#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: Belfast North

#GE24 Constituency Profile: Belfast North

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies means that four formerly split wards are now fully aligned within Belfast North, and five split wards have been lost to neighbouring Belfast West (Shankill, Woodvale) and South Antrim (Burnthill, Carnmoney, Fairview) constituencies. An initial proposal to move the rest of Abbey ward into East Antrim was dropped in light of how the railway track splits the ward and blocks access from one side to the other. Overall the electorate has decreased by around 950 voters. The boundary changes are likely to result in a slight drop in unionist voters and a small gain in those voting for nationalist parties and others.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

Back in 1997, the UUP’s Cecil Walker had a majority of 13,024 in Belfast North. The DUP’s Nigel Dodds maintained the seat at Westminster elections from 2011 with smaller majorities until Sinn Fein’s John Finucane won with a majority of 1,943 in 2019. While the macro level story is one of nationalism gradually growing as unionism shrinks, there has been an even more pronounced change within nationalism. The SDLP polled between 20-21% at the turn of the century and dropped at every general election to end up with just 4.5% of the vote when the party last stood for Westminster in 2017.

 2019 RESULTS

 John Finucane (Sinn Féin) won with a vote share of 47.1% and a majority of 1,943 over the DUP’s Nigel Dodds.

COMMENTARY

North Belfast was one of the most watched races in 2017 and 2019. John Finucane is running for a second term under the Sinn Féin banner. This was the party’s only gain in 2019, and Finucane will be keen to capitalise on strong results in the 2022 Assembly and 2023 local elections. The Sinn Féin candidate benefits from the boundary changes, which see some Unionist-leaning parts of the constituency move into Belfast West. The mix of strong results since 2019, boundary changes and incumbency all bodes well for John Finucane. 

Philip Brett polled strongly in the 2022 Assembly election and is regarded as the new face of the DUP in the area and is taking on the mantle from Nigel Dodds in this Westminster election. Boundary changes make it difficult for him to win back the seat, as areas like Shankill and Woodvale that would have been strong for his predecessor are no longer part of the constituency. Another challenge will be the unionist votes that leak to the TUV who are running a candidate – Mid & East Antrim Councillor David Clarke who quit the DUP in January – for the first time at a Westminster election. Indeed this is the first time since 2010 that more than one pro-union party has stood in the constituency. 

Alliance’s Nuala McAllister is running again. A high-profile Assembly gain for her party in 2022, McAllister will seek to cement that success. The Greens will return to the ballot paper after standing aside in 2019, with party leader Senator Mal O’Hara running who lost his Belfast City Council seat in May 2023. Councillor Carl Whyte will be on the ballot for the SDLP. Both parties will be looking to make up ground lost over the longer term in Belfast North. 

All three candidates on the 2019 ballot kept their deposit. That’s unlikely to be the case for every candidate in 2024!

(Published before the candidate nominations closed on 7 June.)

PREDICTION

Sinn Féin hold. 

#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: Belfast South and Mid Down

#GE24 Constituency Profile: Belfast South and Mid Down

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

Belfast South is the only constituency to change name as part of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies, acknowledging the significant geographic extension. The constituency has expanded geographically and now takes in the Belvoir, Blackstaff, Carryduff East, Central and Knockbracken wards, as well as Drumbo (formerly Lagan Valley), Moneyreagh and Saintfield (both transferring in from South Down). The split wards of Cregagh, Hillfoot, Merok and Woodstock transferred out into Belfast East, and the Falls ward now fully lies within Belfast West. Overall the electorate has increased by around 1,850 voters. The boundary changes are likely to bring in extra votes for unionists and others with a loss of nationalist voters.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

Rev Martin Smyth (UUP) held the seat after winning the by-election caused by the murder of Robert Bradford. When Smyth retired, the SDLP’s Alasdair McDonnell won in 2005 against a split unionist vote and retained the seat until the DUP’s breakthrough in 2017 with Emma Little-Pengelly and the party’s base Belfast South performance to date.

This constituency is often competitive between three or four parties. Alasdair McDonnell won in 2015 with a mere 24.5% of the vote, the smallest winning vote share anywhere in the UK. Running against a smaller field with Greens and Sinn Féin standing aside, Claire Hanna recaptured the seat for the SDLP with a massive 57.2% of the vote in 2019. The Alliance vote dropped by 4 percentage points, the only constituency to see a swing away from Alliance at the last general election.

