#AE22 Constituency Profile: North Antrim
ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY
The North Antrim constituency is 97% rural and takes in the north east corner of Northern Ireland (including the towns of Ballymena, Ballymoney and Ballycastle) excluding the sliver of coastal Glens that fall into the East Antrim constituency.
The Giants’ Causeway and Rathlin Island fall within this constituency. The ballot box from the island’s polling station will have to travel by boat to Ballycastle before making its way over land to the count centre in Ulster University’s Jordanstown Campus.
PREVIOUS ELECTIONS
Sinn Féin’s Philip McGuigan topped the poll in 2017, though wasn’t elected until the sixth stage.
SDLP haven’t won a seat since Declan O’Loan failed to be re-elected in 2011.
DUP have always performed well in North Antrim, keeping three seats until the drop from six to five constituencies in 2017. However, the DUP’s vote share has been dropping at Assembly elections since a peak of 40% back in 2007, and their third candidate was not competitive in 2017.
TUV polled 16.0% of the vote in 2017 and North Antrim was the only constituency in which they ran two candidates.
SINCE 2017
One of just four constituencies with all MLAs elected in 2017 standing again in 2022.
Alliance’s share of the vote has risen significantly: from 5.4% in the 2017 Assembly poll to 14.1% in the 2019 General Election.
The TUV are performing strongly in opinion polls; North Antrim is one of their key targets to win another seat.
THE DAY OF THE COUNT
North Antrim was one of the slowest constituencies to declare its first candidates elected: it was stage 6 before Philip McGuigan and Robin Swann hit the quota.
If the DUP hold their vote share, then both their candidates will be elected over the quota on first preference votes. If neither is over quota, then the DUP vote has plummeted and the TUV and/or UUP may benefit.
If UUP first preferences are finely balanced between their two candidates, it could lead to a very interesting count in terms of the order of exclusions. However, it’s likely that Robin Swann will receive a large personal vote that dooms his running mate’s chances and helps Alliance’s chances of a win.
COMMENTARY
North Antrim is a solid Unionist constituency with a majority of unionist MLAs being returned at every election. North Antrim is a heartland for the DUP, and Ian Paisley Snr’s base for 40 years.
Likewise, for the TUV, this constituency has been fertile ground for the party, providing it with an MLA seat and a cadre of local councillors. The TUV have thus far outpolled the UUP in every Assembly election. North Antrim is their best chance to get a second candidate elected, but they will need a very large swing.
According to polling, Health Minister Robin Swann is one of the most popular ministers in the Executive and has enjoyed a high profile through his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. His popularity and profile have encouraged the UUP to run a second candidate (Bethany Ferris) at this election.
Philip McGuigan from Sinn Féin will be aiming to hold his seat. Since 1998, there has always been at least one Nationalist seat in the constituency.
But the rise of the Alliance Party could deliver the first female to represent North Antrim in the Northern Ireland Assembly. In 2019, the party made breakthroughs at the local and Westminster elections in North Antrim. Patricia O’Lynn is running again for the party and has a path to win the seat if she polls ahead of the SDLP’s Eugene Reid and then benefits from critical transfers.
PREDICTIONS
Two DUP, One TUV, One UUP.
Last seat is a battle between Sinn Féin and Alliance.