#AE22 Constituency Profile: Fermanagh and South Tyrone
ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY
Fermanagh and South Tyrone is geographically the largest of the eighteen constituencies. It has just 31 registered voters per square kilometre, a fiftieth of the eligible voter density of Belfast South (1630 voters/sq km).
PREVIOUS ELECTIONS
Sinn Féin had a really strong result in 2017 with 42.1% of the vote. They won back the third seat they had lost to the SDLP in 2016 despite the switch from six to five seat constituencies, and despite the SDLP vote share increasing by 1.4 percentage points.
DUP lost their second seat here in 2017 (party chair Lord Morrow) suffering a 2.8 percentage point swing against them.
The UUP last held two seats in Fermanagh & South Tyrone back in 2003 – Tom Elliott and Arlene Foster (22 days before her resignation to join the DUP).
Alliance broke through the 1,000 vote barrier for the first time in 2017.
SINCE 2017
Colm Gildernew replaced his sister Michelle Gildernew as MLA following her election to Westminster in 2017.
Áine Murphy replaced Séan Lynch following his resignation in 2021.
Deborah Erskine replaced Arlene Foster following her resignation in 2021.
THE DAY OF THE COUNT
Despite a field of 12, the 2017 count only took four stages to complete, due to the electoral mathematics allowing the exclusion of five smaller candidates in the second round.
With 16 candidates on the ballot paper in May, the count will be a lot slower to complete.
The DUP polled 2.5 times the first preferences of the UUP in 2017.
Will Sinn Féin once again poll 2.5 quotas of first preference votes?
Watch for Alliance’s first preferences: they amassed 1,437 votes in the last Assembly election, and then nearly doubled that total with 2,650 in the 2019 Westminster poll.
COMMENTARY
Hotly contested at Westminster and Assembly elections, this most westerly constituency in Northern Ireland has always been symbolic for unionism and nationalism.
Following her resignation as DUP Leader, Arlene Foster left local politics and was replaced by Deborah Erskine who is standing alongside Paul Bell for the first time. Both candidates would be seen as sitting in the Foster ‘wing’ of the DUP. With around 30% of the vote in 2017, the DUP have a solid seat in the constituency, but it’s difficult to imagine the circumstances under which they could win back a second seat this May.
On the UUP side, incumbent MLA, Rosemary Barton is standing again alongside former MP and former leader Tom Elliott. There is a UUP seat in the constituency but which of these two wins it is hard to predict. If Barton lost and the party don’t pick up seats elsewhere, the UUP would be left without any female representation in the Assembly.
Sinn Féin did incredibly well winning three seats in 2017. Michelle Gildernew and Séan Lynch won’t be on the ballot this time, with Áine Murphy and Colm Gildernew seeking election to the Assembly in their own right this time alongside incumbent Jemma Dolan who is facing the electorate for the second time.
At the point the SDLP candidate was excluded in 2017, Richie McPhillips was only 62 votes behind Sinn Féin’s Séan Lynch. Fermanagh & South Tyrone is one of the SDLP’s top targets for a gain, with Adam Gannon running this May and hoping to benefit from strong transfers from Alliance (Matthew Beaumont) and the UUP.
PREDICTIONS
Two Sinn Féin, One DUP, One UUP.
Battle between SDLP and Sinn Féin for the final seat.