New body launched to fight fraud in Northern Ireland

Bill McCluggage, Chair, NI Fraud Forum; and Matthew Howse, Dispute Resolution and Litigation Partner, Eversheds Sutherland.

An innovative private-public-third sector partnership has been launched to help spread awareness of the dangers of fraud and white-collar crime in Northern Ireland.

The Northern Ireland Fraud Forum is a new organisation which brings together representatives from the business community, professional advisors and practitioners, the public sector, and organisations from the community and voluntary sector.

The forum, launched this morning at a virtual event in the MAC in Belfast’s Cathedral Quarter, aims to promote fraud awareness among businesses, the public sector, and 3rd sector in Northern Ireland, allow members to understand how best to mitigate against the risks involved, and increase knowledge of how to respond effectively to fraud.

The new body is chaired by Bill McCluggage, managing director of Laganview Associates and former Chief Information Officer for the Irish Government. The forum is comprised of private sector industry professionals like Eversheds Sutherland, Grant Thornton, and PKF-FPM, as well as public organisations like HMRC and the PSNI.

Speaking at the launch of the NI Fraud Forum in Belfast this morning, Forum Chair Bill McCluggage said:

“The Northern Ireland Fraud Forum is a timely and important initiative for businesses and organisations across the country. Coming out of the pandemic, firms are operating in an increasingly volatile and unpredictable trading environment with unprecedented costs and record levels of inflation. Threats like fraud, scams, and white-collar crime present serious challenges for business owners and can have a significant knock-on and even life-changing effect for workers and households.

“Trade body UK Finance estimates that around £7bn is lost to economic crime in the UK every year, a staggering and worrying figure. Locally, this is compounded by the fact that Action Fraud figures show that people are over twice as likely to report being a victim of any type of fraud in the East of England than those living and working in Northern Ireland. There is much more to do to make businesses aware of the dangers of fraud in Northern Ireland, and this new forum hopes to mirror other organisations from across the UK which do excellent work in minimising the threat posed by fraud.”   

Matthew Howse, Eversheds Sutherland Partner –Dispute Resolution and Litigation, added:

“Eversheds Sutherland are proud to be involved in this new initiative which will raise awareness of the dangers of fraud and promote best practice among the public, private, and third sectors in Northern Ireland. Fraud, white-collar crime, and increasingly sophisticated digital scams are a severe risk to businesses and organisations of all kinds and, in the worst instances, can lead to redundancies and life-changing circumstances.

“The Northern Ireland Fraud Forum is a body which seeks to bring together the expertise of leading professional advisors and practitioners, as well as organisations at the frontline of the fight against fraud like HMRC and the PSNI, in an effort to professionalise the response to fraud locally. This is the first step in tackling economic crime and educating local business owners, employers, charities, voluntary groups, and other organisations about how to spot fraud, deal with it, and ultimately avoid its worst consequences.”

Local and international tech experts join line up as BelTech returns in person

Vice President of Technology Products at Unosquare Mark Brown, Catherine Paul, Lead Software Engineer at Kainos, Lord Mayor of Belfast Councillor Kate Nicholl, Managing Director of Liberty IT Tony Marron and Kevin Higgins, Technical Lead at Allstate NI

Belfast man David Singleton, who heads up the multibillion-dollar Silicon Valley payments giant Stripe, is among the lineup for the popular tech conference BelTech as it returns in person for the first time in three years. 

Tech expert and CTO of Stripe David will be joined by Carlos Alzate, a Senior AI Advisor from AI Fund, who will travel in from Colombia for the ninth annual BelTech conference at Titanic Belfast on Thursday 7 April.

An event for local technologists and business leaders, BelTech will this year focus on the challenges of delivering a software product to market.

Lord Mayor of Belfast Councillor Kate Nicholl will open the event, which will also be addressed by Tony Marron, new Managing Director at Liberty IT, Chloe McAteer, Senior Software Engineer at Hamilton Robson and Wendy Kelly, Senior Team Manager at Allstate Northern Ireland.

An opportunity to meet and collaborate across the local and international technology ecosystem, BelTech is once again curated by technologists from three of Northern Ireland’s largest technology companies; Kainos, Allstate NI and Liberty IT.

