#AE22 Constituency Profile: Foyle
ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY
The Foyle constituency is the second most deprived after Belfast West.
Unemployment in Foyle is second only to Belfast North according to latest figures from NISRA’s experimental claimant count (which includes Jobseeker’s Allowance Claimants and those Universal Credit claimants who were claiming principally for the reason of being unemployed).
PREVIOUS ELECTIONS
Following the death of Martin McGuinness, Sinn Féin scored a record share of the vote with 36.6% in the 2017 Assembly election.
Until the 2016 Assembly election, the SDLP vote share always exceeded 35%. It dropped to 30.0% in 2016, recovering a little to 31.8% in 2017.
DUP bucked their Northern Ireland-wide trend with an uptick in their vote share of 1.5% in 2017.
SINCE 2017
Only two of the five MLAs elected in 2017 are still in position.
There have been a total of 5 co-options covering 3 seats since 2017.
Sinead McLaughlin replaced SDLP leader Colum Eastwood in 2019 when he won the Westminster seat.
Sinn Féin have a totally new MLA team, having cycled through six MLAs in the constituency over the past five years.
Eamonn McCann has stepped back from frontline politics. He was a former MLA and the highest profile voice for People Before Profit.
THE DAY OF THE COUNT
If only running only two candidates, expect Sinn Féin to get one elected over quota on first preferences. However it could be a long wait to see the final seats settled.
Keep an eye on the level of support for People Before Profit, Aontú and independent Anne McCloskey. Their support is strong in Foyle. Their support may eat into other nationalist party’s share and affect the order of exclusions.
COMMENTARY
Foyle has been a strong battleground between the SDLP and Sinn Fein for decades. Traditionally it’s been one of the SDLP’s strongest constituencies. At its peak, the SDLP held three seats and more recently has held onto two safe assembly seats. The party is running two incumbent MLAs, Mark H. Durkan and Sinead McLaughlin, along with former Mayor, Councillor Brian Tierney in a bid to capitalise their resounding Westminster win in 2019 and regain the third Assembly seat.
Sinn Féin have had a difficult time since their success in 2017. The removal of sitting MLAs together with poor results at local and Westminster elections has led to turnover within the party’s local ranks. The party’s latest MLAs, Padraig Delargy and Ciara Ferguson, will be trying to hold the party’s two seats.
Traditionally, there is a Unionist quota in this constituency. Gary Middleton is the standard-bearer for the DUP in Foyle, but People Before Profit came within 663 votes of his seat in 2017. Whilst Sinn Féin and the SDLP will be fighting each other for votes, they will also have their eye on this DUP seat. For Sinn Féin it will be to hold their ground against any potential surge for their main nationalist rivals in the constituency.
A DUP or a Sinn Féin loss could be a significant factor in which party wins the largest number of MLAs and can nominate the First Minister. Added into this mix is former Aontú deputy leader Anne McCloskey who left the party over its stance on Covid-19 and is standing as an independent candidate. She polled over 1,000 first preferences in the 2019 local government election and is likely to exceed that in May across the larger constituency.
PREDICTIONS
Two safe SDLP seats and one safe Sinn Fein seat.
Last two seats are quite competitive with DUP, second Sinn Fein and third SDLP candidate in the running.