Brown O'Connor Litigation Communications - Our Services

The management of the communications process prior to and during legal disputes can often help maintain and protect a client’s reputation and assist in the shaping of an outcome.

The court of public opinion is often just as important as what goes on inside the courtroom.

Working with the media and key influencers can create a more balanced, accurate and less sensational coverage of a lawsuit.

The wrong approach to litigation PR can cost you your reputation, and more.

Brown O’Connor Communications have worked on some of the most sensitive client issues in Northern Ireland to know the right approach to take.

Brown O’Connor takes the strain of litigation communications when the stress and focus of being a litigant or a lawyer in a case is prioritised elsewhere.

How we can help

  • Brown O’Connor Communication Litigation PR service can help by:

  • Balanced media coverage;

  • Countering negative publicity;

  • Making a client’s viewpoint known;

  • Assisting the media and key influencers to understand complex legal issues;

  • Defusing hostile situations and assisting in resolving conflict.

Our Services

  • Litigation communication strategy development

  • Media Engagement

  • Stakeholder and Elected Representative Engagement

  • Proactive media statements drafting and distribution

  • Rapid rebuttal

  • Reactive statement drafting and distribution

  • Managing Press Conferences and media interviews

  • Media Training

  • Media and Political Monitoring

  • Reputation building PR campaign development and roll-out

Ready for the return of the Assembly as sun sets on summer recess?

The new NI Assembly term is just several weeks away. Intense focus will now shift to legislative and policy development, the Programme for Government and new campaigns.

Whether it’s a review of current strategy or the development of a new approach, Brown O’Connor has the expertise, energy and trusted advisers in place for you and your organisation to be prepared well in advance.

As Northern Ireland’s leading political influencing agency we bring Insight, Influence and Impact to the lobbying programmes and campaigns we deliver. Our strategic approach assists in the delivery of core business objectives and helps clients navigate, anticipate, and react to the ever-changing political landscape.

Our new NI Assembly term services include:

  • Public Affairs Strategy Development

  • Political Intelligence & Monitoring

  • Policy & Issues Based Events

  • Public Awareness Campaigns

  • Media Relations and Social Media Content Generation

  • Supporting Campaign Related Strategic Litigation

  • Consultation Response Drafting

  • Issues Management

Kneecap film opens at number three at the Irish box-office behind Hollywood heavy hitters

Kneecap Members, DJ Provaí, Mo Chara, and Móglaí Bap, with director Rich Peppiatt.

Despite extremely warm weather across Ireland over the weekend, audiences flocked to cinemas, with critically-acclaimed independent Irish film Kneecap opening at number three in the Irish box office charts with approx. €292k across the island of Ireland. 

Only Hollywood heavy-hitters It Ends With Us and Deadpool & Wolverine were ahead at the box office in Ireland, with big-budget US titles like Trap and Borderlands opening behind Kneecap.

This marks the biggest weekend opening for an Irish film at the Irish box office, including previews, since Academy Award® nominated The Banshees of Inisherin and the biggest box office opening for an Irish language feature film ever. Cinemas across Ireland are expecting the film to continue to perform very strongly, noting overwhelmingly positive word of mouth from audiences.

Kneecap had the widest ever opening of an Irish film in cinemas across Ireland, opening in 109 screens across the island of Ireland.

The Irish Film & Television Academy (IFTA) recently announced that the Irish language feature was selected to represent Ireland in the Oscar® International Feature Film category at the upcoming 97th annual Academy Awards. 

The film, written and directed by Rich Peppiatt (One Rogue Reporter) stars the members of the West Belfast rap trio Kneecap (Móglaí Bap, Mo Chara and DJ Próvaí) alongside an ensemble cast including Oscar® nominee Michael Fassbender, Simone Kirby, Josie Walker, Fionnuala Flaherty, Jessica Reynolds and Adam Best. 

