Brown O’Connor Communications Weekly Look Ahead: Week Commencing 9 May 2022

Forward Look                                

  • Counting for the Northern Ireland Assembly election began today at 8am, with results expected to be announced throughout today and tomorrow. At 9pm last night, the overall voter turnout was 55.5%. Modelling indicates the final figure will be lower than in 2017, which was 64.78%.

  • The new Assembly will sit early next week where members must sign in and elect a new Speaker. They will also be given the opportunity to elect a new First and deputy First Minister.

  • DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson said he will not enter the Stormont Executive until the Protocol has been resolved.

  • Northern Ireland Secretary of State Brandon Lewis MP said a proposed new law allowing the UK Government to waive elements of the Northern Ireland Protocol will not be in the Queen’s Speech on Tuesday.

  • Assistant Director at InterTradeIreland, Kerry Curran, will replace Aodhán Connolly as the Director of the Northern Ireland Retail Consortium on Monday.

  • The Department of Finance has launched a ‘Back in Business’ scheme, offering businesses a two-year 50% rate reduction if they move into premises previously used for retail.

  • A decision is set to be made today on whether investors will be involved in future plans for the George Best Hotel in Belfast City Centre.

  • The Republic’s former Education Minister and Fine Gael Donegal TD Joe McHugh announced he will not stand in the next Irish general election.

  • Research carried out by Grant Thornton and Belfast Chamber found that, at the current rate of development, Belfast risks falling short of its 2035 population target by 20,100.

  • 81.3% of NIPSA union members at the Northern Ireland Assembly have voted in favour of strike action. This will take place on Thursday.

  • A report published by the Standards Committee into All-Party Parliamentary Groups has suggested cutting down the 774 APPGs as they could be open to “improper access and influence”.

  • Manufacturing Month launched this week, with the Anchor High leadership summit taking place on Thursday.

 

Other Stories this week

  • Council elections took place across England, Scotland, and Wales on Thursday. Results are expected today.

  • A study by Queen’s University Belfast found that the Spend Local voucher scheme should have been targeted towards businesses which were forced to close.

  • Seven further DUP members left the party to give their support to South Down TUV candidate, Harold McKee before yesterday’s Assembly election.

  • The Bank of England has raised interest rates to 1% in response to the cost of living crisis.

  • Almac has received planning permission for its new £40 million manufacturing facility in Craigavon.

  • Public finances in Ireland were in deficit by €1.1 billion at the end of April.

 

Upcoming key political and business events

  • 10 May, State Opening of Parliament

  • 12 May, Anchor High Summit, Manufacturing NI, Galgorm Hotel and Spa

  • 24 May, Belfast Telegraph Top 100 Northern Ireland Companies 2021

  • 26 May, Belfast Telegraph Business Awards, Crowne Plaza Hotel, Belfast

  • 17 June, North West Business Awards, City Hotel

  • 21 June, House of Commons rises for Summer Recess

  • 24 June, NI Chamber’s Annual Lunch

  • 30 June, Irish News Workplace and Employment Awards, Titanic Belfast

  • 29 – 30 September, Centre for Cross Border Studies’ Annual Conference

  • 21 October, Belfast Chamber Business Awards, Crowne Plaza Hotel, Belfast

  • 4 – 5 November, Sinn Féin Ard Fheis

Consultations

New Executive vital to economic rebuild, says Manufacturing NI

(L-R) Tony Murray, Lockton Companies LLP; Laura Gillespie, Pinsent Masons; John Mathers, Barclays Bank; Stephen Kelly, Manufacturing NI; William Taylor, KPMG; and Mary Meehan, Manufacturing NI.

Manufacturing and business leaders from across Northern Ireland gathered this morning to officially kick off Manufacturing Month at a business breakfast in Belfast.

The event, hosted at KPMG’s offices at the Soloist Building in Belfast City Centre, was held to launch Manufacturing Month, an initiative to celebrate and cherish the local manufacturing and engineering sector in Northern Ireland.

