Brown O'Connor Communications Weekly Look Ahead: Week Commencing 11 April 2022

Forward Look                                

  • The Institute of Irish Studies-University of Liverpool/The Irish News poll found Sinn Féin has extended its lead over the DUP with 27% of first-preference votes, in comparison to the DUP’s 20.2%. Alliance remains on course to be the Assembly’s third largest party.

  • The DUP published its ‘5-Point Plan’, prioritising fixing the NHS, growing the economy, keeping schools world-class, helping working families, and removing the NI Protocol: LINK

  • BBC NI announced its election coverage plans with the Party Leaders’ Debate taking place on Tuesday 3 May at 9pm.

  • Aodhán Connolly, director of the NI Retail Consortium, will lead the NI Executive Office in Brussels from 25 April.

  • Alliance is expected to publish its manifesto on 20 April, the Green Party manifesto is expected to be published on 21 April, and Sinn Féin is expected to publish its manifesto on 25 April.

  • The Queen’s Speech on 10 May is likely to include a Brexit Freedoms Bill making it easier to amend or remove retained EU law. A Levelling Up and Regeneration Bill on devolved matters is also set to be included.

  • Belfast City Council is considering establishing a Poverty Commission for the city.

  • The Fiscal Commission’s final report is to be published after the Assembly Election in May.

  • PWC’s 2022 Economic Outlook found that Belfast is ranked 16th in the top 30 European headquarter locations.

  • According to the Scottish Widows Index, financial wellbeing in households across the UK is at its lowest point in two years.

  • A Northern Ireland Chamber of Commerce survey found NI businesses continued to recover from the impact of Covid-19 in Q1 of 2022 but over three quarters of businesses expect to raise prices in the next three months.

Other Stories this week

  • John Callinan was appointed as Secretary General of the Department of the Taoiseach.

  • Belfast City Council launched the Belfast Business Idea 2022.

  • Addressing the Dáil, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked Irish leaders to convince the EU to introduce more rigid sanctions against Russia.

  • Pivotal, the Public Policy Forum, found NI has the lowest level of educational attainment across the UK.

  • The Northern Ireland Fraud Forum has been established to promote fraud awareness among businesses and the public and third sector.

Upcoming key political and business events

  • 28 April, CBI’s An Audience with Northern Ireland’s Political Leaders, The Great Hall Queen’s University

  • 28 April, Belfast Chamber’s Spring Networking Reception, Whites Garden

  • 5 May, Northern Ireland Assembly Election

  • 10 May, State Opening of Parliament

  • 12 May, Anchor High Summit, Manufacturing NI, Galgorm Hotel and Spa

  • 26 May, Belfast Telegraph Business Awards, Crowne Plaza Hotel, Belfast

  • 21 June, House of Commons rises for Summer Recess

  • 30 June, Irish News Workplace and Employment Awards, Titanic Belfast

Consultations

#AE22 Brown O'Connor NI Assembly Election Constituency Profile: East Antrim

#AE22 Constituency Profile: East Antrim

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

  • A long thin constituency, stretching down the eastern coast of Northern Ireland from the Glens of Antrim, through Larne and finishing near the Ulster University campus at Jordanstown on the northern foreshore of Belfast Lough.

  • The 2011 Census reports that 53.3% of the East Antrim constituency population are from a Protestant community background, while 41.7% are from a Catholic community background.

  • East Antrim had the second lowest percentage turnout in 2017.

  • It has the smallest population of any constituency in Northern Ireland, and according to the 1 April electoral register, also has the smallest number of eligible voters.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

  • The UUP picked up a second seat – their only gain – in the 2017 Assembly election.

  • The drop from six to five seats at that election squeezed out Sinn Féin’s Oliver McMullan, leaving East Antrim without a nationalist representative.

  • Alliance’s Danny Donnelly polled very strongly (27%) in the 2019 General Election, adding more than 4,000 votes on top of Stewart Dickson’s 2017 Westminster tally.

