#AE22 Brown O'Connor NI Assembly Election Constituency Profile: South Antrim

#AE22 Constituency Profile: South Antrim

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

  • The South Antrim constituency hugs the northern and eastern shores of Lough Neagh, taking in the urban populations of Antrim, Ballyclare, Carnmoney, Crumlin, Glenavy, Mallusk, Randalstown and Templepatrick. Belfast International Airport, Antrim Area Hospital and Randox are major employers within the constituency.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

  • DUP took just over a third of the first preference votes in 2017 which was only enough to see two of their three MLAs re-elected.

  • Pam Cameron is the only woman to be elected to the Assembly from South Antrim.

  • UUP nearly always take more than 20% of the first preference vote.

SINCE 2017

  • John Blair was co-opted to replace David Ford in 2018.

  • Trevor Clarke (who lost his seat in May 2017) was co-opted to replace Paul Girvan following his election to Westminster in June 2017.

THE DAY OF THE COUNT

  • The first candidate wasn’t elected until stage four in 2011. A small swing to Sinn Féin, not to mention just two DUP names on the ballot this time, could mean one or two candidates come in over the quota in the first stage of the count.

  • Given the proximity to the TUV leader’s constituency, can the TUV significantly push through their previous peak vote share of 3.8% in an Assembly election in South Antrim?

COMMENTARY

South Antrim is a strong unionist constituency with the pro-union parties taking well over 50% of the first preference vote in Assembly elections and winning a majority of the seats in recent elections.

The DUP have a solid two seats in the constituency. Until 2017, they held three seats, but with the reduction in size of the Assembly they lost out despite balancing their vote incredibly well. Incumbent MLAs, Pam Cameron and Trevor Clarke are standing again for the party.

The UUP are running former leader Steve Aiken alongside Councillor Paul Michael. On the current numbers, whilst this is one of the party’s better-performing constituencies – Danny Kinahan polled well over 12,000 votes in both the 2017 and 2019 General Elections – the UUP are only likely to win a single seat.

Junior Minister Declan Kearney is standing again for Sinn Féin in what is a relatively safe seat for the party. The SDLP will be running local councillor Roisin Lynch once again. The 2010 boundary changes and the drop to five seats make it a hard road to win back the seat the SDLP lost in 2011. But with Declan Kearney already elected, two thirds of Lynch’s transfers upon exclusion in stage seven of the count brought the Alliance candidate home in 2017.

Alliance are just running one candidate despite a solid share of the vote and being transfer friendly. John Blair is running for election for the first time at the Assembly level. This is a safe seat and Blair should have no issue returning to Stormont.

Watch out to see if the TUV’s Mel Lucas can make a strong showing and eat into the DUP’s share of the vote.

PREDICTIONS

  • No change: Two DUP, One UUP, One Alliance, One Sinn Féin.

#AE22 Brown O'Connor NI Assembly Election Constituency Profile: Belfast West

#AE22 Constituency Profile: Belfast West

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

  • Belfast West has the second smallest electorate (according to 1 April figures) and the fifth smallest population (according to the 2011 census results).

  • Two thirds of its area is urban, while the rural third takes in the Colin Glen Forest Park and the slopes heading up to Divis and Black Mountain.

  • Across the 18 constituencies, the 2011 Census reports that Belfast West has the highest population proportion brought up in a Catholic community background (80.1%) and the lowest proportion from a Protestant community background (16.7%).

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

  • Sinn Féin took 61.8% of the vote at the 2017 Assembly Election, their best share across the 18 constituencies.

  • People Before Profit’s support slumped, down 8 percentage points on their 2016 peak.

  • SDLP increased their vote by 1.3 percentage points but still lost their only MLA, Alex Attwood who had represented Belfast West since 1998.

  • DUP polled 10.1% of the vote in 2017.

SINCE 2017

  • Alex Maskey (Sinn Féin) is not seeking re-election. However, he will still be in the Speaker’s chair until a new one is elected as the first item of business after May’s election.

  • Aisling Reilly (Sinn Féin) replaced Fra McCann as MLA in October 2021.

THE DAY OF THE COUNT

  • Despite the presence of 12 candidates on the ballot, Belfast West was an exciting but compact four stage count in 2017. This year with 17 candidates, it will be slower to resolve the final seats.

  • Sinn Féin polled 3.7 quotas of first preference votes in 2017.

