#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: Upper Bann

#GE24 Constituency Profile: Upper Bann

 ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies means that Upper Bann has transferred Aghagallon and Magheralin into Lagan Valley. It has also shed formerly split wards to other neighbouring constituencies: Ballinderry (to Lagan Valley) and Loughbrickland (to South Down). Mahon now lies fully within Upper Bann along with part of Loughgall. Overall the electorate has decreased by around 6,000 voters but won’t noticeably impact any party’s strength in the constituency at this Westminster poll.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

What used to be a tussle between the UUP and SDLP became a battle within unionism when David Simpson challenged UUP leader David Trimble in a bruising campaign for the 2001 General Election. Trimble’s majority dipped to 2,054 and by 2005, fortunes reversed and Simpson won the seat with a 5,298 majority. Simpson held this once-marginal now-safe seat until his retirement at the 2019 General Election with Carla Lockhart picking up the baton and consolidating her party’s vote. By 2017, Sinn Féin was the second largest party in Upper Bann with John O’Dowd picking up around a quarter of the votes polled in the last two elections. 

2019 RESULTS

Carla Lockhart (DUP) won with a vote share of 41.0% and a majority of 8,210 over Sinn Féin’s John O’Dowd.

COMMENTARY

Upper Bann has the smallest field of the 18 Northern Ireland constituencies with just five candidates nominated.

Carla Lockhart is currently the only female MP in the DUP. She is seeking a second term by holding the seat that the DUP won from the UUP in 2005. Lockhart benefits from the fact that the TUV has decided not to field a candidate in this seat, meaning – unlike many of her colleagues – she won’t have to worry about pressure from that wing of unionism. 

Her main challenger is Sinn Féin councillor and former MLA Catherine Nelson. Nelson previously stood for the Westminster seat in 2015, coming third. She will be hoping to build on the party’s strong performance at the 2022 Assembly election, when they outpolled the DUP, and better the party’s vote from 2019.

Alliance is running Eóin Tennyson for the second time, having come third back in the 2019 Westminster election, nearly tripling the party’s 2015 vote, and outpolling the now UUP leader Doug Beattie. Tennyson was a gain for the party at the 2022 Assembly Election and will be hoping to consolidate the recent gains made by the party. 

This year, the UUP are fielding Councillor Kate Evans. This is the home patch of the party leader and something to watch out for is whether this one-time marginal seat for the UUP continues to see decline. The UUP were within touching distance of the DUP in 2015, yet by 2019 were 14,304 votes adrift. 

The SDLP are running Councillor Malachy Quinn. The party lost an assembly seat in this constituency in 2022 and will be disappointed if they don’t see their support bounce back. 

PREDICTION

DUP hold 

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#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: Lagan Valley

#GE24 Constituency Profile: Lagan Valley

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies means that Lagan Valley has been resculpted and now stretches west beyond Ballinderry and Moira to take in Aghagallon (reaching all the way to the Lough Neagh shore) as well as Magheralin from Upper Bann. In the north of the constituency, Derryaghy and Dunmurry now lie fully within Belfast West while no part of Stonyford remains in Lagan Valley (now fully South Antrim). All of Drumbo and the remainder of Belvoir have been transferred to the expanded Belfast South and Mid Down. Dromara now lies fully within Lagan Valley. Despite all these nips and tucks, the constituency’s overall electorate has only increased by around 450 voters. The boundary changes are neutral for unionism, but are likely to increase the percentage of nationalist voters to the detriment of Alliance.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

Since its formation as a new seat in 1983, Lagan Valley has only ever had two MPs. When UUP leader James Molyneaux stood down at the 1997 General Election, Jeffrey Donaldson held the seat for the party – albeit with a smaller majority due to the DUP candidate Edwin Poots collecting some of the unionist votes. Resigning from the UUP just before Christmas 2003 and joining the DUP in the new year, Donaldson continued to hold the seat, winning a total of seven Westminster elections and is currently Northern Ireland’s longest serving MP with a large personal vote.

Alliance more than doubled its share of the vote between the 2017 and 2019 General Elections, with Sorcha Eastwood polling 28.8% of the vote in a record showing for the party in Lagan Valley.

2019 RESULTS

Jeffrey Donaldson (DUP) won with a vote share of 43.1% and a majority of 6,499 over Alliance’s Sorcha Eastwood.