First held in March 2020, Manufacturing Month will run through the entire month of May with a series of events, roundtables, factory tours, school visits, webinars, and the Anchor High leadership summit at the Galgorm. The Month is a chance to celebrate and highlight the innovation and ingenuity of Northern Ireland’s manufacturers, as well as cherishing the people who make the sector the leading industry that it is.

Panellists at this morning’s event focused on the manufacturing sector’s resilience during the Covid pandemic, the industry’s recovery and rebuild, how to manage challenges like labour shortages and the rising cost of doing business, and the importance of a new Executive being formed as soon as possible after Thursday’s Assembly Election.

The breakfast was held in partnership with Business Eye, chaired by editor Richard Buckley, with a panel including Mary Meehan, Deputy Chief Executive of Manufacturing NI, William Taylor, Strategy Director at KPMG, Laura Gillespie, Partner at Pinsent Masons, Tony Murray, Senior Vice President at Lockton Companies LLP, and John Mathers, Corporate Development Director at Barclays.

Manufacturing Month is sponsored by KPMG, Pinsent Masons, Invest NI, Lockton Companies LLP, Barclays, and supported by Northern Ireland’s six further education colleges.

(L-R) Stephen Kelly, Manufacturing NI; Mary Meehan, Manufacturing NI; William Taylor, KPMG; John Mathers, Barclays Bank; Laura Gillespie; and Tony Murray, Lockton Companies LLP.

Speaking at the breakfast, Manufacturing NI Chief Executive Stephen Kelly said:

“We’re thrilled to be launching Manufacturing Month once again. After the inaugural Manufacturing Month was cut short in March 2020 due to the arrival of Covid, this year is an opportunity to recognise the resilience of our makers over the past two years and highlight the skilled people, talented leaders, and world-class products that make our local sector the success story that it is.

“The Northern Ireland manufacturing sector has proven its resilience in recent times with the pandemic, Brexit, rapidly rising inflation, and supply chain difficulties. Despite these challenges, our manufacturers continue to bring in over £15bn for our local economy. Recent figures show that two thirds of firms here are growing again as we come out of the pandemic, a huge success and one to be proud of.

“Our companies provide secure and skilled jobs which support thousands of households across the country. Areas like Mid Ulster are world renowned clusters of manufacturing and employ thousands of skilled technicians and engineers. It’s crucial that following this week’s Assembly Election a fully functioning and committed Executive is formed, one which is focused wholly on recovering and rebuilding from the pandemic, creating new jobs, and securing investment which will transform our economy and our communities.

“Manufacturing Month is an exciting initiative which will shine a light on all that is good about our local industry, the people, the leaders, the products, and the innovation. The Month would not have been possible without the valued support of our sponsors, KPMG, Pinsent Masons, Lockton Companies LLP, Invest NI, and Barclays, and the support of the six local further education colleges. To have the backing of such prominent and leading organisations proves the strength of our local manufacturing industry.”

'Manufacturing Month opportunity to cherish sector' writes Stephen Kelly, Chief Executive, Manufacturing NI

As originally appeared in the Irish News, 3 May

Stephen Kelly, Chief Executive, Manufacturing NI

“We don’t make anything anymore”.  We’ve all heard it, some of you have probably said it.

Admittedly the days of the industrial revolution, where tens of thousands walked through a single set of gates to the sound of the factory horn, making boats and ropes and linen and shirts seem long gone, but they have been replaced with innovative, agile, and no less world-renowned manufacturers in every community and in election week constituency in Northern Ireland.

Covid changed a lot and also proved a lot.  We may have seen much of our capability move east but what our incredible manufacturing leaders have created in its wake has proven to be resilient, creative, and critical. Whether it’s our food producers or our engineers or those who pivoted to meet the emergency on our health front line, the importance of having our own domestic production base has never been clearer.

With the complications of Brexit, supply chain challenges, rapid inflation, and an increasingly acute lack of labour, there’s no doubt that the 2020s has already seen the most extraordinarily difficult time to be in a manufacturing business. Yet, despite all that has been thrown at them, the local sector has never been more upbeat.  Our surveying published last week shows that two thirds of firms are reporting themselves as growing compared to 41% in July 2020 as we exited the first Covid lockdown.