  • Unionist parties polled two thirds of a quota of first preferences with very little scope to attract transfers.

  • Watch the gap between the DUP and SDLP candidates over the first few stages of the count. In 2017, the SDLP couldn’t quite catch up before their candidate was excluded. If they poll better than the DUP in May, then it could be game on for Paul Doherty to be in the running for the final seat.

COMMENTARY

Belfast West is a Sinn Féin heartland that has returned four or more seats for the party at every election since 1998. Two of the party’s best known representatives are not going to be on the ballot this time. Alex Maskey (the Speaker of the Assembly) is standing down. Fra McCann stepped away last year. Councillor Danny Baker and Aisling Reilly will be on the ballot alongside incumbent MLAs Pat Sheehan and Órlaithí Flynn. In 2017, the party performed incredibly well achieving a 7.3 percentage point swing toward them. 

The second party in Belfast West is People Before Profit. Gerry Carroll topped the poll in 2016 with a breakthrough 1.6 quotas of first preference votes. On the back of this, the party ran two candidates in 2017, but a third of their vote share slipped away, picking up less than a quota of first preferences. This May, despite an uptick in the most recent Westminster poll, People Before Profit is playing it safe and running a single candidate (Gerry Carroll) in Belfast West. However, his transfers could be critical in deciding the final outcome.

Having been introduced at the 2019 General Election, Paul Doherty is running for the first time at the Assembly level trying to regain the SDLP seat that was lost in 2017. Doherty is running a high profile campaign and this is one of the party’s top targets.

The last seat in this constituency is always a battle, and up to three parties will be fighting for it.

Frank McCoubrey is contesting Belfast West for the DUP for the third time. The party have not held a seat in the constituency since 2007.

A win for Paul Doherty would need a mix of strong transfers from People Before Profit and to be ahead of the DUP candidate after the smaller candidates have been excluded. It’s a stretch, but could make Belfast West an exciting race to watch.

PREDICTIONS

  • Three Sinn Féin, One People Before Profit

  • Last seat is a battle between Sinn Féin and SDLP, with DUP as an outside chance.

Eversheds Sutherland announces Deborah Archer as Banking and Finance Partner

Deborah Archer, Banking and Finance Partner, Eversheds Sutherland; and Alan Connell, Managing Partner, Eversheds Sutherland Ireland.

Leading global law firm Eversheds Sutherland has appointed Deborah Archer as Banking and Finance Partner in its Belfast office.

Deborah brings over 20 years’ experience advising local and international financial institutions, industrial and provident societies, and corporate entities and individuals across various sectors, on all aspects of borrowing and lending. Deborah is dual qualified and can practice in Northern Ireland and England and Wales.  Deborah has previous experience in a number of local law firms including Tughans, Cleaver Fulton Rankin, and MKB Law, and comes to Eversheds Sutherland from PwC, where she was part of the NewLaw Belfast leadership team.

The senior appointment comes during a period of sustained growth and recent promotions for Eversheds Sutherland in Belfast and across the island of Ireland, with the appointment of a Banking and Finance Partner for the Belfast office evidencing the firm’s full-service strategy and dynamic recent growth to meet client demands. Based at Montgomery House in Belfast city centre, this latest appointment adds to the firm’s existing offer in Northern Ireland of sectors like employment and immigration, litigation and dispute resolution, and real estate and commercial property.

Speaking upon her appointment, Deborah Archer, Banking and Finance Partner, Eversheds Sutherland said:

“I am incredibly proud to be joining Eversheds Sutherland, as this is an exciting time to be heading up a new Banking and Finance division in Belfast. Northern Ireland is increasingly carving out a global reputation for financial services, fintech, international banking, and compliance and risk management. Coming out of the pandemic, there are serious opportunities to invest and expand in Northern Ireland.

“Eversheds Sutherland, as a firm, is well placed to assist local and international businesses with their growth, secure investment in Northern Ireland, and ultimately help drive economic development. Our message of being connected globally but committed locally is the driving force of the team and I am looking forward to tapping into the wider Eversheds Sutherland network to deliver for our clients and businesses throughout Northern Ireland.” 

