Brown O’Connor Communications Weekly Look Ahead - Week Commencing 5 February

Forward Look      

  • The Northern Ireland Assembly will be recalled tomorrow after the DUP accepted new post-Brexit trade arrangements between Northern Ireland, the rest of the UK and the European Union. Legislation which passed in the House of Commons on Thursday will mean no routine checks on British goods being sold to consumers in Northern Ireland.

  • The first item of business will be the election of a Speaker. The UUP’s Mike Nesbitt MLA, the SDLP’s Patsy McGlone MLA and the DUP’s Edwin Poots MLA are among some of the likely candidates to assume the role.

  • Membership of the Business Committee will then be decided without debate. Following this, the First Minister, deputy First Minister and two Junior Ministers of the Executive Office will be selected.

  • Parties will then select Ministers using the d’Hondt system. Sinn Féin will have three ministerial picks alongside the First Minister and one Junior Minister, and the DUP will have two picks alongside deputy First Minister and one Junior Minister. The Alliance Party are entitled to two ministerial positions, with the UUP entitled to one. The SDLP has confirmed that it will opt out of the Executive, and instead form the Official Opposition.  

  • The Command Paper on the ‘Safeguarding the Union’ deal to restore power-sharing states that the UK Government will enter into exploratory talks with the United States on options for introducing pre-clearance checks on customs and immigration for passengers travelling from Belfast to the US. US Special Envoy for Economic Affairs Joe Kennedy III cautioned that getting US agreement for preclearance was a “long, detailed process that takes years and is expensive”.

  • The DUP deal also includes a commitment to revive efforts to devolve corporation tax to Northern Ireland.

  • The DUP’s Paul Givan told the BBC’s The View that they would be pulling the Stormont Brake, and “in fact we will be pulling it quite soon”.

  • UUP Leader Doug Beattie has told the BBC that he has engaged with his party officer on Thursday evening and that would continue into this morning regarding the party going into opposition. He added that a decision would be announced later this morning.

  • SDLP leader Colum Eastwood MP has said he "cannot in good conscience" attend the White House's St Patrick's Day celebrations because of the US response to the Israel-Gaza war. The SDLP will instead send a delegation in his place.

  • Shadow Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Hilary Benn MP will visit Northern Ireland on Tuesday 13 February.

  • The Ulster Unionist Party has selected Diana Armstrong to run in the Fermanagh and South Tyrone constituency in the upcoming Westminster election.

Republic of Ireland

  • Support for Sinn Féin has seen a significant decline with the latest Red C poll, showing the party on 25%, down from 29% in November. Fine Gael remain unchanged at 20%, while Fianna Fáil gain 1 point to 17%.

  • The Government has approved a proposal to hold a constitutional referendum in June on Ireland’s participation in the Unified Patent Court. The referendum will be held alongside the European and local elections.

  • Fianna Fáil MEP Billy Kelleher has been selected as the party’s candidate for Ireland South for this year’s European elections.

  • Fine Gael Midlands-North-West MEP Colm Markey has called for investment in ports for renewable energy support. The MEP is hosting a conference, entitled “Europe’s Energy Future: Ireland’s Opportunity,” in Dundalk Institute of Technology, today.

Other Stories this week

  • The Bank of England has forecast that inflation could ease to its 2% target within a few months, as it opted to hold interest rates at 5.25% for the fourth time in a row.

  • The DUP has confirmed it will conduct an internal investigation into leaks shared by Jamie Bryson during their Executive meeting on Monday evening.

  • Tourism NI has launched a series of Innovation Workshops for tourism and hospitality businesses across Northern Ireland. The workshops will take place at The Everglades Hotel, Derry on 6 February, The Junction, Dungannon on 7 February, The Crowne Plaza, Belfast on 8 February and the Game of Thrones Studio Tour, Banbridge on 9 February. Further information is available here: LINK.

  • Niall McCracken will take up the role of Mid Ulster Reporter at BBC News NI at the end of March.

  • The Department for the Economy has announced the appointment of John Healy OBE as Chair to the Board of Invest NI.

