#AE22 Brown O'Connor NI Assembly Election Constituency Profile: Belfast South

#AE22 Constituency Profile: Belfast South

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

  • According to the 2011 Census, Belfast South is the constituency which is most balanced between people brought up in Catholic (44.0%) and Protestant (43.7%) community backgrounds, and has by far the highest proportion of population (nearly double) from other religions (2.8%).

  • Belfast South has the lowest proportion of population registered to vote in the constituency; at 63.1%, it’s the only constituency below 70% (the Northern Ireland average is 72.2%).

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

  • DUP attracted the most first preference votes (20.8%) in the constituency in 2017. The vote share between the two DUP candidates was nearly perfect and the 83 vote gap in the first stage slowly reduced to just over 25 votes by the end of the ninth stage when Emma Little Pengelly was excluded and her transfers brought Christopher Stalford home.

  • SDLP fell below 20% of the vote for the first time at an Assembly election.

  • UUP made inroads with a 2.3 percentage point increase in their first preference vote, but 9.0% in 2017 is still only a third of their share back in 2003.

  • Sinn Féin achieved their best ever result in Belfast South with 17.7% of the vote in 2017.

SINCE 2017

  • Matthew O’Toole was co-opted to replace Claire Hanna following her election to Westminster in 2019.

  • Deirdre Hargey was co-opted to replace Máirtín Ó Muilleoir in January 2020.

  • Edwin Poots is the new DUP MLA following the death of Christopher Stalford.

THE DAY OF THE COUNT

  • If you’re following the Belfast South count, stock up with snacks: the #awake4bailey hashtag was apt given the 3am declaration of the final seat.

  • Sinn Féin picked up just over a quota of first preference votes in 2017. Can they repeat that success in May and consolidate that rise in support?

  • Can the Greens break through the 10% vote share for the first time in Belfast South?

  • The DUP’s two candidates picked up one and a quarter quotas of first preference votes in 2017 which means that Edwin Poots should be elected over the quota in the first stage unless there has been a very sharp drop in DUP support.

  • Unionist candidates have polled around two quotas of first preferences in the last two Assembly elections. If that support is sustained, the UUP stand a chance of narrowly winning a seat.

COMMENTARY

Belfast South is often touted as the most politically diverse constituency in Northern Ireland. All five seats are held by different parties, and in some cases by very fine margins: the vote share of the four largest parties in the constituency ranged from 17.7% to 20.8% in 2017.

It has been home to many well-known political figures in Northern Ireland’s history. This mix of fine margins and big personalities makes it one of the constituencies that pundits and journalists pay particular attention to at election time.

The SDLP are running two first time candidates, Matthew O’Toole and Elsie Trainor. Incumbent O’Toole would be the favourite to hold the party’s sole seat in the constituency. While the SDLP will be hopeful of making some electoral progress following Claire Hanna’s landslide win at the 2019 General Election, taking two seats would be hard to achieve. 

Alliance are also running two candidates, both high profile figures. Incumbent MLA Paula Bradshaw is seeking a third term as an MLA. She is running alongside the current Lord Mayor of Belfast, Kate Nicholl who has received praise for her performance in the civic role she took up on 1 June 2021. It’s not impossible that Nicholl could beat Bradshaw in the polls if the party isn’t careful with its vote management strategy. Like the SDLP, Alliance would require quite a surge in their vote to achieve two seats. 

Political veteran Edwin Poots is running for the DUP for the first time in Belfast South, having switched from Lagan Valley (and lost out on his bid to succeed Jim Wells on the South Down ballot). The DAERA Minister is the only DUP candidate this time, and even with the swing away from his party predicted by opinion polls, he would be expected to hold this seat that he has inherited from the late Christopher Stalford.

Another minister running for the first time is Sinn Féin’s Deirdre Hargey. Nominated as Minister for Communities two days after joining the Assembly in January 2020, Hargey will be attempting to hold the seat first gained by the party in 2003. Sinn Féin scored a record result in 2017 and it’s worth keeping an eye on how much of Ó Muilleoir’s vote stays with Hargey.

There could be quite a fight for the fifth seat. A few percentage points growth or decline for any party could radically change the electoral mathematics in the final stages of the count.