Bringing in almost £15bn of external income, more than what Treasury passes back to the Executive to run public services, means that we really don’t have an NI economy if it weren’t for of manufacturers. Which is why it is important that 39% say they have increasing sales in the EU and 40% increasing sales in GB.

And in employment, local firms are returning or creating jobs four times faster than their counterparts in Britain. Nothing seems capable of stopping the march of our makers.

That is why we have designated May 2022 as Manufacturing Month, to cherish and celebrate those in great businesses, populated by great people, and are making great products enjoyed in markets at home and abroad.

Blue chips like KPMG, Pinsent Masons, Lockton, and Barclays, as well as public sector partners Invest NI and the Further Education Colleges, recognise the contribution being made economically and socially by the sector which is why they’re supporting Manufacturing Month. 

The Department for the Economy recognises it by picking out Advanced Manufacturing as an opportunity in its 10x Strategy. The Department of Finance has singled out the need to buy more locally to ensure supply chain resilience whilst rebuilding our economy.

Our firms demonstrate every day that they are capable of running towards and quickly tackling problems.  Imagine the impact they would have in our cities, towns, and townlands if the right environment was created for them to be successful. 

Post-election, we quickly need a Programme for Government, budget, and our Executive back taking local decisions for local people.  We need the UK and the EU to provide the stability, certainty, simplicity, and affordability through agreement on our post-Brexit trading environment.

But most importantly, we need to celebrate, if only just for the month of May, the people who make our food and the table it rests upon, those who bring us our machines and motorway bridges, those who put the wings on the planes for our holiday flights, and those who are providing pharmaceuticals and the PPE to protect our nurses.

#AE22 Brown O’Connor NI Assembly Election Manifestos

Ahead of polling day in Northern Ireland in less than 48 hours, each party has now published their Election Manifestos outlining their vision for Northern Ireland over the next five years.

From boosting the economy to reforming our education sector, and environmental policy to cost-of-living relief, each party vying for votes has detailed where they stand on the day-to-day and big ticket issues facing voters as well as their planned approach.

Many voters will have already decided which parties they will be supporting. According to recent research, however, as many as one in five eligible voters in Northern Ireland have yet to decide how they will cast their vote on Thursday. To assist in making this decision, we have listed below the links to the manifestos for each of the parties contesting the Assembly Election.

Whether it’s the establishment of an Investment Bank, a Green New Deal, fiscal and public service reforms, or ‘fixing’ the NHS, it is important to know what policies each party will be pursuing.

  • Sinn Féin – LINK.

  • Green Party – LINK.

  • People Before Profit – LINK.

Brown O’Connor Communications Weekly Look Ahead: Week Commencing 2 May 2022

Forward Look                                

  • The final Belfast Telegraph-Lucid Talk opinion poll before the Assembly Election places Sinn Féin on course to become the largest party on 26%, followed by the DUP (20%), Alliance (14%), UUP (14%), and the SDLP (10%). An Irish News-University of Liverpool poll will be published on Tuesday.

  • UTV will host their Assembly Election leaders debate on Sunday. The BBC’s debate will take place on Tuesday.

  • This week saw the launch of the Sinn Féin, DUP, Alliance and SDLP Assembly Election manifestos as well as the DUP’s ‘Plan for the Economy’.

  • Planned changes to import rules for goods entering the UK from the EU have been deferred by the UK Government amid increased supply chain costs for businesses.

  • The Fiscal Commission will publish its final report on the case for increasing the Executive’s fiscal powers after the Assembly Election.

  • The UK Parliament will next sit on Tuesday 10 May for the State Opening of Parliament in which the Queen’s Speech will set out the government’s legislative agenda.

  • Round Two of bidding for the UK Government’s Levelling Up Fund will open on Tuesday 31 May, businesses, universities, community organisations, district councils, and Executive departments can apply.