  • East Antrim has yet to elect a female MLA.

SINCE 2017

  • One of only four constituencies to start and finish the Assembly term with all five elected MLAs. The five male incumbents are all seeking re-election.

  • Former Sinn Fein MLA, Oliver McMullan is seeking a return to Stormont.

  • Siobhan McAlister is standing for the SDLP for the first time.

THE DAY OF THE COUNT

  • With nobody elected over quota in 2017, this was a slow count. David Hilditch was elected after stage 3 and the next two candidates elected after the sixth stage.

  • Will the DUP’s combined first preferences still exceed two quotas?

  • Can Alliance’s two candidates outpoll the incumbent UUP pair in the first stage to make a viable challenge for the final seat as they pick up transfers in later stages?

COMMENTARY

East Antrim is a solid unionist constituency with a majority of its MLAs from that designation since 1998.

Despite the constituency’s demographic, the high level of support for Alliance, together with the reduction to five seats, makes it difficult for a nationalist to get elected. Sinn Féin lost their seat here in 2017 and it would take a big swing towards Sinn Féin to make Oliver McMullan competitive.

The only woman to be nominated to stand for one of the major parties is the SDLP’s Siobhán McAlister. Once excluded in the fourth stage in 2017, SDLP votes split 3:2 in favour of Alliance over Sinn Féin.

The DUP are playing it safe in East Antrim and have pared back their ticket to just run the two sitting MLAs, David Hilditch and Economy Minister Gordon Lyons.

East Antrim went against the tide of many other constituencies, with a UUP gain for John Stewart that kept his party’s seat count in double figures. But Alliance are trying to flip that seat this May to bring home Danny Donnelly who polled very strongly in the 2019 Westminster election.

A buoyant TUV would expect their candidate Norman Boyd to make big gains on their normal 4-5% of the vote share. If the party isn’t competitive right next door to Jim Allister’s North Antrim constituency, their performance is unlikely to live up to opinion poll expectations.

PREDICTIONS

  • Two DUP, One UUP and One Alliance.

  • Battle between UUP and Alliance for the last seat.

#AE22 Brown O'Connor NI Assembly Election Constituency Profile: West Tyrone

#AE22 Constituency Profile: West Tyrone

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

  • Strabane, Castlederg, Omagh and Carrickmore fall inside the West Tyrone constituency boundary.

  • While not quite the largest in terms of area, West Tyrone is proportionately the most rural constituency.

  • It had the third highest turnout in the last Assembly election.

  • A West Tyrone MLA has never gone on to become an Executive Minister.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

  • Sinn Féin has always taken more than 40% of the first preference vote since 2007.

  • The SDLP has increased its vote at every election since 2011.

  • At the 2019 Westminster election, Alliance outpolled the UUP.

SINCE 2017

  • Declan McAleer is the only one of the three Sinn Féin MLAs elected in 2017 who is standing again. Barry McElduff resigned from the Assembly when he was elected to Westminster in June 2017, initially replaced by Catherine Kelly, and then following controversy over a Covid small-business grant, Nicola Brogan took over the seat at the end of October 2020. Maolíosa McHugh was co-opted into Michaela Boyle’s seat in May 2019.

  • The UUP are running former Irish Senator Ian Marshall in the constituency for the first time.

THE DAY OF THE COUNT

  • One of the fastest counts in 2017: just five stages.

  • Will SDLP’s Daniel McCrossan consolidate his increasing support and reach a quota of first preferences to be elected in the first stage?

  • Will Sinn Féin be able to match their 48% share of the vote in 2017 with such a changed line up?

  • The UUP were well ahead of Alliance in terms of first preferences back in 2017. But Alliance outpolled the UUP at the 2019 General Election. Both parties’ candidates will be straining to stay ahead of each other to challenge for Sinn Féin’s third seat.