2019 RESULTS

Claire Hanna (SDLP) won with a vote share of 57.2% and a majority of 15,401 over the DUP’s Emma Little-Pengelly.

COMMENTARY

Claire Hanna is running for a second term in this constituency. Having hoped to capitalise on their 2019 general election success, the party had a disappointing 2022 Assembly result in South Belfast, only getting one candidate elected. In this year’s general election, the incumbent SDLP candidate will benefit from the fact that Sinn Féin are once again choosing not to run in the Westminster poll. Former Green Party leader and Belfast South MLA Clare Bailey has personally endorsed Hanna for a second term. The benefit of incumbency plus the lack of competition on the nationalist side of the political aisle is very good news for Claire Hanna and makes her the clear favourite.

The Greens have reversed course from 2019 when they didn’t stand a candidate. They are seeking to regain ground lost in the 2022 Assembly election, running the outgoing Deputy Lord Mayor Ainé Groogan. This will make a small dent in the majority Claire Hanna received in 2019 (which was the second highest in NI after her party leader Colum Eastwood’s performance in Foyle).

Another high profile challenge will come from the Alliance Party and first term MLA and former Lord Mayor Kate Nicholl. Nicholl was a high profile Assembly gain for the party in 2022. While her party performed poorly in 2019 in South Belfast, they will be hoping changes in the boundaries and the momentum from 2022 will lift the party’s vote in the constituency.

The DUP, which held this seat from 2017 to 2019 are running Councillor Tracy Kelly. Well known in her council district, this is her first constituency-wide battle. She faces minor competition on the unionist side of the political aisle from the UUP’s Michael Henderson (who lost his deposit in 2017 and 2019). The TUV are running a former DUP staffer, Dr Dan Boucher.

(Published before the candidate nominations closed on 7 June.)

PREDICTION

Claire Hanna to be re-elected.

#GE24 Brown O'Connor General Election Constituency Profile: Strangford

#GE24 Constituency Profile: Strangford

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

The result of the 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies has led to a reconfiguration of the border between Strangford and South Down and the overall electorate has increased by over 3,500 voters. An initial proposal to move most of Downpatrick up into Strangford was dropped. The proposal to move Ballynahinch and Kilmore into South Down was also reversed. However, the Drumaness moves into Strangford. Most of the Strangford ward (which includes Strangford town, Castleward and Bishops Court) is now back in South Down having formerly been in South Down. And the Quoile ward is now split between the two constituencies. 

Moneyreagh and Saintfield were lost to Belfast South. Crossgar and Killyleagh, Derryboy and Glen now fully lie within Strangford. However, some other formerly split wards have been aligned to neighbouring constituencies: Knockbracken and Carryduff East to Belfast South, Ballygrainey to North Down, Ballyward to South Down.

Overall there is likely to be a pronounced drop in unionist voters, a slight dip in others, and a big boost of support for nationalism. While the change in voter base won’t be so noticeable at Westminster, the shake-up is likely to make nationalism competitive for a seat at the next Assembly election. 

 PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

For decades, Strangford’s General Election count has been a fight between the largest two parties in unionism. That changed in 2017 when Alliance (14.7%) beat the UUP (11.4%) to second place, with Kellie Armstrong nearly doubling her vote share in 2019 (28.4%). 

COMMENTARY

Strangford has been a safe seat for the DUP since it flipped from the UUP in 2001. Jim Shannon took over the seat from Iris Robinson following her resignation in 2010 and has held the seat with comfortable majorities ever since. In recent elections, this has become a seat with big swings. In 2017 there was a big swing to the DUP. Two years later and there was a big swing away from them, the second largest swing away from the DUP (14.8 percentage points) in any constituency. (Lagan Valley saw a 16.4 percentage point drop in DUP support.) The party will be confident that they can retain this seat. Still, it will also be mindful that the boundary changes will put pressure on the combined unionist vote, whose share has fallen at every election since 2001.

Councillor Michelle Guy is running for Alliance at Westminster for the first time. Alliance scored a big swing in 2019 with Kellie Armstrong. Since then they’ve gained an Assembly seat in 2022 with Nick Mathison. Guy will hope that voters transferred in from South Down will help her take more ground for Alliance in Strangford.

The UUP is running Councillor Richard Smart. The UUP once dominated this constituency with John Taylor holding the seat from the constituency's inception in 1983 until he retired from Westminster in 2001. Since then its vote has collapsed by three quarters, polling just 10.7% at the last general election.