  • The Northern Ireland Office is expected to introduce legislation in the next six months to end all Troubles-related prosecutions.

  • The High Court ruling into whether the Department for Infrastructure unlawfully granted planning permission for the redevelopment of Casement Park is expected before the end of May.

  • The next meeting of Belfast City Council will take place on Tuesday.

  • Manufacturing Month 2022 kicks off next week with a launch breakfast taking place at the Soloist, Belfast on Tuesday. The month will see a series of events, webinars, and the flagship Anchor High Summit on Thursday 12 May. To find out more: LINK.

Other Stories this week

  • DUP officers in South Down have resigned en masse in protest at the selection of Diane Forsythe as the party’s candidate in the Assembly Election.

  • Former senior Executive civil servant Andrew McCormick has criticised the UK Government for failing to take responsibility for the NI Protocol and its impacts.

  • The NI Chamber has appointed Stuart Anderson as Head of Public Affairs.

  • The number of eligible voters in Northern Ireland has increased by 119,000 since the 2017 Assembly Election according to the Electoral Office.

  • A legal challenge against the NI Protocol, led by TUV leader Jim Allister, has been referred to the UK Supreme Court.

  • UTV has disclosed an 11% decrease in pre-tax revenue recorded during the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic.

  • Members of Northern Ireland’s largest teaching union have voted in favour of strike action to commence from Monday 9 May.

Upcoming key political and business events

  • 3 May, Manufacturing Month 22 Launch Breakfast, The Soloist, Belfast

  • 5 May, Northern Ireland Assembly Election

  • 10 May, State Opening of Parliament

  • 12 May, Anchor High Summit, Manufacturing NI, Galgorm Hotel and Spa

  • 26 May, Belfast Telegraph Business Awards, Crowne Plaza Hotel, Belfast

  • 21 June, House of Commons rises for Summer Recess

  • 24 June, NI Chamber’s Annual Lunch

  • 30 June, Irish News Workplace and Employment Awards, Titanic Belfast

  • 29 – 30 September, Centre for Cross Border Studies’ Annual Conference

Consultations

#AE22 Brown O'Connor NI Assembly Election Constituency Profile: Belfast South

#AE22 Constituency Profile: Belfast South

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

  • According to the 2011 Census, Belfast South is the constituency which is most balanced between people brought up in Catholic (44.0%) and Protestant (43.7%) community backgrounds, and has by far the highest proportion of population (nearly double) from other religions (2.8%).

  • Belfast South has the lowest proportion of population registered to vote in the constituency; at 63.1%, it’s the only constituency below 70% (the Northern Ireland average is 72.2%).

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

  • DUP attracted the most first preference votes (20.8%) in the constituency in 2017. The vote share between the two DUP candidates was nearly perfect and the 83 vote gap in the first stage slowly reduced to just over 25 votes by the end of the ninth stage when Emma Little Pengelly was excluded and her transfers brought Christopher Stalford home.

  • SDLP fell below 20% of the vote for the first time at an Assembly election.

  • UUP made inroads with a 2.3 percentage point increase in their first preference vote, but 9.0% in 2017 is still only a third of their share back in 2003.

  • Sinn Féin achieved their best ever result in Belfast South with 17.7% of the vote in 2017.

SINCE 2017

  • Matthew O’Toole was co-opted to replace Claire Hanna following her election to Westminster in 2019.

  • Deirdre Hargey was co-opted to replace Máirtín Ó Muilleoir in January 2020.

  • Edwin Poots is the new DUP MLA following the death of Christopher Stalford.

THE DAY OF THE COUNT

  • If you’re following the Belfast South count, stock up with snacks: the #awake4bailey hashtag was apt given the 3am declaration of the final seat.

  • Sinn Féin picked up just over a quota of first preference votes in 2017. Can they repeat that success in May and consolidate that rise in support?

  • Can the Greens break through the 10% vote share for the first time in Belfast South?

