#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: South Antrim

#GE24 Constituency Profile: South Antrim

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY 

The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies has tidied up some wards that were split across South Antrim and neighbouring constituencies. Ballyduff, Burnthill, Carnmoney, Fairview and  Stonyford now lie fully within South Antrim. Meanwhile the constituency has lost Jordanstown (East Antrim) as well as Ballyhenry, Carnmoney Hill and Hightown (all to Belfast North). Despite all the nips and tucks with four other constituencies, the overall electorate has only decreased by around 250 voters, the smallest adjustment of the NI boundary review. Unionist parties should see a small uptick in support at the expense of voters for nationalists and others.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

With the DUP entering the race for the first time, William McCrea won the South Antrim by-election in 2000 that followed the death of UUP MP Clifford Forsythe. Splitting the unionist vote ended the era of large majorities in South Antrim. Just over eight months later, the UUP took back control with David Burnside serving a term before the seat reverted to the DUP and William McCrea in 2005. McCrea held the seat until it flipped back to the UUP’s Danny Kinahan for a term in 2015 with the majority dipping under 1,000. Two years later, Paul Girvan turned that around and won the seat for the DUP and successfully defended it in 2019. Away from the battle within unionism, over the past two decades, Sinn Féin’s vote share has doubled from 5.5% to over 11%, and Alliance’s vote share leapt from 7.4% in 2017 to 19.1% 2019.

2019 RESULTS

Paul Girvan (DUP) won with a vote share of 35.3% and a majority of 2,689 over the UUP’s Danny Kinahan.

COMMENTARY

Paul Girvan is seeking a third term as MP. He holds the DUP’s second most marginal seat in Northern Ireland. South Antrim is the only Westminster seat that the UUP have managed to win back from the DUP since 2001, and it is the UUP’s top target in the General Election. In a high profile move in a competitive constituency, the former Health Minister and North Antrim MLA Robin Swann is running for the UUP. His big challenge is to move the needle up from the UUP’s 2019 vote share (29.0%) to beat the DUP (35.3% in 2019) and take a seat on the green benches of the House of Commons for the party for the first time since 2017.

Significantly, it’s not a two horse race within unionism. Mel Lucas is standing for the TUV, the party’s first candidate in South Antrim since 2015. Whilst not competitive to win, the size of the TUV vote could prove critical in determining the final outcome. In the 2022 Assembly election, the TUV picked up 9.6% of the first preference votes. 

Also in the race is John Blair for Alliance: he stood in 2019 and won a sizeable gain in the party’s vote to come third ahead of Sinn Féin’s Declan Kearney who is also running again. Roisin Lynch is the SDLP’s candidate for the fourth election in a row. The combined nationalist vote is lower at Westminster elections than Assembly polls. Typically this benefits the UUP. Will this pattern be repeated in this General Election?

The Green Party’s deputy leader Lesley Veronica is also standing along with Aontú’s Siobhan McErlean. 

PREDICTION

Too close to call.

#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: West Tyrone

#GE24 Constituency Profile: West Tyrone

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies means that the overall electorate has increased by around 4,250 voters, marginally benefitting nationalist candidates. Up at its tip, the formerly split ward of Slievekirk now fully lies within West Tyrone. Pomeroy moves into the constituency from neighbouring Mid Ulster.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

West Tyrone is the youngest constituency in Northern Ireland, created in 1997, with the seat initially occupied by the UUP’s William Thompson for a single term. Since then, Sinn Féin have held the seat – Pat Doherty, Barry McElduff, and most recently Órfhlaith Begley – with a majority that has never slipped below 5,000. Nationalist candidates consistently attract more than 60% of the votes. Back in the 1997 and 2001 General Elections, SDLP candidates Joe Byrne and Brid Rodgers were polling around 30% of the vote; SDLP support has subsequently slipped to below 18%.

Independent candidate, hospital campaigner and West Tyrone MLA Kieran Deeney, polled a whopping 11,905 votes (27.4%) in 2005. Since then, the DUP’s Thomas Buchanan has always come second, beating the SDLP into third or fourth place. Alliance’s strong showing in 2019 ate into both the nationalist and unionist vote.

2019 RESULTS

Órfhlaith Begley (Sinn Féin) won with a vote share of 40.2% and a majority of 7,478 over the DUP’s Thomas Buchanan.