COMMENTARY

Lagan Valley is one of the high profile battles between Alliance and the DUP. Upper Bann MLA Jonathan Buckley was nominated to try to hold the former DUP leader’s seat. Buckley was elected to the Assembly in 2017 and was briefly the Chief of Staff to Edwin Poots during his short leadership of the party. Jeffrey Donaldson has been the MP for Lagan Valley since 1997 and had built up a considerable personal vote. Donaldson was one of the top vote getters in the 2022 Assembly election, scoring the second highest number of first preferences of any MLA elected across Northern Ireland. Together with the nature of his departure from politics earlier this year, and the impact on the electorate, calling this seat is difficult.

The main challenger for Lagan Valley is Sorcha Eastwood who is making her second attempt. Having achieved Alliance’s best ever result in the constituency in 2019, the party gained a second Assembly member in Lagan Valley in 2022, and this seat is one of the ones most associated with the Alliance surge. Eastwood would be the first woman, and the first non-Unionist, to win Lagan Valley. Sinn Féin are not standing which opens up the potential for her to tap into their pool of votes.

Robbie Butler is standing for the third time. The UUP deputy leader is a high profile MLA and will be hoping to get a serious lift in his party’s vote to win the seat. UUP came second in the constituency in 2005, 2010 (under the banner of UCUNF), 2015 and 2017. Eastwood then pushed Butler into third place in 2019.

The TUV are in the race with Lorna Smyth. The party polled just under 7% of the vote in the 2022 Assembly election and their share of the vote could be critical in deciding whether the DUP hold the seat or lose it. Historically this has been a very safe seat for the DUP. However, a fractured or depressed unionist vote could allow Eastwood to float to the top.

The SDLP are running Simon Lee (a former Green Party councillor). Patricia Denvir is the candidate for his old party, the Greens.

PREDICTION

Too close to call.

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#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: Mid Ulster

#GE24 Constituency Profile: Mid Ulster

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

Mid Ulster is a large and very rural constituency with the Sperrin mountains on one side, the western shore of Lough Neagh on the other, and flat peatlands in-between. It includes the towns of Magherafelt, Maghera, Cookstown and Coalisland.

 

The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies means that Pomeroy is no longer in Mid Ulster constituency and has moved into West Tyrone. Donaghmore has moved in the opposite direction. A number of other wards (and partial wards) have moved between Mid Ulster and Fermanagh & South Tyrone and Upper Bann. Overall the electorate has decreased by around 400 voters.

 

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

This constituency has been home to political heavyweights like William McCrea, Martin McGuinness and Michelle O’Neill.

Sinn Féin have held the seat since the boundary changes that reshaped Mid Ulster with the creation of the West Tyrone constituency. Martin McGuinness displaced William McCrea in 1997 with a high-water mark turnout of 86.0%. The baton was passed to Francie Molloy in the 2013 by-election. While Sinn Féin’s majority dipped against the single independent unionist candidate Nigel Lutton that year, the party continues to dominate over unionist and nationalist rivals.

 

The SDLP typically come third behind the DUP, and the UUP’s best result in recent history was Sandra Overend’s second place at the 2015 General Election, beating DUP rival Ian McCrea by 853 votes. 

 

2019 RESULTS

Francie Molloy (Sinn Féin) was re-elected with a vote share of 45.9% and a majority of 9,537 over the DUP’s Keith Buchanan.

 

COMMENTARY

Incumbent Sinn Féin MP Francie Molloy is stepping down at this election. He is being replaced on the ballot by Cathal Mallaghan, a local councillor who has served as chair of the Mid Ulster District Council. Sinn Féin have consistently polled above 40% of the vote in this constituency for the past two decades. In 2019, there was an 8.6 percentage point fall in the party’s Mid Ulster share of the votes, with support shed to Alliance and the SDLP. 

 

The SDLP are fielding local Councillor Denise Johnston for the second time (polling 14.3% of the vote in 2019). 26 year old Padraic Farrell is the Alliance candidate. Mid Ulster remains elusive for Alliance with the party never having success at council or Assembly elections. They’ll be hoping to build on a boost in their numbers at the 2023 Assembly poll to challenge for a council seat in 2028.

