#AE22 Constituency Profile: North Down
ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY
North Down stretches along the coastline from Holywood, Helen’s Bay, Bangor, Donaghadee to Millisle. The slim constituency only stretches as far inland as Conlig and stops well short of the population centres of Dundonald and Newtownards.
Across the 18 constituencies, the 2011 Census reports that North Down has the lowest population proportion from a Catholic community background (12.6%), the highest brought up without a religious background (11.8%) and the second highest from a Protestant community background (74.4%).
PREVIOUS ELECTIONS
For decades, a mainly Unionist constituency with a majority of its MLAs coming from that designation. A female unionist has never been elected to the Assembly from North Down.
In 2017, candidates in the Other designation took a third of the first preference votes. North Down was the first constituency that saw a Green breakthrough (Brian Wilson) at the Assembly level in 2007. Only the second constituency ever in Northern Ireland to elect an Alliance MP.
North Down has never had a nationalist candidate returned to Stormont, and 2003 was the last year that nationalist parties took more than 5% of the vote share at an Assembly election.
Thirty years ago, the Northern Ireland Conservatives achieved their best result in the 1992 General Election when Laurence Kennedy polled 32% of the vote, coming second behind the incumbent MP Jim Kilfedder (43%) who was running under the Ulster Popular Unionist Party banner having left the UUP back in 1977. By the next election in 1995, the Conservative vote had dropped to 2.1%.
Forty years ago, Jim Kilfedder topped the poll in North Down in the 1982 Assembly Election, and was elected as Speaker of the Assembly. In an obituary, fellow MP Tam Dalyell wrote “I walked through the streets of Bangor with Kilfedder. Progress was snail-like. Everyone seemed to stop to have a word with him and he introduced his constituents by name to his Westminster colleagues.”
Turnout in 2017 was the lowest in Northern Ireland. However, for North Down, this was the best percentage turnout at an Assembly election since 1998.
SINCE 2017
The UUP’s Alan Chambers is the only North Down MLA to have completed the full five year Assembly term and stayed in their party.
Rachel Woods (Green) replaced Steven Agnew in October 2019.
Andrew Muir (Alliance) replaced Stephen Farry in December 2019.
In June 2021, Stephen Dunne (DUP) replaced his father Gordon Dunne who died just 11 days after standing down from the Assembly.
Alex Easton resigned from the DUP in July 2021 and has subsequently sat as an independent MLA.
THE DAY OF THE COUNT
Although it took 8 stages to complete the count in 2017, the result was obvious after the first stage with just five candidates polling more than 5,000 votes, and the next highest candidate only garnering 1,246 first preferences.
Alex Easton topped the poll in 2017 and his surplus easily brought home his DUP running mate Gordon Dunne who was just 172 first preference votes shy of the quota. Stephen Farry (Alliance) and Alan Chambers (UUP) were also over quota. Steven Agnew (Green) was 1,112 votes shy of the quota after the first stage.
This year’s count is likely to take a similar number of stages, but the result will not be as certain after the first count completes.
On 6 May, watch the first preference results to see whether the DUP+UUP+TUV+Easton first preferences still add up to over three quotas for Unionists, or whether the Alliance+Green votes now exceed two quotas and show growth in the Other designation.
COMMENTARY
North Down is home to resignations and mavericks. Alex Easton is following a long path well trodden by many before him in this constituency.
Elected representatives who leave a political party and stand as an independent tend to poll badly. In 2016, former Green Party leader Brian Wilson stood as an independent. Alan McFarland resigned from the UUP in 2010 and stood against his old party in 2011 in an attempt to retain his assembly seat. Both were defeated.
However, the personal touch in North Down can bring success. Alex Easton will be hoping that North Down voters remain loyal to him and value his constituency work in the same way they continued to return Sylvia Hermon to Westminster after she left the UUP.
Easton’s former DUP colleagues – Stephen Dunne and Councillor Jennifer Gilmour – are seeking to hold the party’s two seats and stop him. The TUV have also re-entered the race, further fragmenting the unionist vote. If the DUP is bracing for losses elsewhere, it will need a good performance in North Down.
Incumbent co-opted MLAs, Andrew Muir (Alliance) and Rachel Woods (Green) will be seeking to build on their parties’ previous electoral success and achieve strong mandates.
Unlike the Greens, Alliance is running a second candidate in this election with local Councillor Connie Egan on the ticket for the first time. The surge to Alliance in the 2019 General Election that elected Stephen Farry to Westminster with a majority of nearly 3,000 and a 45% vote share was in a race with only four candidates. A big swing towards Alliance from their 18.6% share in 2017 would make Egan competitive for Alliance.
Sitting MLA Alan Chambers – back in the UUP since December 2015 – is also seeking re-election and should have no issue holding his seat, although better balancing of votes with his running mate could delay his election to a later stage.
PREDICTIONS
One DUP, One UUP, One Alliance, One Green
Battle between DUP and Easton for the last seat unless a big swing to Alliance brings Egan home ahead of the sitting Green.