The Green Party leader Clare Bailey is seeking a third term. Her party has enjoyed increased electoral success at local government level and has garnered some momentum in recent weeks with the success of some of its private member’s bills.

The UUP are targeting Belfast South to win back the seat they lost in 2016. Stephen McCarthy is running for the first time for the UUP in the constituency. If the Beattie Bounce is happening anywhere, it would need to be happening here. 

An initial 384 vote gap between Michael Henderson (UUP) and Clare Bailey (Green) widened in nearly every subsequent stage of the 2017 count. But if the eventual DUP winner’s surplus had been distributed – as it is likely to be in May with just one DUP candidate running – it could have placed Henderson within a hundred votes of Bailey.

A drop in unionism’s share of the vote will favour the Greens. But a surging Alliance could gain preferences at the Green’s expense. Which could bring the UUP across the line ahead of the Greens. It’ll be a long night.

PREDICTIONS

  • One DUP, One Sinn Féin, One SDLP, One Alliance, One Green.

  • But never rule out a surprise in Belfast South.

Belfast Chamber sets out five steps to transform city’s economy post-election

(L - R): Simon Hamilton, Belfast Chamber Chief Executive; Leona Barr, Centre Manager, CastleCourt; Zoe Watson, Operations Director, Clover Group; Michael Stewart, Belfast Chamber President; Peter McCausland, Director, Value Cabs

Membership body says nothing short of full Executive return will do for Belfast businesses

The Belfast Chamber has called on candidates in the city to support its plans to revitalise Belfast’s economy following May’s election.

Launching today, Belfast Chamber’s Belfast City Commitment asks election candidates to support their five-fold programme to make Belfast one of Europe’s leading innovative and sustainable cities. It’s ‘5 Commitments For A Better Belfast’ sets out five asks of the next Executive and Assembly in areas including infrastructure, governance, connectivity, and housing in an attempt to help Belfast reach the standard set by competitor cities like Liverpool, Leeds and Birmingham.

Growing the city centre population by 20,000 and making Belfast a people-centred, safe, and clean city are among the priorities set out in the policy document. Specific proposals include the delivery of a Belfast city centre housing plan, an upgrade of the city’s water and sewage system, and a review into the powers of local government across Northern Ireland.

The membership body, which represents over 800 businesses, has called for the immediate restoration of the Executive following May’s poll.  Belfast Chamber Chief Executive, Simon Hamilton, says that the city is “perfectly positioned to push on” and be a catalyst for Northern Ireland’s economic regeneration, but that an absent Stormont could hamper Belfast’s future growth.

Belfast Chamber Chief Executive, Simon Hamilton, said:

“Belfast’s story is not fully written. Our city is still a work in progress, emerging from the challenges of the past, but headed towards a brighter future. To that end, we are asking candidates in the upcoming Assembly election to help our city realise its potential. Not in twenty or thirty years, but now.”

“Our Belfast City Commitment asks election candidates to pledge their support for five steps we believe will spark a gear-change in how we do business in the city. If implemented, our asks will transform Belfast into an innovative, inclusive, and sustainable city fit for whatever the future may hold. What we need is Stormont support to help us achieve that.”

“An absent Executive following next week’s poll would deliver nothing for the Belfast economy and would impact negatively on the city’s growth. Anything short of a full return will damage investment prospects, hamper long-term development, and would endanger the hard-earned progress we have made over recent years. Our message to the next cohort of MLAs is clear and unequivocal: to deliver for Belfast, we need the Executive to return immediately.”

“Belfast is the engine room of our regional economy and is perfectly positioned to push on and provide more jobs, more investment, and more regeneration for the whole of Northern Ireland. Belfast businesses have, time and time again, demonstrated their commitment to the city through investing in regeneration projects and creating jobs. In our Belfast City Commitment, we ask our Assembly candidates to do the same.”

#AE22 Brown O'Connor NI Assembly Election Constituency Profile: Fermanagh and South Tyrone

#AE22 Constituency Profile: Fermanagh and South Tyrone

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

  • Fermanagh and South Tyrone is geographically the largest of the eighteen constituencies. It has just 31 registered voters per square kilometre, a fiftieth of the eligible voter density of Belfast South (1630 voters/sq km).

