#AE22 Brown O'Connor NI Assembly Election Constituency Profile: South Down

#AE22 Constituency Profile: South Down

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

  • South Down is a large constituency which includes the Mountains of Mourne, the northern shore of Carlingford Lough, Kilkeel, Newcastle, Warrenpoint and the village of Strangford. Downpatrick is the largest town with a population of just over ten thousand.

  • The hamlet of Katesbridge is in the north-western part of the constituency and is often mentioned in early morning weather reports as the coldest location in Northern Ireland (due to its situation in drumlin countryside).

  • The constituency has the third largest electorate eligible to vote in May’s poll.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

  • Sinn Féin achieved a record result in 2017 with 38.6% of the vote, continuing the trend of increasing their vote at every Assembly election.

  • Meanwhile, SDLP fell below 30% of the vote for the first time since 1998 (when they won 3 of the 6 seats).

  • DUP bucked the trend with a 3.5% increase in vote share.

  • Alliance had a record result of 9.2% at the last Assembly election (stretching that to a vote share of 13.9% at the 2019 Westminster poll).

SINCE 2017

  • Sinn Féin MLA Chris Hazzard was elected to Westminster at the 2017 General Election.

  • Emma Rogan was co-opted into his seat but was de-selected by the party for May’s election.

  • Sinéad Bradley is not standing again for the SDLP.

  • Jim Wells was deselected by the DUP and is not seeking re-election. He has recently quit the DUP and declared his support for the TUV candidate.

THE DAY OF THE COUNT

  • If the first preference tallies for Sinn Féin and the SDLP fall below 60%, that’s likely to favour Alliance picking up the fifth seat.

  • To date, Alliance have never beaten 10% vote share at an Assembly election in South Down, and their high water mark at Westminster was 13.9%.

  • In 2017, there was a gap of three and a half thousand first preference votes between the DUP and UUP, and also between the UUP and TUV candidates. Will voters punish the DUP for deselecting Jim Wells? And will Harold McKee attract support from UUP and Jim Wells to TUV?

COMMENTARY

South Down has always been a hotly contested seat within nationalism since 1998, with Sinn Féin and the SDLP picking up more than 60% of the votes and a majority of the seats.

Sinn Féin outpolled the SDLP for the first time at Assembly level in 2017 and will be seeking to hold that position. Chris Hazzard was returned to Westminster in 2019 but with a big swing of over 7% away from him. Alliance and Aontú were the beneficiaries. Hazzard’s replacement on the Assembly benches upon becoming an MP was Emma Rogan. Subsequently de-selected by the party, local councillor Cathy Mason takes Rogan’s place on May’s ballot paper, running alongside incumbent MLA, Sinéad Ennis.

With the SDLP’s Sinéad Bradley not seeking re-election, Councillor Karen McKevitt has put herself forward for a return to Stormont, having served there 2011–2016. She’ll be on the ticket beside incumbent Colin McGrath, who held his seat in 2017 by 738 votes over Alliance’s Patrick Brown. With Brown’s strong Westminster performance in 2019, Alliance will be fighting to take control of the second SDLP seat.

It’s all change among the unionist candidates. Incumbent DUP MLA Jim Wells was not selected and is replaced with Councillor Diane Forsythe who bested former party leader Edwin Poots for the South Down nomination. She will be the favourite to hold the only unionist seat in the constituency.

TUV candidate Harold McKee was the UUP MLA for South Down from 2016-2017. He left the UUP in October 2021, blaming Doug Beattie’s promotion of “liberal issues”. Jim Wells is backing him at this election. Councillor Jill Macauley is running for the UUP.

PREDICTIONS

  • Two Sinn Fein, One DUP, One SDLP

  • The fifth seat is likely to flip from the SDLP to Alliance.

#AE22 Brown O'Connor NI Assembly Election Constituency Profile: East Londonderry

#AE22 Constituency Profile: East Londonderry

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

  • The towns of Coleraine and Limavady are in the East Londonderry constituency, along with popular coastal destinations like Portrush, Portstewart, and Castlerock.

  • According to the 2011 Census, 53% of the population are from a Protestant community background, while 42% are from a Catholic community background.