 

Running for the DUP is local MLA Keith Buchanan, standing for the third time. The DUP came second in this seat in 2019 with 24.5% of the vote. This time there will be a TUV candidate on the ticket, Glenn Moore, along with Jay Basra for the UUP, creating further splits in the pro-union vote.

 

Also on the ballot is Alixandra Halliday (Aontú) and independent John Kelly.

 

PREDICTION

Sinn Féin hold.

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#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: Fermanagh and South Tyrone

#GE24 Constituency Profile: Fermanagh and South Tyrone

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

Fermanagh & South Tyrone is geographically the largest of the eighteen Northern Ireland constituencies and it is the most westerly constituency in the United Kingdom. As a result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies, there are changes at its eastern end, taking in Blackwatertown (from Newry & Armagh) along with the remainder of Ballysaggart, Killymeal, Moygashel and Mullaghmore. Ballygawley is now fully within Fermanagh & South Tyrone but no part of Loughgall remains within the constituency (now split between Mid Ulster and Newry & South Tyrone). Killyman is now fully within Mid Ulster. Overall the electorate has increased by around 1,700 voters. The new boundary is likely to marginally favour nationalism over unionism. However, in a marginal constituency like Fermanagh & South Tyrone, even a small change could tilt the electoral balance.  

 

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

The most marginal seat in Northern Ireland has an important place in republicanism and unionism. For the former, it was the seat won by Bobby Sands in the April 1981 by-election, beating the former UUP leader Harry West. Four months later, Sands’ election agent Owen Carron topped the poll in the by-election caused by Sands’ death. The UUP’s Ken Maginnis held the seat from 1983 until his retirement in 2001.

 

Other than a two year spell (2015-2017) with the UUP’s Tom Elliott as MP, Michelle Gildernew has held the seat since 2001 (winning with a majority of 53 votes). The 2010 result was even tighter, with a mere 4 vote majority over independent unionist candidate Rodney Connor.

 

Since 2010, only a single unionist candidate has contested Fermanagh & South Tyrone. The SDLP does not stand aside for Sinn Féin in this constituency. Alliance’s vote was up three and a half percentage points in this constituency in the 2019 General Election. 

 

2019 RESULTS

Michelle Gildernew (Sinn Féin) was re-elected with a vote share of 43.3% and a majority of 57 over the UUP’s Tom Elliott.

 

COMMENTARY

Running for Sinn Féin is first time candidate Pat Cullen, the former General Secretary of the Royal College of Nursing. She has a high profile due to industrial disputes in the health service with the Conservative government over the past number of years. She is favourite to retain Michelle Gildernew’s seat for the party.

 

After four outings at Westminster elections, Tom Elliott is not standing for the UUP. The party announced that their candidate would be Councillor Diana Armstrong, the daughter of former party leader, Harry West. Despite being upset that an independent unionist candidate had not been agreed, the TUV and DUP have decided not to stand candidates in Fermanagh & South Tyrone to unite the pro-union vote. This will be the fifth attempt in a row of a unity candidate attempting to win this seat. 

 

Also running: Paul Blake (SDLP), Eddie Roofe (Alliance), Carl Duffy (Aontú) and Gerry Cuillen (Cross Community Labour Alternative).

 

PREDICTION

Sinn Féin hold 

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NI Executive Legislative Programme 2024 announced

Economy

  • The Minister for the Economy will introduce legislation relating to his Department's financial powers, legislation to provide a new function for the Utility Regulator and legislation to make provision for the renewable heat incentive (RHI) scheme.

  • A financial assistance Bill will resolve issues with some of the Department for the Economy's financial powers.

  • A Utility Regulator decarbonisation powers Bill will provide the Utility Regulator with a new function to enable it to support the Department for the Economy in the delivery of the Executive's energy strategy and targets under the Climate Change Act 2022. An RHI scheme Bill will make provision for the future of the scheme.

Finance

  • The Minister of Finance will introduce the normal Budget Bills as part of the annual financial cycle and a financial provisions Bill to reconcile several routine financial matters across Departments.

  • The Minister will also introduce a Fiscal Council Bill to establish the Fiscal Council on a permanent, statutory basis in order to bring greater transparency and independent scrutiny to the current and future state of local public finances.

Communities

  • Defective Premises Bill and the Pensions (Extension of Automatic Enrolment) Bill were introduced in the Assembly on 20 May and have already passed Second Stage.