COMMENTARY

Sinn Féin’s Órfhlaith Begley has been the MP since the 2018 by-election caused by Barry McElduff’s resignation. She is the first female to hold this position and if she successfully defends her seat, Begley will become only the second incumbent to be re-elected since the constituency’s creation. Sinn Féin has polled above 40% of the vote at every General Election since 2010 in West Tyrone.

Thomas Buchanan is an MLA and is standing for the DUP. He has been a regular on the ballot, and the highest placed unionist candidate, since the DUP began contesting the seat in 2005. Matthew Bell, who chairs the Young Unionists, is running for the UUP; Stevan Patterson is running for the TUV; and Stephen Lynch is the Conservative candidate, standing for the NI Conservatives. This makes 2024 the most crowded field within unionism in the history of West Tyrone.

Local MLA Daniel McCrossan is standing for the fifth time for the SDLP. He attracted the highest vote (7,330) for the SDLP at a Westminster election in West Tyrone since 2001 (when Brid Rodgers polled 13,942). With a split unionist ticket, McCrossan has a good chance of finishing second at this election.

Stephen Donnelly (Alliance) is also running for the fifth time. Donnelly is a local councillor and achieved the best result for the party in the constituency's history in 2019, polling 9.7%. Donnelly was an outside hope for an Assembly seat in 2022 and will be hoping to build a stronger base for a potential run in 2027.

Leza Marie Houston is standing for Aontú.

PREDICTION

Sinn Féin hold

#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: Foyle

#GE24 Constituency Profile: Foyle

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies means that Eglinton transferred from Foyle into neighbouring East Londonderry along with the remainder of Claudy. Slievekirk is now fully aligned to the West Tyrone constituency. Overall the electorate has decreased by around 4,500 voters, and is likely to marginally benefit nationalist candidates.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

This seat has been an SDLP heartland for decades. Foyle has elected an SDLP MP for all but two and a half years of the constituency’s 41 year existence. It has been home to three party leaders: John Hume, Mark Durkan, and current MP Colum Eastwood. Other than Elisha McCallion’s narrow victory for Sinn Féin over Mark Durkan in 2017, there have always been very healthy majorities for the SDLP, whose support topped 50% of the valid vote at the last general election for the first time since 2001.

2019 RESULTS

Colum Eastwood (SDLP) won with a vote share of 57.0% and a majority of 17,110 over Sinn Féin’s Elisha McCallion.

COMMENTARY

Eastwood is seeking a second term, defending the largest majority in Northern Ireland. (His party colleague Claire Hanna had the second largest majority in 2019 in Belfast South.) On paper, this is the safest seat in Northern Ireland, and 2019 was the biggest win in the constituency's history. Eastwood will hope to repeat the success of his predecessors by winning a second term in the House of Commons.

Councillor and former mayor Sandra Duffy is running for Sinn Féin. The former MP Elisha McCallion suffered a heavy defeat in 2019. Duffy will be looking to turn voter sentiment around and pull off a result similar to the 2022 Assembly Election, which saw Sinn Féin outpoll the SDLP in the constituency for only the second time in 20 years.

Local MLA and former Junior Minister Gary Middleton is standing for Westminster for the fourth time. The UUP were within a fingertip’s reach of gaining an MLA in Foyle in the 2022 Assembly election, with former DUP councillor Ryan McCready running a strong campaign and coming just 95 votes short of unseating Middleton. McCready is no longer active in politics, and Janice Montgomery is in the race for the UUP. With the boundary changes, it will be interesting to see the combined Unionist vote in the constituency and to what degree there is evidence of tactical voting for the SDLP. 

Councillor Shaun Harkin is running for People Before Profit, Rachael Ferguson for Alliance, and John Boyle for Aontú. All three parties had disappointing results in the 2023 local government elections and will want to see signs of recovery. Anne McCloskey is on the ballot as an independent, having run for Aontú back in 2019.

PREDICTION

SDLP hold. 

#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: East Londonderry

#GE24 constituency profile: East Londonderry

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies means that Eglinton transferred in from Foyle as well as the remainder of Claudy which now fully lies within East Londonderry. Overall the electorate has increased by around 2,850 voters, with a slight nudge on the dial towards extra nationalist voters, and fewer unionist and other.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

Gregory Campbell has held East Londonderry for the DUP since beating UUP’s William Ross in 2001. An initial majority of 1,901 votes blossomed into 9,607 by the last general election. Alliance more than doubled their vote between 2017 (2,538, 6.2%) and 2019 (5,921, 15.1%) Westminster elections – just a couple of hundred votes shy of SDLP’s Cara Hunter. However, Alliance’s first preference vote at the 2022 Assembly election saw their fortune plummet to previous levels. Of the seven constituencies in which they ran in 2019, Aontú came closest to keeping their deposit in East Londonderry, just 235 votes short of the 5% target.