The TUV are running their deputy leader and Belfast City Councillor, Ron McDowell. Party colleague Stephen Cooper came close to winning the final Assembly seat in 2022 – he fell short due to a lack of transfers – and the TUV strength in the area together with any NI-wide swing away from the DUP will shrink Jim Shannon’s majority.

Will Polland is the SDLP’s candidate. Strangford was a disappointment for the party in 2022, where they had high hopes for an Assembly gain. Boundary changes bring into play a nationalist seat, and this July poll will be an opportunity to prepare the ground for a serious challenge at the next Assembly Election due in 2027. Sinn Féin will also be running a candidate.

(Published before the candidate nominations closed on 7 June.)

PREDICTION

DUP hold.

Baker Tilly Mooney Moore: We must unearth hidden talent to address concerning economic inactivity rates

Writes Karen Corry, Senior HR Consultant at Baker Tilly Mooney Moore. Article first published in the Irish News, Tuesday 28 May

Karen Corry, Senior HR Consultant, Baker Tilly Mooney Moore

The latest release of labour market statistics released by the Office for National Statistics highlights a concerning trend: the UK’s total economic inactivity rate lies at 22.1%, the highest it has been since September 2015. Conversely, Northern Ireland’s rate stands at its lowest since February 2020, but is still much higher than the UK rate at 26.6%.

The gender gap in economic activity is a pronounced one, in both Northern Ireland and Great Britain. The male inactivity rates stand at 18.7% and 22.9% in Britain and Northern Ireland respectively, while the inactivity rates among women stand at 25.2% and 30.1% respectively.

Increasing inactivity rates in the UK and Northern Ireland’s long-standing highlight the need for an innovative approach to recruitment by employers. As a means of unearthing the hidden talent with these statistics, employers have been redefining flexibility by offering remote work, part-time schedules, and adaptable hours. This approach not only attracts candidates balancing caregiving duties, but also accommodates people with disabilities, neurodivergent individuals, older workers, stay-at-home parents, long-term unemployed, and those seeking a better work-life balance.

Still, more can be done: by partnering with community organisations, conducting targeted outreach at job fairs, and leveraging online platforms designed for underrepresented groups, employers can unlock access to previously undiscovered talent pools and lead to the discovery of individuals with valuable skills and expertise, even among those not actively seeking employment.

Crafting inclusive job descriptions is another critical component of this paradigm shift. By removing language or requirements that inadvertently exclude certain groups, employers can signal their commitment to attracting a broader range of candidates with varied backgrounds and perspectives. Skill-based hiring is also gaining popularity, with organisations prioritising skills and competencies over degrees or titles allowing them to find candidates with valuable experience. This has been seen through some companies dropping minimum degree classification requirements or dropping degree requirements altogether. Investing in internal training and development programs is not just about upskilling—it's about unlocking real potential.

Diversity and inclusion initiatives are also foundational to supportive workplace cultures, ensuring all employees feel valued and supported. Providing accessible facilities and flexible interview formats is essential, not just legally but morally imperative, in uncovering hidden talents.

The traditional recruitment model is evolving as organisations shift towards a new skill based operating model that places skills as the central focus rather than specific qualifications and job titles. This transformation goes beyond mere position fulfilment; it aims to leverage diverse perspectives and talents to fuel innovation, nurture creativity, and propel organisational success in the future.

The General Election 2024 Timetable - 10 things you need to know

Dissolution of Parliament - Thursday 30 May (25 Days before Poll)

Receipt of writ (taken as the day following the dissolution of Parliament) – Friday 31 May (24 Days before Poll)

Publication of notice of election- Tuesday 4 June (4pm)  - Not later than 22 days (4pm)

Deadline for delivery of nomination papers - Until Friday 7 June (4pm)

Deadline for the notification of appointment of election agent - Until Friday 7 June (4pm)

Publication of statement of persons nominated - Friday 7 June (5pm)

Deadline for receiving applications for registration - Tuesday 18 June

Deadline for receiving new postal vote and postal proxy applications - Wednesday 19 June (5pm)

Deadline for notification of appointment of polling and counting agents  - Thursday 27 June

Polling day - 7am to 10pm Thursday 4 July 2024

DOCS IRELAND 2024 PROGRAMME UNVEILED AT BELFAST LAUNCH

A feast of screenings including new Blur documentary and Palestinian Closing Film

DOCS IRELAND 2024 has unveiled a feast of non-fiction film screenings and events in its festival programme which launches in Belfast today.