Chief Technology Officer at Stripe David Singleton

Sessions will include: 

  • Secure Digital Transformation in 2022 and Beyond with Wesley Pullen, Field CTO at Cloudbees, Washington

  • Sustainable Tech, a panel discussion chaired by Journalist Amanda Ferguson featuring David Anderson, Bazaarvoice, Ricardo Sueiras, Open Source AWS and Alexandra Mousavizadeh, Tortoise Media

  • Bolstering Big Data with AI in E-commerce with Jordan McDonald, BazaarVoice

  • How to Win Cloud and Influence People with Chloe McAteer, Hamilton Robinson

  • API Versioning: The Hippocratic Oath with Catherine Paul, Kainos

  • A Day in the Life of an Engineer on GitHub with Colin Dembovsky, Field Solutions Engineer, GitHub Texas

BelTech 2022 is supported by Kainos, Allstate NI, Liberty IT, Unosquare, Expleo, Options and Belfast City Council. 

BelTech Curator and Group CTO at Kainos Tom Gray said:

“The aim of BelTech is to celebrate and give a platform to local influential tech voices and to help spark ideas and collaboration within our sector by inspiring the next generation of software professionals.”

“Technologists across Northern Ireland are working to push the boundaries of what we can offer as a solution to the challenges we face in society. This is reflected in the schedule for this year’s BelTech conference which will bring together a talented roster of professionals. Returning in person, we are also pleased to be welcoming global tech experts who are known around the world for their innovations.”

Kevin Higgins, Technical Lead at Allstate NI said: 

“Every year BelTech is a dynamic and exciting event that profiles the local tech industry and sparks new ideas. With phenomenal and inspirational speakers in the programme, we are proud to be involved in this year’s event. As technologists, we rely on collaboration and knowledge sharing with our peers, now more than ever after two years of independent working. Being from the North West, it is fantastic to be involved and play a role in one of Northern Ireland’s largest annual technology conferences.”

Tony Marron, Managing Director of Liberty IT said: 

“Every year BelTech is a dynamic and exciting event that profiles the local tech industry and sparks new ideas. With phenomenal and inspirational speakers in the programme, we are proud to be involved in this year’s event. As technologists, we rely on collaboration and knowledge sharing with our peers, now more than ever after two years of independent working. It is fantastic to be involved and play a role in one of Northern Ireland’s largest annual technology conferences.”

“We are pleased to once again be involved in a conference that will unite local and international technologists for a lively programme about software delivery and the challenges of making it to market. We have no doubt that BelTech will spark valuable discussions and connections amongst our collaborative when it returns to Titanic Belfast on 7 April.” 

To find out more and register for the virtual conference which takes place on Thursday 7 April, visit: https://beltech.co/

#AE22 Brown O'Connor NI Assembly Election Constituency Profile: Belfast North

#AE22 Constituency Profile: Belfast North

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

  • Belfast North is 100% urban according to NISRA's definition, and is the third smallest constituency by area.

  • Many of the city’s peace walls run through north Belfast.

  • It’s the most deprived constituency (using NISRA’s measure of the proportion of super output areas (SOA) in each constituency which lie within the top 10% most deprived SOAs in Northern Ireland).

  • Belfast North has the highest unemployment in Northern Ireland according to latest experimental claimant count.

  • The 2011 Census reports that 46.9% of Belfast North population was from a Catholic community background, and 45.7% Protestant.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

  • DUP suffered a high profile loss in 2017 with the defeat of Nelson McCausland.

  • The combined Unionist share was 42.8% versus 42.5% for Nationalism. Yet Nationalists won three out of five seats in 2017.

  • In fact, nationalists have held 3 seats in Belfast North since 2003 (2 Sinn Féin and 1 SDLP).

  • Fourth lowest constituency turnout in 2017 Assembly election.

  • The results came in a rush in 2017, with two (DUP) candidates elected in stage 6, and the remaining three elected under quota in stage 7.