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

  • Sinn Féin had a really strong result in 2017 with 42.1% of the vote. They won back the third seat they had lost to the SDLP in 2016 despite the switch from six to five seat constituencies, and despite the SDLP vote share increasing by 1.4 percentage points.

  • DUP lost their second seat here in 2017 (party chair Lord Morrow) suffering a 2.8 percentage point swing against them.

  • The UUP last held two seats in Fermanagh & South Tyrone back in 2003 – Tom Elliott and Arlene Foster (22 days before her resignation to join the DUP).

  • Alliance broke through the 1,000 vote barrier for the first time in 2017.

SINCE 2017

  • Colm Gildernew replaced his sister Michelle Gildernew as MLA following her election to Westminster in 2017.

  • Áine Murphy replaced Séan Lynch following his resignation in 2021.

  • Deborah Erskine replaced Arlene Foster following her resignation in 2021.

THE DAY OF THE COUNT

  • Despite a field of 12, the 2017 count only took four stages to complete, due to the electoral mathematics allowing the exclusion of five smaller candidates in the second round.

  • With 16 candidates on the ballot paper in May, the count will be a lot slower to complete.

  • The DUP polled 2.5 times the first preferences of the UUP in 2017.

  • Will Sinn Féin once again poll 2.5 quotas of first preference votes?

  • Watch for Alliance’s first preferences: they amassed 1,437 votes in the last Assembly election, and then nearly doubled that total with 2,650 in the 2019 Westminster poll.

COMMENTARY

Hotly contested at Westminster and Assembly elections, this most westerly constituency in Northern Ireland has always been symbolic for unionism and nationalism.

Following her resignation as DUP Leader, Arlene Foster left local politics and was replaced by Deborah Erskine who is standing alongside Paul Bell for the first time. Both candidates would be seen as sitting in the Foster ‘wing’ of the DUP. With around 30% of the vote in 2017, the DUP have a solid seat in the constituency, but it’s difficult to imagine the circumstances under which they could win back a second seat this May.

On the UUP side, incumbent MLA, Rosemary Barton is standing again alongside former MP and former leader Tom Elliott. There is a UUP seat in the constituency but which of these two wins it is hard to predict. If Barton lost and the party don’t pick up seats elsewhere, the UUP would be left without any female representation in the Assembly.

Sinn Féin did incredibly well winning three seats in 2017. Michelle Gildernew and Séan Lynch won’t be on the ballot this time, with Áine Murphy and Colm Gildernew seeking election to the Assembly in their own right this time alongside incumbent Jemma Dolan who is facing the electorate for the second time.

At the point the SDLP candidate was excluded in 2017, Richie McPhillips was only 62 votes behind Sinn Féin’s Séan Lynch. Fermanagh & South Tyrone is one of the SDLP’s top targets for a gain, with Adam Gannon running this May and hoping to benefit from strong transfers from Alliance (Matthew Beaumont) and the UUP.

PREDICTIONS

  • Two Sinn Féin, One DUP, One UUP.

  • Battle between SDLP and Sinn Féin for the final seat.

Brown O'Connor Communications Weekly Look Ahead: Week Commencing 25 April 2022

Forward Look                                

  • The Queen’s Speech is expected to include a Bill permitting Ministers to unilaterally override parts of the Protocol including border checks on GB-NI trade.

  • Sinn Féin is expected to launch its election manifesto on Monday. The SDLP will launch theirs on Tuesday.

  • UUP leader Doug Beattie says parties should negotiate a Programme for Government prior to agreeing to join an Executive after May’s election.

  • The DUP has announced it will introduce a devolved windfall tax on energy firms in an incoming Executive.

  • The Green Party’s election manifesto sets out policies including the establishment of an independent Environmental Protection Agency. To view: LINK

  • The Brexit Freedoms Bill is expected to be introduced in May and will include significant reform of procurement and data protection regulations.

  • The Department for the Economy has launched a public appointment competition to appoint a Chairperson of Tourism NI. To view: LINK

  • The Commons Library has published a rundown of the Queen’s Speech 2022 ahead of the State Opening of Parliament on 10 May. To view: LINK

  • Parliament has passed a motion asking the Commons Privileges Committee to launch an inquiry into whether Prime Minister Boris Johnson MP broke the Ministerial Code.