A wide range of topics including feminism, colonialism, music and health will be explored in documentaries showing as part of the festival from 18th to 23rd June.

Docs Ireland 2024 opens on 18th June with the award-winning documentary THE FLATS directed by Alessandra Celesia. Closing this year’s festival is the extraordinary documentary NO OTHER LAND made by a collective of activists as a form of resistance to the ongoing injustices in their region. It follows Palestinian activist Basel Adra resisting the forced displacement of his people in Masafer Yatta in the West Bank.

Cast of The Flats L-R Jolene Burns, Sean Parker, Joe McNally, Rita Overend

Alongside the In Conversation with this year’s special guest ASIF KAPADIA, Docs Ireland boasts a stellar programme of Special Events.  On the night of the solstice (21st June), WOMEN FOLK will be a beguiling and magical evening, celebrating the often overlooked contribution of women in traditional Irish music. With live singing from Róis, Catriona Gribben and Stephanie Makem, great-granddaughter of Sarah Makem renowned traditional source singer and subject of David Hammond’s film, which will feature at the event in Rosemary St Church.

Docs Ireland will honour the work and life of pioneering broadcaster, documentary filmmaker and musician, David Hammond with an award for Outstanding Contribution to Irish Documentary and showcase some of his most iconic documentary shorts including DUSTY BLUEBELLS  and THE MAGIC FIDDLE.

Throughout the festival, audiences will have an opportunity to hear directly from filmmakers and participants. Roisin Agnew’s THE BAN explores the practice of dubbing the voices of IRA leaders on news broadcasts during the Troubles followed by a panel discussion with key participants in the film  A discussion will follow THE BLACK AND THE GREEN from prolific documentarian St. Clair Bourne who followed five black civil rights activists on a fact-finding trip to Belfast in the 1980s.

Docs Ireland brings you to the Third Dimension with two screenings of classic documentaries for the first time in 3D in Ireland. Experience unexplored caves in Werner Herzog’s THE CAVE OF FORGOTTEN DREAMS and become part of an unforgettable performance with Wim Wenders’ PINA.

Shellshock Music documentaries return this year with the Irish premiere of Toby L’s brand new documentary BLUR: TO THE END,  the Irish premiere of MOGWAI: IF THE STARS HAD SOUND and GAMA BOMB: SURVIVAL OF THE FASTEST about Northern Irish thrash metal band Gama Bomb.

Docs Ireland’s strongest gaze falls on Irish film and this is exemplified in the annual Pull Focus competition which celebrates excellence in Irish documentary. This year’s stellar lineup includes Alan Gilsenan’s IFTA winning THE DAYS OF TREES, ONE NIGHT ON MILLSTREET (dir Andrew Gallimore) which captures the Celtic Tiger through a historic boxing match, an artist explores his feelings of grief about his mother’s Alzheimer’s diagnosis in DON’T FORGET TO REMEMBER directed by Ross Killeen, and BURKITT by filmmaker Éanna Mac Cana explores his personal experience of Burkitt’s Lymphoma and the life and work of Irish surgeon Dr Denis Burkitt. Filmmaker Leo Regan draws on years of footage and material to convey the complex life of his good friend Lanre Fehintola in MY FRIEND LANRE, an essay film by Katherine Waugh and Fergus Daly,  I SEE A DARKNESS explores the historical relationship between photography, cinema and science, in Neasa Ni Chianáin’s THE ALEXANDER COMPLEX the bizarre tale of a group of ‘gentlemanly explorers” is unravelled and a historic fraud case collides with immediate mortality in Colm Quinn’s RANSOM 79.  

Docs Ireland is at the forefront of International documentary presenting some of the best from across the globe. This year's diverse line-up has everything from a direct challenge to India’s Caste system in THE WORLD IS FAMILY, to uncovering family secrets in THE TASTE OF MANGO, to an exploration of one of the great character actors in REMEMBERING GENE WILDER.

The Maysles Brothers Competition for Observational Documentary rewards the best in observational non-fiction filmmaking from all over the world. UNION follows the Amazon Labour Union as they take on one of the biggest corporations in the world, the day-to-day life of a floating asylum is explored in ON THE ADAMANT,  Bhutanese documentary AGENTS OF HAPPINESS gives an intimate insight into the daily lives of communities in the Himalayas through the eyes of two ‘happiness agents’. With unprecedented access HOLLYWOODGATE follows the Taliban in the immediate aftermath of the US’ pullout from Afghanistan and FLYING HANDS examines the stigma of disability in a mountain region of Pakistan.