  • The Child Support Enforcement Bill is scheduled for introduction on 17 June and will make provision for the enforcement of child support and other maintenance in order to maintain parity with Westminster legislation.

  • To recognise, promote and protect British Sign Language (BSL) and Irish Sign Language (ISL), the Minister for Communities also proposes to introduce a sign language Bill.

Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs

  • The Minister of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs will focus his legislative plans on dilapidated buildings and altering provisions relating to EU food legacy.

  •  A dilapidation Bill will confer functions on councils to provide them with a modern, fit-for-purpose regime to tackle dilapidated and often dangerous buildings and sites.

  • In addition, the Minister proposes to introduce an agriculture Bill to provide powers to allow the Department to transition from or end the legacy EU fruit and vegetable aid scheme and EU agri-food information and promotion scheme as they apply locally.

Health

  • A public health Bill will replace and widen the scope of the Public Health Act 1967, which is over 50 years old and needs to be updated to make it fit for purpose. The adult protection Bill is a response to the Commissioner for Older People's 'Home Truths' investigation into Dunmurry Manor care home and the certified professional environmental auditor's independent review of safeguarding and care at Dunmurry Manor. It will introduce additional protections to underpin and strengthen the adult protection process and align it with best practice in other jurisdictions.

Justice

  • The Minister of Justice plans to introduce a justice Bill, primarily relating to the retention of fingerprints and DNA profiles and other provisions about child bail, remand and custody.

Infrastructure

  • The Minister for Infrastructure will introduce a water, flooding and sustainable drainage Bill to provide new and additional powers across seven areas of water, flooding and drainage legislation.

Executive Office

  • Introduce a Bill on a mother-and-baby homes, Magdalene laundries and workhouses public inquiry and financial redress. Its purpose is to establish a statutory public inquiry to investigate issues of individual, institutional, organisational and state responsibility for human rights violations experienced in mother-and-baby institutions, Magdalene laundries and workhouses between 1922 and 1995. It will further include provision for the Executive Office to establish a redress service to administer financial redress schemes.

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#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: North Down

#GE24 Constituency Profile: North Down

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies means that the overall North Down electorate has increased by around 3,300 voters. The main change is moving the rest of Garnerville from Belfast East into North Down. Unionist parties (particularly the DUP) as well as Alliance will expect to see their overall vote go up as a result: though the change in the proportional vote share will be minimal. The constituency has lost its part of Glen to Strangford and gained the rest of Ballygrainey.

 

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

North Down is a Westminster constituency where successful candidates have a history of retaining the seats for multiple terms. Jim Milfedder held the seat from 1970 through to 1995. Sylvia Hermon displaced incumbent UK Unionist Party’s MP Robert McCartney in the 2001 General Election and held the seat until her retirement in 2019 with a vote share varying between 41.2% and 63.3%. Her 2001 candidacy was the result of the UUP deselecting Peter Weir and was assisted by Alliance’s Stephen Farry standing aside to help oust McCartney.

 

As the DUP candidate, Alex Easton came second in 2015 (23.6% of the vote), second in 2017 (38.1%), and runner-up for a third time in 2019 (37.9%). Sylvia Hermon’s old vote split 3:1 in favour of Alliance over the UUP, propelling Stepohen Farry to victory in 2019. 

 

2019 RESULTS

Stephen Farry (Alliance) won with a vote share of 45.2% and a majority of 2,968 over the DUP’s Alex Easton.

 

COMMENTARY

This seat was the shock result of 2019 with the departure of Lady Sylvia Hermon creating an opening for Alliance’s Stephen Farry to achieve a huge 36 percentage point swing to become the MP. This was only the second time in Northern Ireland’s history that Alliance had won a Westminster election, and the third party member to sit on the green benches in the House of Commons. (Stratton Mills won North Belfast for UUP in 1972, joined Alliance in 1973, and retired at the February 1974 election.)

If Farry gets re-elected he will make history as the only Alliance MP to win a second term. Challenging him again is Alex Easton who is now running as an independent. Easton won an Assembly seat as an independent in 2022. Easton is endorsed in this General Election by the TUV and the DUP.

Despite a majority of the North Down electorate voting for unionist candidates at every Westminster election since 1885, the last time a mainstream unionist party won the seat was 2005. That’s unlikely to change in July 2024.