  • East Londonderry is seven times larger (in terms of area) and a much more rural constituency than neighbouring Foyle.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

  • SDLP vote has declined in the previous two Assembly elections making the seat more marginal.

  • Sinn Féin have increased their vote in this constituency at every Assembly election but have narrowly missed out on winning two seats in recent elections.

  • DUP has been polling over 30% of the vote in every Assembly election since 2003.

  • UUP MLA David McClarty resigned from the party when he was deselected in January 2011 and held the seat as an independent: the UUP have never been able to win it back.

SINCE 2017

  • Cara Hunter replaced SDLP’s John Dallat as MLA following his death in May 2020.

  • DUP’s George Robinson is not standing again for re-election.

THE DAY OF THE COUNT

  • East Londonderry was one of two constituency counts which stretched across 12 stages before electing the final candidates. With a similar-sized field of candidates in May, this year’s count may well be as long and drawn out.

  • The candidate with the highest number of first preferences – Sinn Féin’s Caoimhe Archibald – was still over a thousand votes short of the quota at the end of the first stage, and had to wait until stage 12 to finally be elected.

  • The DUP polled exactly two quotas of first preferences, split over three candidates in 2017. Will they hold their vote share in May?

  • Will independent Claire Sugden retain her 12% vote share against Alliance’s strong showing in recent opinion polls?

COMMENTARY

There’s an independent streak to East Londonderry, with ex-UUP independent unionist Boyd Douglas winning an Assembly seat in 1998, and ex-UUP David McClarty holding his seat in 2011 as an independent (and outpolling the combined first preferences of the two UUP candidates who replaced him).

Claire Sugden – McClarty’s parliamentary assistant for five years – was co-opted into his seat upon his death in 2014, and held it with an increased vote share in 2016 (becoming Minister of Justice) and an improved performance again in 2017 when she was first to reach the quota (in the eighth stage). The former Justice Minister attracts first preferences and transfers from various quarters with Ulster Unionists and Alliance voters seeing her liberal politics as an attractive home. Sugden is on the cusp of being the first independent since 1998 to win three elections in a row.

In 2017, this constituency was a real worry for the SDLP as their vote had been in constant decline over the previous elections. John Dallat returned from his retirement at the 2016 election and won back his seat, beating Sinn Féin’s Cathal Ó hOisín and overcoming a challenge by his deselected SDLP predecessor who stood against him as an independent. After Dallat’s death in 2020, Cara Hunter took on the seat following a strong Westminster result in 2019 where she came a surprise second. Hunter’s seat looks much more comfortable for the SDLP this time around. 

The DUP’s Maurice Bradley is standing again, this time alongside Councillor Alan Robinson, the son of his former constituency colleague. Hoping to make inroads in this constituency are Darryl Wilson (UUP) and returning candidates Chris McCaw (Alliance) and Jordan Armstrong (TUV). 

PREDICTIONS

  • One Independent, One DUP, One SDLP, One Sinn Féin

  • The final seat could be a toss-up between DUP, Alliance, and potentially the UUP or TUV.

Manufacturing Month to celebrate local manufacturing resilience and excellence

Manufacturing NI leadership team, Stephen Kelly and Mary Meehan.

Manufacturing Month, a major initiative to showcase the potential and enhance the excellence of Northern Ireland’s manufacturing sector, returns this May for its second year.

Spearheaded by Manufacturing NI, the entire month of May will shine a light on the great work, innovation, and people within the local manufacturing community. A packed programme includes numerous events, webinars, lots of content from the sector, and the flagship ‘Anchor High’ leadership summit and inaugural Manufacturing Hall of Fame dinner in the Galgorm Resort on 12 May.

Focused on the people that make manufacturing one of the leading sectors within the Northern Irish economy, Manufacturing Month will highlight the skilled workers, leaders, apprentices, and educators who make the sector the world-leading success story it is.

Sponsored by KPMG, Pinsent Masons, Barclays, and Lockton Companies LLP, and supported by Invest NI and Northern Ireland’s six further education colleges, Manufacturing Month was first launched pre-Covid in March 2020 and brings together manufacturing firms, industry leaders, policy and key decision makers, schools, and young people to recognise the strengths of the sector, the great careers which are enjoyed and are possible, and celebrate the contribution local firms make to our economy and solving problems globally.