SINCE 2017

  • One of only four constituencies which started and finished the term with all 5 MLAs who had been elected in March 2017

  • Both sitting DUP candidates are standing down: deputy leader Paula Bradley and William Humphrey.

  • TUV are running a candidate in the constituency; they didn’t stand in the 2017 Assembly election.

  • Former PUP councillor and Assembly candidate Julie-Anne Corr-Johnston is running for the UUP in this election.

THE DAY OF THE COUNT

  • Expect a repeat of 2017 with no candidate being elected over the quota in the first stage given the well-balanced and competitive field.

  • Sinn Féin’s vote balancing has improved, but in previous elections Gerry Kelly has always polled more than running mate Carál Ní Chuilín.

  • Alliance will be hoping for strong transfers from excluded Green and UUP candidates.

COMMENTARY

The North Belfast area is incredibly competitive in local, Assembly and Westminster elections. Two deputy leaders are seeking election, though DUP’s Paula Bradley is not standing.

The party suffered setbacks in the constituency with big-name losses such as Nigel Dodds and Nelson McCausland. Going into this election, the DUP hold two relatively safe Assembly seats and are not trying to regain a third. With both sitting MLAs standing down, the DUP are running two council group leaders: Brian Kingston (Belfast City Council) and Phillip Brett (Antrim & Newtownabbey Borough Council).

While other unionist parties are running higher profile campaigns in the constituency this year, they are unlikely to be competitive unless unionist turnout improves. Former PUP candidate Julie-Anne Corr Johnston is running under the UUP flag, while Ron McDowall is running for the TUV.

The Infrastructure Minister and SDLP deputy leader, Nichola Mallon, should be able defend her seat without any great problems. Green Party deputy leader Mal O’Hara will still be well shy of a quota, but will be hoping to boost the party’s share for local government elections in 2023.

The real battle is between Sinn Féin and Alliance. Narrowly missing out on a seat in 2017, Councillor Nuala McCallister is running again and hopes to capitalise on the Alliance surge that swept across Belfast in 2019. Her success would most likely come at the expense of one of the sitting Sinn Féin MLAs, Gerry Kelly or Carál Ní Chuilín. Belfast North is one of Alliance’s top targets for a gain. Missing out here would indicate lower chances of gains in other constituencies.

PREDICTIONS

  • Two DUP seats with one SDLP and one Sinn Féin.

  • The last seat will be a tight battle between Sinn Féin and Alliance.

Brown O'Connor Communications Weekly Look Ahead: Week Commencing 4 April 2022

Forward Look                                

  • The final Lucid Talk-Belfast Telegraph poll of the parties before the Assembly Election has placed Sinn Féin on course to be the largest party on 26%, followed by the DUP (19%), Alliance (16%), the UUP (13%) and the SDLP (11%).

  • Following the dissolution of the NI Assembly on Monday, the Electoral Office will publish a full list of election candidates next Friday.

  • Parliament has risen for Easter recess and will next sit on Tuesday 19 April.

  • The next meeting of Belfast City Council will take place on Monday.

  • Secretary of State for NI Brandon Lewis MP has confirmed that a cultural package, including an Irish Language Act, will not be introduced before the Assembly Election.

  • Bidding for the second round of the UK Government’s Levelling Up Fund is now open. The Fund’s three strategic investment themes are local transport, high street regeneration, and cultural heritage.

  • According to the Financial Times, the UK Government is open to considering the creation of Joint First Ministers in Northern Ireland as part of a move to improve the stability of the political institutions.

  • The Department for Infrastructure’s latest planning statistics have revealed significant delays are continuing to hamper the progress of applications for local, major, and regionally significant projects.

  • The NI Chamber’s ‘5 Leaders, 5 Days’ series continues next week with addresses from Alliance leader Naomi Long on Monday and Sinn Féin Vice-President Michelle O’Neill on Tuesday. To attend: LINK.

  • The Belfast Chamber’s Business Awards will take place at the Grand Central Hotel next Friday.

