#AE22 Constituency Profile: Belfast East
ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY
Belfast East is the largest of the four Belfast constituencies by area, and is the least densely populated.
The constituency has produced big political hitters and party leaders like Peter Robinson, Reg Empey, John Alderdice and Naomi Long.
PREVIOUS ELECTIONS
DUP vote marginally increased in 2017, bucking the Northern Ireland-wide downward trend.
Alliance have increased their vote at every Assembly election in the constituency since 2003.
Once fertile ground for the PUP, the party hasn’t been competitive since they lost the seat in 2011 and the DUP began to seriously canvas for loyalist votes in east Belfast.
After a collapse at the 2011 Assembly election, the UUP vote has been rising.
SINCE 2017
While one of only four constituencies with all five MLAs elected in 2017 still in place at the end of the term – albeit with Naomi Long handing over to Máire Hendron for six months after the European Election – only three of those candidates are standing for re-election.
The former PUP candidate and deputy leader Councillor John Kyle left the party and soon after joined the UUP.
THE DAY OF THE COUNT
Will Alliance outpoll the DUP in terms of first preference votes for the first time?
Belfast East’s fifth candidate was elected in stage 11: only East Londonderry took more stages to elect its MLAs in 2017.
COMMENTARY
Belfast East was once a predictable constituency, but the rise of the Alliance Party has challenged the DUP’s dominance (and that of unionism) at Assembly and Westminster elections. Fielding just two candidates each, neither party is seeking to win extra seats.
This is the only constituency that has so far ever elected more than one Alliance MLA. The party broke the 30% vote share threshold in 2017, and could be the top polling party in 2022. They’ll easily return their two candidates. Party stalwart Chris Lyttle is bowing out of frontline politics and will be replaced on the ballot by Belfast City Councillor Peter McReynolds.
Councillor David Brooke is a new face for the DUP, replacing former Speaker Robin Newton and will be running alongside sitting MLA, Joanne Bunting. The DUP has always held at least two seats in Belfast East since 1998 and would still be expected to do so at this election, even if their vote share decreases.
The UUP are adding to their ticket, hoping to capitalise on local defections and promote more female candidates with Lauren Kerr running alongside sitting MLA, Andy Allen. However, with less than one quota of UUP first preferences at the last election, this move is really about bolstering support for the 2023 local government elections.
The TUV’s candidate in 2016 and 2017, Andrew Girvin, has been moved to Belfast South and replaced on the ballot with John Ross.
The SDLP have polled exactly 250 first preference votes in two of the last three Assembly elections, a quarter of the support that Sinn Féin typically attracts.
For the Greens, Councillor Brian Smyth is aiming to build on progress in the local election for the party. This is the party’s top target. Winning in May 2022 would require more than doubling their best performance to date (Ross Brown in 2016) but they will be hopeful of building momentum for a future election.
PREDICTIONS
Two DUP. Two Alliance. One UUP.