Jacinda Ardern. Nicola Sturgeon. Now, Leo Varadkar has announced his intention to resign as Irish Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader without seemingly any prior warning. The surprise was universal, with members of his own party and partners in government Fianna Fáil only being told the evening before of his decision. Only last week was Leo Varadkar in Washington, D.C. for the annual St. Patrick’s celebrations and meetings with U.S. President Joe Biden. So why is he resigning?
Yet when we drill down into why Mr Varadkar may have resigned, it should not have come as much of a surprise. The two recent referenda defeats for the government on wording changes to the constitution may have been the final nail in the coffin for a leader who seemed to be growing tired of the job. There has been a burgeoning sense within the party that it was destined to lose ground at the next General Election, due before February 2025. Potential acceptance of this fate has been shown through the near record 30% of sitting Fine Gael TDs who have already announced that they will not be re-standing when the country goes to the polls. A more imminent threat to his leadership was on the horizon in the form of the upcoming local elections, where Fine Gael had been expected to suffer heavy losses. Is it the case then that Leo jumped before he was pushed?
Reaction to Varadkar’s resignation has come as quick as the announcement itself. Unionist politicians have offered a more critical view, with some brandishing the Taoiseach as responsible for the controversial Northern Ireland Protocol. Others have been more kind to Varadkar, with SDLP Leader Colum Eastwood MP saying that he has symbolised the “huge change” in Irish society over the last number of decades and brought Ireland through many significant challenges including Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic. In the Republic, leader of Sinn Féin and the official Opposition Mary Lou McDonald has said that the government have “run out of road” and so called for a general election to be held.
Politics is a tough business and whilst yesterday was Varadkar’s day, today all eyes have turned to his potential successor. The leader is expected to be officially in place by the party’s Ard Fheis on 6 April, to be confirmed by the Dáil as Taoiseach on 9 April. Simon Harris, the Minister for Further and Higher Education, is widely tipped to be the next leader of the party and Taoiseach. Whilst it is understood that Fine Gael’s Party Executive have expressed a clear view that a leadership contest would be healthy for the party, whether another candidate with a credible level of support exists remains to be seen. As it currently stands, Harris has received a significant and virtually unassailable number of endorsements from his fellow TDs, Senators, and MEPs and looks set to be crowned without a leadership contest taking place. Another election in a year of many has potentially just been avoided...