#AE22 Constituency Profile: East Londonderry
ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY
The towns of Coleraine and Limavady are in the East Londonderry constituency, along with popular coastal destinations like Portrush, Portstewart, and Castlerock.
According to the 2011 Census, 53% of the population are from a Protestant community background, while 42% are from a Catholic community background.
East Londonderry is seven times larger (in terms of area) and a much more rural constituency than neighbouring Foyle.
PREVIOUS ELECTIONS
SDLP vote has declined in the previous two Assembly elections making the seat more marginal.
Sinn Féin have increased their vote in this constituency at every Assembly election but have narrowly missed out on winning two seats in recent elections.
DUP has been polling over 30% of the vote in every Assembly election since 2003.
UUP MLA David McClarty resigned from the party when he was deselected in January 2011 and held the seat as an independent: the UUP have never been able to win it back.
SINCE 2017
Cara Hunter replaced SDLP’s John Dallat as MLA following his death in May 2020.
DUP’s George Robinson is not standing again for re-election.
THE DAY OF THE COUNT
East Londonderry was one of two constituency counts which stretched across 12 stages before electing the final candidates. With a similar-sized field of candidates in May, this year’s count may well be as long and drawn out.
The candidate with the highest number of first preferences – Sinn Féin’s Caoimhe Archibald – was still over a thousand votes short of the quota at the end of the first stage, and had to wait until stage 12 to finally be elected.
The DUP polled exactly two quotas of first preferences, split over three candidates in 2017. Will they hold their vote share in May?
Will independent Claire Sugden retain her 12% vote share against Alliance’s strong showing in recent opinion polls?
COMMENTARY
There’s an independent streak to East Londonderry, with ex-UUP independent unionist Boyd Douglas winning an Assembly seat in 1998, and ex-UUP David McClarty holding his seat in 2011 as an independent (and outpolling the combined first preferences of the two UUP candidates who replaced him).
Claire Sugden – McClarty’s parliamentary assistant for five years – was co-opted into his seat upon his death in 2014, and held it with an increased vote share in 2016 (becoming Minister of Justice) and an improved performance again in 2017 when she was first to reach the quota (in the eighth stage). The former Justice Minister attracts first preferences and transfers from various quarters with Ulster Unionists and Alliance voters seeing her liberal politics as an attractive home. Sugden is on the cusp of being the first independent since 1998 to win three elections in a row.
In 2017, this constituency was a real worry for the SDLP as their vote had been in constant decline over the previous elections. John Dallat returned from his retirement at the 2016 election and won back his seat, beating Sinn Féin’s Cathal Ó hOisín and overcoming a challenge by his deselected SDLP predecessor who stood against him as an independent. After Dallat’s death in 2020, Cara Hunter took on the seat following a strong Westminster result in 2019 where she came a surprise second. Hunter’s seat looks much more comfortable for the SDLP this time around.
The DUP’s Maurice Bradley is standing again, this time alongside Councillor Alan Robinson, the son of his former constituency colleague. Hoping to make inroads in this constituency are Darryl Wilson (UUP) and returning candidates Chris McCaw (Alliance) and Jordan Armstrong (TUV).
PREDICTIONS
One Independent, One DUP, One SDLP, One Sinn Féin
The final seat could be a toss-up between DUP, Alliance, and potentially the UUP or TUV.