Upcoming key political and business events

  • 6 February, Women in Business, Empowering Women in Leadership, online.

  • 9 February, Women in Business, Women in Tech Conference, Titanic Belfast.

  • 21 February, ICCA UK & Ireland Annual Conference, ICC Belfast.

  • 21 February, Chief Executives’ Club and Engineers Ireland, Sir Bernard Crossland Lecture, Queen’s University Belfast.

  • 22 February, Women in Business, Equipping Managers for Success, Pinsent Masons.

  • 29 February, Public Sector Cyber Security Northern Ireland Conference, Hilton Belfast.

  • 2 March, Alliance Party Annual Conference, Stormont Hotel, Belfast.

  • 5 March, InterTradeIreland, Venture Capital Conference, Titanic Belfast.

  • 6 June, The Irish News Workplace and Employment Awards 2024, Titanic Belfast.

Consultations

 

Charity Inspire says it’s Time to Talk as major new mental health survey reveals one in five people polled in NI feel their mental health is ‘poor’ or ‘very poor’

Kerry Anthony, CEO, Inspire

  • Charity Inspire warns reluctance to talk is leading to isolation, social withdrawal, and worsening mental health

  • New survey reveals one in five in NI describe their mental health as “poor” or “very poor”

  • One in four in NI do not feel free to talk to friends and family about how they’re really feeling

  • Across the UK, it is people from NI who bottle up their mental health struggles the most to avoid being a burden to others

Northern Ireland mental health charity, Inspire, has announced the findings of a major new poll today (Thursday, 1 February), revealing that one in five people surveyed here have described their mental health as “poor” or “very poor”.

The findings come from a Censuswide poll of 1001 people in Northern Ireland, and more than 5000 people UK-wide, which is being revealed today as part of Time to Talk Day (1 February).

Aiming to spark the UK’s biggest conversation about mental health, Time to Talk Day was created by mental health charities across the UK, including Inspire in Northern Ireland, MIND, and Rethink Mental Illness, in partnership with Co-Op.

Worryingly, the survey also found that not only are people in Northern Ireland reluctant to talk about their mental health, but they are also experiencing increased isolation, loneliness, and worsening mental health as a result.

Key findings
Among the key findings for NI, were:

  • Almost a quarter (24%) of respondents do not feel free to talk to friends and family when they’re struggling.

  • NI is the region in the UK with the highest percentage of people who feel they should put on a brave face to avoid talking about their mental health. 72% of people surveyed here say they mask how they’re feeling to those closest to them, significantly higher than the 64% average in other parts of the UK.

  • More than one in five (22%) stated their mental health has worsened as a result of not speaking up.

  • Of those who did bottle things up, 41% said it led to them becoming withdrawn, 34% said they felt isolated, 31% said they withdrew from social activities, and 27% felt they experienced struggles at work.

  • When it comes to masking our feelings, the survey participants admitted that, when asked how they are, one of the most commonly used phrases to present a brave face to the world is “Good thanks, and you?” (31%) closely followed by “Not too bad” and “I’m all right” (each at 30%) and “Fine thanks” (27%).

  • A majority of Northern Ireland respondents (60%), agreed the pressures of the last few years (cost-of-living crisis, pandemic, negative news cycle) have made them less likely to open up about their mental health because they don't want to worry others during difficult times.

Why it’s good to talk
Speaking about the survey findings, Kerry Anthony MBE, CEO of Inspire said:

“So many people in Northern Ireland have been, and are going through a difficult time, and while some people may find it admirable that the empathetic people of Northern Ireland don’t want to worry others in difficult times, it is vital to remind anyone who feels this way that your mental health is important too.

“Talking about our mental health can help us feel less alone, more able to cope, and can help us feel able to seek support. Telling someone else how you are feeling is a great way to start turning things around for the better. It’s vital to have early, open, and honest conversations and I would urge everyone to find Time to Talk about how they are feeling.”