COMMENTARY

West Tyrone is a constituency with a history of political upsets and returning fortunes for parties. Both the UUP and SDLP have lost seats here and regained them at subsequent elections.

Sinn Féin is fighting to hold onto the three seats they first secured in 2011 and managed to retain with the shift to five-seater constituencies. The party polled a strong 48% of the first preference vote in 2017 and they will need a similar share in May to safely return their three candidates. There has been a lot of churn within their Assembly team: six Sinn Féin MLAs have sat on the Assembly Chamber’s benches to represent West Tyrone since the 2017 election. This is the first Assembly electoral test for Nicola Brogan and Maolíosa McHugh.

A likely win for Daniel McCrossan will make him the first SDLP MLA in West Tyrone to win three elections in a row. His vote rose sharply between the 2016 and 2017 Assembly elections and the SDLP will want to bank that growth.

Thomas Buchanan’s seat is one the DUP shouldn’t need to worry about: he was elected with nearly one and a quarter quotas in 2017.

Others to watch on 6 May include Alliance’s Stephen Donnelly who has been building his support from 494 votes in the 2016 Assembly election to 3,979 votes in the 2019 General Election, outpolling the UUP candidate. Transfer-friendly Alliance could be in contention for the last seat, particularly if Sinn Féin’s vote share swings to the SDLP.

UUP candidate Ian Marshall once served in the Irish Senate and was President of the Ulster Farmers’ Union. He’s hoping to win back the seat lost in 2017. Bad feeling – or sour grapes – about his selection amongst some associated with the party has overshadowed his introduction to West Tyrone.

PREDICTIONS

  • Two Sinn Féin, One DUP, One SDLP.

  • The last seat will be a battle between Sinn Féin and the Alliance Party. There’s an outside chance the UUP could be in with a shout.

Law Society’s Justice Agenda highlights urgent priorities for incoming Justice Minister

(L-R) Senior Vice President, Rowan White; President, Brigid Napier and Junior Vice President, Brian Archer

The Law Society of Northern Ireland, the professional body for the solicitor profession, is urging the new Executive to ensure Access to Justice is a priority after the 5 May election. The ‘Justice Agenda 2022’ launched today calls on elected representatives to commit to sustainable and realistic investment to fix the issues that have long plagued Northern Ireland’s Justice system.

The ‘Justice Agenda’ sets out 10 strategic priorities that require urgent attention, including:

  • Protecting the Legal Aid Budget - a ring-fenced budget of not less than £82 million is necessary to protect Access to Justice for our most vulnerable citizens.

  • Closing the Access to Justice Gap – the financial eligibility thresholds for civil legal aid are now 13 years out of date. These must be increased to ensure those on lower incomes have their rights protected.

  • Court Recovery – It is estimated that Northern Ireland’s Crown Court case backlog will extend past 2027. Urgent investment and reform of our Courts must be prioritised to prevent further harm being caused to victims and witnesses.

The Law Society is also calling for progress to address Legacy issues and measures to support economic recovery.

Commenting on the launch of the Justice Agenda 2022, President of the Law Society of Northern Ireland, Brigid Napier said:

“I am pleased to launch the Justice Agenda today to outline the priorities for rebuilding our justice system which, like so many areas of life, is still recovering from the pandemic. As society faces an unprecedented cost of living crisis, it is more important than ever that those in power protect our most vulnerable by ensuring they have Access to Justice.”

“The Law Society is committed to working constructively with the incoming Executive and the next Justice Minister to ensure we have a system that is fit for purpose. Access to Justice must be at the centre of the next Programme for Government and the aim must be to deliver the Justice system that the people of Northern Ireland deserve.”

#AE22 Brown O'Connor NI Assembly Election Constituency Profile: Newry and Armagh

#AE22 Constituency Profile: Newry and Armagh

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

  • This border constituency encircles Armagh and stretches from Loughgall to Crossmaglen, and from Middletown to the city of Newry on its eastern edge. Norbrook Laboratories pharmaceutical company is a major employer.