Alan Connell, Managing Partner, Eversheds Sutherland Ireland, added:

“I am delighted to welcome Deborah to Eversheds Sutherland and to be expanding our full-service practice offering in Northern Ireland. Deborah’s experience speaks for itself, and she will be a significant addition to our leadership team across the island of Ireland. The trading environment, particularly as we emerge from the pandemic, is increasingly volatile and as such, businesses need clear, strong advice they can trust. Experienced legal leaders like Deborah are vital to the world-class offering provided by the entire team here at Eversheds Sutherland, and this appointment highlights the expertise, skill, and value we provide to not only meet, but to stay ahead of our clients’ needs.”

Brown O'Connor Communications Weekly Look Ahead: Week Commencing 18 April 2022

Forward Look                                

  • Alliance is expected to launch its Assembly Election manifesto on Wednesday at the CIYMS in East Belfast, while the SDLP is expected to launch its health manifesto next week.

  • MPs will vote on Tuesday to decide if an investigation should be launched to find if the Prime Minister misled the House of Commons over the extent of lockdown parties in Downing Street.

  • The Privy Council has ordered that Parliament should not be prorogued no earlier than the 28 April and no later than the 4 May ahead of its State opening on 10 May.

  • A by-election will be in the coming weeks after Imran Ahmad Khan resigned as the MP for Wakefield.

  • The Irish Government published its updated Trade and Investment Strategy which sets out how Ireland will grow sustainably ahead of 2026. The strategy, along with its seven top actions, can be viewed here: LINK

  • Ahead of the Assembly election, UTV will hold a leaders debate on 1 May. The BBC will host a debate on 3 May.

  • The Irish Cabinet has signed off a proposal to increase the number of TDs in the Dáil by between nine and nineteen. A final decision will made after the completion of the 2022 census.

  • Queen’s University Belfast is to host a two-day event next year to mark the 25 Anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement.

  • Belfast Chamber of Commerce Business Awards will take place on 21 October at the Crowne Plaza Hotel, Belfast. More information can be found here: LINK

  • Chris Mason will replace Laura Kuenssberg as the political editor of BBC News next month.

  • The Northern Ireland Affairs Committee will meet on Wednesday to receive briefings on how the Governments Borders Bill could impact North-South tourism.

  • Manufacturing Month, which showcases the potential and enhances the excellence of Northern Ireland’s manufacturing sector will return in May.

Other Stories this week

  • DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson MP launched the first point of its five-point plan for Northern Ireland. It focuses on the party’s commitments to fix the NHS. To view, click here: LINK

  • The Alliance Party outlined its environmental policies ahead of the Assembly election on 5 May. Policies include the establishment of an independent Environmental Protection Agency.

  • The SDLP launched its election campaign in West Belfast on Monday.

  • Former South Down MLA Jim Wells resigned from the DUP after endorsing South Down TUV candidate Harold McKee.

  • Organisations from the public and private sector launched ‘Renewed Ambition’ to showcase Belfast’s proposition to the real estate investment community. More information can be viewed here: LINK

  • The Department for the Economy published the analysis of the Northern Ireland High Street Scheme which found that 62% of transactions were made in businesses that were closed by regulations in 2020. The full report can be found here: LINK

  • A report by the Irish National Economic and Social Council found that there is support for an all-island approach to economic, social, and environmental challenges. The report can be viewed here: LINK

Upcoming key political and business events

  • 28 April, CBI’s An Audience with Northern Ireland’s Political Leaders, The Great Hall Queen’s University

  • 28 April, Belfast Chamber’s Spring Networking Reception, Whites Garden

  • 29 April, Londonderry Chamber Pre-Election Hustings, Ulster University, Derry

  • 3 May, Manufacturing Month 22 Launch Breakfast, KPMG, The Soloist, Belfast

  • 5 May, Northern Ireland Assembly Election

  • 10 May, State Opening of Parliament

  • 12 May, Anchor High Summit, Manufacturing NI, Galgorm Hotel and Spa

  • 26 May, Belfast Telegraph Business Awards, Crowne Plaza Hotel, Belfast

  • 21 June, House of Commons rises for Summer Recess

  • 30 June, Irish News Workplace and Employment Awards, Titanic Belfast

Consultations

#AE22 Brown O'Connor NI Assembly Constituency Profile: Mid Ulster

#AE22 Constituency Profile: Mid Ulster

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

  • Mid Ulster is a large and very rural constituency with the Sperrin mountains on one side, the western shore of Lough Neagh on the other, and flat peatlands in-between. It includes the towns of Magherafelt, Maghera, Cookstown and Coalisland.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

  • Sinn Féin achieved a record result in 2017 with 52.8% of the vote.