Mental health stigma lingering longer in Northern Ireland
In further findings of the Censuswide Time to Talk Day survey, respondents also indicated the ongoing impact of the perceived taboo around mental health as being a contributing factor as to why they don’t talk about it. Reasons given included an assumption that others don’t want to know (28%), a fear of being judged or treated differently (25%), and a fear of others’ reactions (26%).

Examining the wider issue of stigma around mental health, respondents to the survey were also asked if it’s become easier to talk about mental health over the last decade. While 68% agreed that the topic of mental health was taboo ten years ago, 54% think this is still the case.  In Northern Ireland, this perception exceeds the UK average (45%) by a wide margin and it is the highest of any region in the UK.

Speaking about the stigma that can be associated with mental health, Kerry Anthony from Inspire added:

“Time to Talk Day is important because the more we talk openly, the more the narrative changes, and more people will feel safe in sharing how they feel.

“We can all help challenge the stigma around these conversations, so people who are struggling know that they can confidently speak up and seek support.

“We know that, for many, talking can feel difficult. Although sometimes it may feel easier to tell people we’re ‘fine’ than to say how we feel, bottling things up is just storing up trouble and, as this research shows, it can have a negative effect. This Time to Talk Day, we would urge everyone to open up and let someone else in - a small gesture or conversation can make a big difference when it comes to improving mental health.”

“With the restoration of an Assembly and Executive a step closer we now need to see our politicians talking to each other without any further delays.  While our message today is it’s Time to Talk, it must also be ‘time for action’ as we urgently call for the new Executive to focus on the full implementation and funding of the mental health strategy.”

For information about Time to Talk Day, including tips on starting the conversation, visit: timetotalkday.co.uk. Follow the conversation on social media #TimeToTalk.

Northern Ireland Assembly coming back? – is your organisation ready?

Political Influencing Experts: Brown O’Connor Directors, Chris Brown and Arlene O’Connor

The deal is finally done to restore power-sharing to Northern Ireland after a break of almost 2 years. This breakthrough will result in the appointment of new Ministers, new Committees and new priorities for an Executive top team.

With Assembly sittings due to take place imminently to appoint those Ministers and populate the new scrutiny committees, it’s time to think about your organisation’s priorities and public affairs strategy.

Whether it’s a review of current strategy or the development of a new campaign, Brown O’Connor has the expertise, energy and trusted advisers in place for you and your organisation to be prepared well in advance.

As Northern Ireland’s leading Lobbying & Public Affairs led integrated communications agency, we’re the award-winning team that will bring Insight, Influence and Impact to the lobbying programmes and campaigns we develop and deliver.

Our Public Affairs services include:

  • Public Affairs Strategy Development

  • Political Intelligence & Monitoring

  • Policy & Issues Based Events

  • Public Awareness Campaigns

  • Media Relations and Social Media Content Generation

  • Supporting Campaign Related Strategic Litigation

  • Consultation Response Drafting

  • Issues Management

Fire Up The Ministerial Skodas...

Today is the day we expect to see the papers and text on which the DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson sold his party the road to restoration.

The information contained within is expected to be faithfully swallowed by many, but ripped asunder by others. The next 24-48 hours will not be sweetness and light for the senior leadership of the party with the ‘unionist voice’ expected to make itself heard.

The Stormont doomsday clock - already set at 90 seconds to disaster - will start to tick louder as the race is now on to get the Assembly back up and running again. There is a fear it could unravel quicker than it takes to strap a wire tap to your chest.

The perceived wisdom is that Saturday will be the day that the Assembly is recalled. The first item of business is the election of the Speaker. Candidates will be nominated by other Members of the Assembly and require cross-community support in order to be confirmed. It would be a surprise if there is not a little pre-planned choreography on Friday evening / Saturday morning between the main parties.

Patsy McGlone MLA and Mike Nesbitt MLA are some historic contenders for the role of Speaker, attempting previously to be elected. At the most recent sitting of the Assembly on January 17, the UUP and SDLP both nominated them respectively, however, neither received cross-community support. The latest craic is that former DUP leader (for a wet weekend) and Minister, Edwin Poots MLA, might be nominated.