(Left to Right): Johnny Hanna, Partner in Charge, KPMG Ireland, Nigel Birney, Head of Trade Credit, Lockton Companies LLP, John Mathers, Corporate Development Director, Barclays, Mary Meehan, Deputy Chief Executive, Manufacturing NI, Laura Gillespie, Partner, Pinsent Masons and Stephen Kelly, Chief Executive, Manufacturing NI at the launch of Manufacturing Month 2022.

Stephen Kelly, Chief Executive, Manufacturing NI said:

“The first ever Manufacturing Month was cut short due to the arrival of the Covid pandemic in March 2020, so this May is an opportunity to refocus and reset after a difficult couple of years. Manufacturing Month shines a light on the people and the great firms who make the sector what it is, the people who have led by example during the pandemic.

“Despite everything that has been thrown at the sector since 2020 – Covid, Brexit, war in Europe, supply chain stresses and huge cost rises - the sector is buoyant and optimistic and poised to create more wealth and work in every community across Northern Ireland.

“As our economy and our society emerges from the Covid pandemic, it’s vital that we do all that we can to support our manufacturers. Northern Ireland is an attractive place to do business because of the talent on offer, our unique dual market access, and the incredibly creative, resilient, and brave leaders at every level in our industry. We must cherish and celebrate what makes manufacturing in Northern Ireland so great, and initiatives like Manufacturing Month are great opportunities to do just that.”

Jonny Hanna, Partner in Charge, KPMG Belfast said:

“KPMG are very pleased to be involved in this year’s Manufacturing Month once again. Whether it’s aeronautical engineering, food and drink manufacturers, pharmaceuticals, or emerging industries like AI, Northern Ireland proudly punches above its weight on the global stage. As a firm, KPMG works with a number of local leading manufacturers and we are excited to be backing the sector through Manufacturing Month, an important initiative which will help inspire the next generation of sector leaders.”

Laura Gillespie, Partner, Pinsent Masons added:

“Pinsent Masons are delighted to be supporting this year’s Manufacturing Month and we look forward to recognising the success and ingenuity of Northern Ireland’s manufacturing sector. With strong traditional links to the sector in Northern Ireland, Pinsent Masons looks forward to celebrating the abundance of talent and innovation, driving the post-Covid economic recovery, and helping attract inward investment from abroad. Manufacturing Month is a welcome occasion to shine a positive light on our great manufacturing companies, workers, and leaders.  Pinsent Masons is proud to play a part in such an important initiative.”

#AE22 Brown O'Connor NI Assembly Elections Constituency Profile: North Down

#AE22 Constituency Profile: North Down

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

  • North Down stretches along the coastline from Holywood, Helen’s Bay, Bangor, Donaghadee to Millisle. The slim constituency only stretches as far inland as Conlig and stops well short of the population centres of Dundonald and Newtownards.

  • Across the 18 constituencies, the 2011 Census reports that North Down has the lowest population proportion from a Catholic community background (12.6%), the highest brought up without a religious background (11.8%) and the second highest from a Protestant community background (74.4%).

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

  • For decades, a mainly Unionist constituency with a majority of its MLAs coming from that designation. A female unionist has never been elected to the Assembly from North Down.

  • In 2017, candidates in the Other designation took a third of the first preference votes. North Down was the first constituency that saw a Green breakthrough (Brian Wilson) at the Assembly level in 2007. Only the second constituency ever in Northern Ireland to elect an Alliance MP.

  • North Down has never had a nationalist candidate returned to Stormont, and 2003 was the last year that nationalist parties took more than 5% of the vote share at an Assembly election.

  • Thirty years ago, the Northern Ireland Conservatives achieved their best result in the 1992 General Election when Laurence Kennedy polled 32% of the vote, coming second behind the incumbent MP Jim Kilfedder (43%) who was running under the Ulster Popular Unionist Party banner having left the UUP back in 1977. By the next election in 1995, the Conservative vote had dropped to 2.1%.

  • Forty years ago, Jim Kilfedder topped the poll in North Down in the 1982 Assembly Election, and was elected as Speaker of the Assembly. In an obituary, fellow MP Tam Dalyell wrote “I walked through the streets of Bangor with Kilfedder. Progress was snail-like. Everyone seemed to stop to have a word with him and he introduced his constituents by name to his Westminster colleagues.”