  • DUP vote share dipped after the 2007 Assembly election but recovered to 19.3% in 2017.

  • The UUP’s vote fell in 2017, and in the switch from six to five seat constituencies – with just 9.1% of the vote – Sandra Overend couldn’t catch up with Patsy McGlone, and the second unionist seat was lost.

  • Second highest turnout in Northern Ireland in 2017 election.

SINCE 2017

  • Sinn Féin’s Ian Milne stepped down from the Assembly at the end of 2018 to prepare to return to local government as a councillor and was replaced by Emma Sheerin.

  • UUP have a new candidate, Meta Graham, trying to re-take a seat for the party.

  • Alliance were just shy of 8% vote share in the 2019 Westminster election, tripling previous recent results.

THE DAY OF THE COUNT

  • Likely to one of the fastest counts again this May, though an upturn in Alliance and TUV first preferences could add an extra stage or two to the process if multiple exclusions are not possible.

  • Whilst seat shifts are not expected, this is a constituency to keep an eye on for vote share. In 2017, Sinn Féin attracted just over three quotas of first preference votes, and the DUP’s candidate polled well over a quota.

COMMENTARY

This is a Sinn Féin heartland constituency that has been home to two deputy First Ministers, Martin McGuinness and Michelle O’Neill. The party has always polled above 40% of first preference votes in this constituency and in recent elections has been consistently north of 45% giving the party a solid three seats.

Michelle O’Neill leads the ticket in May for the second time as the vice president of the party. Linda Dillon is seeking a third term as an MLA and Emma Sheerin is standing for the first time seeking a mandate in her own right after being co-opted in December 2018. Of the eight constituencies in which Sinn Fein holds multiple seats, this is probably the safest and most likely to return all their candidates.

Patsy McGlone is seeking his sixth term as an MLA for the area. While the SDLP’s vote share in Mid Ulster has been slowly shrinking (while Sinn Féin’s is growing) the sitting deputy Speaker of the Assembly is defending a relatively safe seat for the party. In 2017, some expected this seat to be a fight between the SDLP and the UUP, but McGlone’s margin was over 650 votes in the final stage with Sinn Féin surpluses undistributed and still in reserve.

The DUP’s Keith Buchanan currently holds the only Unionist seat in the constituency. Despite the fortunes of party colleagues in other constituencies, his personal vote increased by over 2,000 votes in 2017. The party have regularly polled above 15% of the vote in recent elections and have a comfortable margin in Mid Ulster. 

Alliance’s Claire Hackett will be anxious to find out if her party colleague’s success at the 2019 Westminster poll can be repeated.

PREDICTIONS

  • Three Sinn Féin, One DUP, One SDLP

Allstate NI partners with the NOW Group to deliver placements for individuals with learning difficulties and autism

Allstate NI HR Business Partner Bronagh Major, Joanne Keown, Training and Development Officer at Autism NI, David Dempster, Infrastructure Vulnerability Analyst at Allstate NI, David Hyland, D&IS Senior Manager at Allstate NI and John Healy, Vice President and Managing Director of Allstate NI.

Leading technology employer Allstate NI has partnered with the NOW Group to deliver work placements in the digital sector for individuals with learning difficulties and autism.

The NOW Group Digital Academy is a 12-week placement plan that gives hands-on experience in the jobs of the future at Allstate NI’s Contact Centre, which manages technical queries from Allstate employees around the world.

It comes as the IT company enhances its diversity and inclusion practices to ensure underrepresented members of society are both a part of the company and have a voice in all policies and decisions.

A partner of Autism NI, Northern Ireland’s main autism charity, Allstate also delivered training courses to over 50 employees in 2021 aimed at developing their understanding of autism. This was acknowledged with the Autism NI Impact Award, presented to Allstate in March 2022 for creating a supportive and inclusive work environment for autistic people through workplace improvements. The award also recognises Allstate’s commitment to providing individualised customer service that assists people with autism, as well as creating a culture in which they feel safe disclosing an autism statement.

Allstate is supporting the development of Employee Resource Groups that feed into company strategies. These include Allcare, a network of employees who are carers outside of work, the LGBTQ+ network Embrace, the Ausome group, which works to raise awareness of autism within the company and Women in Technology Allstate.

