whether it’s a local butcher that’s a cut above the rest or fashion retailer with exceptional style, it’s time to vote for your favourite now.”

The hugely successful High Street Hero NI awards is a joint initiative powered by Retail NI and supported National Lottery operator Allwyn, SSE Airtricity, Roam Local NI and Belfast Live.

The 13 High Street Hero Award categories are:

  • Best Butcher

  • Best Coffee Shop

  • Best Convenience Store

  • Best Deli/Bakery

  • Best Fashion Retailer

  • Best Forecourt

  • Best Generalist Retailer

  • Best Healthcare Retailer

  • High Street of the Year

  • Best Homeware Retailer

  • Best Off Licence

  • Best Independent Retailer Employee

  • Overall Independent Retailer

#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: Belfast East

#GE24 Constituency Profile: Belfast East

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

Belfast East is the least densely populated of the four Belfast constituencies. The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies means that Garnerville is now fully in the neighbouring North Down constituency, and the wards of Cregagh, Hillfoot, Merok and Woodstock are fully in Belfast East. Overall the electorate has increased by around 3,800 voters. The changes bring more nationalist votes into the constituency, but nowhere near enough to bring nationalism near a quota and a shot at electing a nationalist MLA at the next Assembly election.

 

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

The DUP have held the Belfast East seat since 1979, with Naomi Long’s Westminster win for Alliance sandwiched between Peter Robinson (1979-2010) and Gavin Robinson (2015-today). DUP vote share has increased over the last two decades – wobbling only in 2010 when Robinson lost to Long – and the large boost to Alliance support has subsequently crushed the UUP into a single figure vote share and third place (when they field a candidate).

Despite coming second in 2015, 2017 and 2019, Long notched up her party’s best overall vote across Northern Ireland in Belfast East in every General Election since 2010 (though colleague Stephen Farry managed an even higher vote share in North Down in 2019). Only three candidates stood in 2019: Robinson, Long and UUP’s Carl McClean.

 

2019 RESULTS

Gavin Robinson (DUP) won with a vote share of 49.2% and a majority of 1,819 over Alliance’s Naomi Long.

 

COMMENTARY

Belfast East is the most marginal DUP seat in Northern Ireland and has elected two party leaders to Westminster. Gavin Robinson won a third term in 2019 with the highest DUP vote share of any candidate in Northern Ireland. Yet that only translated into a majority of 1,819 votes. Robinson is facing off Alliance’s Naomi Long for the fourth time. While he’s won every contest to date, 2024 has some new dynamics that make this race unpredictable.

The TUV are back on the ballot for the first time since 2010 with John Ross running for the party. In 2022, Ross stood for the Assembly and picked up 7.1% of the first preference votes. TUV’s inclusion in the race proved critical when Peter Robinson lost this seat to Naomi Long fourteen years ago: David Vance polled 1,856 votes for the TUV while Robinson finished 1,533 votes shy of Long.

Ryan Warren is standing for the UUP. His party hasn’t fielded the same candidate at consecutive General Elections in Belfast East for more than four decades.  

Belfast East has always been a strong constituency for Alliance. The party scored their highest vote share here in the 2022 Assembly poll, and this was the party’s second best performing constituency (44.9%) in 2019.

While other non-unionist parties stepped aside in 2019, this time Long also has competition on the progressive side of the political divide. Councillor Brian Smyth is running for the Greens. Councillor Séamas de Faoite is standing for the SDLP. At the most recent Assembly election the two parties combined took 6.4% of the vote. Their return to the ballot after an absence at the 2019 General Election will add friction to Alliance’s attempt to outpoll the DUP.

Belfast East is one of the four constituencies in which Sinn Féin are standing aside: they polled 3.2% of the first preference votes in the 2022 Assembly election. Ryan North is standing as an independent.

 

PREDICTION

Too close to call.

#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: Belfast West

#GE24 Constituency Profile: Belfast West

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies means that Derriaghy, Dunmurry, Falls, Shankill and Woodvale now fully fall within Belfast West. Other split wards were transferred out to fully align with other constituencies: Blackstaff and Central (Belfast South), Forth River (Belfast North), and Stoneyford (South Antrim). Overall the electorate has increased by around 6,150 voters, the largest gain (9.4%) in the NI boundary review. The eligible electorate of all four Belfast constituencies are now within 2,000 of each other.