2019 RESULTS

Gregory Campbell (DUP) won with a vote share of 40.1% and a majority of 9,607 over the SDLP’s Cara Hunter.

COMMENTARY

Gregory Campbell is a high-profile member of the DUP and is the second longest serving incumbent in Northern Ireland, If he retains the East Londonderry seat – the DUP’s second safest seat (after North Antrim) – his sixth term in the House of Commons will make him the new longest serving MP across NI’s 18 constituencies.

In 2024, the race within unionism is more crowded than in 2019 with the TUV running a candidate – Councillor Allister Kyle – for the first time since 2010 (when former DUP MP William Ross took 7.4% of the votes for his new party). The TUV will be hopeful to build on the 6.7% share they achieved in the 2022 Assembly poll. Glen Miller is running for the UUP: the party dropped to fifth place in 2019.

One surprise in 2019 was the strength of the SDLP. Cara Hunter came second with a vote share up by nearly five percentage points, the biggest swing to the SDLP outside of Foyle and Belfast South. The party’s fortunes have dipped since 2019, and Hunter was narrowly re-elected to the Assembly in 2022. 

Sinn Féin is running Kathleen McGurk, a local councillor and 2022 Assembly candidate. McGurk was one of the contenders chasing the fifth seat eventually won by the SDLP. This constituency is home to the Minister of Finance, Caoimhe Archibald, and McGurk will be hoping to capitalise on Sinn Féin’s surge across Northern Ireland since 2019. 

Richard Stewart is running for the Alliance Party. His colleague and former councillor, Chris McCaw, polled well in 2019 and was in the chase for an Assembly seat in 2022 although his party’s share dropped back. Aontú deputy leader Gemma Brolly is on the ballot as well as the Green Party’s Jen McCahon and Conservative candidate Claire Louise Scull. 

PREDICTION

DUP hold. 

Definition of a 'Good Job' outlined by Economy Minister Conor Murphy

Minister for the Economy Conor Murphy MLA has announced the framework by which a ‘Good Job’ will be defined. Minister Murphy had previously stated his desire to create Good Jobs as part of four key priorities of his Economic Vision for Northern Ireland whilst in office as Economy Minister.

At the Labour Relations Agency’s ‘Building a Business Case for Good Jobs’ seminar on Tuesday June 18th, Murphy outlined how the Department for the Economy (DfE) is adopting the Carnegie Framework as its definition of Good Jobs.

The framework identifies 7 key dimensions of job quality:

• terms of employment

• pay and benefits

• health, safety and psychological wellbeing

• job design and nature of work

• social support and cohesion

• voice and representation

• work/life balance

The Minister stated that his Department will work to progress all 7 dimensions of this “extremely comprehensive definition”. A consultation is also expected to be launched in the coming weeks on the legislation required to create Good Jobs.

Minister Murphy’s definition was referenced during a session of the Committee for the Economy this week, where Dr Lisa Wilson of the Nevin Economic Research Institute gave evidence to and took questions from committee members on Good Jobs.

#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: Newry and Armagh

#GE24 Constituency Profile: Newry and Armagh

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies means that a number of formerly split wards are now totally aligned within Newry & Armagh: Abbey, Damolly and St Patrick’s. Blackwatertown was lost to Fermanagh & South Tyrone. A number of other split wards were fully aligned to neighbouring constituencies (including Derryleckagh, Loughbrickland, Loughgall, Mahon and Mayobridge). Overall the electorate has decreased by around 6,700 voters, the second largest reduction (8.3%) in the boundary review. The changes are likely to boost the number of nationalist voters at the expense of unionism.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

The UUP’s Jim Nicholson was the first MP of the Newry & Armagh constituency. He was the only unionist MP not to retain his seat in the 1986 by-elections caused by the resignation of unionist MPs as an act of protest against the Anglo-Irish Agreement. The SDLP’s Seamus Mallon held the seat until his retirement in 2005 when Sinn Féin took a 41.4% vote share and Conor Murphy was elected. Since then, Sinn Féin have polled between 40.0% and 47.9% of the votes, with Mickey Brady replacing Murphy in 2015.

The most noteworthy recent change in party strength in Newry and Armagh has been the growth of the centre ground, with Alliance improving their vote share seven-fold from 1.2% in 2005 and 2010 to 8.3% in 2019.