  • Northern Ireland Questions will take place in the Commons on Wednesday.

  • Levelling Up Under-Secretary Neil O’Brien MP will brief the NI Affairs Committee on Wednesday.

  • The CBI will host an audience with local political leaders on Thursday at Queen’s University. To view: LINK

  • The Londonderry Chamber will host a pre-election event with Foyle candidates at Ulster University Magee on Friday.

Other Stories this week

  • Prime Minister Boris Johnson MP apologised to MPs after being sanctioned for breaking Covid-19 rules.

  • Tourism bodies have warned that new cross-border travel rules in the Government’s Borders Bill could cost the industry up to £160m.

  • People Before Profit launched their election manifesto in Derry. Among the policies set out is the introduction of a £15-per-hour minimum wage.

  • Unions representing Translink employees have deferred strike action planned for next week.

Upcoming key political and business events

  • 28 April, CBI’s An Audience with Northern Ireland’s Political Leaders, The Great Hall Queen’s University

  • 28 April, Belfast Chamber’s Spring Networking Reception, Whites Garden

  • 29 April, Londonderry Chamber Pre-Election Event, Ulster University, Derry

  • 3 May, Manufacturing Month 22 Launch Breakfast, KPMG, The Soloist, Belfast

  • 5 May, Northern Ireland Assembly Election

  • 10 May, State Opening of Parliament

  • 12 May, Anchor High Summit, Manufacturing NI, Galgorm Hotel and Spa

  • 26 May, Belfast Telegraph Business Awards, Crowne Plaza Hotel, Belfast

  • 21 June, House of Commons rises for Summer Recess

  • 30 June, Irish News Workplace and Employment Awards, Titanic Belfast

Consultations

#AE22 Brown O'Connor NI Assembly Election Constituency Profile: Upper Bann

#AE22 Constituency Profile: Upper Bann

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

Upper Bann lies south of Lough Neagh and includes Lurgan, Portadown, Craigavon, Banbridge and Loughbrickland. It has the largest population and the largest registered electorate of the eighteen Assembly constituencies in Northern Ireland.

The Dickson Plan school transfer system operates in much of Upper Bann with post-primary school pupils attending Junior Highs before transferring to Senior High Schools without the use of the 11+/Transfer Test for academic selection.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

DUP vote went against the overall trend and increased by 1.7 percentage points between 2016 and 2017.

Sinn Féin saw their vote increase by 2.9 percentage points but still lost a seat in the new five seat configuration.

Alliance scored a record result at the 2019 Westminster election with 12.9% of the vote, doubling their best vote share in a previous Upper Bann Westminster or Assembly poll.

SDLP’s Dolores Kelly lost her seat to Sinn Féin at the 2016 election, regaining it 11 months later in the 2017 poll.

SINCE 2017

Diane Dodds replaced Carla Lockhart following her Westminster win in 2019.

THE DAY OF THE COUNT

Watch to see how the overall share of unionist and nationalist first preferences compares with 2017: 3.3 quotas amongst unionist parties gave them 3 seats, 2.3 quotas led to 2 seats.

Which designation will be hit hardest by any rise in votes for ‘other’ parties? (Alliance and Greens polled just over a third of a quota in 2017.)

COMMENTARY

Upper Bann is a fascinating contest this year with a three-cornered battle underway.

The DUP holds two seats in the constituency with both incumbent MLAs, Jonathan Buckley and Diane Dodds running for the party. Dodds was co-opted into the seat following her time as a Member of the European Parliament. She served as Economy Minister for 18 months before new DUP leader Edwin Poots replaced her with Paul Frew in June 2021. (24 days later, another change in DUP leadership ousted Frew in favour of Gordon Lyons.) Dodds has never before stood in Upper Bann, and this will be her first Assembly election contest since losing her Belfast West seat in 2007.

The UUP leader Doug Beattie is seeking to secure a third term in the Assembly and will have Glenn Barr running alongside him for the first time. Until 2017, the UUP held two seats in Upper Bann, but it is unlikely that they will regain the ground lost when Jo-Anne Dobson was not re-elected.