  • The DUP’s two candidates picked up one and a quarter quotas of first preference votes in 2017 which means that Edwin Poots should be elected over the quota in the first stage unless there has been a very sharp drop in DUP support.

  • Unionist candidates have polled around two quotas of first preferences in the last two Assembly elections. If that support is sustained, the UUP stand a chance of narrowly winning a seat.

COMMENTARY

Belfast South is often touted as the most politically diverse constituency in Northern Ireland. All five seats are held by different parties, and in some cases by very fine margins: the vote share of the four largest parties in the constituency ranged from 17.7% to 20.8% in 2017.

It has been home to many well-known political figures in Northern Ireland’s history. This mix of fine margins and big personalities makes it one of the constituencies that pundits and journalists pay particular attention to at election time.

The SDLP are running two first time candidates, Matthew O’Toole and Elsie Trainor. Incumbent O’Toole would be the favourite to hold the party’s sole seat in the constituency. While the SDLP will be hopeful of making some electoral progress following Claire Hanna’s landslide win at the 2019 General Election, taking two seats would be hard to achieve. 

Alliance are also running two candidates, both high profile figures. Incumbent MLA Paula Bradshaw is seeking a third term as an MLA. She is running alongside the current Lord Mayor of Belfast, Kate Nicholl who has received praise for her performance in the civic role she took up on 1 June 2021. It’s not impossible that Nicholl could beat Bradshaw in the polls if the party isn’t careful with its vote management strategy. Like the SDLP, Alliance would require quite a surge in their vote to achieve two seats. 

Political veteran Edwin Poots is running for the DUP for the first time in Belfast South, having switched from Lagan Valley (and lost out on his bid to succeed Jim Wells on the South Down ballot). The DAERA Minister is the only DUP candidate this time, and even with the swing away from his party predicted by opinion polls, he would be expected to hold this seat that he has inherited from the late Christopher Stalford.

Another minister running for the first time is Sinn Féin’s Deirdre Hargey. Nominated as Minister for Communities two days after joining the Assembly in January 2020, Hargey will be attempting to hold the seat first gained by the party in 2003. Sinn Féin scored a record result in 2017 and it’s worth keeping an eye on how much of Ó Muilleoir’s vote stays with Hargey.

There could be quite a fight for the fifth seat. A few percentage points growth or decline for any party could radically change the electoral mathematics in the final stages of the count.

The Green Party leader Clare Bailey is seeking a third term. Her party has enjoyed increased electoral success at local government level and has garnered some momentum in recent weeks with the success of some of its private member’s bills.

The UUP are targeting Belfast South to win back the seat they lost in 2016. Stephen McCarthy is running for the first time for the UUP in the constituency. If the Beattie Bounce is happening anywhere, it would need to be happening here. 

An initial 384 vote gap between Michael Henderson (UUP) and Clare Bailey (Green) widened in nearly every subsequent stage of the 2017 count. But if the eventual DUP winner’s surplus had been distributed – as it is likely to be in May with just one DUP candidate running – it could have placed Henderson within a hundred votes of Bailey.

A drop in unionism’s share of the vote will favour the Greens. But a surging Alliance could gain preferences at the Green’s expense. Which could bring the UUP across the line ahead of the Greens. It’ll be a long night.

PREDICTIONS

  • One DUP, One Sinn Féin, One SDLP, One Alliance, One Green.

  • But never rule out a surprise in Belfast South.

Belfast Chamber sets out five steps to transform city’s economy post-election

(L - R): Simon Hamilton, Belfast Chamber Chief Executive; Leona Barr, Centre Manager, CastleCourt; Zoe Watson, Operations Director, Clover Group; Michael Stewart, Belfast Chamber President; Peter McCausland, Director, Value Cabs

Membership body says nothing short of full Executive return will do for Belfast businesses

The Belfast Chamber has called on candidates in the city to support its plans to revitalise Belfast’s economy following May’s election.