This year’s festival has thrown a spotlight on two countries where documentary excellence is often overlooked on the international stage and is truly at its most urgent. As previously announced, the Focus on Palestine features films, seminars and discussions which are all fundraisers for Medical Aid Palestine. The Focus on Finland brings three world class documentaries directed by women to the forefront; a modern fairytale ONCE UPON A TIME IN A FOREST directed by Virpi Suutari, MÁHCCAN/HOMECOMING follows Sámi director Suvi West as she reflects on the collective pain of the Sámi people’s stolen heritage and Finnish Focus wouldn’t be complete without master documentarian Pirjo Honkasalo’s MELANCHOLIAN 3 HUONETTA/THREE ROOMS OF MELANCHOLIA, a searing examination of the unrelenting Chechen conflict.

Continually pushing the boundaries of the genre The Zone takes documentary to its limits with a lecture from filmmaker Simon Aeppli, OPERATION BOGEYMAN: THE FOLK HORROR LANDSCAPE OF 1970S IRELAND, HOME INVASION is an existential musing on the history of the doorbell, MAN RAY: RETURN TO REASON the early films of Man Ray with a new soundtrack from Jim Jarmusch and a showcase of moving image art selected by Irish artists collective aemi BACK TRANSLATION.

Blur: To The End

Docs Ireland’s commitment to community work and development of the future of documentary in Ireland is exemplified in its Fieldwork strand. With showcases from both Queen’s University Belfast and Ulster University, an exploration of Super 8 film with Brian Henry Martin, a project on Contemporary collecting in Northern Ireland and two brand new Irish language documentaries from TG4.

The festival prides itself in showcasing some of the best new short films in Ireland. This year is no different with four Irish short programmes with films that range from real time observation of the burning of a refugee camp in Ireland to an intimate portrait of man’s tender care of his pigeons to a midwife’s journey into the Peruvian jungle and much more.  

Docs Ireland’s world class Industry programme returns with its fifth Marketplace. Taking place over two days, it provides an opportunity for filmmakers to meet one-to-one with leading international documentary industry players, including international funders, broadcasters, distributors and exhibitors. The programme is packed with opportunities for those working or aspiring to work in the documentary film industry to attend a wide range of panels, workshops, talks and networking opportunities.

Docs Ireland is supported by Northern Ireland Screen through the Department for Communities, Belfast City Council, Screen Ireland and BFI/Film Hub NI, and is proudly sponsored by TG4, BBCNI and Yellowmoon.

Michele Devlin, Docs Ireland Director, said:

“How great is it that we will be marking the summer solstice as part of Docs Ireland 6 when the earth has a maximum tilt towards the sun.  In this programme we bring to Belfast a ‘midsummer docs dream’ with over a hundred short form and feature documentary titles, special events and guests; marketplace and pitching; international industry delegates, workshops, masterclasses, music and networking. This programme is bursting with talent, creativity and business opportunities. Documentary is indeed in our DNA.  A huge thank you to all our funders and sponsors, our audiences and filmmakers, we look forward to seeing you all.”

Stuart Sloan, Docs Ireland Programmer, said:

“At this year’s Docs Ireland we are proud to bestow five prestigious awards. The Pull Focus Competition for Irish Documentary is awarded to the best new Irish Feature. Nine films are up for the award this year. The Maysles Brothers Award for observational cinema, now in its 18th year, is given to the best fly on the wall documentary - 7 films compete, including films from Palestine, France, Pakistan and Bhutan. Our eighth annual Irish Short Documentary Competition will also run - we have chosen the best new shorts from scores of applicants. All these awards will be chosen by international juries made up of filmmakers and industry experts, who will also attend Docs Ireland in person.

“Docs Ireland also will present two special awards to two special filmmakers. Oscar-winning documentarian Asif Kapadia will visit Belfast to discuss his career and collect the Outstanding Contribution to Documentary. Pioneering broadcaster, documentary filmmaker and musician, David Hammond, will be posthumously be awarded the Docs Ireland Outstanding Contribution to Irish Documentary at a unique event in the brand new Seamus Heaney Centre at Queen’s University.”

Róisin Geraghty, Docs Ireland Head of Industry, said:

“We are so proud to see the recognition and scope of Docs Ireland growing year on year, and are proud to present our most fulsome industry offering yet in 2024.”