2019 RESULTS

Mickey Brady (Sinn Féin) won with a vote share of 40.0% and a majority of 9,287 over DUP’s William Irwin.

COMMENTARY

Mickey Brady, the MP since 2015, is standing down and being replaced by Dáire Hughes, the deputy General Secretary of Sinn Fein and the last Mayor of Newry and Mourne Council (2014/5) before the merge with Down District Council as part of the Review of Public Administration.

After a decade of working behind the scenes, Hughes is returning to front line elected politics. Newry & Armagh is the political base of the current Economy Minister, Conor Murphy, and the current Chair of the Health Committee, Liz Kimmins. Hughes is an unknown electoral quantity due to his long absence from ballot papers which makes this an interesting seat to follow, even though the final result is not in doubt.

Change is afoot on the unionist side of the political fence, with DUP Councillor Gareth Wilson standing for the first time in a Westminster election. Local MLA William Irwin came second in 2017 (24.6% share) and 2019 (21.7%). The TUV are contesting Newry & Armagh for the first time at a Westminster election: their candidate Keith Radcliffe collected a credible 5,407 votes in the 2022 Assembly poll. Sam Nicholson – the son of the constituency’s first MP – is running for a third time for the UUP, having polled 8.3% of the vote in 2019.

A swing to the TUV could push the DUP into third place behind the SDLP. The current Chair of Newry, Mourne and Down District Council, Pete Byrne, is the SDLP’s candidate. He came third in 2019 with 18.6% of the vote.

Helena Young is standing for Alliance, along with Aontú’s Liam Reichenberg, and Conservative candidate Samantha Raynew.

PREDICTION

Sinn Féin hold.

#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: Upper Bann

#GE24 Constituency Profile: Upper Bann

 ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies means that Upper Bann has transferred Aghagallon and Magheralin into Lagan Valley. It has also shed formerly split wards to other neighbouring constituencies: Ballinderry (to Lagan Valley) and Loughbrickland (to South Down). Mahon now lies fully within Upper Bann along with part of Loughgall. Overall the electorate has decreased by around 6,000 voters but won’t noticeably impact any party’s strength in the constituency at this Westminster poll.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

What used to be a tussle between the UUP and SDLP became a battle within unionism when David Simpson challenged UUP leader David Trimble in a bruising campaign for the 2001 General Election. Trimble’s majority dipped to 2,054 and by 2005, fortunes reversed and Simpson won the seat with a 5,298 majority. Simpson held this once-marginal now-safe seat until his retirement at the 2019 General Election with Carla Lockhart picking up the baton and consolidating her party’s vote. By 2017, Sinn Féin was the second largest party in Upper Bann with John O’Dowd picking up around a quarter of the votes polled in the last two elections. 

2019 RESULTS

Carla Lockhart (DUP) won with a vote share of 41.0% and a majority of 8,210 over Sinn Féin’s John O’Dowd.

COMMENTARY

Upper Bann has the smallest field of the 18 Northern Ireland constituencies with just five candidates nominated.

Carla Lockhart is currently the only female MP in the DUP. She is seeking a second term by holding the seat that the DUP won from the UUP in 2005. Lockhart benefits from the fact that the TUV has decided not to field a candidate in this seat, meaning – unlike many of her colleagues – she won’t have to worry about pressure from that wing of unionism. 

Her main challenger is Sinn Féin councillor and former MLA Catherine Nelson. Nelson previously stood for the Westminster seat in 2015, coming third. She will be hoping to build on the party’s strong performance at the 2022 Assembly election, when they outpolled the DUP, and better the party’s vote from 2019.

Alliance is running Eóin Tennyson for the second time, having come third back in the 2019 Westminster election, nearly tripling the party’s 2015 vote, and outpolling the now UUP leader Doug Beattie. Tennyson was a gain for the party at the 2022 Assembly Election and will be hoping to consolidate the recent gains made by the party. 

This year, the UUP are fielding Councillor Kate Evans. This is the home patch of the party leader and something to watch out for is whether this one-time marginal seat for the UUP continues to see decline. The UUP were within touching distance of the DUP in 2015, yet by 2019 were 14,304 votes adrift. 

The SDLP are running Councillor Malachy Quinn. The party lost an assembly seat in this constituency in 2022 and will be disappointed if they don’t see their support bounce back. 