  • Tayto’s Tangragee plant falls into the Newry and Armagh constituency. Financial technology company First Derivatives are headquartered in Newry.

  • Newry and Armagh has the second largest registered electorate of the eighteen Assembly constituencies – neighbouring Upper Bann has the largest eligible electorate – and by virtue of a solid turnout, it had the highest quota for candidates to reach to be elected in 2017.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

  • Has returned a majority of nationalists in every election since 1998.

  • The DUP’s William Irwin topped the poll in 2017, having increased his share of the vote in every Assembly election since 2011.

  • Sinn Féin held their three seats in 2017 with a massive 7.4% swing to them.

  • SDLP’s Justin McNulty won more first preference votes than any other SDLP candidate, but – like every other SDLP candidate in the 2017 election – he was still under quota in the first stage.

  • The UUP’s Danny Kennedy lost his seat which he had held since 1998.

SINCE 2017

  • Junior Minister Megan Fearon (Sinn Féin) stood down from the Assembly in 2019 and was replaced by Liz Kimmins.

  • While Councillor Sam Nicholson has contested Newry & Armagh for the UUP at the last two Westminster elections, it’s another Councillor, David Taylor who will be on the Assembly ticket for the UUP in May 2022.

THE DAY OF THE COUNT

  • Because the top six candidates were so far ahead of the rest of the field, this was a very fast count with the result obvious after the three smallest candidates were excluded in one swoop.

  • Even with a boosted Alliance vote and a TUV candidate in the mix, this should be another fast count on 6 May.

  • The UUP’s David Taylor will be watching to see if the overall unionist first preference vote share is up, and will want to already be ahead of Sinn Féin’s third candidate in the first stage (as Sinn Féin will pick up more transfers from excluded candidates than the UUP).

COMMENTARY

Newry and Armagh is a constituency that has gone from a battle between the big two nationalist parties (1998–2007) to a battle for the last seat between Sinn Féin and the UUP. 

Sinn Féin had a strong result in 2017 with three well known sitting MLAs running for re-election. This time, Liz Kimmins is up on the Assembly ballot for the first time and the party will want to repeat their strong vote share from 2017.

The SDLP’s Justin McNulty is running again and should be re-elected alongside the DUP’s William Irwin. The SDLP stopped running a second candidate when the constituencies dropped from six to five seats. This May, no party other than Sinn Féin will run a second candidate in Newry & Armagh.

In May 2019’s local government elections, independent Councillor Gavin Malone topped the poll in his Newry DEA. He’s running for the Assembly and may gain traction on local issues.

However, the only serious challenge to Sinn Féin winning the third seat is likely to come from the UUP’s David Taylor who will need to reverse the party’s recent decline in votes to be in with a chance. A big swing from the DUP to UUP would help his chances.

PREDICTIONS

  • Two Sinn Féin, one SDLP, one DUP.

  • Battle between Sinn Féin (favourite) and UUP (outside chance) for the last seat.

'Fraud awareness key to protecting private and public sector' by Bill McCluggage, Chair, Northern Ireland Fraud Forum

As originally appeared by Irish News, 5 April

Bill McCluggage, Chair, NI Fraud Forum, and Matthew Howse, Partner, Eversheds Sutherland

With unprecedented levels of inflation, an ever-tightening squeeze on the labour market, and the cost of fuel and materials across all sectors spiralling at the moment, businesses are operating in an increasingly volatile and unpredictable trading environment. As firms come out the other side of the pandemic, there are challenges for business leaders and employers to grapple with as they get back on their feet again.

While the aforementioned factors are well known to businesses at this stage, awareness of threats like fraud and white-collar crime is weaker. While exact data is scarce for Northern Ireland – which is ironically a problem within itself - PwC’s most recent Economic Crime Survey found that over half of Irish businesses have experienced economic crime in the last 24 months.

