By Caolan McCusker, Brown O’Connor Communications
Politics in Northern Ireland this year has been marked by the same running theme as 2022 –instability. As the first round of all-party talks since the Summer continues this week, DUP Leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson MP has said his party is “approaching the time” for a decision on a return to Stormont. A financial deal is on the table, and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak MP stands ready to legislate to “protect” Northern Ireland’s place in the UK internal market, however the uncertainty continues. The DUP, which has not put any timescale against its next move, polled at a comfortable 28% in the Autumn poll by LucidTalk, and is therefore not under any electoral pressure for a Stormont return.
2024 looks set to be a bumper year for elections, with widespread speculation that the next UK general election will take place in May 2024. Rumours are also circulating that the next Irish general election could be called before the deadline of March 2025, and the US Presidential election is set to take place in November 2024.
Westminster
Looking ahead to the upcoming Westminster election, it is important to note the significance of Northern Ireland’s 18 seats – NI political parties have been kingmakers in hung parliaments in the past.
The latest YouGov poll on voting intentions shows an almost 20% lead for Labour at 44%, compared to just 25% for Conservatives. The political odds of a Labour Majority at the next general election are placed by PaddyPower at 2/9, compared to 9/1 odds for the Conservatives – most people’s money would be on Starmer. Despite public fatigue with the Conservative government, which has been in charge for thirteen years, the party is utilising every weapon in their policy arsenal ahead of the election, from cutting taxes to their controversial Rwanda asylum plan. This immigration policy brings with it the potential for major implications for Northern Ireland – if the UK leaves the European Convention on Human Rights to achieve this policy due to a possible legal challenge from Strasbourg, some NI political parties argue this would breach the Good Friday Agreement, of which large parts of the deal are underpinned by the ECHR. A huge policy change for NI to potentially happen next year.
Looking South
Turning to the Republic of Ireland, Sinn Féin is enjoying its continuing wave of support ahead of the next general election. It remains Ireland’s most popular party at 29% in a recent Red C poll, comfortably ahead of its closest rivals Fine Gael on 20%. However, due to the proportional representation system in the Republic, it would be nearly impossible for Sinn Féin to achieve a majority of seats on its own – they will need political friends to form a coalition, which they are in short supply of. Therefore, the make-up of the next government is certainly not set in stone. If Sinn Féin was to form a government however, with Michelle O’Neill MLA as First Minister-designate, it would represent one party’s majority political control of the Island of Ireland, bringing with it unprecedented change.
1600 Pennsylvania Ave
The US Presidential race looks set to be a repeat of 2020, with Democratic incumbent Joe Biden likely to face former Republican President Donald Trump. Polls place both candidates neck and neck a year out from the election. President Biden demonstrated a clear commitment to the advancement of Northern Ireland’s economy through his visit earlier this year, and through the appointment of political heavy-weight Joe Kennedy III as Special Envoy. With US investment playing a key role in the NI economy, strong political relationships with the US remain crucial.
The economic outlook may be the major decider in these elections – and 2023 has been a year plagued by inflation, rising interest rates, and teetering on the edge of a recession. The outlook for 2024 remains bleak, with the OECD predicting UK growth to remain low and core inflation to linger at 3.8%. This will likely hurt the chances of incumbent governments and strengthen the chances of their challengers whose supporters seek change.
With all of this political activity comes the crucial need for preparation on the part of businesses.