The initiatives come after Allstate became the first local company awarded Silver Status by Diversity Mark Northern Ireland in 2020 and was named a Stonewall Gold Employer for creating an inclusive and welcoming work environment for all earlier this year.

Allstate NI Ausome Committee member Sabrina Lynch said:

“Ensuring everyone feels comfortable, supported, and represented in the workplace is everyone’s responsibility. Within the Ausome Committee, we are working to educate, raise awareness and support those affected by autism. It is refreshing to be allocated time that we can dedicate to training staff, adjusting our environment, and ensuring appropriate customer service processes to make Allstate a comfortable place for all.”

Vice President and Managing Director of Allstate NI John Healy said:

“Inclusive diversity has long been a core value of Allstate. In 2022, we are working to ensure it is the norm across all of our operations and hope this will inspire a step-change in how we do things. We believe it is important to hold each other accountable to embrace collective differences and individual characteristics, values and beliefs, along with the backgrounds and experiences that give us fresh perspective and purpose.”

“Operating in this way helps everyone. It makes our people feel welcome, and we in turn work harder, share better, and produce more innovative ideas when we are accepted for who we are. Our success comes from many different voices, and we are committed to ensuring each one is recognised and represented.”

#AE22 Brown O'Connor NI Assembly Election Constituency Profile: South Down

#AE22 Constituency Profile: South Down

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

  • South Down is a large constituency which includes the Mountains of Mourne, the northern shore of Carlingford Lough, Kilkeel, Newcastle, Warrenpoint and the village of Strangford. Downpatrick is the largest town with a population of just over ten thousand.

  • The hamlet of Katesbridge is in the north-western part of the constituency and is often mentioned in early morning weather reports as the coldest location in Northern Ireland (due to its situation in drumlin countryside).

  • The constituency has the third largest electorate eligible to vote in May’s poll.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

  • Sinn Féin achieved a record result in 2017 with 38.6% of the vote, continuing the trend of increasing their vote at every Assembly election.

  • Meanwhile, SDLP fell below 30% of the vote for the first time since 1998 (when they won 3 of the 6 seats).

  • DUP bucked the trend with a 3.5% increase in vote share.

  • Alliance had a record result of 9.2% at the last Assembly election (stretching that to a vote share of 13.9% at the 2019 Westminster poll).

SINCE 2017

  • Sinn Féin MLA Chris Hazzard was elected to Westminster at the 2017 General Election.

  • Emma Rogan was co-opted into his seat but was de-selected by the party for May’s election.

  • Sinéad Bradley is not standing again for the SDLP.

  • Jim Wells was deselected by the DUP and is not seeking re-election. He has recently quit the DUP and declared his support for the TUV candidate.

THE DAY OF THE COUNT

  • If the first preference tallies for Sinn Féin and the SDLP fall below 60%, that’s likely to favour Alliance picking up the fifth seat.

  • To date, Alliance have never beaten 10% vote share at an Assembly election in South Down, and their high water mark at Westminster was 13.9%.

  • In 2017, there was a gap of three and a half thousand first preference votes between the DUP and UUP, and also between the UUP and TUV candidates. Will voters punish the DUP for deselecting Jim Wells? And will Harold McKee attract support from UUP and Jim Wells to TUV?

COMMENTARY

South Down has always been a hotly contested seat within nationalism since 1998, with Sinn Féin and the SDLP picking up more than 60% of the votes and a majority of the seats.

Sinn Féin outpolled the SDLP for the first time at Assembly level in 2017 and will be seeking to hold that position. Chris Hazzard was returned to Westminster in 2019 but with a big swing of over 7% away from him. Alliance and Aontú were the beneficiaries. Hazzard’s replacement on the Assembly benches upon becoming an MP was Emma Rogan. Subsequently de-selected by the party, local councillor Cathy Mason takes Rogan’s place on May’s ballot paper, running alongside incumbent MLA, Sinéad Ennis.

With the SDLP’s Sinéad Bradley not seeking re-election, Councillor Karen McKevitt has put herself forward for a return to Stormont, having served there 2011–2016. She’ll be on the ticket beside incumbent Colin McGrath, who held his seat in 2017 by 738 votes over Alliance’s Patrick Brown. With Brown’s strong Westminster performance in 2019, Alliance will be fighting to take control of the second SDLP seat.