With pandemic lockdowns and a surge in online shopping, as well as a reliance on internet communication, fraudsters have taken advantage of changing habits. People living in Northern Ireland are not immune from fraud and while you might expect the risk of fraud to be the same wherever you live in the UK, Action Fraud figures show that people are over twice as likely to report being a victim of any type of fraud in the East of England than those living and working in Northern Ireland.   

The Northern Ireland Fraud Forum is a new and innovative organisation which aims to promote fraud awareness among businesses and the public and 3rd sector in Northern Ireland, allow members to understand how best to mitigate against the risks involved, and increase knowledge of how to respond effectively to fraud. Launching today at a hybrid event in the MAC and online, the Forum mirrors similar organisations from across the UK and Ireland who are committed to educating business owners and entrepreneurs about the threat, signals, and consequences of fraud.

Comprised of private sector industry professionals like Eversheds Sutherland, Grant Thornton, and PKF-FPM, as well as public organisations like HMRC and the PSNI, the Forum is a public-private-3rd sector partnership which seeks to address a gap in the local business community by dedicating itself to the prevention and investigation of fraud and economic crime.

The government is making concerted moves to address and tackle fraud. In his recent Spring Statement, Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced an investment of £48m for a new counter-fraud authority over the next three years to step up efforts against fraud and recover millions of pounds. Trade body UK Finance estimates that around £7bn is lost to economic crime in the UK each year. This is a staggering figure for our economy to be bleeding on an annual basis. On a macro level, this means lost investment and innovation in our wider economy. On a micro level, as we’ve seen with some high-profile local examples over the past number of years, this means reduced hours for staff, pay cuts, redundancies and, regrettably, in the case of personal fraud, life changing circumstances.

The Northern Ireland Fraud Forum is keen to play a key role in spotting instances of fraud, tackling economic crime, and educating local businesses about the consequences of fraud on their operations. This new initiative will do just that, and we would encourage businesses of all shapes and sizes to get involved and help spread awareness of the dangers of fraud.

New body launched to fight fraud in Northern Ireland

Bill McCluggage, Chair, NI Fraud Forum; and Matthew Howse, Dispute Resolution and Litigation Partner, Eversheds Sutherland.

An innovative private-public-third sector partnership has been launched to help spread awareness of the dangers of fraud and white-collar crime in Northern Ireland.

The Northern Ireland Fraud Forum is a new organisation which brings together representatives from the business community, professional advisors and practitioners, the public sector, and organisations from the community and voluntary sector.

The forum, launched this morning at a virtual event in the MAC in Belfast’s Cathedral Quarter, aims to promote fraud awareness among businesses, the public sector, and 3rd sector in Northern Ireland, allow members to understand how best to mitigate against the risks involved, and increase knowledge of how to respond effectively to fraud.

The new body is chaired by Bill McCluggage, managing director of Laganview Associates and former Chief Information Officer for the Irish Government. The forum is comprised of private sector industry professionals like Eversheds Sutherland, Grant Thornton, and PKF-FPM, as well as public organisations like HMRC and the PSNI.

Speaking at the launch of the NI Fraud Forum in Belfast this morning, Forum Chair Bill McCluggage said:

“The Northern Ireland Fraud Forum is a timely and important initiative for businesses and organisations across the country. Coming out of the pandemic, firms are operating in an increasingly volatile and unpredictable trading environment with unprecedented costs and record levels of inflation. Threats like fraud, scams, and white-collar crime present serious challenges for business owners and can have a significant knock-on and even life-changing effect for workers and households.

“Trade body UK Finance estimates that around £7bn is lost to economic crime in the UK every year, a staggering and worrying figure. Locally, this is compounded by the fact that Action Fraud figures show that people are over twice as likely to report being a victim of any type of fraud in the East of England than those living and working in Northern Ireland. There is much more to do to make businesses aware of the dangers of fraud in Northern Ireland, and this new forum hopes to mirror other organisations from across the UK which do excellent work in minimising the threat posed by fraud.”   