  • Turnout in 2017 was the lowest in Northern Ireland. However, for North Down, this was the best percentage turnout at an Assembly election since 1998.

SINCE 2017

  • The UUP’s Alan Chambers is the only North Down MLA to have completed the full five year Assembly term and stayed in their party.

  • Rachel Woods (Green) replaced Steven Agnew in October 2019.

  • Andrew Muir (Alliance) replaced Stephen Farry in December 2019.

  • In June 2021, Stephen Dunne (DUP) replaced his father Gordon Dunne who died just 11 days after standing down from the Assembly.

  • Alex Easton resigned from the DUP in July 2021 and has subsequently sat as an independent MLA.

THE DAY OF THE COUNT

  • Although it took 8 stages to complete the count in 2017, the result was obvious after the first stage with just five candidates polling more than 5,000 votes, and the next highest candidate only garnering 1,246 first preferences.

  • Alex Easton topped the poll in 2017 and his surplus easily brought home his DUP running mate Gordon Dunne who was just 172 first preference votes shy of the quota. Stephen Farry (Alliance) and Alan Chambers (UUP) were also over quota. Steven Agnew (Green) was 1,112 votes shy of the quota after the first stage.

  • This year’s count is likely to take a similar number of stages, but the result will not be as certain after the first count completes.

  • On 6 May, watch the first preference results to see whether the DUP+UUP+TUV+Easton first preferences still add up to over three quotas for Unionists, or whether the Alliance+Green votes now exceed two quotas and show growth in the Other designation.

COMMENTARY

North Down is home to resignations and mavericks. Alex Easton is following a long path well trodden by many before him in this constituency.

Elected representatives who leave a political party and stand as an independent tend to poll badly. In 2016, former Green Party leader Brian Wilson stood as an independent. Alan McFarland resigned from the UUP in 2010 and stood against his old party in 2011 in an attempt to retain his assembly seat. Both were defeated.

However, the personal touch in North Down can bring success. Alex Easton will be hoping that North Down voters remain loyal to him and value his constituency work in the same way they continued to return Sylvia Hermon to Westminster after she left the UUP.

Easton’s former DUP colleagues – Stephen Dunne and Councillor Jennifer Gilmour – are seeking to hold the party’s two seats and stop him. The TUV have also re-entered the race, further fragmenting the unionist vote. If the DUP is bracing for losses elsewhere, it will need a good performance in North Down.

Incumbent co-opted MLAs, Andrew Muir (Alliance) and Rachel Woods (Green) will be seeking to build on their parties’ previous electoral success and achieve strong mandates.

Unlike the Greens, Alliance is running a second candidate in this election with local Councillor Connie Egan on the ticket for the first time. The surge to Alliance in the 2019 General Election that elected Stephen Farry to Westminster with a majority of nearly 3,000 and a 45% vote share was in a race with only four candidates. A big swing towards Alliance from their 18.6% share in 2017 would make Egan competitive for Alliance.

Sitting MLA Alan Chambers – back in the UUP since December 2015 – is also seeking re-election and should have no issue holding his seat, although better balancing of votes with his running mate could delay his election to a later stage. 

PREDICTIONS

  • One DUP, One UUP, One Alliance, One Green

  • Battle between DUP and Easton for the last seat unless a big swing to Alliance brings Egan home ahead of the sitting Green.

Brown O'Connor Communications Weekly Look Ahead: Week Commencing 11 April 2022

Forward Look                                

  • The Institute of Irish Studies-University of Liverpool/The Irish News poll found Sinn Féin has extended its lead over the DUP with 27% of first-preference votes, in comparison to the DUP’s 20.2%. Alliance remains on course to be the Assembly’s third largest party.

  • The DUP published its ‘5-Point Plan’, prioritising fixing the NHS, growing the economy, keeping schools world-class, helping working families, and removing the NI Protocol: LINK

  • BBC NI announced its election coverage plans with the Party Leaders’ Debate taking place on Tuesday 3 May at 9pm.

  • Aodhán Connolly, director of the NI Retail Consortium, will lead the NI Executive Office in Brussels from 25 April.