Colonel Tim Collins is running for the UUP. At the last Westminster election the party scored 12.1% of the vote, a far cry from their 56.0% share in the 2001 poll. 

Unlike 2019, the Greens (Barry McKee) and the SDLP (Deirdre Vaughan) are on the North Down ballot paper, which means a split on the non-Unionist side of the vote. North Down is one of the Green Party’s strongest constituencies in Northern Ireland. Sinn Féin are not running a candidate.

Independent candidate Chris Carter is also running: for more than two decades he’s regularly been on North Down Assembly and General Election ballot papers..  

 

PREDICTION

Too close to call.

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#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: Belfast North

#GE24 Constituency Profile: Belfast North

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies means that four formerly split wards are now fully aligned within Belfast North, and five split wards have been lost to neighbouring Belfast West (Shankill, Woodvale) and South Antrim (Burnthill, Carnmoney, Fairview) constituencies. An initial proposal to move the rest of Abbey ward into East Antrim was dropped in light of how the railway track splits the ward and blocks access from one side to the other. Overall the electorate has decreased by around 950 voters. The boundary changes are likely to result in a slight drop in unionist voters and a small gain in those voting for nationalist parties and others.

 

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

 

Back in 1997, the UUP’s Cecil Walker had a majority of 13,024 in Belfast North. The DUP’s Nigel Dodds maintained the seat at Westminster elections from 2011 with smaller majorities until Sinn Fein’s John Finucane won with a majority of 1,943 in 2019. While the macro level story is one of nationalism gradually growing as unionism shrinks, there has been an even more pronounced change within nationalism. The SDLP polled between 20-21% at the turn of the century and dropped at every general election to end up with just 4.5% of the vote when the party last stood for Westminster in 2017.

 2019 RESULTS

 John Finucane (Sinn Féin) won with a vote share of 47.1% and a majority of 1,943 over the DUP’s Nigel Dodds.

COMMENTARY

North Belfast was one of the most watched races in 2017 and 2019. John Finucane is running for a second term under the Sinn Féin banner. This was the party’s only gain in 2019, and Finucane will be keen to capitalise on strong results in the 2022 Assembly and 2023 local elections. The Sinn Féin candidate benefits from the boundary changes, which see some Unionist-leaning parts of the constituency move into Belfast West. The mix of strong results since 2019, boundary changes and incumbency all bodes well for John Finucane. 

 

Philip Brett polled strongly in the 2022 Assembly election and is regarded as the new face of the DUP in the area and is taking on the mantle from Nigel Dodds in this Westminster election. Boundary changes make it difficult for him to win back the seat, as areas like Shankill and Woodvale that would have been strong for his predecessor are no longer part of the constituency. Another challenge will be the unionist votes that leak to the TUV who are running a candidate – Mid & East Antrim Councillor David Clarke who quit the DUP in January – for the first time at a Westminster election. Indeed this is the first time since 2010 that more than one pro-union party has stood in the constituency. 

 

Alliance’s Nuala McAllister is running again. A high-profile Assembly gain for her party in 2022, McAllister will seek to cement that success. The Greens will return to the ballot paper after standing aside in 2019, with party leader Senator Mal O’Hara running who lost his Belfast City Council seat in May 2023. Councillor Carl Whyte will be on the ballot for the SDLP. Both parties will be looking to make up ground lost over the longer term in Belfast North. 

 

All three candidates on the 2019 ballot kept their deposit. That’s unlikely to be the case for every candidate in 2024!

(Published before the candidate nominations closed on 7 June.)

 

PREDICTION

Sinn Féin hold. 

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#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: Belfast South and Mid Down

#GE24 Constituency Profile: Belfast South and Mid Down

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

Belfast South is the only constituency to change name as part of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies, acknowledging the significant geographic extension. The constituency has expanded geographically and now takes in the Belvoir, Blackstaff, Carryduff East, Central and Knockbracken wards, as well as Drumbo (formerly Lagan Valley), Moneyreagh and Saintfield (both transferring in from South Down). The split wards of Cregagh, Hillfoot, Merok and Woodstock transferred out into Belfast East, and the Falls ward now fully lies within Belfast West. Overall the electorate has increased by around 1,850 voters. The boundary changes are likely to bring in extra votes for unionists and others with a loss of nationalist voters.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

Rev Martin Smyth (UUP) held the seat after winning the by-election caused by the murder of Robert Bradford. When Smyth retired, the SDLP’s Alasdair McDonnell won in 2005 against a split unionist vote and retained the seat until the DUP’s breakthrough in 2017 with Emma Little-Pengelly and the party’s base Belfast South performance to date.