It’s all change among the unionist candidates. Incumbent DUP MLA Jim Wells was not selected and is replaced with Councillor Diane Forsythe who bested former party leader Edwin Poots for the South Down nomination. She will be the favourite to hold the only unionist seat in the constituency.

TUV candidate Harold McKee was the UUP MLA for South Down from 2016-2017. He left the UUP in October 2021, blaming Doug Beattie’s promotion of “liberal issues”. Jim Wells is backing him at this election. Councillor Jill Macauley is running for the UUP.

PREDICTIONS

  • Two Sinn Fein, One DUP, One SDLP

  • The fifth seat is likely to flip from the SDLP to Alliance.

#AE22 Brown O'Connor NI Assembly Election Constituency Profile: East Londonderry

#AE22 Constituency Profile: East Londonderry

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

  • The towns of Coleraine and Limavady are in the East Londonderry constituency, along with popular coastal destinations like Portrush, Portstewart, and Castlerock.

  • According to the 2011 Census, 53% of the population are from a Protestant community background, while 42% are from a Catholic community background.

  • East Londonderry is seven times larger (in terms of area) and a much more rural constituency than neighbouring Foyle.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

  • SDLP vote has declined in the previous two Assembly elections making the seat more marginal.

  • Sinn Féin have increased their vote in this constituency at every Assembly election but have narrowly missed out on winning two seats in recent elections.

  • DUP has been polling over 30% of the vote in every Assembly election since 2003.

  • UUP MLA David McClarty resigned from the party when he was deselected in January 2011 and held the seat as an independent: the UUP have never been able to win it back.

SINCE 2017

  • Cara Hunter replaced SDLP’s John Dallat as MLA following his death in May 2020.

  • DUP’s George Robinson is not standing again for re-election.

THE DAY OF THE COUNT

  • East Londonderry was one of two constituency counts which stretched across 12 stages before electing the final candidates. With a similar-sized field of candidates in May, this year’s count may well be as long and drawn out.

  • The candidate with the highest number of first preferences – Sinn Féin’s Caoimhe Archibald – was still over a thousand votes short of the quota at the end of the first stage, and had to wait until stage 12 to finally be elected.

  • The DUP polled exactly two quotas of first preferences, split over three candidates in 2017. Will they hold their vote share in May?

  • Will independent Claire Sugden retain her 12% vote share against Alliance’s strong showing in recent opinion polls?

COMMENTARY

There’s an independent streak to East Londonderry, with ex-UUP independent unionist Boyd Douglas winning an Assembly seat in 1998, and ex-UUP David McClarty holding his seat in 2011 as an independent (and outpolling the combined first preferences of the two UUP candidates who replaced him).

Claire Sugden – McClarty’s parliamentary assistant for five years – was co-opted into his seat upon his death in 2014, and held it with an increased vote share in 2016 (becoming Minister of Justice) and an improved performance again in 2017 when she was first to reach the quota (in the eighth stage). The former Justice Minister attracts first preferences and transfers from various quarters with Ulster Unionists and Alliance voters seeing her liberal politics as an attractive home. Sugden is on the cusp of being the first independent since 1998 to win three elections in a row.

In 2017, this constituency was a real worry for the SDLP as their vote had been in constant decline over the previous elections. John Dallat returned from his retirement at the 2016 election and won back his seat, beating Sinn Féin’s Cathal Ó hOisín and overcoming a challenge by his deselected SDLP predecessor who stood against him as an independent. After Dallat’s death in 2020, Cara Hunter took on the seat following a strong Westminster result in 2019 where she came a surprise second. Hunter’s seat looks much more comfortable for the SDLP this time around. 

The DUP’s Maurice Bradley is standing again, this time alongside Councillor Alan Robinson, the son of his former constituency colleague. Hoping to make inroads in this constituency are Darryl Wilson (UUP) and returning candidates Chris McCaw (Alliance) and Jordan Armstrong (TUV). 

PREDICTIONS

  • One Independent, One DUP, One SDLP, One Sinn Féin

  • The final seat could be a toss-up between DUP, Alliance, and potentially the UUP or TUV.

Manufacturing Month to celebrate local manufacturing resilience and excellence

Manufacturing NI leadership team, Stephen Kelly and Mary Meehan.

Manufacturing Month, a major initiative to showcase the potential and enhance the excellence of Northern Ireland’s manufacturing sector, returns this May for its second year.