Matthew Howse, Eversheds Sutherland Partner –Dispute Resolution and Litigation, added:

“Eversheds Sutherland are proud to be involved in this new initiative which will raise awareness of the dangers of fraud and promote best practice among the public, private, and third sectors in Northern Ireland. Fraud, white-collar crime, and increasingly sophisticated digital scams are a severe risk to businesses and organisations of all kinds and, in the worst instances, can lead to redundancies and life-changing circumstances.

“The Northern Ireland Fraud Forum is a body which seeks to bring together the expertise of leading professional advisors and practitioners, as well as organisations at the frontline of the fight against fraud like HMRC and the PSNI, in an effort to professionalise the response to fraud locally. This is the first step in tackling economic crime and educating local business owners, employers, charities, voluntary groups, and other organisations about how to spot fraud, deal with it, and ultimately avoid its worst consequences.”

Local and international tech experts join line up as BelTech returns in person

Vice President of Technology Products at Unosquare Mark Brown, Catherine Paul, Lead Software Engineer at Kainos, Lord Mayor of Belfast Councillor Kate Nicholl, Managing Director of Liberty IT Tony Marron and Kevin Higgins, Technical Lead at Allstate NI

Belfast man David Singleton, who heads up the multibillion-dollar Silicon Valley payments giant Stripe, is among the lineup for the popular tech conference BelTech as it returns in person for the first time in three years. 

Tech expert and CTO of Stripe David will be joined by Carlos Alzate, a Senior AI Advisor from AI Fund, who will travel in from Colombia for the ninth annual BelTech conference at Titanic Belfast on Thursday 7 April.

An event for local technologists and business leaders, BelTech will this year focus on the challenges of delivering a software product to market.

Lord Mayor of Belfast Councillor Kate Nicholl will open the event, which will also be addressed by Tony Marron, new Managing Director at Liberty IT, Chloe McAteer, Senior Software Engineer at Hamilton Robson and Wendy Kelly, Senior Team Manager at Allstate Northern Ireland.

An opportunity to meet and collaborate across the local and international technology ecosystem, BelTech is once again curated by technologists from three of Northern Ireland’s largest technology companies; Kainos, Allstate NI and Liberty IT.

Chief Technology Officer at Stripe David Singleton

Sessions will include: 

  • Secure Digital Transformation in 2022 and Beyond with Wesley Pullen, Field CTO at Cloudbees, Washington

  • Sustainable Tech, a panel discussion chaired by Journalist Amanda Ferguson featuring David Anderson, Bazaarvoice, Ricardo Sueiras, Open Source AWS and Alexandra Mousavizadeh, Tortoise Media

  • Bolstering Big Data with AI in E-commerce with Jordan McDonald, BazaarVoice

  • How to Win Cloud and Influence People with Chloe McAteer, Hamilton Robinson

  • API Versioning: The Hippocratic Oath with Catherine Paul, Kainos

  • A Day in the Life of an Engineer on GitHub with Colin Dembovsky, Field Solutions Engineer, GitHub Texas

BelTech 2022 is supported by Kainos, Allstate NI, Liberty IT, Unosquare, Expleo, Options and Belfast City Council. 

BelTech Curator and Group CTO at Kainos Tom Gray said:

“The aim of BelTech is to celebrate and give a platform to local influential tech voices and to help spark ideas and collaboration within our sector by inspiring the next generation of software professionals.”

“Technologists across Northern Ireland are working to push the boundaries of what we can offer as a solution to the challenges we face in society. This is reflected in the schedule for this year’s BelTech conference which will bring together a talented roster of professionals. Returning in person, we are also pleased to be welcoming global tech experts who are known around the world for their innovations.”