The Pure Class Delegates Passes includes access to all film screenings (excluding opening, closing, In Conversation and fundraising events), industry and networking events and can be purchased at the Docs Ireland Website - £85 for Professionals and £55 for students. https://docsireland2024.eventive.org/passes/buy

Tickets for all Docs Ireland Festival screenings and events go on-sale on Thursday 16 May at 11am. Ticket prices are Pay What You Can (unless otherwise specified) ranging from £4.50 to £9.50 and can be purchased at the Docs Ireland website. https://docsireland.ie/programme/whats-on/

Private Members’ Bills Reform

Tara O’Neill takes a look at recent changes to Private Members’ Bills introduced by Speaker Edwin Poots MLA earlier this week in the Assembly.

What is a Members’ Bill?

Bills that are introduced by an individual MLA are known as a Private Member’s Bill. Private Members’ Bills offer backbenchers the chance to introduce legislation independently of the Executive departments.

Private Members’ Bills are a useful means of bringing about legislative change on issues that are of considerable interest to MLAs. These Bills require cross-community and cross-party support to succeed.

The demand for Private Members’ Bills has steadily increased over recent mandates. From January 2020 to March 2022, ten Private Member Bills (out of twenty that were introduced) completed the legislative process to become Acts. This marks a significant increase from the seven bills passed throughout the entire duration of the 2011-2016 mandate.

Reform of Members’ Bills

On Tuesday 7 May, Speaker Edwin Poots MLA published the arrangements for Members’ Bills for the current mandate, 2022-2027. The Speaker announced that submissions for Private Members’ Bills will open on May 13 until July 5.

A pivotal review of the Members’ Bill Process in March 2022 led to several recommendations from the Committee on Procedures, aimed at managing the volume of Bills. On Tuesday, the Speaker outlined key points of the review in his introduction of reforms to enhance Members’ Bills. These reforms aim to ensure that legislative proposals are well-developed, properly scrutinised, and well-balanced with Executive legislation.

• Extension of Public Consultation Period: The Speaker has extended the required public consultation period on Bills from eight to twelve weeks. An extended period of eight weeks is now provided for engagement between an MLA developing a Bill proposal and the relevant Minister.

• Retained Support and Allocated Resources: The Assembly Commission will continue to allocate appropriate resources to support Members' Bills. However, this support is contingent upon compliance with minimum procedural requirements and ensuring that proposed legislation is well-developed and of appropriate scope. Mr Poots highlighted that provision of resources cannot be a “blank cheque.”

• Narrow and Specific Policy Proposals: Members are encouraged to develop proposals for legislation that are narrow, specific, and confined to a scale suitable for a Member's Bill. This ensures that proposed legislation addresses specific issues effectively without overburdening the legislative process.

• Final Deadline for Introduction: A final deadline of the end of June of the penultimate session of the mandate (June 2026 in this case) has been set for the introduction of Members' Bills. This deadline provides clarity and ensures timely consideration of proposed legislation.

• Minimum Procedural Requirements: All Members' Bills, whether developed with Assembly support or drafted independently, must comply with minimum procedural requirements. This ensures consistency and transparency in the legislative process.

100 days of Stormont

Monday, May 13 will mark 100 days since the return of Northern Ireland’s political institutions in February. Odrán Waldron looks at the events that have defined the first 100 days on the hill.

With the SDLP opting for opposition, a position they had long since flagged, four parties – Sinn Féin, the DUP, the Alliance Party, and the UUP – formed the new Executive. There have been green shoots of hope since Michelle O’Neill was confirmed as the first Nationalist to be elected First Minister and Emma Little-Pengelly was confirmed as deputy First Minister. Taking to the home pitch of junior minister Aisling Reilly, St Paul’s GAC in west Belfast, the First and deputy First Minister partook in some camogie before a Q&A with the young camógs of St Paul’s. Dubbed the Sliotar Sisters, this event coupled with the visit of Education Minister Paul Givan to Gaelscoil Aodha Rua in Dungannon, served to allay any fears that the strained cross-community relations that characterised the end of the last Executive would repeat themselves in the early days of the new regime.

The early days also saw Minister for the Economy Conor Murphy beating a well-worn track around the province to promote his four economic priorities: the creation of good jobs; the promotion of regional balance; the improvement of productivity; and the reduction of carbon emissions. While Murphy has since had to temporarily step aside for health reasons, these four principles will guide the work of his party colleague and interim replacement, Deirdre Hargey.