The boundary changes mean that Belfast West is no longer the constituency in which the greatest proportion of its population were brought up in a Catholic community background (73.8% down from 80.1%) and the lowest proportion from a Protestant community background (19.4% up from 16.7%). That mantle passes to Foyle with 76.2% Catholic, 18.7% Protestant, 3.9% None, 1.2% Other.

The reconfiguration of the Belfast West boundaries won’t affect the Westminster result, but will boost unionism’s chances of winning a seat at the next Assembly election (last achieved by Diane Dodds in 2003).

 

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

Sinn Féin have dominated this seat since Gerry Adams won the poll in 1997 (with 55.9% of the vote). The party’s vote share peaked in 2010 at 71.1% but support fell back to 54.2% in 2015 and 53.8% in 2019. However, five-figure majorities (14,672 in 2019) mean that the seat is not at risk.

People Before Profit’s Gerry Carroll has outpolled the SDLP at every General Election since 2015. The SDLP’s Joe Hendron lost to Adams in 1997 with 38.7% of the vote. However Alex Attwood only attracted 18.9% in 2001, and the party’s share has trended downwards since - losing their last Assembly seat in 2017 – and picking up just 7.7% in 2019’s General Election.

The UUP have not stood at the last two Westminster elections, and the DUP vote has consolidated around 13.5%. 

 

2019 RESULTS

Paul Maskey (Sinn Féin) won with a vote share of 53.8% and a majority of 14,672 over People Before Profit’s Gerry Carroll.

 

COMMENTARY

Sinn Féin’s safest seat in Northern Ireland and the only one where a Sinn Féin MP was elected with a majority of the vote. Paul Maskey has been the MP since 2011 and will be seeking to reverse the largest swing away from Sinn Féin (12.9 percentage points) in 2019. They’ll take comfort from the 2022 Assembly and 2023 local government polls where the party recorded strong results in the west of the city: Sinn Féin took 63.7% of first preference votes in 2022, their largest haul in Northern Ireland.

Belfast West is also the best performing constituency for People Before Profit. Currently home to its only MLA, Gerry Carroll is contesting the Westminster seat for the fifth time. At the last General Election, Carroll came second with 16.0% of the vote. People Before Profit had disappointing election results in this area in 2022 (Assembly) and 2023 (local government) and will be keen to show that they have halted any decline.

Returning to the race is the SDLP’s Paul Doherty. He was a bright light for the party last year gaining a council seat in Black Mountain. With boundary changes in the constituency, a significant improvement on his result in this Westminster poll would indicate a pathway for the SDLP to regain the Assembly seat they lost in 2017. 

The near certainty of the result hasn’t discouraged other candidates from standing, with Belfast West having the joint-longest ballot paper in Northern Ireland with 10 candidates (equalled by Strangford). With Frank McCoubrey on the Westminster ballot for the DUP for the fourth consecutive election, his party will also be looking for signs of a boost of pro-union voters due to the boundary changes that might make them competitive for an Assembly seat at the next poll. The evidence that Unionist chances of success are thought to be more viable for future elections can also be seen in the increase in pro-Union candidates running, Ann McClure is in the race for TUV, and Ben Sharkey is standing for the UUP..

Making up the rest of the race is Eoín Millar for Alliance, Ash Jones for the Greens, Gerard Herdman for Aontú, and Tony Mallon as an independent. 

 

PREDICTION

Sinn Féin hold.

#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: East Antrim

#GE24 Constituency Profile: East Antrim

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies means that there is a realignment between East Antrim and North Antrim. The constituency used to be long and thin, running along the coast. It’s now shorter and squatter, shaped like a terrier dog with its hind legs resting on top of Belfast.

The most northern split ward in East Antrim (Torr Head and Rathlin) now lies fully within North Antrim.  In return, there is a sizeable expansion west, transferring all of Glenravel and the remaining parts of Glenwhirry and Slemish from North Antrim. Jordanstown is now fully within East Antrim (formerly split with South Antrim). A couple of southern split wards were transferred into South Antrim and Belfast North. Overall the electorate has increased by around 5,000 voters, the second largest gain (7.7%) in the NI boundary review. It’s likely that the unionist vote share has reduced, Alliance support will be slightly down, and nationalism has been boosted, which could make the fight for the fifth seat in the next Assembly election a closer race than in 2022.