Set in West Belfast in 2019, when fate brings Belfast schoolteacher JJ into the orbit of Naoise and Liam Óg, the needle drops on a hip hop act like no other. Rapping in their native Irish language, the trio create their own genre of Irish punk rap, melding the Irish and English language with electrifying energy. Their writing and performance reimagine what rap can be as a creative and cultural force, rooted in community. Kneecap ultimately become the unlikely figureheads of a Civil Rights movement to save their mother tongue, upending preconceptions about language and place and spearheading a cultural revival and interest from their legions of young followers.

Kneecap was produced by Trevor Birney and Jack Tarling for Fine Point Films and Mother Tongues Films, with Patrick O'Neill at Wildcard acting as Co-Producer. Funding for the film was provided by Northern Ireland Screen, the Irish Language Broadcast Fund, Fís Éireann / Screen Ireland, the BFI (awarding National Lottery funding), Coimisiún na Meán and TG4, Dias Feld and Kamila Serkebaeva, with backing from Great Point Media.

Curzon will release the film in the UK on Friday 23rd August.

The film had its World Premiere at the prestigious Sundance Film Festival in January this year, where it won a NEXT Audience Award, the first Irish language film to win at the festival. It went on to play at Sundance London, and was the opening film of Galway Film Fleadh, where it won three prizes including the Audience Award.

Construction works to commence on site of new Kainos global headquarters and Queen’s eco-friendly accommodation

Work gets underway on the Kainos and Queen’s University, Dublin Road site. Pictured from left to right are Laura McCarthy and Russell Sloan from Kainos, with Peter Erwin, Professor Sir Ian Greer and Liz McLaughlin, Queens University Belfast

Work is due to begin on site for Queen’s University Belfast’s new student accommodation and Kainos’ new global headquarters at Bankmore Exchange, on the Dublin Road in Belfast.

Planning permission was granted earlier this year for Kainos to develop its new headquarters, targeting a BREEAM outstanding accreditation and NABERS 5* rating which is a first for the office market in Northern Ireland, and for Queen’s to develop the first Passivhaus purpose-built managed student accommodation in Northern Ireland.

Enabling works for both projects are set to get started this month with Queen’s having appointed construction company, Graham, to develop its new student accommodation.

Russell Sloan, CEO of Kainos, stated:

"This location will serve as Kainos' global headquarters, situated right here in Belfast. We are eager to stimulate local economic growth and generate new opportunities within the city. This building underlines our commitment to Belfast. In addition to our own base, this tech hub will provide sustainable office space for other companies. Our aim is to contribute to Belfast’s position as a leading destination for investment and employment."

Queen’s University is one of the largest property owners in the city and has been at the forefront of the development of south Belfast throughout its history, as affirmed through its Civic Commitment to the area.

Queen’s President and Vice-Chancellor Professor Sir Ian Greer commented:

“For the past 180 years, Queen’s has been renowned for providing a world-class education to our students and huge influence on the economic and social landscape of Belfast and beyond. This accommodation, together with Kainos’ new office space, will transform the landscape of Dublin Road, increase economic activity in the area through city-centre-living and deliver tangible benefits for the welfare of our people and planet.”

The low-emission Passivhaus accommodation uses minimal energy for heating and cooling. Housing up to 459 students, it drives forward the university’s commitment to delivering nearly 3,000 new student beds by 2029 and meeting its net-zero commitments.

Kainos plans to occupy around half of its building and will lease the remaining floors to commercial tenants. It has appointed joint property agents Avison and Young, and Cushman and Wakefield.

Both projects represent a significant investment by Kainos and Queen’s to the rejuvenation of an area once known as Belfast’s Golden Mile. The projects highlight a collective commitment to creating a vibrant hub, serving to benefit local business owners and positively impacting the work environment in central Belfast.

Queen's plans to welcome students to its new facilities in time for the beginning of the September 2026 academic year.

Bankmore Exchange is scheduled for completion within 24 months, with Kainos aiming to take occupancy in early 2027.