Following the election of the Speaker and Deputy Speakers, the election of First and Deputy First Ministers must take place, followed by the selection of Junior Ministers. It’s obvious who will take up the FM role, but it’s a toss-up between Emma Little Pengelly MLA and Gordon Lyons MLA for the Deputy FM role (ok, ok, Joint First Minister). If Lyons doesn’t make the cut at the top of the Executive, it’s highly likely he will be nominated for the role of Finance Minister. Conor Murphy will likely take up the helm at the Department for the Economy. 

The SDLP will form the official opposition and will not be part of an Executive. It is likely that Matthew O’Toole MLA will remain as Leader of the Opposition. The big question will be if the Ulster Unionist Party decide to do the same – would that move represent a lack of ambition for the likes of Steve Aiken MLA or does he slot back in as a good high profile Committee Chair?

Chatter for some time has been that the Alliance Party might opt for the Department for Infrastructure with North Down MLA Andrew Muir MLA putting the hand up for that role - he himself coming from a professional background in transport.

It is worth keeping an eye on the Justice ministerial position. There has been speculation that it may be up for taking from another party (thrown back into the d’Hondt pot), however, it may still be likely that the role will be re-allocated back to the Alliance party, given their ‘other’ Assembly designation. Naomi Long would likely be nominated to take up the role again.

The reality is no one truly knows where the Department of Health will come in the pecking order – does the DUP lean into it and put former First Minister, Paul Givan MLA, in a command role to sort the show out, or does it get a sick note and pushed right down to the very last pick as the Ambulance case?

What does Sinn Fein do with the capable duo of Caoimhe Archibald MLA and Linda Dillon MLA with other Ministerial roles to fill (Agriculture or Communities) and a Junior Minister opening at the Executive Office.

Following this will be the appointment of the Committee Chairs, deputy Chairs and memberships before the formal first sitting of the Assembly which, if all goes according to the proposed timetable, will be Monday or Tuesday of next week – timetabling of the first Plenary session of the Assembly (and Order of Business determined by the Business Committee) and will see the first meeting of the newly formed Executive.

But first we need to get a decent tune out of a couple of Statutory Instruments in Westminster in the next few days…

Baker Tilly Mooney Moore appoints Tapiwa Mhari as Audit Senior

Accountancy and advisory practice Baker Tilly Mooney Moore has announced the appointment of Tapiwa Mhari as Audit Senior.

Tapiwa Mhari, newly appointed Audit Senior at Baker Tilly Mooney Moore

He joins the Belfast firm’s Audit and Assurance team, having recently moved to Northern Ireland from Cape Town, South Africa. Most recently, Tapiwa worked as an Audit Senior with SAPRO, an international consultancy firm with offices in South Africa, India, and the USA.

 Having worked with mid-Tier firms in the USA and Australia, Tapiwa has worked as an auditor across multiple industries, including manufacturing, hospitality, information technology, and pharmaceuticals.

 Prior to his work at SAPRO, Tapiwa held roles including Financial Accountant and Audit Senior in small and medium sized accounting and audit firms in Cape Town.

 Having studied at the University of South Africa, Tapiwa holds a postgraduate diploma in Financial Accounting and a Bachelor of Accounting Services. He is an affiliate of the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants and an Associate General Accountant with the South African Institute of Chartered Accountants.

 A medium-sized accountancy practice based in Belfast, Baker Tilly Mooney Moore delivers services across Audit & Assurance, Business Services, Consulting, Taxation and Restructuring & Insolvency.

 Eimear Brown, Head of Audit at Baker Tilly Mooney Moore, said:

“It is a pleasure to welcome Tapiwa to the Audit and Assurance department at Baker Tilly Mooney Moore. As demand for our services continues to grow, I am confident that his experience will help us continue to deliver outstanding service to our wide range of clients. It is great to have Tapiwa support our team, and I wish him well in his career with Baker Tilly Mooney Moore.”