Other Stories this week

  • The UUP has published its Assembly Election Manifesto, with policy commitments for each Executive department including a gradual reduction in Corporation Tax to 15%, a Skills Fund, and the establishment of a Health and Social Care Chief Executive. It can be viewed here: LINK

  • Sir Jeffrey Donaldson MP has set out the DUP’s ‘5-Point Plan’ for the next Assembly mandate which will include policies to expand Northern Ireland’s apprenticeship programme, create new jobs in tech, and implement healthcare reforms.

  • The Health and Social Care Board ceased operating on Thursday, marking a key stage in the transformation of the health service in Northern Ireland.

  • The latest Economic Index statistics have shown the Northern Ireland economy grew by 1.2% in the final quarter of 2021 with economic output reaching its highest levels since 2008.

  • Northern Ireland’s SME sector has recorded a 4% rise in profits in the year leading up to February 2022.

Upcoming key political and business events

  • 28 March – 5 April, NI Chamber 5 Leaders 5 Days, Europa Hotel

  • 7 April, BelTech 2022

  • 8 April, Belfast Chamber Business Awards

  • 5 May, Northern Ireland Assembly Election

  • 10 May, State Opening of Parliament

  • 26 May, Belfast Telegraph Business Awards, Crowne Plaza Hotel, Belfast

  • 30 June, Irish News Workplace and Employment Awards, Titanic Belfast

Consultations

Collaborating with others is the key to Northern Ireland’s tech success

As originally appeared in the Newsletter on Friday 1 April.

Mark Brown, Vice President of Technology Products at Unosquare

Two years ago, no one could have anticipated the challenges our society and our sector would face due to the Covid-19 pandemic. No longer could we work amongst our peers in the office, instead we socialised, worked, and networked from our screens.

Now with light at the end of the tunnel, we have been able to gradually return to the office, rekindle connections and create new ones with peers in our sector.

Throughout all of this, however, our ability to conference and collaborate with others has suffered. Virtual conferences like BelTech 2020 and 2021 allowed us to maintain relationships and still learn from others, yet the in-person chat and networking over a coffee was missing.

We technologists are always curious and on the lookout for big developments that can solve our world’s problems. The last two years has impeded on our ability to hear from other practitioners to learn about what they are doing and delivering for people across Northern Ireland.

That is why this year’s BelTech conference, which takes place on 7 April at Titanic Belfast, has never been more important. After two years of the world staying connected through the powers of digital technology, there is more value than ever before in uniting in person to share and learn from each other’s valuable insights.

The opportunities that technology offers to solve the problems of our region cannot be underestimated. The climate crisis, financial investments, data collection and skills accessibly can all be tackled through innovation. Yet without collaboration and peer learning, the task of developing new technological solutions will be greater.

That is why BelTech is a first-class opportunity to bring technologists and innovators back in person at the iconic and exciting Titanic Belfast to learn from each other.

This year’s event will focus on Software Delivery and the challenges of making it to market, two areas that we know will have value to the thousands of technologists working in NI. Sessions will cover the importance of multi-disciplinary teams, the challenges of working with live systems and designing technology for future change.

A number of panel discussions will also examine the issue of sustainability and carbon impact which will focus on how the Belfast tech sector can contribute to our city’s carbon neutral ambition.

The conference that unites technologists and business leaders from across the country, BelTech 2022 will challenge, celebrate, and inspire an explosion of activity when we meet in person next Month.

To find out more about BelTech 2022 visit: www.beltech.co

#AE22 Brown O'Connor NI Assembly Election 2022 Constituency Profile: North Antrim

#AE22 Constituency Profile: North Antrim

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

  • The North Antrim constituency is 97% rural and takes in the north east corner of Northern Ireland (including the towns of Ballymena, Ballymoney and Ballycastle) excluding the sliver of coastal Glens that fall into the East Antrim constituency.

  • The Giants’ Causeway and Rathlin Island fall within this constituency. The ballot box from the island’s polling station will have to travel by boat to Ballycastle before making its way over land to the count centre in Ulster University’s Jordanstown Campus.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

  • Sinn Féin’s Philip McGuigan topped the poll in 2017, though wasn’t elected until the sixth stage.

  • SDLP haven’t won a seat since Declan O’Loan failed to be re-elected in 2011.