VSS leading the way in Trauma-Informed Approach with formal accreditation

Andrew Walker, Victims and Survivors Service (VSS) CEO

The Victims and Survivors Service (VSS) has become the first organisation in Northern Ireland to be accredited with a Silver ‘Trauma-Informed: Working With Trauma Quality Mark’, offering formal recognition of its trauma-informed approach in identifying and responding to the needs of victims and survivors. 

The initiative, supported by the Safeguarding Board for Northern Ireland’s (SBNI) workforce development project (Trauma Informed Practice), involved working with ‘One Small Thing’, a specialist charity which provides assessment and accreditation to organisations who can evidence that they meet a robust, accessible, and supportive set of standards for working with trauma.

As the first organisation in Northern Ireland to receive this accreditation, VSS ensures that victims and survivors receive the measured, considerate, and tailored trauma-informed approach required in all interactions with its team and in the services and support provided.

Receiving this accreditation demonstrates the commitment of VSS and its team to delivering a trauma-informed approach in everything it does to support victims and survivors.

Responding to the announcement, the Safeguarding Board NI Trauma Informed Practice Team described the process as:

“A pleasure, which is a well-deserved recognition of their efforts. We are confident that VSS will serve as a model for other organisations to emulate, follow and collaborate with”.   

VSS Chief Executive Andrew Walker commented:

“This important accreditation provides us with crucial assurance on how we work and deliver support and services for those who need them. Additionally, it ensures that everything we do is carried out in a way that is informed by the lived experiences of victims and survivors and their specific needs.  I am grateful to the Safeguarding Board for Northern Ireland for their support, and to VSS staff and our partners for their dedication to trauma-informed practice.”

Eversheds Sutherland: Murphy’s Good Jobs Consultation Long Overdue

Writes Ian McFarland, Employment Partner, Eversheds Sutherland. Article first published in the Irish News, Tuesday 9 July. 

Ian McFarland, Employment Partner, Eversheds Sutherland.

The unveiling of Minister for the Economy Conor Murphy’s Good Jobs consultation was long-awaited and overdue. Years of political stagnancy and a lack of desire on the part of previous Ministers for the Economy have meant that Northern Ireland has been left behind in its employment laws in recent years.

Unsurprisingly, the terms of the consultation have mainly been inspired by developments to our east and south. The consultation papers are comprehensive, but among the 157 pages of the document, it is clear that some proposals are more likely to come to fruition than others.

The most likely of the proposed reforms to be implemented are the most high profile. Zero hour contracts will be a key area of focus. While much maligned and open to exploitation by some employers, they can and do work for many. Their abolition is unlikely, but they may be limited to specific circumstances as in the Republic of Ireland, where the work must be of a casual nature, short-term relief work, or work done in emergency situations.  

Fire and rehire will also be in the Department’s crosshairs; legislative intervention to prevent the practice is not impossible to imagine, but it remains more likely that we will see a Code of Practice similar to that recently implemented in Great Britain.

Developments in relation to the fair distribution of tips are also expected, with a legal requirement for full amount of cashless tips be passed on, which would be a welcome development for the workers but come at a cost for the employers.

The issue of holiday pay has vexed employers for many years, but there will likely be some much needed clarification with the reference period for calculation purposes expected to be extended from 12 weeks to 52 weeks, assisting local employers currently faced with the dilemma of reconciling competing reference periods in the legislation and recent decisions.

Flexible working developments will also likely reflect recent developments in Great Britain, including the right to flexible working from day one of employment and making the exercise of the right to request more straightforward. Changes to family-related rights such as carer’s leave, neonatal care leave and pay, protection for pregnant employees, and paternity leave will all likely follow a similar path of modernisation as those seen elsewhere.

The consultation period set out, lasting until 30 September, is extensive, fulfilling the purpose of devolution by allowing local voices to be heard. Northern Ireland employers can now engage with the process, and while the proposals are inspired by examples from elsewhere, this consultation allows us the opportunity to make them fully our own.