 

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

Roy Beggs was returned to Westminster for the UUP (defeating the DUP’s Jim Allister) when the modern East Antrim seat was created as part of boundary changes in 1983. The DUP’s Sammy Wilson came within 128 votes of winning the seat in 2001, and succeeded in 2005, beating Beggs with a majority of 7,304.

This was Séan Neeson’s stronghold for Alliance, polling north of 20% of the vote share in 4 out of five elections before he became party leader in 1998. By 2017, Alliance had taken over from the UUP as the runners up in East Antrim, though it was only in 2019 that an Alliance candidate (Danny Donnelly) finally topped Neeson’s 1987 vote tally (8,582, 25.6%). 

 

2019 RESULTS

Sammy Wilson (DUP) won with a vote share of 45.3% and a majority of 6,706 over Alliance’s Danny Donnelly.

 

COMMENTARY

Sammy Wilson has been the MP for East Antrim since 2005, and if he is successful at this election, he is on track to beat Roy Beggs’ 22-year term if the DUP stalwart serves more than another three years of the next term. Wilson’s majority of 6,706 is in the middle of the range of seats that the DUP currently hold, making East Antrim an interesting barometer on election night for Unionism’s direction of electoral travel and how motivated their voters are in turning out. East Antrim had the fourth lowest turnout (57.74%) in Northern Ireland in 2019 (Strangford was the lowest at 56.28%). 

John Stewart is running for the UUP. He’s been an MLA since 2017. The battle for second place at recent elections has been interesting in East Antrim. In 2019, the then UUP Leader, Steve Aiken came third behind Alliance. Yet in the 2022 Assembly poll, the UUP came second in terms of first preferences, just ahead of Alliance. Can the UUP recover some of the ground they lost in East Antrim in 2017 and 2019?

Danny Donnelly is standing again for Alliance. He gained an Assembly seat for the party in 2022 and he polled well in 2019 securing 27.3% of the vote. This was a 11.7 percentage point swing to Alliance, the fourth biggest boost to their vote share in Northern Ireland. Donnelly will want to consolidate his position as the main challenger to the DUP.

Matthew Warwick is standing for the TUV. His party did not stand in 2019. In the last Assembly election, the party took 9.1% of the vote. It will be interesting to see what damage Warwick does to the DUP tally on polling day. 

Oliver McMullan is standing for Sinn Féin, a former MLA who polled 5.7% in 2019. Margaret Anne McKillop is standing for the SDLP whose candidate (Angela Mulholland) polled just 2.4% of the votes at the last General Election. Mark Bailey is standing for the Greens: the party attracted 1.8% of the vote in 2019. 

 

PREDICTION

DUP hold.

Baker Tilly Mooney Moore: Zero hours knowledge crucial coming into summer months

Writes Brian Lenehan, HR Consultant at Baker Tilly Mooney Moore. Article first published in the Irish News, Tuesday 11 June.

Brian Lenehan, HR Consultant at Baker Tilly Mooney Moore

With the resumption of the Executive and the calling of a UK general election, zero-hour contracts have become a topic of conversation in the world of employment rights once again. With students now beginning their summer breaks from university and entering the world of work, typically in zero-hour friendly sectors such as hospitality and tourism, the importance of employers understanding their obligations and employees understanding their rights is of paramount importance.

A new survey published by Acas found that over three in five workers, 61%, are unaware of the rights of workers on zero-hour contracts. As the Labour Party reportedly rolls back on its pledge to ban these types of contracts and as Minister for the Economy Conor Murphy prepares to implement reform in this area upon his return to office, knowledge of obligations and rights has never been more necessary.

As the name implies, employers who employ staff on zero-hour contracts are not obliged to give any minimum working hours. They are, however, obliged to grant employees statutory employment rights, with no exceptions, and to uphold protected employment rights. The National Minimum Wage must be paid no matters how many hours of work are offered or worked, and employees must be informed as to their rights regarding arrangements such as sick pay, holiday entitlement, and redundancy pay. Crucially, employees must be made aware of how their contract will be ended when the time comes.

Workers who take up work on a zero-hour contract must also understand that there is no guarantee of work when agreeing to such an arrangement. However, this does not mean that their rights as employees are suspended, and they should be aware that their rights around wages and holiday/sick pay remain along with their entitlement to rest breaks and protection from discrimination.