  • Alliance is expected to publish its manifesto on 20 April, the Green Party manifesto is expected to be published on 21 April, and Sinn Féin is expected to publish its manifesto on 25 April.

  • The Queen’s Speech on 10 May is likely to include a Brexit Freedoms Bill making it easier to amend or remove retained EU law. A Levelling Up and Regeneration Bill on devolved matters is also set to be included.

  • Belfast City Council is considering establishing a Poverty Commission for the city.

  • The Fiscal Commission’s final report is to be published after the Assembly Election in May.

  • PWC’s 2022 Economic Outlook found that Belfast is ranked 16th in the top 30 European headquarter locations.

  • According to the Scottish Widows Index, financial wellbeing in households across the UK is at its lowest point in two years.

  • A Northern Ireland Chamber of Commerce survey found NI businesses continued to recover from the impact of Covid-19 in Q1 of 2022 but over three quarters of businesses expect to raise prices in the next three months.

Other Stories this week

  • John Callinan was appointed as Secretary General of the Department of the Taoiseach.

  • Belfast City Council launched the Belfast Business Idea 2022.

  • Addressing the Dáil, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked Irish leaders to convince the EU to introduce more rigid sanctions against Russia.

  • Pivotal, the Public Policy Forum, found NI has the lowest level of educational attainment across the UK.

  • The Northern Ireland Fraud Forum has been established to promote fraud awareness among businesses and the public and third sector.

Upcoming key political and business events

  • 28 April, CBI’s An Audience with Northern Ireland’s Political Leaders, The Great Hall Queen’s University

  • 28 April, Belfast Chamber’s Spring Networking Reception, Whites Garden

  • 5 May, Northern Ireland Assembly Election

  • 10 May, State Opening of Parliament

  • 12 May, Anchor High Summit, Manufacturing NI, Galgorm Hotel and Spa

  • 26 May, Belfast Telegraph Business Awards, Crowne Plaza Hotel, Belfast

  • 21 June, House of Commons rises for Summer Recess

  • 30 June, Irish News Workplace and Employment Awards, Titanic Belfast

Consultations

#AE22 Brown O'Connor NI Assembly Election Constituency Profile: East Antrim

#AE22 Constituency Profile: East Antrim

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

  • A long thin constituency, stretching down the eastern coast of Northern Ireland from the Glens of Antrim, through Larne and finishing near the Ulster University campus at Jordanstown on the northern foreshore of Belfast Lough.

  • The 2011 Census reports that 53.3% of the East Antrim constituency population are from a Protestant community background, while 41.7% are from a Catholic community background.

  • East Antrim had the second lowest percentage turnout in 2017.

  • It has the smallest population of any constituency in Northern Ireland, and according to the 1 April electoral register, also has the smallest number of eligible voters.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

  • The UUP picked up a second seat – their only gain – in the 2017 Assembly election.

  • The drop from six to five seats at that election squeezed out Sinn Féin’s Oliver McMullan, leaving East Antrim without a nationalist representative.

  • Alliance’s Danny Donnelly polled very strongly (27%) in the 2019 General Election, adding more than 4,000 votes on top of Stewart Dickson’s 2017 Westminster tally.

  • East Antrim has yet to elect a female MLA.

SINCE 2017

  • One of only four constituencies to start and finish the Assembly term with all five elected MLAs. The five male incumbents are all seeking re-election.

  • Former Sinn Fein MLA, Oliver McMullan is seeking a return to Stormont.

  • Siobhan McAlister is standing for the SDLP for the first time.

THE DAY OF THE COUNT

  • With nobody elected over quota in 2017, this was a slow count. David Hilditch was elected after stage 3 and the next two candidates elected after the sixth stage.

  • Will the DUP’s combined first preferences still exceed two quotas?

  • Can Alliance’s two candidates outpoll the incumbent UUP pair in the first stage to make a viable challenge for the final seat as they pick up transfers in later stages?

COMMENTARY

East Antrim is a solid unionist constituency with a majority of its MLAs from that designation since 1998.

Despite the constituency’s demographic, the high level of support for Alliance, together with the reduction to five seats, makes it difficult for a nationalist to get elected. Sinn Féin lost their seat here in 2017 and it would take a big swing towards Sinn Féin to make Oliver McMullan competitive.