Likewise for Sinn Féin, incumbent John O’Dowd is standing again for the party with new running mate Liam Mackle, It is unlikely that two Sinn Féin candidates can get over the line in the five seat constituency. 

How the final two seats fall in Upper Bann is anything but certain.

If the opinion polls are right and there is a significant swing away from the DUP, the party’s second seat in Upper Bann could be vulnerable.

SDLP’s Dolores Kelly is defending a seat she won back in 2017. Kelly is a political veteran and attempting to hold the SDLP’s position in the face of the decline in party support since 1998. Kelly is on a slender margin and got across the line on Alliance and UUP transfers in 2017, a definite beneficiary of the ‘Vote Mike and you get Colum’ policy.

Kelly is under real pressure from the Alliance candidate, Eoin Tennyson, whose record result for the party in Upper Bann at the most recent Westminster poll – coming third with 12.9% of the vote – makes him a favourite to win a seat if that momentum can be consolidated.

PREDICTIONS

One DUP, One Sinn Féin, One UUP

Last two seats are a battle between DUP, Alliance and the SDLP.

#AE22 Brown O'Connor NI Assembly Election Constituency Profile: South Antrim

#AE22 Constituency Profile: South Antrim

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

  • The South Antrim constituency hugs the northern and eastern shores of Lough Neagh, taking in the urban populations of Antrim, Ballyclare, Carnmoney, Crumlin, Glenavy, Mallusk, Randalstown and Templepatrick. Belfast International Airport, Antrim Area Hospital and Randox are major employers within the constituency.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

  • DUP took just over a third of the first preference votes in 2017 which was only enough to see two of their three MLAs re-elected.

  • Pam Cameron is the only woman to be elected to the Assembly from South Antrim.

  • UUP nearly always take more than 20% of the first preference vote.

SINCE 2017

  • John Blair was co-opted to replace David Ford in 2018.

  • Trevor Clarke (who lost his seat in May 2017) was co-opted to replace Paul Girvan following his election to Westminster in June 2017.

THE DAY OF THE COUNT

  • The first candidate wasn’t elected until stage four in 2011. A small swing to Sinn Féin, not to mention just two DUP names on the ballot this time, could mean one or two candidates come in over the quota in the first stage of the count.

  • Given the proximity to the TUV leader’s constituency, can the TUV significantly push through their previous peak vote share of 3.8% in an Assembly election in South Antrim?

COMMENTARY

South Antrim is a strong unionist constituency with the pro-union parties taking well over 50% of the first preference vote in Assembly elections and winning a majority of the seats in recent elections.

The DUP have a solid two seats in the constituency. Until 2017, they held three seats, but with the reduction in size of the Assembly they lost out despite balancing their vote incredibly well. Incumbent MLAs, Pam Cameron and Trevor Clarke are standing again for the party.

The UUP are running former leader Steve Aiken alongside Councillor Paul Michael. On the current numbers, whilst this is one of the party’s better-performing constituencies – Danny Kinahan polled well over 12,000 votes in both the 2017 and 2019 General Elections – the UUP are only likely to win a single seat.

Junior Minister Declan Kearney is standing again for Sinn Féin in what is a relatively safe seat for the party. The SDLP will be running local councillor Roisin Lynch once again. The 2010 boundary changes and the drop to five seats make it a hard road to win back the seat the SDLP lost in 2011. But with Declan Kearney already elected, two thirds of Lynch’s transfers upon exclusion in stage seven of the count brought the Alliance candidate home in 2017.

Alliance are just running one candidate despite a solid share of the vote and being transfer friendly. John Blair is running for election for the first time at the Assembly level. This is a safe seat and Blair should have no issue returning to Stormont.

Watch out to see if the TUV’s Mel Lucas can make a strong showing and eat into the DUP’s share of the vote.

PREDICTIONS

  • No change: Two DUP, One UUP, One Alliance, One Sinn Féin.

#AE22 Brown O'Connor NI Assembly Election Constituency Profile: Belfast West

#AE22 Constituency Profile: Belfast West

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

  • Belfast West has the second smallest electorate (according to 1 April figures) and the fifth smallest population (according to the 2011 census results).

  • Two thirds of its area is urban, while the rural third takes in the Colin Glen Forest Park and the slopes heading up to Divis and Black Mountain.