New Audit Senior at Baker Tilly Mooney Moore, Tapiwa Mhari, added:

“I am delighted to begin my new role in the Audit and Assurance department at Baker Tilly Mooney Moore. Having spent my initial weeks getting to know the client base, I look forward to working with new and existing clients across all sectors to deliver audit services. The team has given me a warm welcome following my move from Cape Town and I look forward to the months and years ahead.”

Baker Tilly Mooney Moore: Looking ahead with cautious optimism

Writes Stephen McConnell, Business Services Partner at Baker Tilly Mooney Moore. Article first published in the Irish News, Tuesday 9 January .

Stephen McConnell, Business Services Partner at Baker Tilly Mooney Moore

The New Year is the perfect time to reflect on what your business has achieved, reassess your financial strategy and plan for the year ahead. After years of economic uncertainty, it’s important to embrace it with optimism and set clear goals for long-term success in 2024 and beyond.

Though the early months of the year can feel overwhelming with self-assessment deadlines looming and audit season in full swing, it’s also a good time to consider implementing changes that might boost your efficiency or expose you to new market areas.

Despite the recent stabilisation of inflation, overhead costs will remain high well into 2024. Cashflow management, sensible budgeting, and regular income and expenditure reviews still take top of the priority list. In the new financial year, businesses need to focus on one of their biggest overheads, their staffing bill.

In April, the national living wage will increase by 9.8% to £11.44 which, despite being good news for employees, will hit struggling businesses hard.

As the cost-of-living crisis continues, consumer confidence is low, even after a busy festive period. Business owners should create detailed forecasts, factoring in scheduled living wage changes. Having a live budgeting system will allow you to react quickly to any cash injections or unexpected hits throughout the year.

To maximise deductions and incentives, individuals and business owners should take time to assess their obligations and seek out opportunities. Take account of R&D tax credits and consider whether any potential upgrades might qualify for government incentives.

Years of economic instability have created a stressful operating environment for businesses. Understanding the warning signs of a struggling business is fundamental to avoiding financial distress. Lengthening creditor payment days, struggling to pay taxes, or an inability to upgrade technologies are key signs of financial distress. If you see these symptoms, voice your concerns early to allow professionals to advise on the best course of action.

While there has been some easing in the recruitment market, curating a suitable team and striking a balance when it comes to flexible working, salary scales, and appropriate benefits to retain valuable team members remains challenging. Looking to 2024 and beyond, business owners should be open minded about their team size, structure, and culture.

Unfortunately, market uncertainty and the high cost of doing business are issues that have followed us into 2024, but the New Year also brings new opportunities for growth. Settle your business plan now for the year ahead but remember to always be flexible and take business advice when considering a new opportunity.

Baker Tilly Mooney Moore: Sporting Secrets for Sustained Success: A Game Plan for Businesses

Writes Brian Lenehan, HR Consultant at Baker Tilly Mooney Moore. Article first published in the Irish News, Tuesday 19 December.

Brian Lenehan, HR Consultant at Baker Tilly Mooney Moore

This has been a big year for sport with the Rugby World Cup, Ryder Cup, and FIFA Women’s World Cup dominating our screens. Next year, all eyes will be on Paris for the 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Games and the return of the European football championships.

These memorable events remind us that the sporting world brings powerful and practical lessons both on and off the pitch, for business leadership and developing a high-performing team.

Several parallels can be drawn, for example in the game of rugby, the requirements to plan, implement and skillfully execute your next move can be translated into business.

South Africa’s loss against Ireland in the Rugby World Cup pool stages demonstrates the importance of drawing valuable lessons from failure and tackling it head on. Collectively reviewing performances allows every member to see the value in losing and learn from mistakes.

It is also important to celebrate the successes of individuals and the team. Allowing rest and recovery time promotes individual wellbeing and prevents long-term burn-out.

Sports teams carefully curate game plans in the months, and sometimes years, ahead of vital matches. Clear goal setting is equally significant in business and allows a team to concentrate their efforts toward a shared purpose.

