#AE22 Constituency Profile: Belfast West
ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY
Belfast West has the second smallest electorate (according to 1 April figures) and the fifth smallest population (according to the 2011 census results).
Two thirds of its area is urban, while the rural third takes in the Colin Glen Forest Park and the slopes heading up to Divis and Black Mountain.
Across the 18 constituencies, the 2011 Census reports that Belfast West has the highest population proportion brought up in a Catholic community background (80.1%) and the lowest proportion from a Protestant community background (16.7%).
PREVIOUS ELECTIONS
Sinn Féin took 61.8% of the vote at the 2017 Assembly Election, their best share across the 18 constituencies.
People Before Profit’s support slumped, down 8 percentage points on their 2016 peak.
SDLP increased their vote by 1.3 percentage points but still lost their only MLA, Alex Attwood who had represented Belfast West since 1998.
DUP polled 10.1% of the vote in 2017.
SINCE 2017
Alex Maskey (Sinn Féin) is not seeking re-election. However, he will still be in the Speaker’s chair until a new one is elected as the first item of business after May’s election.
Aisling Reilly (Sinn Féin) replaced Fra McCann as MLA in October 2021.
THE DAY OF THE COUNT
Despite the presence of 12 candidates on the ballot, Belfast West was an exciting but compact four stage count in 2017. This year with 17 candidates, it will be slower to resolve the final seats.
Sinn Féin polled 3.7 quotas of first preference votes in 2017.
Unionist parties polled two thirds of a quota of first preferences with very little scope to attract transfers.
Watch the gap between the DUP and SDLP candidates over the first few stages of the count. In 2017, the SDLP couldn’t quite catch up before their candidate was excluded. If they poll better than the DUP in May, then it could be game on for Paul Doherty to be in the running for the final seat.
COMMENTARY
Belfast West is a Sinn Féin heartland that has returned four or more seats for the party at every election since 1998. Two of the party’s best known representatives are not going to be on the ballot this time. Alex Maskey (the Speaker of the Assembly) is standing down. Fra McCann stepped away last year. Councillor Danny Baker and Aisling Reilly will be on the ballot alongside incumbent MLAs Pat Sheehan and Órlaithí Flynn. In 2017, the party performed incredibly well achieving a 7.3 percentage point swing toward them.
The second party in Belfast West is People Before Profit. Gerry Carroll topped the poll in 2016 with a breakthrough 1.6 quotas of first preference votes. On the back of this, the party ran two candidates in 2017, but a third of their vote share slipped away, picking up less than a quota of first preferences. This May, despite an uptick in the most recent Westminster poll, People Before Profit is playing it safe and running a single candidate (Gerry Carroll) in Belfast West. However, his transfers could be critical in deciding the final outcome.
Having been introduced at the 2019 General Election, Paul Doherty is running for the first time at the Assembly level trying to regain the SDLP seat that was lost in 2017. Doherty is running a high profile campaign and this is one of the party’s top targets.
The last seat in this constituency is always a battle, and up to three parties will be fighting for it.
Frank McCoubrey is contesting Belfast West for the DUP for the third time. The party have not held a seat in the constituency since 2007.
A win for Paul Doherty would need a mix of strong transfers from People Before Profit and to be ahead of the DUP candidate after the smaller candidates have been excluded. It’s a stretch, but could make Belfast West an exciting race to watch.
PREDICTIONS
Three Sinn Féin, One People Before Profit
Last seat is a battle between Sinn Féin and SDLP, with DUP as an outside chance.