Financial pressures have remained the biggest issue at hand since the resumption of the Executive and Assembly, which came on the heels of the largest public sector strikes ever seen in Northern Ireland. These pressures were seen to come to a head in April when Minister of Health Robin Swann voted against the Budget brought forward by Minister of Finance Caoimhe Archibald.

Despite the Department of Health being allocated £7.76 billion of the £14.5 billion budget, Swann, who is expected to be replaced as Minister of Health by party colleague Mike Nesbitt once campaigning for a general election begins, has warned of “incredibly serious consequences” without an additional £1 billion for his department. The First and deputy First Ministers were united in expressing regret about the situation, but Little-Pengelly stated that such funding for Health would “have consumed the entirety of what additional was available for the budget”. Given the Northern Ireland Fiscal Council’s warning in 2022 that health spending need could eventually account for 77% of current block grant totals, the impasse that we are currently seeing was perhaps inevitable without major overhauls to revenue raising.

Legislatively, it has been a slow start to proceedings, with just one bill – the Hospital Parking Charges Bill – having made its way past Final Stage thus far. The first 100 days have also not been without controversy: Alliance MLA Patrick Brown resigned his seat in April and was replaced by Andrew McMurray; and deputy speaker Steve Aiken will serve a suspension on the 100th day since Stormont’s return for breaching the confidentiality of the Assembly complaints process in November 2020.

The stability of the new Executive has been tested – not least by the removal of Jeffrey Donaldson as DUP leader following his arrest – and will likely be tested again with possible fallout from the Covid Inquiry and the Northern Ireland Fiscal Council due to publish its assessment of the budget on May 14. The budget is then expected to be put to an Assembly vote by the end of the month. With business confidence up and plans being laid for the tackling of the myriad problems facing the public sector, that stability will be needed long-term to deliver something that has long eluded this region: normality.

From the Great Resignation… to the Great Reshuffle

Writes Donal Laverty, Consulting Partner at Baker Tilly Mooney Moore. Article first published in the Irish News, Tuesday 30 April .

Donal Laverty, Consulting Partner at Baker Tilly Mooney Moore

Recent economic data suggests the UK is in mild recession, with weak activity starting to take its toll on the labour market.

Office of National Statistics stats for February 2024 released this week show that the unemployment rate has now reached 4.2%. The number of people employed fell more than expected and job vacancies decreased for the 21st consecutive period, highlighting that the once red hot labour market has cooled significantly.

Further challenges are arising through the increasing rate of inactivity in 16–64-year-olds, which now stands at 22.2%. A wide range of historic and current issues concerning young people such as access to education, training, and employment have coalesced to create a situation where employers cannot fill vacancies while high levels of young people are not engaged with the labour market.

During the pandemic and its immediate aftermath, we witnessed the Great Resignation, when huge numbers of employees were leaving the workforce, primarily for financial reasons as wage gains from changing jobs reached record levels by June 2022. However, workers are now quitting their jobs at the same rate as in the six months that preceded the pandemic and are now sticking with the same employer after well above average rates of job switching.

Wage gains are now slowing. Annual growth in regular earnings slowed from 6.1% in January 2024 to 6% in February 2024. This marks the slowest rate of wage growth since October 2022 and a significant fall from the 7.9% peak of July and August 2023.

Employers have reacted positively to the challenges of the recent talent wars. Work for many people has improved over the past two years. Many jobs are paying more, improving benefits, investing in employee wellbeing, and becoming more flexible, inclusive, and diverse.

Given the fluidity of the labour market, a new trend is emerging in workforce data – the death knell of Great Resignation has rung, and we are now in the Great Reshuffle. Employees have begun to shift away from some industries into more sought-after ones. Unskilled or semi-skilled workers are now moving from sectors into new sectors where benefits and wellbeing allow them to work from home. For example, we are seeing cashiers moving to call centre positions to work and enjoy the benefits of working from home.

The labour market continues to flex, both in response to prevailing economic conditions and driven by change as the traditional norms of work evolve into different ways of working, driven as they are by changed employee behaviours, skillsets, and availability.

A busy week of politics for the UK and its devolved nations

A busy week of politics for the UK and its devolved nations

This week has been a busy one for the UK and its devolved nations, with a surprising resignation in Scotland, the UK Covid-19 inquiry landing in Northern Ireland, and local elections taking in place in England and Wales.

Humza Yousaf resigns

The week kicked off with frenzy and speculation as Humza Yousaf joined the ever-growing list of 2024’s surprise resignations when he stepped down as leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP). He will consequently resign as Scottish First Minister in the coming weeks when a successor has been chosen by the party.