In our cities and our coastal tourism hotspots – be it Portstewart, Ballycastle, or Newcastle – hundreds of students will enter into such arrangements in pubs, restaurants, cafés, and other businesses who enjoy their busiest periods throughout the summer holidays. When executed properly, zero-hours contracts can be a reciprocal beneficial arrangement whereby a business in need of seasonal staff but still exposed to unforeseen disruptions such as adverse weather can cover its staffing needs, while students in need of summer work before returning to university can avail of a short-term employment opportunity.

Reform is coming down the tracks in this area; Labour have abandoned the idea of fully banning the contracts in all cases, but they will still seek reform, and Conor Murphy’s ‘good jobs’ agenda will do similar in Northern Ireland. For employers and employees in the meantime, the knowledge of rights and obligations is the greatest defence against any possible problems.

#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: South Down

#GE24 Constituency Profile: South Down

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

The 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies has led to an decrease in the overall electorate of around 7,500 voters, the largest reduction (9.5%) of the NI boundary review. Most of the Strangford ward (which includes Strangford town, Castleward and Bishops Court) has been lost to the Strangford constituency. Despite early proposals, Downpatrick remains in South Down and Ballynahinch wasn’t transferred in from Strangford. However, Drumaness has been transferred out of South Down and the Quoile ward is now split between the two constituencies. South Down has gained all of Loughbrickland (from Newry & Armagh and Upper Bann) and an extra sliver of Ballyward (from Lagan Valley). This reconfiguration will most likely reduce the constituency’s share of nationalist voters and boost support for unionism by 3 to 4 percentage points. 

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

South Down was represented in Westminster by SDLP stalwarts Eddie McGrady and Margaret Ritchie until Sinn Féin’s Chris Hazzard won the seat in 2017 and successfully defended it in 2019. Alliance’s record performance in 2019 (jumping from 3.6% up to 13.9%) ate into both the SDLP and Sinn Féin vote. 

2019 RESULTS

Chris Hazzard (Sinn Féin) won with a vote share of 32.4% and a majority of 1,620 over the SDLP’s Micheal Savage.

COMMENTARY

Chris Hazzard is running for the fourth time in a Westminster election and seeking a third term as the Sinn Féin MP for South Down. With a reduced majority in 2019 (down from 2,446 to 1,620), Hazard will be seeking to build upon Sinn Féin’s stronger performance in the 2022 Assembly poll (44.3%) and good showing at the 2023 local government elections. 

Once an SDLP stronghold, Colin McGrath is seeking to win back the seat for his party. A local MLA since 2016, he will be aiming to halt the decline the party has faced in recent elections in the constituency. While narrowly behind Sinn Féin in 2019, in the 2022 Assembly election, the SDLP polled their worst ever result in South Down, losing an Assembly seat in the process. (Boundary changes make regaining that second seat all the more difficult at the next Assembly election.)

Alliance’s Andrew McMurray stood in 2017 and captured 3.6% of the vote. His colleague Patrick Brown did much better with 13.9% in 2019, a springboard to securing an Assembly seat in 2022. McMurray is back on the ballot paper this year. He replaced Patrick Brown in the Assembly at the end of April following Brown’s sudden resignation. Alliance – and McMurray – will be keen to cement their gains in South Down. Other parties will be looking to the next Assembly election and hoping for early signs that Alliance’s surge will not hold.

Also in the race is Diane Forsythe for the DUP who was elected as an MLA in 2022. She will expect the boundary changes to work to her advantage and secure third place above Alliance. Former Health Minister and long-serving DUP MLA Jim Wells is standing for the TUV. Micheal O’Loan is running for the UUP. With NI Conservative candidate Hannah Westropp, also in the mix, there is a very crowded unionist field despite just 22.0% of the vote plumping for unionist candidates in 2019. Rosemary McGlone is standing for Aontú.

PREDICTION

Sinn Féin hold.

Eversheds Sutherland: Could PPPs breathe life into infrastructure in Northern Ireland?

Writes Lisa Boyd, Projects Construction and Procurement Partner at Eversheds Sutherland. Article first published in the Belfast Telegraph on Tuesday 11 June.

Lisa Boyd, Projects Construction and Procurement Partner at Eversheds Sutherland

Following the return to Stormont, the Infrastructure Minister for Northern Ireland no doubt had a bulging in-tray with huge demands on a tight budget. With competing interests, increasing delivery costs and budget not keeping up, it seems tough choices may be needed as to which projects are worthy of taking forward. Perhaps some outside-the-box thinking is required as to how we can progress capital projects in the region so as to not delay much needed lifelines to services that are already at breaking point.