Business leaders should develop a long-term vision for success to continue pushing the boundaries of success. In the Women’s World Cup, underdogs Morocco, South Africa, and Jamacia all progressed to the Group 16 stage for the first time, by recognising their team strengths and tailoring its strategy to them. 

The worlds of business and sport each rely on similar skill sets, with attributes of determination, accountability, and resilience, creating a culture that fosters collaboration and teamwork. Business leaders should encourage good sportsmanship among their team and create a people-centric environment where all are united around a common goal.

Setting a culture should always start with management. European Ryder Cup team Captain, Luke Donald, is an example of someone who was intentional about making positivity a priority and then led his team to victory. Showcasing this healthy team dynamic will stimulate recruitment for suitable candidates.

Investing in your workforce and encouraging them to continually refine their skills helps build a network of reliable and talented individuals. The All-Blacks’ training regime concentrates on mastering basics like adaptability, flexibility, and mental well-being. The power of building these foundations cannot be underestimated.

In a changing business landscape and difficult recruitment climate these core principles of sportsmanship can be applied to corporate strategies and professional growth. In a continually evolving workplace, sporting attributes can help employers unlock the full potential of their business, enhance recruitment efforts, and improve leadership performance.

Brown O’Connor Communications Weekly Look Ahead: W/C 18 December


  • The House of Commons will break for Christmas recess on Tuesday 19 December. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak MP has said he is ready to legislate to “protect" Northern Ireland's place in the UK's internal market ahead of this. During PMQs, he told the House of Commons such a move would sit alongside a deal to restore the Northern Ireland Executive.

  • Sir Jeffrey Donaldson MP has said his party is “approaching the time” for a decision on his party’s return to Stormont following an offer of a £2.5bn financial package from the UK Government. The package includes a lump sum to settle public sector pay claims. All five main parties have stated that the package is not enough, with Sir Jeffrey Donaldson MP saying the financial package being offered to Northern Ireland “falls short” of what is needed.

  • Ian Snowden has taken up the role of Interim Permanent Secretary at the Department for the Economy following Mike Brennan’s retirement.

  • An updated Autism Strategy has been published by the Department of Health. An initial two-year delivery plan has been developed which can be viewed here: LINK.

  • The Independent Review of Education has been published, with the panel putting forward a total of 25 recommendations which can be viewed here: LINK.

  • Digital DNA has appointed Chloe Ferris as Managing Director.  

  • Wide disruption is expected today, tomorrow, and Friday 22 December as transport strike action in Northern Ireland takes place.

  • Radiographers in Northern Ireland will strike over working conditions and the strain being placed on them by a lack of recruitment on 18 January, unless a deal is reached between the main parties and the UK Government, according to the Belfast Telegraph.

Republic of Ireland

  • The Sinn Féin Dublin North-West TD, Dessie Ellis says he will wait until after next year’s local elections to decide whether he will run in the next general election. Another Sinn Féin TD, Martin Browne of the Tipperary constituency is yet to confirm whether he will run.

  • Ireland’s domestic economy is slowing faster than expected, according to statistics from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) as reported in the Irish Times. ESRI has predicted domestic economic growth for next year at 2% after GDP fell by 2.7% in 2024.

  • Longford-Westmeath TD and former minister Robert Troy has confirmed that the Standards in Public Office Commission has opened a formal investigation into his conduct following allegations he broke the law by failing to declare property and business interests for three consecutive years, which is also the reason Mr Troy resigned as a junior minister last August.

  • Minister for Climate Eamon Ryan TD said the agreement reached at COP 28 calling on countries to accelerate a global shift away from fossil fuels was historic “because for the first time in nearly 30 years it contains language which addresses and acknowledges fossil fuels as the primary source of climate change”.

Other Stories this week

  • Secretary of State Chris Heaton Harris MP has appointed Ms Karly Greene, Mr Michael Counahan, and Mr John Hood to the board of Tourism NI.

  • The Department for the Economy has launched a public appointment competition to appoint a new Chair to the Board of the Health and Safety Executive for Northern Ireland. Details of the appointment can be viewed here: LINK.