  • DUP have always performed well in North Antrim, keeping three seats until the drop from six to five constituencies in 2017. However, the DUP’s vote share has been dropping at Assembly elections since a peak of 40% back in 2007, and their third candidate was not competitive in 2017.

  • TUV polled 16.0% of the vote in 2017 and North Antrim was the only constituency in which they ran two candidates.

SINCE 2017

  • One of just four constituencies with all MLAs elected in 2017 standing again in 2022.

  • Alliance’s share of the vote has risen significantly: from 5.4% in the 2017 Assembly poll to 14.1% in the 2019 General Election.

  • The TUV are performing strongly in opinion polls; North Antrim is one of their key targets to win another seat.

THE DAY OF THE COUNT

  • North Antrim was one of the slowest constituencies to declare its first candidates elected: it was stage 6 before Philip McGuigan and Robin Swann hit the quota.

  • If the DUP hold their vote share, then both their candidates will be elected over the quota on first preference votes. If neither is over quota, then the DUP vote has plummeted and the TUV and/or UUP may benefit.

  • If UUP first preferences are finely balanced between their two candidates, it could lead to a very interesting count in terms of the order of exclusions. However, it’s likely that Robin Swann will receive a large personal vote that dooms his running mate’s chances and helps Alliance’s chances of a win.

COMMENTARY

North Antrim is a solid Unionist constituency with a majority of unionist MLAs being returned at every election. North Antrim is a heartland for the DUP, and Ian Paisley Snr’s base for 40 years. 

Likewise, for the TUV, this constituency has been fertile ground for the party, providing it with an MLA seat and a cadre of local councillors. The TUV have thus far outpolled the UUP in every Assembly election. North Antrim is their best chance to get a second candidate elected, but they will need a very large swing.

According to polling, Health Minister Robin Swann is one of the most popular ministers in the Executive and has enjoyed a high profile through his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. His popularity and profile have encouraged the UUP to run a second candidate (Bethany Ferris) at this election. 

Philip McGuigan from Sinn Féin will be aiming to hold his seat. Since 1998, there has always been at least one Nationalist seat in the constituency.

But the rise of the Alliance Party could deliver the first female to represent North Antrim in the Northern Ireland Assembly. In 2019, the party made breakthroughs at the local and Westminster elections in North Antrim. Patricia O’Lynn is running again for the party and has a path to win the seat if she polls ahead of the SDLP’s Eugene Reid and then benefits from critical transfers.

PREDICTIONS

  • Two DUP, One TUV, One UUP.

  • Last seat is a battle between Sinn Féin and Alliance.

Five Ministers Address Future High Streets Summit

(L-R) Glyn Roberts, Retail NI Chief Executive; Helen Wall, Retail NI vice-President; Conor Burns MP, Minister of State for Northern Ireland; and Julie Galbraith, Head of Real Estate in Northern Ireland at DWF Law.

Five Ministers from across the UK and Ireland addressed the Retail NI Future High Streets Summit in Belfast today, outlining their vision for the regeneration and transformation of high streets.

Tánaiste Leo Varadkar TD, NIO Minister of State Conor Burns MP, Shadow Levelling Up Minister Alex Norris MP, Agriculture Minister Edwin Poots and Communities Minister Deirdre Hargey all addressed one of the largest ever attended high street conferences here.

Tánaiste Leo Varadkar TD told business leaders attending the Summit that the future of retail is hybrid, with both brick-and-mortar and online stores crucial in high street regeneration.

Virtually addressing attendees, Ireland’s Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment pointed to the pandemic as ushering in a third way of doing business under a new and improved hybrid model.

Minister of State for Northern Ireland, Conor Burns MP, spoke about the UK Government’s vision for the high streets of Northern Ireland and how the Levelling Up funding will help the regeneration of the high streets, with £49 million already being invested in innovative projects across Northern Ireland.

 Shadow Minister for Levelling Up, Alex Norris MP, also spoke on the UK Government’s recent White Paper and how levelling up can be delivered on a local level in Northern Ireland.

The in-person conference took place this morning and promoted a new vision for our high streets post-pandemic and discussed how local, regional and national governments can deliver real change for local towns and cities.

