#AE22 Constituency Profile: West Tyrone
ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY
Strabane, Castlederg, Omagh and Carrickmore fall inside the West Tyrone constituency boundary.
While not quite the largest in terms of area, West Tyrone is proportionately the most rural constituency.
It had the third highest turnout in the last Assembly election.
A West Tyrone MLA has never gone on to become an Executive Minister.
PREVIOUS ELECTIONS
Sinn Féin has always taken more than 40% of the first preference vote since 2007.
The SDLP has increased its vote at every election since 2011.
At the 2019 Westminster election, Alliance outpolled the UUP.
SINCE 2017
Declan McAleer is the only one of the three Sinn Féin MLAs elected in 2017 who is standing again. Barry McElduff resigned from the Assembly when he was elected to Westminster in June 2017, initially replaced by Catherine Kelly, and then following controversy over a Covid small-business grant, Nicola Brogan took over the seat at the end of October 2020. Maolíosa McHugh was co-opted into Michaela Boyle’s seat in May 2019.
The UUP are running former Irish Senator Ian Marshall in the constituency for the first time.
THE DAY OF THE COUNT
One of the fastest counts in 2017: just five stages.
Will SDLP’s Daniel McCrossan consolidate his increasing support and reach a quota of first preferences to be elected in the first stage?
Will Sinn Féin be able to match their 48% share of the vote in 2017 with such a changed line up?
The UUP were well ahead of Alliance in terms of first preferences back in 2017. But Alliance outpolled the UUP at the 2019 General Election. Both parties’ candidates will be straining to stay ahead of each other to challenge for Sinn Féin’s third seat.
COMMENTARY
West Tyrone is a constituency with a history of political upsets and returning fortunes for parties. Both the UUP and SDLP have lost seats here and regained them at subsequent elections.
Sinn Féin is fighting to hold onto the three seats they first secured in 2011 and managed to retain with the shift to five-seater constituencies. The party polled a strong 48% of the first preference vote in 2017 and they will need a similar share in May to safely return their three candidates. There has been a lot of churn within their Assembly team: six Sinn Féin MLAs have sat on the Assembly Chamber’s benches to represent West Tyrone since the 2017 election. This is the first Assembly electoral test for Nicola Brogan and Maolíosa McHugh.
A likely win for Daniel McCrossan will make him the first SDLP MLA in West Tyrone to win three elections in a row. His vote rose sharply between the 2016 and 2017 Assembly elections and the SDLP will want to bank that growth.
Thomas Buchanan’s seat is one the DUP shouldn’t need to worry about: he was elected with nearly one and a quarter quotas in 2017.
Others to watch on 6 May include Alliance’s Stephen Donnelly who has been building his support from 494 votes in the 2016 Assembly election to 3,979 votes in the 2019 General Election, outpolling the UUP candidate. Transfer-friendly Alliance could be in contention for the last seat, particularly if Sinn Féin’s vote share swings to the SDLP.
UUP candidate Ian Marshall once served in the Irish Senate and was President of the Ulster Farmers’ Union. He’s hoping to win back the seat lost in 2017. Bad feeling – or sour grapes – about his selection amongst some associated with the party has overshadowed his introduction to West Tyrone.
PREDICTIONS
Two Sinn Féin, One DUP, One SDLP.
The last seat will be a battle between Sinn Féin and the Alliance Party. There’s an outside chance the UUP could be in with a shout.