  • Across the 18 constituencies, the 2011 Census reports that Belfast West has the highest population proportion brought up in a Catholic community background (80.1%) and the lowest proportion from a Protestant community background (16.7%).

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

  • Sinn Féin took 61.8% of the vote at the 2017 Assembly Election, their best share across the 18 constituencies.

  • People Before Profit’s support slumped, down 8 percentage points on their 2016 peak.

  • SDLP increased their vote by 1.3 percentage points but still lost their only MLA, Alex Attwood who had represented Belfast West since 1998.

  • DUP polled 10.1% of the vote in 2017.

SINCE 2017

  • Alex Maskey (Sinn Féin) is not seeking re-election. However, he will still be in the Speaker’s chair until a new one is elected as the first item of business after May’s election.

  • Aisling Reilly (Sinn Féin) replaced Fra McCann as MLA in October 2021.

THE DAY OF THE COUNT

  • Despite the presence of 12 candidates on the ballot, Belfast West was an exciting but compact four stage count in 2017. This year with 17 candidates, it will be slower to resolve the final seats.

  • Sinn Féin polled 3.7 quotas of first preference votes in 2017.

  • Unionist parties polled two thirds of a quota of first preferences with very little scope to attract transfers.

  • Watch the gap between the DUP and SDLP candidates over the first few stages of the count. In 2017, the SDLP couldn’t quite catch up before their candidate was excluded. If they poll better than the DUP in May, then it could be game on for Paul Doherty to be in the running for the final seat.

COMMENTARY

Belfast West is a Sinn Féin heartland that has returned four or more seats for the party at every election since 1998. Two of the party’s best known representatives are not going to be on the ballot this time. Alex Maskey (the Speaker of the Assembly) is standing down. Fra McCann stepped away last year. Councillor Danny Baker and Aisling Reilly will be on the ballot alongside incumbent MLAs Pat Sheehan and Órlaithí Flynn. In 2017, the party performed incredibly well achieving a 7.3 percentage point swing toward them. 

The second party in Belfast West is People Before Profit. Gerry Carroll topped the poll in 2016 with a breakthrough 1.6 quotas of first preference votes. On the back of this, the party ran two candidates in 2017, but a third of their vote share slipped away, picking up less than a quota of first preferences. This May, despite an uptick in the most recent Westminster poll, People Before Profit is playing it safe and running a single candidate (Gerry Carroll) in Belfast West. However, his transfers could be critical in deciding the final outcome.

Having been introduced at the 2019 General Election, Paul Doherty is running for the first time at the Assembly level trying to regain the SDLP seat that was lost in 2017. Doherty is running a high profile campaign and this is one of the party’s top targets.

The last seat in this constituency is always a battle, and up to three parties will be fighting for it.

Frank McCoubrey is contesting Belfast West for the DUP for the third time. The party have not held a seat in the constituency since 2007.

A win for Paul Doherty would need a mix of strong transfers from People Before Profit and to be ahead of the DUP candidate after the smaller candidates have been excluded. It’s a stretch, but could make Belfast West an exciting race to watch.

PREDICTIONS

  • Three Sinn Féin, One People Before Profit

  • Last seat is a battle between Sinn Féin and SDLP, with DUP as an outside chance.

Eversheds Sutherland announces Deborah Archer as Banking and Finance Partner

Deborah Archer, Banking and Finance Partner, Eversheds Sutherland; and Alan Connell, Managing Partner, Eversheds Sutherland Ireland.

Leading global law firm Eversheds Sutherland has appointed Deborah Archer as Banking and Finance Partner in its Belfast office.

Deborah brings over 20 years’ experience advising local and international financial institutions, industrial and provident societies, and corporate entities and individuals across various sectors, on all aspects of borrowing and lending. Deborah is dual qualified and can practice in Northern Ireland and England and Wales.  Deborah has previous experience in a number of local law firms including Tughans, Cleaver Fulton Rankin, and MKB Law, and comes to Eversheds Sutherland from PwC, where she was part of the NewLaw Belfast leadership team.