Sponsored by DWF Law, the Summit was hosted by broadcaster Tara Mills and featured panel discussions with Executive Ministers on the Assembly’s future economic priorities ahead of May’s election. The Summit also considered key strategic documents including the work of the newly formed High Street Task Force.

Tánaiste and Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment, Leo Varadkar TD said:

“Two years ago, none of us could have predicted the terrible consequences that Covid-19 would have on our previously bustling high streets and shopping centres. From business closures to stay-at-home orders, necessary public health measures meant that, while our population was protected, many bricks and mortar traders were devastated. Many adapted quickly, moving online, setting up delivery services and finding other ways to hold on to their customers.” 

“Now as we emerge from the pandemic and rebuild, this conference has been a really good opportunity to share our experiences and find ways to work more closely together for a strong, prosperous all-island economy. I strongly believe that the future for retail is hybrid with physical stores and on-line shopping providing a new and even better retail experience.”

Minister of State for Northern Ireland, Conor Burns MP, said:

“Northern Ireland high streets have enormous potential, great produce and wonderful customer service. It is that personal touch and connection which brings people back into shops again and again and it’s something which I personally value.”

“Through the Levelling Up Fund, the Government is already delivering support to Northern Ireland's retail sector. Antrim and Newtownabbey Borough Council, for example, received £1.2 million from the first round of funding to help revitalise their town centre and improve the experience of everyone who spends time there.”

“As we look ahead to the next round of Levelling Up funding, I look forward to working closely with partners in the Northern Ireland Executive and the Irish Government, as well as those in the business sector, to ensure we continue delivering for the people of Northern Ireland.”

Chief Executive of Retail NI, Glyn Roberts said:

“There is no doubt we are not short of strategy and policy when it comes to the future of our high streets. The Executive’s Investment Strategy, Infrastructure 2050, UK Government’s Levelling Up White Paper and the Northern Ireland High Street Taskforce report all set out ambitious plans for our town centres.”

“The question that Retail NI members ask is how we get local, regional and national governments all pushing in the one direction and more importantly how all these policy priorities can be delivered so we can create 21st century high streets. Alongside a dynamic retail and hospitality offering we also need to ensure they become multi-functional hubs with libraries, community services, police stations, healthcare, leisure, education, open spaces, housing and sports facilities.”

Head of Real Estate in Northern Ireland at DWF Law, Julie Galbraith said:

“We were thrilled to partner with Retail NI for its Future High Streets Summit. Our town and city centres are thriving hubs of innovation and growth, best evidenced through Northern Ireland’s ever-growing independent retail sector. Supporting our high streets does not just boost jobs and economic activity, it helps build stronger communities that work together to improve livelihoods and build prospects. It was great to get speaking to those business and political leaders in attendance at this morning’s excellent Summit.”

#AE22 Brown O'Connor NI Assembly Election 2022 Constituency Profile: Belfast East

#AE22 Constituency Profile: Belfast East

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

  • Belfast East is the largest of the four Belfast constituencies by area, and is the least densely populated.

  • The constituency has produced big political hitters and party leaders like Peter Robinson, Reg Empey, John Alderdice and Naomi Long.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

  • DUP vote marginally increased in 2017, bucking the Northern Ireland-wide downward trend.

  • Alliance have increased their vote at every Assembly election in the constituency since 2003.

  • Once fertile ground for the PUP, the party hasn’t been competitive since they lost the seat in 2011 and the DUP began to seriously canvas for loyalist votes in east Belfast.

  • After a collapse at the 2011 Assembly election, the UUP vote has been rising.

SINCE 2017

  • While one of only four constituencies with all five MLAs elected in 2017 still in place at the end of the term – albeit with Naomi Long handing over to Máire Hendron for six months after the European Election – only three of those candidates are standing for re-election.

  • The former PUP candidate and deputy leader Councillor John Kyle left the party and soon after joined the UUP.

THE DAY OF THE COUNT

  • Will Alliance outpoll the DUP in terms of first preference votes for the first time?

  • Belfast East’s fifth candidate was elected in stage 11: only East Londonderry took more stages to elect its MLAs in 2017.