PREDICTION

DUP hold 

#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: Lagan Valley

#GE24 Constituency Profile: Lagan Valley

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies means that Lagan Valley has been resculpted and now stretches west beyond Ballinderry and Moira to take in Aghagallon (reaching all the way to the Lough Neagh shore) as well as Magheralin from Upper Bann. In the north of the constituency, Derryaghy and Dunmurry now lie fully within Belfast West while no part of Stonyford remains in Lagan Valley (now fully South Antrim). All of Drumbo and the remainder of Belvoir have been transferred to the expanded Belfast South and Mid Down. Dromara now lies fully within Lagan Valley. Despite all these nips and tucks, the constituency’s overall electorate has only increased by around 450 voters. The boundary changes are neutral for unionism, but are likely to increase the percentage of nationalist voters to the detriment of Alliance.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

Since its formation as a new seat in 1983, Lagan Valley has only ever had two MPs. When UUP leader James Molyneaux stood down at the 1997 General Election, Jeffrey Donaldson held the seat for the party – albeit with a smaller majority due to the DUP candidate Edwin Poots collecting some of the unionist votes. Resigning from the UUP just before Christmas 2003 and joining the DUP in the new year, Donaldson continued to hold the seat, winning a total of seven Westminster elections and is currently Northern Ireland’s longest serving MP with a large personal vote.

Alliance more than doubled its share of the vote between the 2017 and 2019 General Elections, with Sorcha Eastwood polling 28.8% of the vote in a record showing for the party in Lagan Valley.

2019 RESULTS

Jeffrey Donaldson (DUP) won with a vote share of 43.1% and a majority of 6,499 over Alliance’s Sorcha Eastwood.

COMMENTARY

Lagan Valley is one of the high profile battles between Alliance and the DUP. Upper Bann MLA Jonathan Buckley was nominated to try to hold the former DUP leader’s seat. Buckley was elected to the Assembly in 2017 and was briefly the Chief of Staff to Edwin Poots during his short leadership of the party. Jeffrey Donaldson has been the MP for Lagan Valley since 1997 and had built up a considerable personal vote. Donaldson was one of the top vote getters in the 2022 Assembly election, scoring the second highest number of first preferences of any MLA elected across Northern Ireland. Together with the nature of his departure from politics earlier this year, and the impact on the electorate, calling this seat is difficult.

The main challenger for Lagan Valley is Sorcha Eastwood who is making her second attempt. Having achieved Alliance’s best ever result in the constituency in 2019, the party gained a second Assembly member in Lagan Valley in 2022, and this seat is one of the ones most associated with the Alliance surge. Eastwood would be the first woman, and the first non-Unionist, to win Lagan Valley. Sinn Féin are not standing which opens up the potential for her to tap into their pool of votes.

Robbie Butler is standing for the third time. The UUP deputy leader is a high profile MLA and will be hoping to get a serious lift in his party’s vote to win the seat. UUP came second in the constituency in 2005, 2010 (under the banner of UCUNF), 2015 and 2017. Eastwood then pushed Butler into third place in 2019.

The TUV are in the race with Lorna Smyth. The party polled just under 7% of the vote in the 2022 Assembly election and their share of the vote could be critical in deciding whether the DUP hold the seat or lose it. Historically this has been a very safe seat for the DUP. However, a fractured or depressed unionist vote could allow Eastwood to float to the top.

The SDLP are running Simon Lee (a former Green Party councillor). Patricia Denvir is the candidate for his old party, the Greens.

PREDICTION

Too close to call.

#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: Mid Ulster

#GE24 Constituency Profile: Mid Ulster

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

Mid Ulster is a large and very rural constituency with the Sperrin mountains on one side, the western shore of Lough Neagh on the other, and flat peatlands in-between. It includes the towns of Magherafelt, Maghera, Cookstown and Coalisland.

The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies means that Pomeroy is no longer in Mid Ulster constituency and has moved into West Tyrone. Donaghmore has moved in the opposite direction. A number of other wards (and partial wards) have moved between Mid Ulster and Fermanagh & South Tyrone and Upper Bann. Overall the electorate has decreased by around 400 voters.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

This constituency has been home to political heavyweights like William McCrea, Martin McGuinness and Michelle O’Neill.

Sinn Féin have held the seat since the boundary changes that reshaped Mid Ulster with the creation of the West Tyrone constituency. Martin McGuinness displaced William McCrea in 1997 with a high-water mark turnout of 86.0%. The baton was passed to Francie Molloy in the 2013 by-election. While Sinn Féin’s majority dipped against the single independent unionist candidate Nigel Lutton that year, the party continues to dominate over unionist and nationalist rivals.