Throughout the late noughties, we saw the rapid decline of public-private partnerships (PPPs) private finance initiatives (PFIs). These delivery mechanisms, whereby the public sector enters into partnership with the private sector for the delivery of infrastructure, have fallen out of favour. However, a reintroduction could see more projects break ground sooner rather than later, and PPPs carry with them a number of benefits.

PPPs allow the private sector to assume specific risks associated with project delivery, such as construction, operation, and maintenance. By transferring risks to private partners, the Government can focus on policymaking and oversight, reducing its exposure to financial and operational uncertainties, which is now of grave importance given the funding deficit in Northern Ireland. PPPs can also often expedite project delivery, with private partners bringing efficiency, expertise, and streamlined processes. Timely completion of infrastructure projects benefits communities, businesses, and the economy as a whole.

In Northern Ireland, we have dealt with clients whose large projects are being delayed due to the fact that our public infrastructure is often not up to the standard required to take on new capacity. Often, clients in this position will offer to fund the improvement of such infrastructure in order to speed up the delivery of their own projects, but find that there is no avenue to do so.

In this vein, PPPs can contribute to regional development by targeting investment in areas that need economic stimulation. Infrastructure projects create jobs, boost local economies, and enhance connectivity, promoting balanced growth across Northern Ireland, which is one of Conor Murphy’s priorities as Economy Minister.

Although PPPs have not been proposed of late due to the block grant, the recent budget has shown the serious holes in public finance in Northern Ireland. Couple those holes with the significant infrastructure projects needed for Northern Ireland to reach the next level of economic development – from our wastewater system to our outdated road system – and the question must be asked: could the return of PPPs bring our economy to where it needs to be?

#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: North Antrim

#GE24 Constituency Profile: North Antrim

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies caused a realignment between North Antrim and East Antrim. A significant chunk is shaved off its south eastern side with all of Glenravel and the remaining parts of the formerly split Glenwhirry and Slemish wards moving into East Antrim. The Torr Head and Rathlin ward now lies fully within North Antrim. Overall the electorate has decreased by around 6,000 voters. The new constituency boundaries should deliver a modest boost to unionism at the expense of nationalism.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

North Antrim has been represented by a Paisley in the House of Commons since 1970, with Ian Paisley Jr taking over from his father at the 2010 General Election. The DUP’s dominance – averaging 50% of the vote at the last seven Westminster elections – leaves the other parties scrabbling for second place, swinging between the UUP, TUV and Sinn Féin at recent elections. Jim Allister last stood for Westminster in 2010 (second place with 16.8% of the vote). In 2015, party colleague Timothy Gaston polled a similar 15.7% share, though that dropped to 6.8% in 2017.

2019 RESULTS

Ian Paisley (DUP) won with a vote share of 47.4% and a majority of 12,721 over the UUP’s Robin Swann.

COMMENTARY

North Antrim is currently the DUP’s safest seat in Northern Ireland. Ian Paisley is seeking a fifth term in the House of Commons. His campaign received a personal endorsement from the new Reform UK Leader, Nigel Farage, overshadowing fellow candidate, TUV leader Jim Allister – whose party has an official partnership with Reform UK. The TUV did not stand in North Antrim in 2019, but in the 2022 Assembly poll, they received 21.3% of the vote, their best performance across Northern Ireland. With high profile Robin Swann running for the UUP in neighbouring South Antrim constituency, North Antrim will be an interesting contest between two big unionist figures in a heartland constituency.

Jackson Minford is representing the UUP whose party came second for the first time since 2001 at the last General Election, with Robin Swann gaining 18.5% of the vote. Considering only seats in which the party stood at both elections, that was the largest swing towards the UUP (11.3 percentage points) across Northern Ireland between 2017 and 2019.

Sian Mulholland was co-opted as Alliance’s MLA in North Antrim following the departure of Patricia O’Lynn last year. O’Lynn’s 14.1% vote share in 2019 (up 8.5 percentage points on 2017) was a record result for Alliance in North Antrim.

Philip McGuigan is in the race for Sinn Féin: the local MLA polled well at the Assembly election in 2022 achieving 18.5% of the first preference votes. The SDLP are running Helen Maher (replacing Margaret Anne McKillop who polled 6.7% in 2019 but is back running in East Antrim). Also on the ballot is Ráichéal Mhic Niocaill for Aontú and Independent candidate Tristan Morrow.

PREDICTION

DUP hold.