The senior appointment comes during a period of sustained growth and recent promotions for Eversheds Sutherland in Belfast and across the island of Ireland, with the appointment of a Banking and Finance Partner for the Belfast office evidencing the firm’s full-service strategy and dynamic recent growth to meet client demands. Based at Montgomery House in Belfast city centre, this latest appointment adds to the firm’s existing offer in Northern Ireland of sectors like employment and immigration, litigation and dispute resolution, and real estate and commercial property.

Speaking upon her appointment, Deborah Archer, Banking and Finance Partner, Eversheds Sutherland said:

“I am incredibly proud to be joining Eversheds Sutherland, as this is an exciting time to be heading up a new Banking and Finance division in Belfast. Northern Ireland is increasingly carving out a global reputation for financial services, fintech, international banking, and compliance and risk management. Coming out of the pandemic, there are serious opportunities to invest and expand in Northern Ireland.

“Eversheds Sutherland, as a firm, is well placed to assist local and international businesses with their growth, secure investment in Northern Ireland, and ultimately help drive economic development. Our message of being connected globally but committed locally is the driving force of the team and I am looking forward to tapping into the wider Eversheds Sutherland network to deliver for our clients and businesses throughout Northern Ireland.” 

Alan Connell, Managing Partner, Eversheds Sutherland Ireland, added:

“I am delighted to welcome Deborah to Eversheds Sutherland and to be expanding our full-service practice offering in Northern Ireland. Deborah’s experience speaks for itself, and she will be a significant addition to our leadership team across the island of Ireland. The trading environment, particularly as we emerge from the pandemic, is increasingly volatile and as such, businesses need clear, strong advice they can trust. Experienced legal leaders like Deborah are vital to the world-class offering provided by the entire team here at Eversheds Sutherland, and this appointment highlights the expertise, skill, and value we provide to not only meet, but to stay ahead of our clients’ needs.”

Brown O'Connor Communications Weekly Look Ahead: Week Commencing 18 April 2022

Forward Look                                

  • Alliance is expected to launch its Assembly Election manifesto on Wednesday at the CIYMS in East Belfast, while the SDLP is expected to launch its health manifesto next week.

  • MPs will vote on Tuesday to decide if an investigation should be launched to find if the Prime Minister misled the House of Commons over the extent of lockdown parties in Downing Street.

  • The Privy Council has ordered that Parliament should not be prorogued no earlier than the 28 April and no later than the 4 May ahead of its State opening on 10 May.

  • A by-election will be in the coming weeks after Imran Ahmad Khan resigned as the MP for Wakefield.

  • The Irish Government published its updated Trade and Investment Strategy which sets out how Ireland will grow sustainably ahead of 2026. The strategy, along with its seven top actions, can be viewed here: LINK

  • Ahead of the Assembly election, UTV will hold a leaders debate on 1 May. The BBC will host a debate on 3 May.

  • The Irish Cabinet has signed off a proposal to increase the number of TDs in the Dáil by between nine and nineteen. A final decision will made after the completion of the 2022 census.

  • Queen’s University Belfast is to host a two-day event next year to mark the 25 Anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement.

  • Belfast Chamber of Commerce Business Awards will take place on 21 October at the Crowne Plaza Hotel, Belfast. More information can be found here: LINK

  • Chris Mason will replace Laura Kuenssberg as the political editor of BBC News next month.

  • The Northern Ireland Affairs Committee will meet on Wednesday to receive briefings on how the Governments Borders Bill could impact North-South tourism.

  • Manufacturing Month, which showcases the potential and enhances the excellence of Northern Ireland’s manufacturing sector will return in May.

Other Stories this week

  • DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson MP launched the first point of its five-point plan for Northern Ireland. It focuses on the party’s commitments to fix the NHS. To view, click here: LINK

  • The Alliance Party outlined its environmental policies ahead of the Assembly election on 5 May. Policies include the establishment of an independent Environmental Protection Agency.

  • The SDLP launched its election campaign in West Belfast on Monday.

  • Former South Down MLA Jim Wells resigned from the DUP after endorsing South Down TUV candidate Harold McKee.