The only woman to be nominated to stand for one of the major parties is the SDLP’s Siobhán McAlister. Once excluded in the fourth stage in 2017, SDLP votes split 3:2 in favour of Alliance over Sinn Féin.

The DUP are playing it safe in East Antrim and have pared back their ticket to just run the two sitting MLAs, David Hilditch and Economy Minister Gordon Lyons.

East Antrim went against the tide of many other constituencies, with a UUP gain for John Stewart that kept his party’s seat count in double figures. But Alliance are trying to flip that seat this May to bring home Danny Donnelly who polled very strongly in the 2019 Westminster election.

A buoyant TUV would expect their candidate Norman Boyd to make big gains on their normal 4-5% of the vote share. If the party isn’t competitive right next door to Jim Allister’s North Antrim constituency, their performance is unlikely to live up to opinion poll expectations.

PREDICTIONS

  • Two DUP, One UUP and One Alliance.

  • Battle between UUP and Alliance for the last seat.

#AE22 Brown O'Connor NI Assembly Election Constituency Profile: West Tyrone

#AE22 Constituency Profile: West Tyrone

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

  • Strabane, Castlederg, Omagh and Carrickmore fall inside the West Tyrone constituency boundary.

  • While not quite the largest in terms of area, West Tyrone is proportionately the most rural constituency.

  • It had the third highest turnout in the last Assembly election.

  • A West Tyrone MLA has never gone on to become an Executive Minister.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

  • Sinn Féin has always taken more than 40% of the first preference vote since 2007.

  • The SDLP has increased its vote at every election since 2011.

  • At the 2019 Westminster election, Alliance outpolled the UUP.

SINCE 2017

  • Declan McAleer is the only one of the three Sinn Féin MLAs elected in 2017 who is standing again. Barry McElduff resigned from the Assembly when he was elected to Westminster in June 2017, initially replaced by Catherine Kelly, and then following controversy over a Covid small-business grant, Nicola Brogan took over the seat at the end of October 2020. Maolíosa McHugh was co-opted into Michaela Boyle’s seat in May 2019.

  • The UUP are running former Irish Senator Ian Marshall in the constituency for the first time.

THE DAY OF THE COUNT

  • One of the fastest counts in 2017: just five stages.

  • Will SDLP’s Daniel McCrossan consolidate his increasing support and reach a quota of first preferences to be elected in the first stage?

  • Will Sinn Féin be able to match their 48% share of the vote in 2017 with such a changed line up?

  • The UUP were well ahead of Alliance in terms of first preferences back in 2017. But Alliance outpolled the UUP at the 2019 General Election. Both parties’ candidates will be straining to stay ahead of each other to challenge for Sinn Féin’s third seat.

COMMENTARY

West Tyrone is a constituency with a history of political upsets and returning fortunes for parties. Both the UUP and SDLP have lost seats here and regained them at subsequent elections.

Sinn Féin is fighting to hold onto the three seats they first secured in 2011 and managed to retain with the shift to five-seater constituencies. The party polled a strong 48% of the first preference vote in 2017 and they will need a similar share in May to safely return their three candidates. There has been a lot of churn within their Assembly team: six Sinn Féin MLAs have sat on the Assembly Chamber’s benches to represent West Tyrone since the 2017 election. This is the first Assembly electoral test for Nicola Brogan and Maolíosa McHugh.

A likely win for Daniel McCrossan will make him the first SDLP MLA in West Tyrone to win three elections in a row. His vote rose sharply between the 2016 and 2017 Assembly elections and the SDLP will want to bank that growth.

Thomas Buchanan’s seat is one the DUP shouldn’t need to worry about: he was elected with nearly one and a quarter quotas in 2017.

Others to watch on 6 May include Alliance’s Stephen Donnelly who has been building his support from 494 votes in the 2016 Assembly election to 3,979 votes in the 2019 General Election, outpolling the UUP candidate. Transfer-friendly Alliance could be in contention for the last seat, particularly if Sinn Féin’s vote share swings to the SDLP.

