#AE22 Constituency Profile: Mid Ulster
ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY
Mid Ulster is a large and very rural constituency with the Sperrin mountains on one side, the western shore of Lough Neagh on the other, and flat peatlands in-between. It includes the towns of Magherafelt, Maghera, Cookstown and Coalisland.
PREVIOUS ELECTIONS
Sinn Féin achieved a record result in 2017 with 52.8% of the vote.
DUP vote share dipped after the 2007 Assembly election but recovered to 19.3% in 2017.
The UUP’s vote fell in 2017, and in the switch from six to five seat constituencies – with just 9.1% of the vote – Sandra Overend couldn’t catch up with Patsy McGlone, and the second unionist seat was lost.
Second highest turnout in Northern Ireland in 2017 election.
SINCE 2017
Sinn Féin’s Ian Milne stepped down from the Assembly at the end of 2018 to prepare to return to local government as a councillor and was replaced by Emma Sheerin.
UUP have a new candidate, Meta Graham, trying to re-take a seat for the party.
Alliance were just shy of 8% vote share in the 2019 Westminster election, tripling previous recent results.
THE DAY OF THE COUNT
Likely to one of the fastest counts again this May, though an upturn in Alliance and TUV first preferences could add an extra stage or two to the process if multiple exclusions are not possible.
Whilst seat shifts are not expected, this is a constituency to keep an eye on for vote share. In 2017, Sinn Féin attracted just over three quotas of first preference votes, and the DUP’s candidate polled well over a quota.
COMMENTARY
This is a Sinn Féin heartland constituency that has been home to two deputy First Ministers, Martin McGuinness and Michelle O’Neill. The party has always polled above 40% of first preference votes in this constituency and in recent elections has been consistently north of 45% giving the party a solid three seats.
Michelle O’Neill leads the ticket in May for the second time as the vice president of the party. Linda Dillon is seeking a third term as an MLA and Emma Sheerin is standing for the first time seeking a mandate in her own right after being co-opted in December 2018. Of the eight constituencies in which Sinn Fein holds multiple seats, this is probably the safest and most likely to return all their candidates.
Patsy McGlone is seeking his sixth term as an MLA for the area. While the SDLP’s vote share in Mid Ulster has been slowly shrinking (while Sinn Féin’s is growing) the sitting deputy Speaker of the Assembly is defending a relatively safe seat for the party. In 2017, some expected this seat to be a fight between the SDLP and the UUP, but McGlone’s margin was over 650 votes in the final stage with Sinn Féin surpluses undistributed and still in reserve.
The DUP’s Keith Buchanan currently holds the only Unionist seat in the constituency. Despite the fortunes of party colleagues in other constituencies, his personal vote increased by over 2,000 votes in 2017. The party have regularly polled above 15% of the vote in recent elections and have a comfortable margin in Mid Ulster.
Alliance’s Claire Hackett will be anxious to find out if her party colleague’s success at the 2019 Westminster poll can be repeated.
PREDICTIONS
Three Sinn Féin, One DUP, One SDLP