Today is the day we expect to see the papers and text on which the DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson sold his party the road to restoration.
The information contained within is expected to be faithfully swallowed by many, but ripped asunder by others. The next 24-48 hours will not be sweetness and light for the senior leadership of the party with the ‘unionist voice’ expected to make itself heard.
The Stormont doomsday clock - already set at 90 seconds to disaster - will start to tick louder as the race is now on to get the Assembly back up and running again. There is a fear it could unravel quicker than it takes to strap a wire tap to your chest.
The perceived wisdom is that Saturday will be the day that the Assembly is recalled. The first item of business is the election of the Speaker. Candidates will be nominated by other Members of the Assembly and require cross-community support in order to be confirmed. It would be a surprise if there is not a little pre-planned choreography on Friday evening / Saturday morning between the main parties.
Patsy McGlone MLA and Mike Nesbitt MLA are some historic contenders for the role of Speaker, attempting previously to be elected. At the most recent sitting of the Assembly on January 17, the UUP and SDLP both nominated them respectively, however, neither received cross-community support. The latest craic is that former DUP leader (for a wet weekend) and Minister, Edwin Poots MLA, might be nominated.
Following the election of the Speaker and Deputy Speakers, the election of First and Deputy First Ministers must take place, followed by the selection of Junior Ministers. It’s obvious who will take up the FM role, but it’s a toss-up between Emma Little Pengelly MLA and Gordon Lyons MLA for the Deputy FM role (ok, ok, Joint First Minister). If Lyons doesn’t make the cut at the top of the Executive, it’s highly likely he will be nominated for the role of Finance Minister. Conor Murphy will likely take up the helm at the Department for the Economy.
The SDLP will form the official opposition and will not be part of an Executive. It is likely that Matthew O’Toole MLA will remain as Leader of the Opposition. The big question will be if the Ulster Unionist Party decide to do the same – would that move represent a lack of ambition for the likes of Steve Aiken MLA or does he slot back in as a good high profile Committee Chair?
Chatter for some time has been that the Alliance Party might opt for the Department for Infrastructure with North Down MLA Andrew Muir MLA putting the hand up for that role - he himself coming from a professional background in transport.
It is worth keeping an eye on the Justice ministerial position. There has been speculation that it may be up for taking from another party (thrown back into the d’Hondt pot), however, it may still be likely that the role will be re-allocated back to the Alliance party, given their ‘other’ Assembly designation. Naomi Long would likely be nominated to take up the role again.
The reality is no one truly knows where the Department of Health will come in the pecking order – does the DUP lean into it and put former First Minister, Paul Givan MLA, in a command role to sort the show out, or does it get a sick note and pushed right down to the very last pick as the Ambulance case?
What does Sinn Fein do with the capable duo of Caoimhe Archibald MLA and Linda Dillon MLA with other Ministerial roles to fill (Agriculture or Communities) and a Junior Minister opening at the Executive Office.
Following this will be the appointment of the Committee Chairs, deputy Chairs and memberships before the formal first sitting of the Assembly which, if all goes according to the proposed timetable, will be Monday or Tuesday of next week – timetabling of the first Plenary session of the Assembly (and Order of Business determined by the Business Committee) and will see the first meeting of the newly formed Executive.
But first we need to get a decent tune out of a couple of Statutory Instruments in Westminster in the next few days…