This constituency is often competitive between three or four parties. Alasdair McDonnell won in 2015 with a mere 24.5% of the vote, the smallest winning vote share anywhere in the UK. Running against a smaller field with Greens and Sinn Féin standing aside, Claire Hanna recaptured the seat for the SDLP with a massive 57.2% of the vote in 2019. The Alliance vote dropped by 4 percentage points, the only constituency to see a swing away from Alliance at the last general election.

2019 RESULTS

Claire Hanna (SDLP) won with a vote share of 57.2% and a majority of 15,401 over the DUP’s Emma Little-Pengelly.

COMMENTARY

Claire Hanna is running for a second term in this constituency. Having hoped to capitalise on their 2019 general election success, the party had a disappointing 2022 Assembly result in South Belfast, only getting one candidate elected. In this year’s general election, the incumbent SDLP candidate will benefit from the fact that Sinn Féin are once again choosing not to run in the Westminster poll. Former Green Party leader and Belfast South MLA Clare Bailey has personally endorsed Hanna for a second term. The benefit of incumbency plus the lack of competition on the nationalist side of the political aisle is very good news for Claire Hanna and makes her the clear favourite.

The Greens have reversed course from 2019 when they didn’t stand a candidate. They are seeking to regain ground lost in the 2022 Assembly election, running the outgoing Deputy Lord Mayor Ainé Groogan. This will make a small dent in the majority Claire Hanna received in 2019 (which was the second highest in NI after her party leader Colum Eastwood’s performance in Foyle).

Another high profile challenge will come from the Alliance Party and first term MLA and former Lord Mayor Kate Nicholl. Nicholl was a high profile Assembly gain for the party in 2022. While her party performed poorly in 2019 in South Belfast, they will be hoping changes in the boundaries and the momentum from 2022 will lift the party’s vote in the constituency.

The DUP, which held this seat from 2017 to 2019 are running Councillor Tracy Kelly. Well known in her council district, this is her first constituency-wide battle. She faces minor competition on the unionist side of the political aisle from the UUP’s Michael Henderson (who lost his deposit in 2017 and 2019). The TUV are running a former DUP staffer, Dr Dan Boucher.

(Published before the candidate nominations closed on 7 June.)

PREDICTION

Claire Hanna to be re-elected.

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#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: Strangford

#GE24 Constituency Profile: Strangford

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies has led to a reconfiguration of the border between Strangford and South Down and the overall electorate has increased by over 3,500 voters. An initial proposal to move most of Downpatrick up into Strangford was dropped. The proposal to move Ballynahinch and Kilmore into South Down was also reversed. However, the Drumaness moves into Strangford. Most of the Strangford ward (which includes Strangford town, Castleward and Bishops Court) is now back in South Down having formerly been in South Down. And the Quoile ward is now split between the two constituencies. 

Moneyreagh and Saintfield were lost to Belfast South. Crossgar and Killyleagh, Derryboy and Glen now fully lie within Strangford. However, some other formerly split wards have been aligned to neighbouring constituencies: Knockbracken and Carryduff East to Belfast South, Ballygrainey to North Down, Ballyward to South Down.

Overall there is likely to be a pronounced drop in unionist voters, a slight dip in others, and a big boost of support for nationalism. While the change in voter base won’t be so noticeable at Westminster, the shake-up is likely to make nationalism competitive for a seat at the next Assembly election. 

 PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

For decades, Strangford’s General Election count has been a fight between the largest two parties in unionism. That changed in 2017 when Alliance (14.7%) beat the UUP (11.4%) to second place, with Kellie Armstrong nearly doubling her vote share in 2019 (28.4%). 