The SDLP typically come third behind the DUP, and the UUP’s best result in recent history was Sandra Overend’s second place at the 2015 General Election, beating DUP rival Ian McCrea by 853 votes. 

2019 RESULTS

Francie Molloy (Sinn Féin) was re-elected with a vote share of 45.9% and a majority of 9,537 over the DUP’s Keith Buchanan.

COMMENTARY

Incumbent Sinn Féin MP Francie Molloy is stepping down at this election. He is being replaced on the ballot by Cathal Mallaghan, a local councillor who has served as chair of the Mid Ulster District Council. Sinn Féin have consistently polled above 40% of the vote in this constituency for the past two decades. In 2019, there was an 8.6 percentage point fall in the party’s Mid Ulster share of the votes, with support shed to Alliance and the SDLP. 

The SDLP are fielding local Councillor Denise Johnston for the second time (polling 14.3% of the vote in 2019). 26 year old Padraic Farrell is the Alliance candidate. Mid Ulster remains elusive for Alliance with the party never having success at council or Assembly elections. They’ll be hoping to build on a boost in their numbers at the 2023 Assembly poll to challenge for a council seat in 2028.

Running for the DUP is local MLA Keith Buchanan, standing for the third time. The DUP came second in this seat in 2019 with 24.5% of the vote. This time there will be a TUV candidate on the ticket, Glenn Moore, along with Jay Basra for the UUP, creating further splits in the pro-union vote.

Also on the ballot is Alixandra Halliday (Aontú) and independent John Kelly.

PREDICTION

Sinn Féin hold.

#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: Fermanagh and South Tyrone

#GE24 Constituency Profile: Fermanagh and South Tyrone

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

Fermanagh & South Tyrone is geographically the largest of the eighteen Northern Ireland constituencies and it is the most westerly constituency in the United Kingdom. As a result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies, there are changes at its eastern end, taking in Blackwatertown (from Newry & Armagh) along with the remainder of Ballysaggart, Killymeal, Moygashel and Mullaghmore. Ballygawley is now fully within Fermanagh & South Tyrone but no part of Loughgall remains within the constituency (now split between Mid Ulster and Newry & South Tyrone). Killyman is now fully within Mid Ulster. Overall the electorate has increased by around 1,700 voters. The new boundary is likely to marginally favour nationalism over unionism. However, in a marginal constituency like Fermanagh & South Tyrone, even a small change could tilt the electoral balance.  

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

The most marginal seat in Northern Ireland has an important place in republicanism and unionism. For the former, it was the seat won by Bobby Sands in the April 1981 by-election, beating the former UUP leader Harry West. Four months later, Sands’ election agent Owen Carron topped the poll in the by-election caused by Sands’ death. The UUP’s Ken Maginnis held the seat from 1983 until his retirement in 2001.

Other than a two year spell (2015-2017) with the UUP’s Tom Elliott as MP, Michelle Gildernew has held the seat since 2001 (winning with a majority of 53 votes). The 2010 result was even tighter, with a mere 4 vote majority over independent unionist candidate Rodney Connor.

Since 2010, only a single unionist candidate has contested Fermanagh & South Tyrone. The SDLP does not stand aside for Sinn Féin in this constituency. Alliance’s vote was up three and a half percentage points in this constituency in the 2019 General Election. 

2019 RESULTS

Michelle Gildernew (Sinn Féin) was re-elected with a vote share of 43.3% and a majority of 57 over the UUP’s Tom Elliott.

COMMENTARY

Running for Sinn Féin is first time candidate Pat Cullen, the former General Secretary of the Royal College of Nursing. She has a high profile due to industrial disputes in the health service with the Conservative government over the past number of years. She is favourite to retain Michelle Gildernew’s seat for the party.

After four outings at Westminster elections, Tom Elliott is not standing for the UUP. The party announced that their candidate would be Councillor Diana Armstrong, the daughter of former party leader, Harry West. Despite being upset that an independent unionist candidate had not been agreed, the TUV and DUP have decided not to stand candidates in Fermanagh & South Tyrone to unite the pro-union vote. This will be the fifth attempt in a row of a unity candidate attempting to win this seat. 

Also running: Paul Blake (SDLP), Eddie Roofe (Alliance), Carl Duffy (Aontú) and Gerry Cuillen (Cross Community Labour Alternative).

PREDICTION

Sinn Féin hold