A busy week of politics for the UK and its devolved nations
This week has been a busy one for the UK and its devolved nations, with a surprising resignation in Scotland, the UK Covid-19 inquiry landing in Northern Ireland, and local elections taking in place in England and Wales.
Humza Yousaf resigns
The week kicked off with frenzy and speculation as Humza Yousaf joined the ever-growing list of 2024’s surprise resignations when he stepped down as leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP). He will consequently resign as Scottish First Minister in the coming weeks when a successor has been chosen by the party.
Yousaf’s downfall as First Minister seemed to come as quickly as the downfall of his party’s agreement with their ex-partners in Government, the Greens. There was little word of the impending conclusion of the Bute House Agreement before the First Minister abruptly dropped his partners in Government last Thursday. If the Greens had underestimated Yousaf’s willingness to unilaterally terminate the agreement, the First Minister certainly underestimated the ramifications of his decision to let them go. In a political system where consensus, communication, and collaboration are key, none were present when Yousaf pulled the plug on the almost three-year-long agreement. All trust between the former coalition partners was broken and it soon became clear that the First Minister would have difficulty staying in his job with parliament ready to vote him out in a series of votes of no confidence. In the end, Humza Yousaf jumped before he was pushed, telling reporters that he would not make unwanted deals with other parties just to cling onto power.
Now, all eyes turn to his successor. All speculation and talk throughout the week centred around two potential candidates: John Swinney and Kate Forbes. John Swinney, former deputy First Minister to Nicola Sturgeon, announced his campaign to become leader on Thursday, signalling his desire for Kate Forbes, who narrowly lost to Yousaf in last year’s leadership election, to play a “significant part” in his team. Forbes then endorsed Swinney for the leadership, renouncing her own ambitions to lead the party for the meantime. Whilst nominations remain open until next Monday, it is expected that Swinney will be made leader without the need for a contest. For a party that prides itself on its dissimilarity to the Conservatives, a third leader within 16 months will not help defy comparisons to the challenges seen within the Tory leadership in recent years.
UK Covid-19 Inquiry comes to Belfast
Tuesday brought the arrival of the UK Covid-19 inquiry to Northern Ireland, where it will be hearing evidence for the next three weeks. Evidence is being heard for module 2c of the inquiry, which focuses on the decision-making and political governance processes during the pandemic. It wasn’t long after the hearings started that significant scrutiny was levelled at the fledgling and divided nature of the recently reformed Northern Irish Executive.
On Tuesday, critical messages from Chief Medical Officer of Northern Ireland Sir Michael McBride were shown as evidence to the inquiry, condemning the Executive ministers for their handling of the pandemic. On Wednesday, it was revealed that Sir David Sterling, who was then head of the Northern Ireland Civil Service, wrote that ministers seemed to be keener on scoring political points off their opponents than helping the public. These revelations will be particularly shocking and pertinent seeing that many of the ministers in question still serve in the Executive today.
Controversy has also surrounded the deleting of messages between ministers and officials, as well as the alteration of meeting minutes, bringing into question the transparency of the Executive’s actions throughout 2020 and 2021. Stay tuned for more revelations and details of the Executive’s handling of the pandemic as the inquiry continues for the next fortnight. All eyes will turn to when senior politicians and members of the Executive of the time give evidence, including the likes of former First Minister Arlene Foster and then-deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill.
English and Welsh local and mayoral elections
Thursday brought with it a opportunity to vote for everyone registered in England and Wales. Elections took place in 107 local authorities across England as well as 11 directly elected mayoral contests, including London. A by-election was also held to select the new MP for Blackpool South, after former Conservative MP Scott Benton resigned a number of weeks ago because of a lobbying scandal.
Whilst turnout for these elections is consistently lower than at a general election, they will still prove to be an important bellwether for the upcoming Westminster vote if they confirm the poll averages between Conservative and Labour that have been seen throughout the last number of years.
Significant attention is being given to the two mayoral contests of Teesside and the West Midlands. Both are currently held comfortably by the Tories, and so any gains here by the Labour candidates would be seen as noteworthy. However, caveats should be applied to these contests as they are often decided on incumbent popularity. Potentially more informative therefore are the areas where mayoral elections are taking place for the first time, such as the new directly elected East Midlands mayor, where there is no incumbent.
Overnight into Friday came the declaration of the Blackpool South by-election, where Labour would have hoped to do well and pull off yet another by-election gain. They did just that, taking the seat on a staggering 26% swing away from the Conservatives, the second highest swing since the end of World War Two. The Tories only polled 17.5%, with Reform right behind on 16.9%, the highest vote share they have received at a by-election thus far. It will be important to keep an eye on the ramifications of such a result on Rishi Sunak’s leadership and the Conservative party more widely.
It’s clear that there will be a lot of results to digest for parties and election analysts alike with potentially far-reaching consequences leading into the next General election. However, the counting and reporting of these results won’t be completed until the end of the weekend, so this busy political week will last a little longer.