  • According to an internal memo seen by the Irish News, Northern Ireland’s largest car dealership Charles Hurst is set to make up to 100 redundancies. The company operates eight sites in Northern Ireland with a staff of around 870.

  • The Department for Infrastructure is inviting the public to have their say on a consultation on proposed revisions and changes to the Planning (Development Management) Regulations (NI) 2015. The consultation will run for 12 weeks until 3 March 2024. See link here: LINK.

  • The value of goods sales from Britain to Northern Ireland dropped by 2.4% in 2022, as reported by the BBC.

  • Following COP28, renewable energy and net zero policy in Northern Ireland will be the focus of a new inquiry by MPs on the cross-party Northern Ireland Affairs Select Committee. The inquiry comes as a result of data showing that Northern Ireland is not on target to meet it’s 20230 climate targets.

  • The Department for the Economy has launched a competition for bids to run a Social Enterprise Work Programme which delivers strategic support to the social enterprise sector. More information and how to apply can be viewed here: LINK.

  • The Department for Infrastructure has announced a recruitment campaign to appoint a Chair and a Non-Executive Member to the Board of Northern Ireland Water. The application pack can be viewed here: LINK.

  • Payrolled employees and earnings have decreased over the month, according to labour market statistics published by NISRA. The report also states that proposed and confirmed redundancies are approximately three times that of the same period last year. The full report can be viewed here: LINK.

Upcoming key political and business events

  • 19 December, Belfast City Council, ‘Meet the Broker’ VCSE networking event, City Hall.

  • 19 December, House of Commons Christmas Recess begins.

  • 8 January, House of Commons returns from Christmas Recess.

  • 10 January, Invest NI, Essential guide to market research support and business advice. Ecos Hub, Ballymena.

  • 16 January, IoD, The Director’s Update, online.

  • 20 January, TEDxStormont, Parliament Buildings, Belfast.

  • 25 January, NI Cyber, The Breakfast Club, Aflac, Belfast.

Consultations

What's in store for 2024

By Caolan McCusker, Brown O’Connor Communications

Politics in Northern Ireland this year has been marked by the same running theme as 2022 –instability. As the first round of all-party talks since the Summer continues this week, DUP Leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson MP has said his party is “approaching the time” for a decision on a return to Stormont. A financial deal is on the table, and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak MP stands ready to legislate to “protect” Northern Ireland’s place in the UK internal market, however the uncertainty continues. The DUP, which has not put any timescale against its next move, polled at a comfortable 28% in the Autumn poll by LucidTalk, and is therefore not under any electoral pressure for a Stormont return.

2024 looks set to be a bumper year for elections, with widespread speculation that the next UK general election will take place in May 2024. Rumours are also circulating that the next Irish general election could be called before the deadline of March 2025, and the US Presidential election is set to take place in November 2024.

Westminster

Looking ahead to the upcoming Westminster election, it is important to note the significance of Northern Ireland’s 18 seats – NI political parties have been kingmakers in hung parliaments in the past.

The latest YouGov poll on voting intentions shows an almost 20% lead for Labour at 44%, compared to just 25% for Conservatives. The political odds of a Labour Majority at the next general election are placed by PaddyPower at 2/9, compared to 9/1 odds for the Conservatives – most people’s money would be on Starmer. Despite public fatigue with the Conservative government, which has been in charge for thirteen years, the party is utilising every weapon in their policy arsenal ahead of the election, from cutting taxes to their controversial Rwanda asylum plan. This immigration policy brings with it the potential for major implications for Northern Ireland – if the UK leaves the European Convention on Human Rights to achieve this policy due to a possible legal challenge from Strasbourg, some NI political parties argue this would breach the Good Friday Agreement, of which large parts of the deal are underpinned by the ECHR. A huge policy change for NI to potentially happen next year.