UUP candidate Ian Marshall once served in the Irish Senate and was President of the Ulster Farmers’ Union. He’s hoping to win back the seat lost in 2017. Bad feeling – or sour grapes – about his selection amongst some associated with the party has overshadowed his introduction to West Tyrone.

PREDICTIONS

  • Two Sinn Féin, One DUP, One SDLP.

  • The last seat will be a battle between Sinn Féin and the Alliance Party. There’s an outside chance the UUP could be in with a shout.

Law Society’s Justice Agenda highlights urgent priorities for incoming Justice Minister

(L-R) Senior Vice President, Rowan White; President, Brigid Napier and Junior Vice President, Brian Archer

The Law Society of Northern Ireland, the professional body for the solicitor profession, is urging the new Executive to ensure Access to Justice is a priority after the 5 May election. The ‘Justice Agenda 2022’ launched today calls on elected representatives to commit to sustainable and realistic investment to fix the issues that have long plagued Northern Ireland’s Justice system.

The ‘Justice Agenda’ sets out 10 strategic priorities that require urgent attention, including:

  • Protecting the Legal Aid Budget - a ring-fenced budget of not less than £82 million is necessary to protect Access to Justice for our most vulnerable citizens.

  • Closing the Access to Justice Gap – the financial eligibility thresholds for civil legal aid are now 13 years out of date. These must be increased to ensure those on lower incomes have their rights protected.

  • Court Recovery – It is estimated that Northern Ireland’s Crown Court case backlog will extend past 2027. Urgent investment and reform of our Courts must be prioritised to prevent further harm being caused to victims and witnesses.

The Law Society is also calling for progress to address Legacy issues and measures to support economic recovery.

Commenting on the launch of the Justice Agenda 2022, President of the Law Society of Northern Ireland, Brigid Napier said:

“I am pleased to launch the Justice Agenda today to outline the priorities for rebuilding our justice system which, like so many areas of life, is still recovering from the pandemic. As society faces an unprecedented cost of living crisis, it is more important than ever that those in power protect our most vulnerable by ensuring they have Access to Justice.”

“The Law Society is committed to working constructively with the incoming Executive and the next Justice Minister to ensure we have a system that is fit for purpose. Access to Justice must be at the centre of the next Programme for Government and the aim must be to deliver the Justice system that the people of Northern Ireland deserve.”

#AE22 Brown O'Connor NI Assembly Election Constituency Profile: Newry and Armagh

#AE22 Constituency Profile: Newry and Armagh

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

  • This border constituency encircles Armagh and stretches from Loughgall to Crossmaglen, and from Middletown to the city of Newry on its eastern edge. Norbrook Laboratories pharmaceutical company is a major employer.

  • Tayto’s Tangragee plant falls into the Newry and Armagh constituency. Financial technology company First Derivatives are headquartered in Newry.

  • Newry and Armagh has the second largest registered electorate of the eighteen Assembly constituencies – neighbouring Upper Bann has the largest eligible electorate – and by virtue of a solid turnout, it had the highest quota for candidates to reach to be elected in 2017.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

  • Has returned a majority of nationalists in every election since 1998.

  • The DUP’s William Irwin topped the poll in 2017, having increased his share of the vote in every Assembly election since 2011.

  • Sinn Féin held their three seats in 2017 with a massive 7.4% swing to them.

  • SDLP’s Justin McNulty won more first preference votes than any other SDLP candidate, but – like every other SDLP candidate in the 2017 election – he was still under quota in the first stage.

  • The UUP’s Danny Kennedy lost his seat which he had held since 1998.

SINCE 2017

  • Junior Minister Megan Fearon (Sinn Féin) stood down from the Assembly in 2019 and was replaced by Liz Kimmins.

  • While Councillor Sam Nicholson has contested Newry & Armagh for the UUP at the last two Westminster elections, it’s another Councillor, David Taylor who will be on the Assembly ticket for the UUP in May 2022.

THE DAY OF THE COUNT

  • Because the top six candidates were so far ahead of the rest of the field, this was a very fast count with the result obvious after the three smallest candidates were excluded in one swoop.

  • Even with a boosted Alliance vote and a TUV candidate in the mix, this should be another fast count on 6 May.