Kevin Higgins, Technical Lead at Allstate NI said: 

“Every year BelTech is a dynamic and exciting event that profiles the local tech industry and sparks new ideas. With phenomenal and inspirational speakers in the programme, we are proud to be involved in this year’s event. As technologists, we rely on collaboration and knowledge sharing with our peers, now more than ever after two years of independent working. Being from the North West, it is fantastic to be involved and play a role in one of Northern Ireland’s largest annual technology conferences.”

Tony Marron, Managing Director of Liberty IT said: 

“Every year BelTech is a dynamic and exciting event that profiles the local tech industry and sparks new ideas. With phenomenal and inspirational speakers in the programme, we are proud to be involved in this year’s event. As technologists, we rely on collaboration and knowledge sharing with our peers, now more than ever after two years of independent working. It is fantastic to be involved and play a role in one of Northern Ireland’s largest annual technology conferences.”

“We are pleased to once again be involved in a conference that will unite local and international technologists for a lively programme about software delivery and the challenges of making it to market. We have no doubt that BelTech will spark valuable discussions and connections amongst our collaborative when it returns to Titanic Belfast on 7 April.” 

To find out more and register for the virtual conference which takes place on Thursday 7 April, visit: https://beltech.co/

#AE22 Brown O'Connor NI Assembly Election Constituency Profile: Belfast North

#AE22 Constituency Profile: Belfast North

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

  • Belfast North is 100% urban according to NISRA's definition, and is the third smallest constituency by area.

  • Many of the city’s peace walls run through north Belfast.

  • It’s the most deprived constituency (using NISRA’s measure of the proportion of super output areas (SOA) in each constituency which lie within the top 10% most deprived SOAs in Northern Ireland).

  • Belfast North has the highest unemployment in Northern Ireland according to latest experimental claimant count.

  • The 2011 Census reports that 46.9% of Belfast North population was from a Catholic community background, and 45.7% Protestant.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

  • DUP suffered a high profile loss in 2017 with the defeat of Nelson McCausland.

  • The combined Unionist share was 42.8% versus 42.5% for Nationalism. Yet Nationalists won three out of five seats in 2017.

  • In fact, nationalists have held 3 seats in Belfast North since 2003 (2 Sinn Féin and 1 SDLP).

  • Fourth lowest constituency turnout in 2017 Assembly election.

  • The results came in a rush in 2017, with two (DUP) candidates elected in stage 6, and the remaining three elected under quota in stage 7.

SINCE 2017

  • One of only four constituencies which started and finished the term with all 5 MLAs who had been elected in March 2017

  • Both sitting DUP candidates are standing down: deputy leader Paula Bradley and William Humphrey.

  • TUV are running a candidate in the constituency; they didn’t stand in the 2017 Assembly election.

  • Former PUP councillor and Assembly candidate Julie-Anne Corr-Johnston is running for the UUP in this election.

THE DAY OF THE COUNT

  • Expect a repeat of 2017 with no candidate being elected over the quota in the first stage given the well-balanced and competitive field.

  • Sinn Féin’s vote balancing has improved, but in previous elections Gerry Kelly has always polled more than running mate Carál Ní Chuilín.

  • Alliance will be hoping for strong transfers from excluded Green and UUP candidates.

COMMENTARY

The North Belfast area is incredibly competitive in local, Assembly and Westminster elections. Two deputy leaders are seeking election, though DUP’s Paula Bradley is not standing.

The party suffered setbacks in the constituency with big-name losses such as Nigel Dodds and Nelson McCausland. Going into this election, the DUP hold two relatively safe Assembly seats and are not trying to regain a third. With both sitting MLAs standing down, the DUP are running two council group leaders: Brian Kingston (Belfast City Council) and Phillip Brett (Antrim & Newtownabbey Borough Council).

While other unionist parties are running higher profile campaigns in the constituency this year, they are unlikely to be competitive unless unionist turnout improves. Former PUP candidate Julie-Anne Corr Johnston is running under the UUP flag, while Ron McDowall is running for the TUV.