Looking South

Turning to the Republic of Ireland, Sinn Féin is enjoying its continuing wave of support ahead of the next general election. It remains Ireland’s most popular party at 29% in a recent Red C poll, comfortably ahead of its closest rivals Fine Gael on 20%. However, due to the proportional representation system in the Republic, it would be nearly impossible for Sinn Féin to achieve a majority of seats on its own – they will need political friends to form a coalition, which they are in short supply of. Therefore, the make-up of the next government is certainly not set in stone. If Sinn Féin was to form a government however, with Michelle O’Neill MLA as First Minister-designate, it would represent one party’s majority political control of the Island of Ireland, bringing with it unprecedented change.

1600 Pennsylvania Ave

The US Presidential race looks set to be a repeat of 2020, with Democratic incumbent Joe Biden likely to face former Republican President Donald Trump. Polls place both candidates neck and neck a year out from the election. President Biden demonstrated a clear commitment to the advancement of Northern Ireland’s economy through his visit earlier this year, and through the appointment of political heavy-weight Joe Kennedy III as Special Envoy. With US investment playing a key role in the NI economy, strong political relationships with the US remain crucial.

The economic outlook may be the major decider in these elections – and 2023 has been a year plagued by inflation, rising interest rates, and teetering on the edge of a recession. The outlook for 2024 remains bleak, with the OECD predicting UK growth to remain low and core inflation to linger at 3.8%. This will likely hurt the chances of incumbent governments and strengthen the chances of their challengers whose supporters seek change.

With all of this political activity comes the crucial need for preparation on the part of businesses.

Options for Pre-Application Community Consultations published by Department for Infrastructure

During the COVID-19 pandemic, DfI temporarily removed the requirement to hold the in-person public event in line with public health guidance.

In response, prospective applicants diversified their consultation methods and made use of digital /online methods including web/online based engagement (such as webinars, online Zoom / MS Teams web events) and increased their use of social media to raise awareness of development proposals and invite feedback from local communities.

Following the pandemic, feedback received as part of the Review of the Implementation of The Planning Act (Northern Ireland) 2011 (24 of 59 responses - 40.6%) and the Planning Engagement Partnership (PEP) indicated that the introduction of the digital / online options during the PACC process were a positive addition to community engagement.

It was felt that during the pandemic the online display of development proposals yielded ‘numerous benefits’.

Following detailed consideration, the Department is proposing two potential options in the current consultation for incorporating digital / online engagement into the PACC process 5 and is seeking views and feedback from the public and stakeholders on these. In summary, the two options are:

Option 1

·       This option retains the requirement for an in-person public event for all major development. However, it would introduce an additional requirement for prospective applicants to display information for all major developments on a website for a specified period, during the pre-application phase.

·       A link to the website would be included on the newspaper notice, and it would display information on the proposal and drawings outlining graphical illustrations of the development.

·       The website would also have the facility to accept comments and feedback online and would provide information on how to contact the applicant in relation to queries.

·       It is anticipated that the date of the in-person public event would coincide with the live website.

·       This would enable members of the public to view and consider the proposals online, with the option of attending the public event and engaging with the applicant to provide comments in person.

Option 2

This option retains the requirement for a public event for all major development, however, proposes to introduce an element of flexibility enabling it to be facilitated either as:

·       an in-person consultation event held in the locality of the proposed development; or

·       an online consultation event, where members of the public can attend virtually to engage with the applicant and provide comments on the proposed development. In practice, the prospective applicant would propose the type of public event it believes to be the most appropriate based on the detail of the proposed development and its site location, and agreement would be sought from the council or Department as part of the PAN process.

Similar to Option 1, this option seeks to introduce an additional requirement for prospective applicants to display information for all major developments on a website for a specified period, during the pre-application phase.

A link to the website would be included on the newspaper notice, and it would display information on the proposal and drawings outlining graphical illustrations of the development.

The website would also have the facility to accept comments and feedback online and would provide information on how to contact the applicant in relation to queries. 6 It is anticipated that the date of the in-person public event would coincide with the live website.

This would enable members of the public to view and consider the proposals online, with the option of attending the public event and engaging with the applicant to provide comments in person. With both options, the council or Department can still request further consultation with the community, where they deem it necessary to do so.