Launching today, Belfast Chamber’s Belfast City Commitment asks election candidates to support their five-fold programme to make Belfast one of Europe’s leading innovative and sustainable cities. It’s ‘5 Commitments For A Better Belfast’ sets out five asks of the next Executive and Assembly in areas including infrastructure, governance, connectivity, and housing in an attempt to help Belfast reach the standard set by competitor cities like Liverpool, Leeds and Birmingham.

Growing the city centre population by 20,000 and making Belfast a people-centred, safe, and clean city are among the priorities set out in the policy document. Specific proposals include the delivery of a Belfast city centre housing plan, an upgrade of the city’s water and sewage system, and a review into the powers of local government across Northern Ireland.

The membership body, which represents over 800 businesses, has called for the immediate restoration of the Executive following May’s poll.  Belfast Chamber Chief Executive, Simon Hamilton, says that the city is “perfectly positioned to push on” and be a catalyst for Northern Ireland’s economic regeneration, but that an absent Stormont could hamper Belfast’s future growth.

Belfast Chamber Chief Executive, Simon Hamilton, said:

“Belfast’s story is not fully written. Our city is still a work in progress, emerging from the challenges of the past, but headed towards a brighter future. To that end, we are asking candidates in the upcoming Assembly election to help our city realise its potential. Not in twenty or thirty years, but now.”

“Our Belfast City Commitment asks election candidates to pledge their support for five steps we believe will spark a gear-change in how we do business in the city. If implemented, our asks will transform Belfast into an innovative, inclusive, and sustainable city fit for whatever the future may hold. What we need is Stormont support to help us achieve that.”

“An absent Executive following next week’s poll would deliver nothing for the Belfast economy and would impact negatively on the city’s growth. Anything short of a full return will damage investment prospects, hamper long-term development, and would endanger the hard-earned progress we have made over recent years. Our message to the next cohort of MLAs is clear and unequivocal: to deliver for Belfast, we need the Executive to return immediately.”

“Belfast is the engine room of our regional economy and is perfectly positioned to push on and provide more jobs, more investment, and more regeneration for the whole of Northern Ireland. Belfast businesses have, time and time again, demonstrated their commitment to the city through investing in regeneration projects and creating jobs. In our Belfast City Commitment, we ask our Assembly candidates to do the same.”

#AE22 Brown O'Connor NI Assembly Election Constituency Profile: Fermanagh and South Tyrone

#AE22 Constituency Profile: Fermanagh and South Tyrone

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

  • Fermanagh and South Tyrone is geographically the largest of the eighteen constituencies. It has just 31 registered voters per square kilometre, a fiftieth of the eligible voter density of Belfast South (1630 voters/sq km).

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

  • Sinn Féin had a really strong result in 2017 with 42.1% of the vote. They won back the third seat they had lost to the SDLP in 2016 despite the switch from six to five seat constituencies, and despite the SDLP vote share increasing by 1.4 percentage points.

  • DUP lost their second seat here in 2017 (party chair Lord Morrow) suffering a 2.8 percentage point swing against them.

  • The UUP last held two seats in Fermanagh & South Tyrone back in 2003 – Tom Elliott and Arlene Foster (22 days before her resignation to join the DUP).

  • Alliance broke through the 1,000 vote barrier for the first time in 2017.

SINCE 2017

  • Colm Gildernew replaced his sister Michelle Gildernew as MLA following her election to Westminster in 2017.

  • Áine Murphy replaced Séan Lynch following his resignation in 2021.

  • Deborah Erskine replaced Arlene Foster following her resignation in 2021.

THE DAY OF THE COUNT

  • Despite a field of 12, the 2017 count only took four stages to complete, due to the electoral mathematics allowing the exclusion of five smaller candidates in the second round.

  • With 16 candidates on the ballot paper in May, the count will be a lot slower to complete.

  • The DUP polled 2.5 times the first preferences of the UUP in 2017.

  • Will Sinn Féin once again poll 2.5 quotas of first preference votes?

  • Watch for Alliance’s first preferences: they amassed 1,437 votes in the last Assembly election, and then nearly doubled that total with 2,650 in the 2019 Westminster poll.