Government Plans Laid Out in King's Speech

The King’s Speech is the epitome of pomp and ceremony, with hours of coverage and preparation of a twenty-minute speech. This morning, the King made the journey from Buckingham Palace over to the House of Lords for the State opening of Parliament, while Buckingham Palace took Samatha Dixon MP “hostage” while the King is in Parliament; an old tradition, to ensure the King’s safe return.

The contents of the speech were a repetition of what we’ve heard from the Labour Party over the six weeks of the election campaign. With a mandate of growth, growth, growth, the King said the word repeatedly throughout the first two minutes of his speech, also reiterating the Labour mantra of “Get Britain Building.” Other pledges, which have been repeated time and again during the Labour campaign, included nationalisation plans for GB Railways, the creation the GB Energy company, a Border Security Command, House of Lords Reform, the end to VAT exemptions for private schools, and a ban on conversion therapy. The speech was just as anticipated, with little surprises, but some important Labour pledges were excluded, such as voting for 16-year-olds, a mandatory retirement age for the House of Lords, and an AI Bill.

The King also said that the government will focus on devolution to the nations and regions and intends to “repeal and replace” the Northern Ireland Troubles Act, a move very welcome across party lines in Northern Ireland, as pointed out by the SDLP leader Colum Eastwood and Upper Bann MP Carla Lockhart in their post-speech comments.

From today, Parliament will start to debate the contents of the Speech for the next six sitting days, with a vote at the end. This debate is the first opportunity for MPs to deliver their maiden speeches in the House of Commons, so expect to see some fresh faces preaching their loyalty and thanks to their constituents, with little mention of the speech itself, over the next week.

Nesbitt’s Health Priorities Outlined

 

Health News 10 July 2024

It’s always worth a look when a departmental press release comes out on the cusp of a holiday. This afternoon’s surprise was from the Health Minister, Mike Nesbitt MLA, releasing a written statement on his department’s planned initiatives.  There’s A LOT to cover, so here’s a quick summary. Deep breath…

Bengoa’s Back

The first headline grabber is the news that Professor Rafael Bengoa of the eponymous and oft-referred-to “Bengoa Report”, will return to Northern Ireland in the Autumn.  Professor Bengoa first reported his recommendations for reform and transformation of the Northern Ireland health service in 2016. He will return for a conference and a series of engagements around these same topics.  The Minister states his intention to “reboot the public conversation around health reform.”

Welcoming this news, Alliance Health spokesperson Nuala McAlister MLA said, “I hope that this visit from Professor Bengoa will refocus the minds of those who have been unable to make difficult decisions required for the necessary transformation of our health service, and increase the urgency of reform.”

Summer Consultation on Hospital Reconfiguration

The Minister has also announced today that he is planning to publish a proposal for hospital reconfiguration for consultation over the summer. The Minister states clearly, “while every existing hospital has a key role to play, every hospital cannot provide every service.”  Minister Nesbitt knows he won’t be able to please all the people all the time and he’s up front in acknowledging it.

Three Year Strategic Plan for Health and Social Care

The Minister has stated that he will issue a Strategic Plan for Health and Social Care the remaining mandate of the current Assembly. It will cover three themes: Stabilisation, Reform and Delivery.  He notes that, given budget constraints, Stabilisation will be the dominant theme.

Primary Care and Social Care as Priorities

The Health Minister stated that prioritising primary care and social care are “front and centre” in the department’s priorities.  He recognises that “it is vitally important in its own right to help our citizens live healthy and independent lives in the community” and notes the additional benefit of “easing pressure on our beleaguered acute hospital sector”. 

Reform of Adult Social Care - news next week

It will come as welcome news to the sector that there is imminent news on this. The Minister has announced that a Delivery Plan for the Social Care Collaborative Forum will be published next week. He stated that the Forum is working collaboratively to implement proposals arising out of the consultation on the Reform of Adult Social Care and said key themes for the Delivery Plan will focus on: Building a Sustainable Workforce; Improving Commissioning and Contracting Arrangements; and Developing Improved Partnership Working. 

