#AE22 Constituency Profile: South Antrim
ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY
The South Antrim constituency hugs the northern and eastern shores of Lough Neagh, taking in the urban populations of Antrim, Ballyclare, Carnmoney, Crumlin, Glenavy, Mallusk, Randalstown and Templepatrick. Belfast International Airport, Antrim Area Hospital and Randox are major employers within the constituency.
PREVIOUS ELECTIONS
DUP took just over a third of the first preference votes in 2017 which was only enough to see two of their three MLAs re-elected.
Pam Cameron is the only woman to be elected to the Assembly from South Antrim.
UUP nearly always take more than 20% of the first preference vote.
SINCE 2017
John Blair was co-opted to replace David Ford in 2018.
Trevor Clarke (who lost his seat in May 2017) was co-opted to replace Paul Girvan following his election to Westminster in June 2017.
THE DAY OF THE COUNT
The first candidate wasn’t elected until stage four in 2011. A small swing to Sinn Féin, not to mention just two DUP names on the ballot this time, could mean one or two candidates come in over the quota in the first stage of the count.
Given the proximity to the TUV leader’s constituency, can the TUV significantly push through their previous peak vote share of 3.8% in an Assembly election in South Antrim?
COMMENTARY
South Antrim is a strong unionist constituency with the pro-union parties taking well over 50% of the first preference vote in Assembly elections and winning a majority of the seats in recent elections.
The DUP have a solid two seats in the constituency. Until 2017, they held three seats, but with the reduction in size of the Assembly they lost out despite balancing their vote incredibly well. Incumbent MLAs, Pam Cameron and Trevor Clarke are standing again for the party.
The UUP are running former leader Steve Aiken alongside Councillor Paul Michael. On the current numbers, whilst this is one of the party’s better-performing constituencies – Danny Kinahan polled well over 12,000 votes in both the 2017 and 2019 General Elections – the UUP are only likely to win a single seat.
Junior Minister Declan Kearney is standing again for Sinn Féin in what is a relatively safe seat for the party. The SDLP will be running local councillor Roisin Lynch once again. The 2010 boundary changes and the drop to five seats make it a hard road to win back the seat the SDLP lost in 2011. But with Declan Kearney already elected, two thirds of Lynch’s transfers upon exclusion in stage seven of the count brought the Alliance candidate home in 2017.
Alliance are just running one candidate despite a solid share of the vote and being transfer friendly. John Blair is running for election for the first time at the Assembly level. This is a safe seat and Blair should have no issue returning to Stormont.
Watch out to see if the TUV’s Mel Lucas can make a strong showing and eat into the DUP’s share of the vote.
PREDICTIONS
No change: Two DUP, One UUP, One Alliance, One Sinn Féin.