COMMENTARY

Hotly contested at Westminster and Assembly elections, this most westerly constituency in Northern Ireland has always been symbolic for unionism and nationalism.

Following her resignation as DUP Leader, Arlene Foster left local politics and was replaced by Deborah Erskine who is standing alongside Paul Bell for the first time. Both candidates would be seen as sitting in the Foster ‘wing’ of the DUP. With around 30% of the vote in 2017, the DUP have a solid seat in the constituency, but it’s difficult to imagine the circumstances under which they could win back a second seat this May.

On the UUP side, incumbent MLA, Rosemary Barton is standing again alongside former MP and former leader Tom Elliott. There is a UUP seat in the constituency but which of these two wins it is hard to predict. If Barton lost and the party don’t pick up seats elsewhere, the UUP would be left without any female representation in the Assembly.

Sinn Féin did incredibly well winning three seats in 2017. Michelle Gildernew and Séan Lynch won’t be on the ballot this time, with Áine Murphy and Colm Gildernew seeking election to the Assembly in their own right this time alongside incumbent Jemma Dolan who is facing the electorate for the second time.

At the point the SDLP candidate was excluded in 2017, Richie McPhillips was only 62 votes behind Sinn Féin’s Séan Lynch. Fermanagh & South Tyrone is one of the SDLP’s top targets for a gain, with Adam Gannon running this May and hoping to benefit from strong transfers from Alliance (Matthew Beaumont) and the UUP.

PREDICTIONS

  • Two Sinn Féin, One DUP, One UUP.

  • Battle between SDLP and Sinn Féin for the final seat.

Brown O'Connor Communications Weekly Look Ahead: Week Commencing 25 April 2022

Forward Look                                

  • The Queen’s Speech is expected to include a Bill permitting Ministers to unilaterally override parts of the Protocol including border checks on GB-NI trade.

  • Sinn Féin is expected to launch its election manifesto on Monday. The SDLP will launch theirs on Tuesday.

  • UUP leader Doug Beattie says parties should negotiate a Programme for Government prior to agreeing to join an Executive after May’s election.

  • The DUP has announced it will introduce a devolved windfall tax on energy firms in an incoming Executive.

  • The Green Party’s election manifesto sets out policies including the establishment of an independent Environmental Protection Agency. To view: LINK

  • The Brexit Freedoms Bill is expected to be introduced in May and will include significant reform of procurement and data protection regulations.

  • The Department for the Economy has launched a public appointment competition to appoint a Chairperson of Tourism NI. To view: LINK

  • The Commons Library has published a rundown of the Queen’s Speech 2022 ahead of the State Opening of Parliament on 10 May. To view: LINK

  • Parliament has passed a motion asking the Commons Privileges Committee to launch an inquiry into whether Prime Minister Boris Johnson MP broke the Ministerial Code.

  • Northern Ireland Questions will take place in the Commons on Wednesday.

  • Levelling Up Under-Secretary Neil O’Brien MP will brief the NI Affairs Committee on Wednesday.

  • The CBI will host an audience with local political leaders on Thursday at Queen’s University. To view: LINK

  • The Londonderry Chamber will host a pre-election event with Foyle candidates at Ulster University Magee on Friday.

Other Stories this week

  • Prime Minister Boris Johnson MP apologised to MPs after being sanctioned for breaking Covid-19 rules.

  • Tourism bodies have warned that new cross-border travel rules in the Government’s Borders Bill could cost the industry up to £160m.

  • People Before Profit launched their election manifesto in Derry. Among the policies set out is the introduction of a £15-per-hour minimum wage.

  • Unions representing Translink employees have deferred strike action planned for next week.