  • Organisations from the public and private sector launched ‘Renewed Ambition’ to showcase Belfast’s proposition to the real estate investment community. More information can be viewed here: LINK

  • The Department for the Economy published the analysis of the Northern Ireland High Street Scheme which found that 62% of transactions were made in businesses that were closed by regulations in 2020. The full report can be found here: LINK

  • A report by the Irish National Economic and Social Council found that there is support for an all-island approach to economic, social, and environmental challenges. The report can be viewed here: LINK

Upcoming key political and business events

  • 28 April, CBI’s An Audience with Northern Ireland’s Political Leaders, The Great Hall Queen’s University

  • 28 April, Belfast Chamber’s Spring Networking Reception, Whites Garden

  • 29 April, Londonderry Chamber Pre-Election Hustings, Ulster University, Derry

  • 3 May, Manufacturing Month 22 Launch Breakfast, KPMG, The Soloist, Belfast

  • 5 May, Northern Ireland Assembly Election

  • 10 May, State Opening of Parliament

  • 12 May, Anchor High Summit, Manufacturing NI, Galgorm Hotel and Spa

  • 26 May, Belfast Telegraph Business Awards, Crowne Plaza Hotel, Belfast

  • 21 June, House of Commons rises for Summer Recess

  • 30 June, Irish News Workplace and Employment Awards, Titanic Belfast

Consultations

#AE22 Brown O'Connor NI Assembly Constituency Profile: Mid Ulster

#AE22 Constituency Profile: Mid Ulster

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

  • Mid Ulster is a large and very rural constituency with the Sperrin mountains on one side, the western shore of Lough Neagh on the other, and flat peatlands in-between. It includes the towns of Magherafelt, Maghera, Cookstown and Coalisland.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

  • Sinn Féin achieved a record result in 2017 with 52.8% of the vote.

  • DUP vote share dipped after the 2007 Assembly election but recovered to 19.3% in 2017.

  • The UUP’s vote fell in 2017, and in the switch from six to five seat constituencies – with just 9.1% of the vote – Sandra Overend couldn’t catch up with Patsy McGlone, and the second unionist seat was lost.

  • Second highest turnout in Northern Ireland in 2017 election.

SINCE 2017

  • Sinn Féin’s Ian Milne stepped down from the Assembly at the end of 2018 to prepare to return to local government as a councillor and was replaced by Emma Sheerin.

  • UUP have a new candidate, Meta Graham, trying to re-take a seat for the party.

  • Alliance were just shy of 8% vote share in the 2019 Westminster election, tripling previous recent results.

THE DAY OF THE COUNT

  • Likely to one of the fastest counts again this May, though an upturn in Alliance and TUV first preferences could add an extra stage or two to the process if multiple exclusions are not possible.

  • Whilst seat shifts are not expected, this is a constituency to keep an eye on for vote share. In 2017, Sinn Féin attracted just over three quotas of first preference votes, and the DUP’s candidate polled well over a quota.

COMMENTARY

This is a Sinn Féin heartland constituency that has been home to two deputy First Ministers, Martin McGuinness and Michelle O’Neill. The party has always polled above 40% of first preference votes in this constituency and in recent elections has been consistently north of 45% giving the party a solid three seats.

Michelle O’Neill leads the ticket in May for the second time as the vice president of the party. Linda Dillon is seeking a third term as an MLA and Emma Sheerin is standing for the first time seeking a mandate in her own right after being co-opted in December 2018. Of the eight constituencies in which Sinn Fein holds multiple seats, this is probably the safest and most likely to return all their candidates.

Patsy McGlone is seeking his sixth term as an MLA for the area. While the SDLP’s vote share in Mid Ulster has been slowly shrinking (while Sinn Féin’s is growing) the sitting deputy Speaker of the Assembly is defending a relatively safe seat for the party. In 2017, some expected this seat to be a fight between the SDLP and the UUP, but McGlone’s margin was over 650 votes in the final stage with Sinn Féin surpluses undistributed and still in reserve.

The DUP’s Keith Buchanan currently holds the only Unionist seat in the constituency. Despite the fortunes of party colleagues in other constituencies, his personal vote increased by over 2,000 votes in 2017. The party have regularly polled above 15% of the vote in recent elections and have a comfortable margin in Mid Ulster. 

Alliance’s Claire Hackett will be anxious to find out if her party colleague’s success at the 2019 Westminster poll can be repeated.

PREDICTIONS

  • Three Sinn Féin, One DUP, One SDLP