Yousaf’s downfall as First Minister seemed to come as quickly as the downfall of his party’s agreement with their ex-partners in Government, the Greens. There was little word of the impending conclusion of the Bute House Agreement before the First Minister abruptly dropped his partners in Government last Thursday. If the Greens had underestimated Yousaf’s willingness to unilaterally terminate the agreement, the First Minister certainly underestimated the ramifications of his decision to let them go. In a political system where consensus, communication, and collaboration are key, none were present when Yousaf pulled the plug on the almost three-year-long agreement. All trust between the former coalition partners was broken and it soon became clear that the First Minister would have difficulty staying in his job with parliament ready to vote him out in a series of votes of no confidence. In the end, Humza Yousaf jumped before he was pushed, telling reporters that he would not make unwanted deals with other parties just to cling onto power.

Now, all eyes turn to his successor. All speculation and talk throughout the week centred around two potential candidates: John Swinney and Kate Forbes. John Swinney, former deputy First Minister to Nicola Sturgeon, announced his campaign to become leader on Thursday, signalling his desire for Kate Forbes, who narrowly lost to Yousaf in last year’s leadership election, to play a “significant part” in his team. Forbes then endorsed Swinney for the leadership, renouncing her own ambitions to lead the party for the meantime. Whilst nominations remain open until next Monday, it is expected that Swinney will be made leader without the need for a contest. For a party that prides itself on its dissimilarity to the Conservatives, a third leader within 16 months will not help defy comparisons to the challenges seen within the Tory leadership in recent years.

UK Covid-19 Inquiry comes to Belfast

Tuesday brought the arrival of the UK Covid-19 inquiry to Northern Ireland, where it will be hearing evidence for the next three weeks. Evidence is being heard for module 2c of the inquiry, which focuses on the decision-making and political governance processes during the pandemic. It wasn’t long after the hearings started that significant scrutiny was levelled at the fledgling and divided nature of the recently reformed Northern Irish Executive.

On Tuesday, critical messages from Chief Medical Officer of Northern Ireland Sir Michael McBride were shown as evidence to the inquiry, condemning the Executive ministers for their handling of the pandemic. On Wednesday, it was revealed that Sir David Sterling, who was then head of the Northern Ireland Civil Service, wrote that ministers seemed to be keener on scoring political points off their opponents than helping the public. These revelations will be particularly shocking and pertinent seeing that many of the ministers in question still serve in the Executive today.

Controversy has also surrounded the deleting of messages between ministers and officials, as well as the alteration of meeting minutes, bringing into question the transparency of the Executive’s actions throughout 2020 and 2021. Stay tuned for more revelations and details of the Executive’s handling of the pandemic as the inquiry continues for the next fortnight. All eyes will turn to when senior politicians and members of the Executive of the time give evidence, including the likes of former First Minister Arlene Foster and then-deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill.

English and Welsh local and mayoral elections

Thursday brought with it a opportunity to vote for everyone registered in England and Wales. Elections took place in 107 local authorities across England as well as 11 directly elected mayoral contests, including London. A by-election was also held to select the new MP for Blackpool South, after former Conservative MP Scott Benton resigned a number of weeks ago because of a lobbying scandal.

Whilst turnout for these elections is consistently lower than at a general election, they will still prove to be an important bellwether for the upcoming Westminster vote if they confirm the poll averages between Conservative and Labour that have been seen throughout the last number of years.

Significant attention is being given to the two mayoral contests of Teesside and the West Midlands. Both are currently held comfortably by the Tories, and so any gains here by the Labour candidates would be seen as noteworthy. However, caveats should be applied to these contests as they are often decided on incumbent popularity. Potentially more informative therefore are the areas where mayoral elections are taking place for the first time, such as the new directly elected East Midlands mayor, where there is no incumbent.

Overnight into Friday came the declaration of the Blackpool South by-election, where Labour would have hoped to do well and pull off yet another by-election gain. They did just that, taking the seat on a staggering 26% swing away from the Conservatives, the second highest swing since the end of World War Two. The Tories only polled 17.5%, with Reform right behind on 16.9%, the highest vote share they have received at a by-election thus far. It will be important to keep an eye on the ramifications of such a result on Rishi Sunak’s leadership and the Conservative party more widely.

It’s clear that there will be a lot of results to digest for parties and election analysts alike with potentially far-reaching consequences leading into the next General election. However, the counting and reporting of these results won’t be completed until the end of the weekend, so this busy political week will last a little longer.