COMMENTARY

Strangford has been a safe seat for the DUP since it flipped from the UUP in 2001. Jim Shannon took over the seat from Iris Robinson following her resignation in 2010 and has held the seat with comfortable majorities ever since. In recent elections, this has become a seat with big swings. In 2017 there was a big swing to the DUP. Two years later and there was a big swing away from them, the second largest swing away from the DUP (14.8 percentage points) in any constituency. (Lagan Valley saw a 16.4 percentage point drop in DUP support.) The party will be confident that they can retain this seat. Still, it will also be mindful that the boundary changes will put pressure on the combined unionist vote, whose share has fallen at every election since 2001.

Councillor Michelle Guy is running for Alliance at Westminster for the first time. Alliance scored a big swing in 2019 with Kellie Armstrong. Since then they’ve gained an Assembly seat in 2022 with Nick Mathison. Guy will hope that voters transferred in from South Down will help her take more ground for Alliance in Strangford.

The UUP is running Councillor Richard Smart. The UUP once dominated this constituency with John Taylor holding the seat from the constituency's inception in 1983 until he retired from Westminster in 2001. Since then its vote has collapsed by three quarters, polling just 10.7% at the last general election.

The TUV are running their deputy leader and Belfast City Councillor, Ron McDowell. Party colleague Stephen Cooper came close to winning the final Assembly seat in 2022 – he fell short due to a lack of transfers – and the TUV strength in the area together with any NI-wide swing away from the DUP will shrink Jim Shannon’s majority.

Will Polland is the SDLP’s candidate. Strangford was a disappointment for the party in 2022, where they had high hopes for an Assembly gain. Boundary changes bring into play a nationalist seat, and this July poll will be an opportunity to prepare the ground for a serious challenge at the next Assembly Election due in 2027. Sinn Féin will also be running a candidate.

(Published before the candidate nominations closed on 7 June.)

PREDICTION

DUP hold.

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Baker Tilly Mooney Moore: We must unearth hidden talent to address concerning economic inactivity rates

Writes Karen Corry, Senior HR Consultant at Baker Tilly Mooney Moore. Article first published in the Irish News, Tuesday 28 May

Karen Corry, Senior HR Consultant, Baker Tilly Mooney Moore

The latest release of labour market statistics released by the Office for National Statistics highlights a concerning trend: the UK’s total economic inactivity rate lies at 22.1%, the highest it has been since September 2015. Conversely, Northern Ireland’s rate stands at its lowest since February 2020, but is still much higher than the UK rate at 26.6%.

The gender gap in economic activity is a pronounced one, in both Northern Ireland and Great Britain. The male inactivity rates stand at 18.7% and 22.9% in Britain and Northern Ireland respectively, while the inactivity rates among women stand at 25.2% and 30.1% respectively.

Increasing inactivity rates in the UK and Northern Ireland’s long-standing highlight the need for an innovative approach to recruitment by employers. As a means of unearthing the hidden talent with these statistics, employers have been redefining flexibility by offering remote work, part-time schedules, and adaptable hours. This approach not only attracts candidates balancing caregiving duties, but also accommodates people with disabilities, neurodivergent individuals, older workers, stay-at-home parents, long-term unemployed, and those seeking a better work-life balance.

Still, more can be done: by partnering with community organisations, conducting targeted outreach at job fairs, and leveraging online platforms designed for underrepresented groups, employers can unlock access to previously undiscovered talent pools and lead to the discovery of individuals with valuable skills and expertise, even among those not actively seeking employment.

Crafting inclusive job descriptions is another critical component of this paradigm shift. By removing language or requirements that inadvertently exclude certain groups, employers can signal their commitment to attracting a broader range of candidates with varied backgrounds and perspectives. Skill-based hiring is also gaining popularity, with organisations prioritising skills and competencies over degrees or titles allowing them to find candidates with valuable experience. This has been seen through some companies dropping minimum degree classification requirements or dropping degree requirements altogether. Investing in internal training and development programs is not just about upskilling—it's about unlocking real potential.

Diversity and inclusion initiatives are also foundational to supportive workplace cultures, ensuring all employees feel valued and supported. Providing accessible facilities and flexible interview formats is essential, not just legally but morally imperative, in uncovering hidden talents.

The traditional recruitment model is evolving as organisations shift towards a new skill based operating model that places skills as the central focus rather than specific qualifications and job titles. This transformation goes beyond mere position fulfilment; it aims to leverage diverse perspectives and talents to fuel innovation, nurture creativity, and propel organisational success in the future.

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