  • The UUP’s David Taylor will be watching to see if the overall unionist first preference vote share is up, and will want to already be ahead of Sinn Féin’s third candidate in the first stage (as Sinn Féin will pick up more transfers from excluded candidates than the UUP).

COMMENTARY

Newry and Armagh is a constituency that has gone from a battle between the big two nationalist parties (1998–2007) to a battle for the last seat between Sinn Féin and the UUP. 

Sinn Féin had a strong result in 2017 with three well known sitting MLAs running for re-election. This time, Liz Kimmins is up on the Assembly ballot for the first time and the party will want to repeat their strong vote share from 2017.

The SDLP’s Justin McNulty is running again and should be re-elected alongside the DUP’s William Irwin. The SDLP stopped running a second candidate when the constituencies dropped from six to five seats. This May, no party other than Sinn Féin will run a second candidate in Newry & Armagh.

In May 2019’s local government elections, independent Councillor Gavin Malone topped the poll in his Newry DEA. He’s running for the Assembly and may gain traction on local issues.

However, the only serious challenge to Sinn Féin winning the third seat is likely to come from the UUP’s David Taylor who will need to reverse the party’s recent decline in votes to be in with a chance. A big swing from the DUP to UUP would help his chances.

PREDICTIONS

  • Two Sinn Féin, one SDLP, one DUP.

  • Battle between Sinn Féin (favourite) and UUP (outside chance) for the last seat.

'Fraud awareness key to protecting private and public sector' by Bill McCluggage, Chair, Northern Ireland Fraud Forum

As originally appeared by Irish News, 5 April

Bill McCluggage, Chair, NI Fraud Forum, and Matthew Howse, Partner, Eversheds Sutherland

With unprecedented levels of inflation, an ever-tightening squeeze on the labour market, and the cost of fuel and materials across all sectors spiralling at the moment, businesses are operating in an increasingly volatile and unpredictable trading environment. As firms come out the other side of the pandemic, there are challenges for business leaders and employers to grapple with as they get back on their feet again.

While the aforementioned factors are well known to businesses at this stage, awareness of threats like fraud and white-collar crime is weaker. While exact data is scarce for Northern Ireland – which is ironically a problem within itself - PwC’s most recent Economic Crime Survey found that over half of Irish businesses have experienced economic crime in the last 24 months.

With pandemic lockdowns and a surge in online shopping, as well as a reliance on internet communication, fraudsters have taken advantage of changing habits. People living in Northern Ireland are not immune from fraud and while you might expect the risk of fraud to be the same wherever you live in the UK, Action Fraud figures show that people are over twice as likely to report being a victim of any type of fraud in the East of England than those living and working in Northern Ireland.   

The Northern Ireland Fraud Forum is a new and innovative organisation which aims to promote fraud awareness among businesses and the public and 3rd sector in Northern Ireland, allow members to understand how best to mitigate against the risks involved, and increase knowledge of how to respond effectively to fraud. Launching today at a hybrid event in the MAC and online, the Forum mirrors similar organisations from across the UK and Ireland who are committed to educating business owners and entrepreneurs about the threat, signals, and consequences of fraud.

Comprised of private sector industry professionals like Eversheds Sutherland, Grant Thornton, and PKF-FPM, as well as public organisations like HMRC and the PSNI, the Forum is a public-private-3rd sector partnership which seeks to address a gap in the local business community by dedicating itself to the prevention and investigation of fraud and economic crime.

The government is making concerted moves to address and tackle fraud. In his recent Spring Statement, Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced an investment of £48m for a new counter-fraud authority over the next three years to step up efforts against fraud and recover millions of pounds. Trade body UK Finance estimates that around £7bn is lost to economic crime in the UK each year. This is a staggering figure for our economy to be bleeding on an annual basis. On a macro level, this means lost investment and innovation in our wider economy. On a micro level, as we’ve seen with some high-profile local examples over the past number of years, this means reduced hours for staff, pay cuts, redundancies and, regrettably, in the case of personal fraud, life changing circumstances.

The Northern Ireland Fraud Forum is keen to play a key role in spotting instances of fraud, tackling economic crime, and educating local businesses about the consequences of fraud on their operations. This new initiative will do just that, and we would encourage businesses of all shapes and sizes to get involved and help spread awareness of the dangers of fraud.