Upcoming key political and business events

  • 28 April, CBI’s An Audience with Northern Ireland’s Political Leaders, The Great Hall Queen’s University

  • 28 April, Belfast Chamber’s Spring Networking Reception, Whites Garden

  • 29 April, Londonderry Chamber Pre-Election Event, Ulster University, Derry

  • 3 May, Manufacturing Month 22 Launch Breakfast, KPMG, The Soloist, Belfast

  • 5 May, Northern Ireland Assembly Election

  • 10 May, State Opening of Parliament

  • 12 May, Anchor High Summit, Manufacturing NI, Galgorm Hotel and Spa

  • 26 May, Belfast Telegraph Business Awards, Crowne Plaza Hotel, Belfast

  • 21 June, House of Commons rises for Summer Recess

  • 30 June, Irish News Workplace and Employment Awards, Titanic Belfast

Consultations

#AE22 Brown O'Connor NI Assembly Election Constituency Profile: Upper Bann

#AE22 Constituency Profile: Upper Bann

ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY

Upper Bann lies south of Lough Neagh and includes Lurgan, Portadown, Craigavon, Banbridge and Loughbrickland. It has the largest population and the largest registered electorate of the eighteen Assembly constituencies in Northern Ireland.

The Dickson Plan school transfer system operates in much of Upper Bann with post-primary school pupils attending Junior Highs before transferring to Senior High Schools without the use of the 11+/Transfer Test for academic selection.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

DUP vote went against the overall trend and increased by 1.7 percentage points between 2016 and 2017.

Sinn Féin saw their vote increase by 2.9 percentage points but still lost a seat in the new five seat configuration.

Alliance scored a record result at the 2019 Westminster election with 12.9% of the vote, doubling their best vote share in a previous Upper Bann Westminster or Assembly poll.

SDLP’s Dolores Kelly lost her seat to Sinn Féin at the 2016 election, regaining it 11 months later in the 2017 poll.

SINCE 2017

Diane Dodds replaced Carla Lockhart following her Westminster win in 2019.

THE DAY OF THE COUNT

Watch to see how the overall share of unionist and nationalist first preferences compares with 2017: 3.3 quotas amongst unionist parties gave them 3 seats, 2.3 quotas led to 2 seats.

Which designation will be hit hardest by any rise in votes for ‘other’ parties? (Alliance and Greens polled just over a third of a quota in 2017.)

COMMENTARY

Upper Bann is a fascinating contest this year with a three-cornered battle underway.

The DUP holds two seats in the constituency with both incumbent MLAs, Jonathan Buckley and Diane Dodds running for the party. Dodds was co-opted into the seat following her time as a Member of the European Parliament. She served as Economy Minister for 18 months before new DUP leader Edwin Poots replaced her with Paul Frew in June 2021. (24 days later, another change in DUP leadership ousted Frew in favour of Gordon Lyons.) Dodds has never before stood in Upper Bann, and this will be her first Assembly election contest since losing her Belfast West seat in 2007.

The UUP leader Doug Beattie is seeking to secure a third term in the Assembly and will have Glenn Barr running alongside him for the first time. Until 2017, the UUP held two seats in Upper Bann, but it is unlikely that they will regain the ground lost when Jo-Anne Dobson was not re-elected.

Likewise for Sinn Féin, incumbent John O’Dowd is standing again for the party with new running mate Liam Mackle, It is unlikely that two Sinn Féin candidates can get over the line in the five seat constituency. 

How the final two seats fall in Upper Bann is anything but certain.

If the opinion polls are right and there is a significant swing away from the DUP, the party’s second seat in Upper Bann could be vulnerable.

SDLP’s Dolores Kelly is defending a seat she won back in 2017. Kelly is a political veteran and attempting to hold the SDLP’s position in the face of the decline in party support since 1998. Kelly is on a slender margin and got across the line on Alliance and UUP transfers in 2017, a definite beneficiary of the ‘Vote Mike and you get Colum’ policy.

Kelly is under real pressure from the Alliance candidate, Eoin Tennyson, whose record result for the party in Upper Bann at the most recent Westminster poll – coming third with 12.9% of the vote – makes him a favourite to win a seat if that momentum can be consolidated.

PREDICTIONS

One DUP, One Sinn Féin, One UUP

Last two seats are a battle between DUP, Alliance and the SDLP.