Spearheaded by Manufacturing NI, the entire month of May will shine a light on the great work, innovation, and people within the local manufacturing community. A packed programme includes numerous events, webinars, lots of content from the sector, and the flagship ‘Anchor High’ leadership summit and inaugural Manufacturing Hall of Fame dinner in the Galgorm Resort on 12 May.

Focused on the people that make manufacturing one of the leading sectors within the Northern Irish economy, Manufacturing Month will highlight the skilled workers, leaders, apprentices, and educators who make the sector the world-leading success story it is.

Sponsored by KPMG, Pinsent Masons, Barclays, and Lockton Companies LLP, and supported by Invest NI and Northern Ireland’s six further education colleges, Manufacturing Month was first launched pre-Covid in March 2020 and brings together manufacturing firms, industry leaders, policy and key decision makers, schools, and young people to recognise the strengths of the sector, the great careers which are enjoyed and are possible, and celebrate the contribution local firms make to our economy and solving problems globally.

(Left to Right): Johnny Hanna, Partner in Charge, KPMG Ireland, Nigel Birney, Head of Trade Credit, Lockton Companies LLP, John Mathers, Corporate Development Director, Barclays, Mary Meehan, Deputy Chief Executive, Manufacturing NI, Laura Gillespie, Partner, Pinsent Masons and Stephen Kelly, Chief Executive, Manufacturing NI at the launch of Manufacturing Month 2022.

Stephen Kelly, Chief Executive, Manufacturing NI said:

“The first ever Manufacturing Month was cut short due to the arrival of the Covid pandemic in March 2020, so this May is an opportunity to refocus and reset after a difficult couple of years. Manufacturing Month shines a light on the people and the great firms who make the sector what it is, the people who have led by example during the pandemic.

“Despite everything that has been thrown at the sector since 2020 – Covid, Brexit, war in Europe, supply chain stresses and huge cost rises - the sector is buoyant and optimistic and poised to create more wealth and work in every community across Northern Ireland.

“As our economy and our society emerges from the Covid pandemic, it’s vital that we do all that we can to support our manufacturers. Northern Ireland is an attractive place to do business because of the talent on offer, our unique dual market access, and the incredibly creative, resilient, and brave leaders at every level in our industry. We must cherish and celebrate what makes manufacturing in Northern Ireland so great, and initiatives like Manufacturing Month are great opportunities to do just that.”

Jonny Hanna, Partner in Charge, KPMG Belfast said:

“KPMG are very pleased to be involved in this year’s Manufacturing Month once again. Whether it’s aeronautical engineering, food and drink manufacturers, pharmaceuticals, or emerging industries like AI, Northern Ireland proudly punches above its weight on the global stage. As a firm, KPMG works with a number of local leading manufacturers and we are excited to be backing the sector through Manufacturing Month, an important initiative which will help inspire the next generation of sector leaders.”

Laura Gillespie, Partner, Pinsent Masons added:

“Pinsent Masons are delighted to be supporting this year’s Manufacturing Month and we look forward to recognising the success and ingenuity of Northern Ireland’s manufacturing sector. With strong traditional links to the sector in Northern Ireland, Pinsent Masons looks forward to celebrating the abundance of talent and innovation, driving the post-Covid economic recovery, and helping attract inward investment from abroad. Manufacturing Month is a welcome occasion to shine a positive light on our great manufacturing companies, workers, and leaders.  Pinsent Masons is proud to play a part in such an important initiative.”

#AE22 Brown O'Connor NI Assembly Elections Constituency Profile: North Down

#AE22 Constituency Profile: North Down

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

  • North Down stretches along the coastline from Holywood, Helen’s Bay, Bangor, Donaghadee to Millisle. The slim constituency only stretches as far inland as Conlig and stops well short of the population centres of Dundonald and Newtownards.

  • Across the 18 constituencies, the 2011 Census reports that North Down has the lowest population proportion from a Catholic community background (12.6%), the highest brought up without a religious background (11.8%) and the second highest from a Protestant community background (74.4%).

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

  • For decades, a mainly Unionist constituency with a majority of its MLAs coming from that designation. A female unionist has never been elected to the Assembly from North Down.