Children’s Social Care Services

Today’s Ministerial Statement coincides with the publication of responses to the public consultation on the Independent Review of Children’s Social Care Services.  The Health Minister said he is planning to publish his response to the Review’s recommendations in Autumn. 

Minister for Children and Families

Also of note, the Minister stated he will be looking at cross-cutting recommendations involving other Departments, including recommendations on the possible appointment of a Minister for Children and Families, the establishment of a Children and Families Arm’s Length Body and the expansion of the Sure Start programme and the Gillen Review of Civil and Family Justice. 

Tackling Inequalities – Public Health Prevention

Throughout his statement, the Minister reiterates his now-familiar theme of health inequalities.  He announced the first phase of a “Live Better” initiative, designed to bring targeted health support to communities which need it most.  This will build on work by the PHA and others, covering areas such as increasing uptake in health screening and vaccination, mental health support, blood pressure and cholesterol checks, nutrition and physical activity. 

In the week when the Minister also announced that the core grant to voluntary organisations is to remain at the 50% level provided in 2023-24, it is of note that his statement says “my intention is that the community and voluntary sector will be a key, and equal partner in delivering and supporting this programme.”

The long weekend ahead will need to be restful: it looks like July and August are going to be action-packed in the Department of Health.

The Health Minister’s statement can be read in full here *doh-wms-Department of Health planned initiatives-july-2024.pdf (health-ni.gov.uk)

ENDS 

By Vicki Caddy, PR Director, Head of Healthcare Communications

 

Health Minister Mike Nesbitt MLA meeting health service staff

#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Special

#GE24 Brown O’Connor Communications General Election Special

We’ve made it, today is General Election Eve. Tomorrow, voters will head to the polls in the first July General Election since 1945. Whilst the result in Great Britain may seem inevitable, the same cannot be said for the contests taking place in Northern Ireland, where this is arguably the General Election with the most seats in play for quite some time.

Here, the eligible electorate is 1,363,961, an increase of 69,990 voters from the last General Election in 2019. This is also the first election in Northern Ireland to take place under the new constituency boundaries following the 2023 review.

In what has been a somewhat lacklustre campaign, the stakes are high for Northern Ireland’s main parties. Going into this election, the DUP hold 8 seats, Sinn Féin 7, the SDLP 2, and Alliance 1.

Will the DUP be able to hold on to their 8 seats, or can Sinn Féin complete the hat-trick and become the largest party at Westminster level, to go along with their recent Assembly and Council Election triumphs?

Will Colum Eastwood’s SDLP see their two MPs re-elected and can Alliance continue their 2019 surge by increasing (and maintaining) their presence at Westminster?

Finally, can the UUP return to the green benches after an absence of 5 years and how will the TUV fare after not standing in 2019?

All of these questions will be answered by the early hours of Friday morning, after all the votes have been counted in the three count centres across Northern Ireland.

Over the last number of weeks, we have been previewing each of Northern Ireland’s 18 constituencies and the races within them. Before we head to the polls tomorrow, here is a summary of all 18, with links to our blog where you can find more detailed previews for each constituency, as well as our prediction of the result in each of them.

 

Belfast East – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Too Close to Call.

 

Belfast North – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Sinn Féin Hold.

 

Belfast South and Mid Down – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: SDLP Hold.

 

Belfast West – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Sinn Féin Hold.

 

East Antrim – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Conor Prediction: DUP Hold.

 

East Londonderry – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: DUP Hold.

 

Fermanagh and South Tyrone – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Sinn Féin Hold.

 

Foyle – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: SDLP Hold.

 

Lagan Valley – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Too Close to Call.

 

Mid Ulster – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Sinn Féin Hold.

 

Newry and Armagh – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Sinn Féin Hold.

 

North Antrim – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: DUP Hold.

 

North Down – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Too Close to Call.

 

South Antrim – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Too Close to Call.

 

South Down – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Sinn Féin Hold.

