#AE22 Constituency Profile: East Antrim
ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY
A long thin constituency, stretching down the eastern coast of Northern Ireland from the Glens of Antrim, through Larne and finishing near the Ulster University campus at Jordanstown on the northern foreshore of Belfast Lough.
The 2011 Census reports that 53.3% of the East Antrim constituency population are from a Protestant community background, while 41.7% are from a Catholic community background.
East Antrim had the second lowest percentage turnout in 2017.
It has the smallest population of any constituency in Northern Ireland, and according to the 1 April electoral register, also has the smallest number of eligible voters.
PREVIOUS ELECTIONS
The UUP picked up a second seat – their only gain – in the 2017 Assembly election.
The drop from six to five seats at that election squeezed out Sinn Féin’s Oliver McMullan, leaving East Antrim without a nationalist representative.
Alliance’s Danny Donnelly polled very strongly (27%) in the 2019 General Election, adding more than 4,000 votes on top of Stewart Dickson’s 2017 Westminster tally.
East Antrim has yet to elect a female MLA.
SINCE 2017
One of only four constituencies to start and finish the Assembly term with all five elected MLAs. The five male incumbents are all seeking re-election.
Former Sinn Fein MLA, Oliver McMullan is seeking a return to Stormont.
Siobhan McAlister is standing for the SDLP for the first time.
THE DAY OF THE COUNT
With nobody elected over quota in 2017, this was a slow count. David Hilditch was elected after stage 3 and the next two candidates elected after the sixth stage.
Will the DUP’s combined first preferences still exceed two quotas?
Can Alliance’s two candidates outpoll the incumbent UUP pair in the first stage to make a viable challenge for the final seat as they pick up transfers in later stages?
COMMENTARY
East Antrim is a solid unionist constituency with a majority of its MLAs from that designation since 1998.
Despite the constituency’s demographic, the high level of support for Alliance, together with the reduction to five seats, makes it difficult for a nationalist to get elected. Sinn Féin lost their seat here in 2017 and it would take a big swing towards Sinn Féin to make Oliver McMullan competitive.
The only woman to be nominated to stand for one of the major parties is the SDLP’s Siobhán McAlister. Once excluded in the fourth stage in 2017, SDLP votes split 3:2 in favour of Alliance over Sinn Féin.
The DUP are playing it safe in East Antrim and have pared back their ticket to just run the two sitting MLAs, David Hilditch and Economy Minister Gordon Lyons.
East Antrim went against the tide of many other constituencies, with a UUP gain for John Stewart that kept his party’s seat count in double figures. But Alliance are trying to flip that seat this May to bring home Danny Donnelly who polled very strongly in the 2019 Westminster election.
A buoyant TUV would expect their candidate Norman Boyd to make big gains on their normal 4-5% of the vote share. If the party isn’t competitive right next door to Jim Allister’s North Antrim constituency, their performance is unlikely to live up to opinion poll expectations.
PREDICTIONS
Two DUP, One UUP and One Alliance.
Battle between UUP and Alliance for the last seat.