 COMMENTARY

Belfast East was once a predictable constituency, but the rise of the Alliance Party has challenged the DUP’s dominance (and that of unionism) at Assembly and Westminster elections. Fielding just two candidates each, neither party is seeking to win extra seats.

This is the only constituency that has so far ever elected more than one Alliance MLA. The party broke the 30% vote share threshold in 2017, and could be the top polling party in 2022. They’ll easily return their two candidates. Party stalwart Chris Lyttle is bowing out of frontline politics and will be replaced on the ballot by Belfast City Councillor Peter McReynolds.

Councillor David Brooke is a new face for the DUP, replacing former Speaker Robin Newton and will be running alongside sitting MLA, Joanne Bunting. The DUP has always held at least two seats in Belfast East since 1998 and would still be expected to do so at this election, even if their vote share decreases.

The UUP are adding to their ticket, hoping to capitalise on local defections and promote more female candidates with Lauren Kerr running alongside sitting MLA, Andy Allen. However, with less than one quota of UUP first preferences at the last election, this move is really about bolstering support for the 2023 local government elections.

The TUV’s candidate in 2016 and 2017, Andrew Girvin, has been moved to Belfast South and replaced on the ballot with John Ross.

The SDLP have polled exactly 250 first preference votes in two of the last three Assembly elections, a quarter of the support that Sinn Féin typically attracts.

For the Greens, Councillor Brian Smyth is aiming to build on progress in the local election for the party. This is the party’s top target. Winning in May 2022 would require more than doubling their best performance to date (Ross Brown in 2016) but they will be hopeful of building momentum for a future election.

PREDICTIONS

  • Two DUP. Two Alliance. One UUP.

 

'Soaring demand at Belfast leisure centres reflects shift in public priorities towards health and wellbeing' writes Gareth Kirk, Regional Director at GLL

As originally appeared in The Belfast Telegraph, Tuesday 29 March 2022

Regional Director of GLL Gareth Kirk

The return of spring and brighter evenings brings with it the refreshing sight of runners filling the pavements and families walking in parks on sunny mornings. It brings a renewed commitment to getting outdoors and being active, and one that is always welcome after the dark of winter.

Though the evidence of this is beginning to appear in our local communities in line with the change of seasons, the step-change in the public’s attitude towards health and wellbeing has been clear within the leisure sector for some time now.

There is no doubt the pandemic years changed our relationship with exercise. For many it became an escape from reality, a break in the repetitive daily cycle that was lockdown. Walking or running outdoors and working out on zoom became the norm for most of us, and the notion of exercise as a mental wellbeing tool grew in momentum.

Two years on, it is clear this commitment has stuck. In Belfast alone, usage rates at gyms and leisure centres right across the city have reached an all-time high as membership numbers surpass pre-pandemic levels.

As a charitable social enterprise working to support people to live active and healthy lifestyles, we are pleased to be delivering leisure services to over 20,000 individuals. That’s an additional five thousand individuals investing in their wellbeing compared to before the pandemic, plus the thousands more that make use of our services without a financial commitment.

While this may be a relatively quick change in the public attitude, it is vital that we ensure it is converted into positive societal impact for years to come.

Over 350,000 people in Northern Ireland are now known to be waiting for a first consultant-led outpatient appointment, according to the Department of Health. These pressures are continuing to grow, yet behind every one is an individual waiting for answers, often living in discomfort and pain as they make their way up the list.

Though this is an issue that will take years to work through, there is a renewed sense of commitment among the public to doing all that we can, as citizens, to ease the pressure. The threat that Covid-19 posed to many people’s health, including those with underlying conditions, came as a wake-up call to many, and one that is no doubt reflected in the uplift in usage numbers we are seeing right across Belfast.

This is an encouraging reaction, yet one that we must ensure is transformed into sustained improvements across the public health sphere. The people of Belfast are some of the most active across the whole of the UK, as evidenced by the 120% return to activity compared to an average 80% return in other regions, but we must convert this into tangible improvements in the areas that impact the health, wellbeing and daily lives of individuals.