 

Strangford – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: DUP Hold.

 

West Tyrone – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: Sinn Féin Hold.

 

Upper Bann – Constituency Profile: click here.

Brown O’Connor Prediction: DUP Hold.

#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election 2024 Summary

Brown O’Connor Communications General Election 2024 Summary

·       One of the most unpredictable elections in recent times. 

·       As many as six seats could change hands. 

·       First July election since 1945.

·       First Westminster election with Stormont up and running since 2015. 

 

 2019 RESULTS

In the 2019 General Election, four seats changed hands. Back in 2001, seven seats changed party hands; in 2010, just two.

In 2019, the DUP lost two seats but remained the largest party with 8 MPs elected to Westminster. Sinn Féin stayed on 7 seats, despite losing Foyle (to the SDLP) and winning Belfast North (from the DUP). Both largest parties lost vote share between 2017 and 2019.

The SDLP won Belfast South (from the DUP) and Foyle, returning to the House of Commons benches after an absence of 2 years. Alliance won the North Down seat vacated by independent Sylvia Hermon. Overall, their vote share more than doubled, and was at a higher level than the SDLP. 

Five new MPs headed over to London: Colum Eastwood (SDLP), Stephen Farry (Alliance), John Finucane (Sinn Féin), Claire Hanna (SDLP) and Carla Lockhart (DUP, taking over from David Simpson). Sinn Féin’s Órfhlaith Begley kept the West Tyrone seat she won in the 2018 by-election following Barry McElduff’s resignation.

 

BOUNDARY REVIEW

Before the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies, constituencies ranged from just shy of 65,000 (East Antrim) to 83,000 (Upper Bann). The adjustments, transferring wards and sometimes parts of wards in and out of neighbouring constituencies, has narrowed the gap between the smallest (Belfast East, just shy of 73,000) and the largest (Lagan Valley, now with just over 82,000).

The results of the boundary review won’t have a major effect on the 2024 General Election. However, the parties will be examining the results and tally information captured during the verification stage of the count to see how it affects their chances at picking up fourth or fifth seats in the next Assembly poll. 



COMMENTARY

Until the 4 July poll, there will be no proper evidence of how voters will really behave. Opinion polls trying to tease out their potential behaviour beforehand may in turn sway their actions on the day of the election. Voters can also use pollsters to send a message to the parties they normally support by suggesting bold action, but are less adventurous in the polling station. Until the real poll, all other information, campaigning, rumours and speculation becomes part of a giant feedback loop.

Four ‘known unknowns’ make many of the seats hard to call. 

  • Turnout for the DUP - if some voters unhappy with the DUP strategy around the NI Protocol stay at home and abstain from the election rather than vote for another party, this will benefit the UUP’s Robin Swann (South Antrim), as well as Alliance’s Stephen Farry (North Down) and Sorcha Eastwood (Lagan Valley).

  • Will Sinn Féin voters turn out and vote for other parties in the four constituencies in which there is no Sinn Féin candidate, or will they stay at home?

  • The level of tactical voting will decide many seats - Northern Ireland voters are quite savvy, they know that plumping their support for a candidate likely to finish in third place or below will not affect the overall result. Many will want to record their support for their favourite party or candidate. But how many will see their constituency as a two-horse race and vote for the perceived top two candidates? The level of support for the TUV and ‘underdog’ UUP candidates like Tim Collins and Robbie Butler could be crucial in South Antrim, North Down and Lagan Valley.

  • Have Alliance peaked? Or will their support increase again? The Alliance surge was obvious at the 2019 General Election. Their vote share more than doubled in 12 constituencies. Opinion polling does not suggest significant further growth. But in the privacy of the polling station, voters may surprise those making predictions!

The only party not to lose a deposit in the 2019 General Election was the DUP. In fact, looking back as far as 1997, the DUP has always retained its deposit in every Westminster election/by-election. Historically, they’ve been most vulnerable in Belfast West and South Down … ones to watch in 2024.  