The Infrastructure Minister and SDLP deputy leader, Nichola Mallon, should be able defend her seat without any great problems. Green Party deputy leader Mal O’Hara will still be well shy of a quota, but will be hoping to boost the party’s share for local government elections in 2023.

The real battle is between Sinn Féin and Alliance. Narrowly missing out on a seat in 2017, Councillor Nuala McCallister is running again and hopes to capitalise on the Alliance surge that swept across Belfast in 2019. Her success would most likely come at the expense of one of the sitting Sinn Féin MLAs, Gerry Kelly or Carál Ní Chuilín. Belfast North is one of Alliance’s top targets for a gain. Missing out here would indicate lower chances of gains in other constituencies.

PREDICTIONS

  • Two DUP seats with one SDLP and one Sinn Féin.

  • The last seat will be a tight battle between Sinn Féin and Alliance.

Brown O'Connor Communications Weekly Look Ahead: Week Commencing 4 April 2022

Forward Look                                

  • The final Lucid Talk-Belfast Telegraph poll of the parties before the Assembly Election has placed Sinn Féin on course to be the largest party on 26%, followed by the DUP (19%), Alliance (16%), the UUP (13%) and the SDLP (11%).

  • Following the dissolution of the NI Assembly on Monday, the Electoral Office will publish a full list of election candidates next Friday.

  • Parliament has risen for Easter recess and will next sit on Tuesday 19 April.

  • The next meeting of Belfast City Council will take place on Monday.

  • Secretary of State for NI Brandon Lewis MP has confirmed that a cultural package, including an Irish Language Act, will not be introduced before the Assembly Election.

  • Bidding for the second round of the UK Government’s Levelling Up Fund is now open. The Fund’s three strategic investment themes are local transport, high street regeneration, and cultural heritage.

  • According to the Financial Times, the UK Government is open to considering the creation of Joint First Ministers in Northern Ireland as part of a move to improve the stability of the political institutions.

  • The Department for Infrastructure’s latest planning statistics have revealed significant delays are continuing to hamper the progress of applications for local, major, and regionally significant projects.

  • The NI Chamber’s ‘5 Leaders, 5 Days’ series continues next week with addresses from Alliance leader Naomi Long on Monday and Sinn Féin Vice-President Michelle O’Neill on Tuesday. To attend: LINK.

  • The Belfast Chamber’s Business Awards will take place at the Grand Central Hotel next Friday.

Other Stories this week

  • The UUP has published its Assembly Election Manifesto, with policy commitments for each Executive department including a gradual reduction in Corporation Tax to 15%, a Skills Fund, and the establishment of a Health and Social Care Chief Executive. It can be viewed here: LINK

  • Sir Jeffrey Donaldson MP has set out the DUP’s ‘5-Point Plan’ for the next Assembly mandate which will include policies to expand Northern Ireland’s apprenticeship programme, create new jobs in tech, and implement healthcare reforms.

  • The Health and Social Care Board ceased operating on Thursday, marking a key stage in the transformation of the health service in Northern Ireland.

  • The latest Economic Index statistics have shown the Northern Ireland economy grew by 1.2% in the final quarter of 2021 with economic output reaching its highest levels since 2008.

  • Northern Ireland’s SME sector has recorded a 4% rise in profits in the year leading up to February 2022.

Upcoming key political and business events

  • 28 March – 5 April, NI Chamber 5 Leaders 5 Days, Europa Hotel

  • 7 April, BelTech 2022

  • 8 April, Belfast Chamber Business Awards

  • 5 May, Northern Ireland Assembly Election

  • 10 May, State Opening of Parliament

  • 26 May, Belfast Telegraph Business Awards, Crowne Plaza Hotel, Belfast

  • 30 June, Irish News Workplace and Employment Awards, Titanic Belfast

Consultations