#AE22 Constituency Profile: Newry and Armagh
ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY
This border constituency encircles Armagh and stretches from Loughgall to Crossmaglen, and from Middletown to the city of Newry on its eastern edge. Norbrook Laboratories pharmaceutical company is a major employer.
Tayto’s Tangragee plant falls into the Newry and Armagh constituency. Financial technology company First Derivatives are headquartered in Newry.
Newry and Armagh has the second largest registered electorate of the eighteen Assembly constituencies – neighbouring Upper Bann has the largest eligible electorate – and by virtue of a solid turnout, it had the highest quota for candidates to reach to be elected in 2017.
PREVIOUS ELECTIONS
Has returned a majority of nationalists in every election since 1998.
The DUP’s William Irwin topped the poll in 2017, having increased his share of the vote in every Assembly election since 2011.
Sinn Féin held their three seats in 2017 with a massive 7.4% swing to them.
SDLP’s Justin McNulty won more first preference votes than any other SDLP candidate, but – like every other SDLP candidate in the 2017 election – he was still under quota in the first stage.
The UUP’s Danny Kennedy lost his seat which he had held since 1998.
SINCE 2017
Junior Minister Megan Fearon (Sinn Féin) stood down from the Assembly in 2019 and was replaced by Liz Kimmins.
While Councillor Sam Nicholson has contested Newry & Armagh for the UUP at the last two Westminster elections, it’s another Councillor, David Taylor who will be on the Assembly ticket for the UUP in May 2022.
THE DAY OF THE COUNT
Because the top six candidates were so far ahead of the rest of the field, this was a very fast count with the result obvious after the three smallest candidates were excluded in one swoop.
Even with a boosted Alliance vote and a TUV candidate in the mix, this should be another fast count on 6 May.
The UUP’s David Taylor will be watching to see if the overall unionist first preference vote share is up, and will want to already be ahead of Sinn Féin’s third candidate in the first stage (as Sinn Féin will pick up more transfers from excluded candidates than the UUP).
COMMENTARY
Newry and Armagh is a constituency that has gone from a battle between the big two nationalist parties (1998–2007) to a battle for the last seat between Sinn Féin and the UUP.
Sinn Féin had a strong result in 2017 with three well known sitting MLAs running for re-election. This time, Liz Kimmins is up on the Assembly ballot for the first time and the party will want to repeat their strong vote share from 2017.
The SDLP’s Justin McNulty is running again and should be re-elected alongside the DUP’s William Irwin. The SDLP stopped running a second candidate when the constituencies dropped from six to five seats. This May, no party other than Sinn Féin will run a second candidate in Newry & Armagh.
In May 2019’s local government elections, independent Councillor Gavin Malone topped the poll in his Newry DEA. He’s running for the Assembly and may gain traction on local issues.
However, the only serious challenge to Sinn Féin winning the third seat is likely to come from the UUP’s David Taylor who will need to reverse the party’s recent decline in votes to be in with a chance. A big swing from the DUP to UUP would help his chances.
PREDICTIONS
Two Sinn Féin, one SDLP, one DUP.
Battle between Sinn Féin (favourite) and UUP (outside chance) for the last seat.