  • In 2017, candidates in the Other designation took a third of the first preference votes. North Down was the first constituency that saw a Green breakthrough (Brian Wilson) at the Assembly level in 2007. Only the second constituency ever in Northern Ireland to elect an Alliance MP.

  • North Down has never had a nationalist candidate returned to Stormont, and 2003 was the last year that nationalist parties took more than 5% of the vote share at an Assembly election.

  • Thirty years ago, the Northern Ireland Conservatives achieved their best result in the 1992 General Election when Laurence Kennedy polled 32% of the vote, coming second behind the incumbent MP Jim Kilfedder (43%) who was running under the Ulster Popular Unionist Party banner having left the UUP back in 1977. By the next election in 1995, the Conservative vote had dropped to 2.1%.

  • Forty years ago, Jim Kilfedder topped the poll in North Down in the 1982 Assembly Election, and was elected as Speaker of the Assembly. In an obituary, fellow MP Tam Dalyell wrote “I walked through the streets of Bangor with Kilfedder. Progress was snail-like. Everyone seemed to stop to have a word with him and he introduced his constituents by name to his Westminster colleagues.”

  • Turnout in 2017 was the lowest in Northern Ireland. However, for North Down, this was the best percentage turnout at an Assembly election since 1998.

SINCE 2017

  • The UUP’s Alan Chambers is the only North Down MLA to have completed the full five year Assembly term and stayed in their party.

  • Rachel Woods (Green) replaced Steven Agnew in October 2019.

  • Andrew Muir (Alliance) replaced Stephen Farry in December 2019.

  • In June 2021, Stephen Dunne (DUP) replaced his father Gordon Dunne who died just 11 days after standing down from the Assembly.

  • Alex Easton resigned from the DUP in July 2021 and has subsequently sat as an independent MLA.

THE DAY OF THE COUNT

  • Although it took 8 stages to complete the count in 2017, the result was obvious after the first stage with just five candidates polling more than 5,000 votes, and the next highest candidate only garnering 1,246 first preferences.

  • Alex Easton topped the poll in 2017 and his surplus easily brought home his DUP running mate Gordon Dunne who was just 172 first preference votes shy of the quota. Stephen Farry (Alliance) and Alan Chambers (UUP) were also over quota. Steven Agnew (Green) was 1,112 votes shy of the quota after the first stage.

  • This year’s count is likely to take a similar number of stages, but the result will not be as certain after the first count completes.

  • On 6 May, watch the first preference results to see whether the DUP+UUP+TUV+Easton first preferences still add up to over three quotas for Unionists, or whether the Alliance+Green votes now exceed two quotas and show growth in the Other designation.

COMMENTARY

North Down is home to resignations and mavericks. Alex Easton is following a long path well trodden by many before him in this constituency.

Elected representatives who leave a political party and stand as an independent tend to poll badly. In 2016, former Green Party leader Brian Wilson stood as an independent. Alan McFarland resigned from the UUP in 2010 and stood against his old party in 2011 in an attempt to retain his assembly seat. Both were defeated.

However, the personal touch in North Down can bring success. Alex Easton will be hoping that North Down voters remain loyal to him and value his constituency work in the same way they continued to return Sylvia Hermon to Westminster after she left the UUP.

Easton’s former DUP colleagues – Stephen Dunne and Councillor Jennifer Gilmour – are seeking to hold the party’s two seats and stop him. The TUV have also re-entered the race, further fragmenting the unionist vote. If the DUP is bracing for losses elsewhere, it will need a good performance in North Down.

Incumbent co-opted MLAs, Andrew Muir (Alliance) and Rachel Woods (Green) will be seeking to build on their parties’ previous electoral success and achieve strong mandates.

Unlike the Greens, Alliance is running a second candidate in this election with local Councillor Connie Egan on the ticket for the first time. The surge to Alliance in the 2019 General Election that elected Stephen Farry to Westminster with a majority of nearly 3,000 and a 45% vote share was in a race with only four candidates. A big swing towards Alliance from their 18.6% share in 2017 would make Egan competitive for Alliance.

Sitting MLA Alan Chambers – back in the UUP since December 2015 – is also seeking re-election and should have no issue holding his seat, although better balancing of votes with his running mate could delay his election to a later stage. 

PREDICTIONS

  • One DUP, One UUP, One Alliance, One Green

  • Battle between DUP and Easton for the last seat unless a big swing to Alliance brings Egan home ahead of the sitting Green.