136 candidates are contesting Northern Ireland’s 18 constituencies. Just under a third of candidates (33.1%) are women: a record number at a General Election, marginally ahead of the 2017 field (33.0%). All but one Independent candidate is male. The parties fielding the greatest proportion of men are unionist: TUV 12/14, UUP 14/17, DUP 13/16. Three parties have more women standing than men: Aontú 6/10, Conservative 3/5, Green Party 6/11.

 Narrowing down to look at incumbents, the lowest number of incumbents (14) are seeking re-election of any General Election in the last two decades. In all but one recent election, three or more incumbents have lost their seats on election night.

Fermanagh & South Tyrone is often the most marginal constituency, a battle between leading nationalist and unionist candidates. The SDLP are defending the two largest majorities from the last election: Foyle and Belfast South. As recently as 2017, Foyle was the most marginal seat for Sinn Féin (Elisha McCallion won by 169 votes). Within nationalism, South Down is the most marginal seat. South Antrim is the most marginal constituency within unionism, and is also the constituency that has changed party most often (5 out of 7 elections) since 2000. Belfast East and North Down are the most marginal constituencies between unionism and Alliance. 

The DUP have returned the largest number of MPs to Westminster since 2005, when they took over the lead from the UUP. While Sinn Féin won’t expect to gain any seats at this election, the party’s strategy of not running candidates in four ‘progressive’ races is seen as an attempt to boost the chances of the DUP losing two (or more) seats and make Sinn Féin by default the largest party at Westminster.

Looking at votes rather than seats, the DUP vote share would have to significantly dip for Sinn Féin to score the largest number of votes in this election and be able to claim to have become the largest party at Assembly, local government and now Westminster levels. Sinn Féin didn’t stand in Belfast East, Belfast South and North Down in 2019. So their withdrawal from Lagan Valley in 2024 only knocks around a thousand votes off their potential tally and won’t harm their Northern Ireland-wide share.

Election turnout varies greatly across Northern Ireland’s 18 constituencies. In 2019, the competitive Fermanagh & South Tyrone saw a turnout of 70.13% of eligible voters, while Strangford had the lowest (56.28%). Since 1997, no constituency’s turnout has dipped below 50% at a General Election (though East Antrim came close in 2010 with a turnout of 50.89%). Overall, turnout marked an improvement in the last two Westminster elections. Will that pattern continue this year? By-election turnouts are traditionally lower, with Belfast West sliding down to 37.46% in 2011 and South Antrim only managing 43.02% in 2000.

 

POLLS

The latest polling conducted by LucidTalk for the Belfast Telegraph highlights the fine margins in this election. In 2001, we had one of the highest rates of seat change, with 7 seats moving between parties. The campaign in 2024 is heading the same way.

There are contests which are incredibly finely balanced. This election will likely depend on who gets their voters out. Northern Ireland last had a July contest in 1945. The impact of postal votes and those away on holiday who do not bother to vote will be something to watch.

Opinion polling indicates the DUP trending downwards; Sinn Féin and Alliance holding their own; with the SDLP and UUP trending up. The impact of the TUV in this race is hard to properly evaluate. If they register 5%+ of the vote in places like South Antrim and East Belfast, they will be a problem for the DUP. Less than that will be a sign of good health for the DU

 

HOW LONG TO STAY UP?

In 2019 and 2017, North Down was the first seat declared in the election count. Both times the declaration came after 01:00. Unlike the rest of the UK, Northern Ireland has no exit poll to project seats when polls close at 10 o’clock. In 2019, a majority of the seats were declared by 04:00. The last seat declared in 2019 and 2017 was Fermanagh and South Tyrone, which came in at 07:00 and 04:09 respectively.

Either way, it will be the early morning hours before you start seeing results from Northern Ireland’s three count centres, particularly for those constituencies whose ballot boxes have the furthest to travel to reach the Craigavon and Magherafelt count centres.

Spare chart in case you need it …

ENDS…///