Leisure has the power to lower obesity rates, support diabetes patients, provide rehabilitation services to the public and ease the pressure on physical and mental health services. It also has the power to stimulate the economy and we are already seeing our ability to create new employment opportunities and offer new training programmes grow.

Currently, we are filling roles within our new customer service centre in Belfast, which provides direct support to users of the 371 Better facilities across the UK and gives candidates the chance to learn on the job. Our trainee management scheme continues as demand at centres across the city grows, and the Leisure Employment Academy provides on the job training and qualifications for the economically inactive.

This shift in demand shows us the momentum for healthier living is there, and the public has already began taking matters into their own hands and working towards a healthier and brighter future and every benefit that comes with it.

 Now is the time to build on that momentum, and as a social enterprise, we know it is vital that leisure remains to be accessible and affordable for all if we are to achieve this.

#AE22 Brown O'Connor NI Assembly Election 2022 Constituency Profile: Foyle

#AE22 Constituency Profile: Foyle

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

  • The Foyle constituency is the second most deprived after Belfast West.

  • Unemployment in Foyle is second only to Belfast North according to latest figures from NISRA’s experimental claimant count (which includes Jobseeker’s Allowance Claimants and those Universal Credit claimants who were claiming principally for the reason of being unemployed).

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

  • Following the death of Martin McGuinness, Sinn Féin scored a record share of the vote with 36.6% in the 2017 Assembly election.

  • Until the 2016 Assembly election, the SDLP vote share always exceeded 35%. It dropped to 30.0% in 2016, recovering a little to 31.8% in 2017.

  • DUP bucked their Northern Ireland-wide trend with an uptick in their vote share of 1.5% in 2017.

SINCE 2017

  • Only two of the five MLAs elected in 2017 are still in position.

  • There have been a total of 5 co-options covering 3 seats since 2017.

  • Sinead McLaughlin replaced SDLP leader Colum Eastwood in 2019 when he won the Westminster seat.

  • Sinn Féin have a totally new MLA team, having cycled through six MLAs in the constituency over the past five years.

  • Eamonn McCann has stepped back from frontline politics. He was a former MLA and the highest profile voice for People Before Profit.

THE DAY OF THE COUNT

  • If only running only two candidates, expect Sinn Féin to get one elected over quota on first preferences. However it could be a long wait to see the final seats settled.

  • Keep an eye on the level of support for People Before Profit, Aontú and independent Anne McCloskey. Their support is strong in Foyle. Their support may eat into other nationalist party’s share and affect the order of exclusions.

COMMENTARY

Foyle has been a strong battleground between the SDLP and Sinn Fein for decades. Traditionally it’s been one of the SDLP’s strongest constituencies. At its peak, the SDLP held three seats and more recently has held onto two safe assembly seats. The party is running two incumbent MLAs, Mark H. Durkan and Sinead McLaughlin, along with former Mayor, Councillor Brian Tierney in a bid to capitalise their resounding Westminster win in 2019 and regain the third Assembly seat.

Sinn Féin have had a difficult time since their success in 2017. The removal of sitting MLAs together with poor results at local and Westminster elections has led to turnover within the party’s local ranks. The party’s latest MLAs, Padraig Delargy and Ciara Ferguson, will be trying to hold the party’s two seats.

Traditionally, there is a Unionist quota in this constituency. Gary Middleton is the standard-bearer for the DUP in Foyle, but People Before Profit came within 663 votes of his seat in 2017.  Whilst Sinn Féin and the SDLP will be fighting each other for votes, they will also have their eye on this DUP seat. For Sinn Féin it will be to hold their ground against any potential surge for their main nationalist rivals in the constituency. 

A DUP or a Sinn Féin loss could be a significant factor in which party wins the largest number of MLAs and can nominate the First Minister. Added into this mix is former Aontú deputy leader Anne McCloskey who left the party over its stance on Covid-19 and is standing as an independent candidate. She polled over 1,000 first preferences in the 2019 local government election and is likely to exceed that in May across the larger constituency.  

PREDICTIONS

  • Two safe SDLP seats and one safe Sinn Fein seat.

  • Last two seats are quite competitive with DUP, second Sinn Fein and third SDLP candidate in the running.