Brown O'Connor Communications Local Government Election Briefing Series 2023: Newry, Mourne and Down District Council

KEY POINTS 

• The biggest nationalist majority of any council in Northern Ireland.

• Sinn Féin pulled ahead of the SDLP to become the largest party on the council in 2019. 

• Just one of two councils where the UUP were bigger than the DUP after the last election (though defections subsequently reversed that position).

ABOUT THE COUNCIL AREA

The new Newry, Mourne and Down District Council replaced the former Down District and Newry and Mourne District Councils, with the addition of a small corner of the old Banbridge District Council. It’s the third largest council in terms of population and electorate; fourth largest in terms of geographic area. The council hugs the coastline, taking in Strangford, Newcastle, Kilkeel and Rostrevor, and stretching inland from Saintfield to Crossmaglen, and includes the town of Downpatrick and city of Newry. A total of 41 councillors are elected.

PREVIOUS ELECTION

• Sinn Féin gained two seats to become the largest party at the last election.

• The SDLP lost three seats and their share of the vote fell by seven percentage points.

• Alliance more than tripled their vote but failed to gain any extra seats. 

• The UUP overtook the DUP as the largest Unionist party (though defections have since reversed that position).

SINCE 2019

• Harry Harvey (DUP) and Liz Kimmins (Sinn Féin) were co-opted to the NI Assembly. 

• Patrick Brown (Alliance) and Cathy Mason (Sinn Féin) were elected to the NI Assembly.

• One councillor died during the last council term, another shifted DEA, and a handful resigned and were replaced.

• Two DUP councillors briefly resigned from the party and sat as independents for three months before re-joining their old party.

• Harold McKee left the UUP and joined the TUV a fortnight later. 

• Independent Cadogan Enright joined the Alliance Party last summer. 

• UUP councillor Alan Lewis and independent Henry Reilly joined the DUP last summer.

COMMENTARY

The most solidly nationalist council in Northern Ireland was a real dog fight at the last election between the SDLP and Sinn Féin for dominance. The SDLP will be running a defensive operation this year, trying to hold territory from Sinn Féin and Alliance inroads in DEAs such as Downpatrick, Newry and Crotlieve. Sinn Féin is seeking to extend its lead by targeting to steal one of the SDLP’s three seats in Downpatrick, and is hopeful to gain one in Newry now that poll-topping independent Gavin Malone is not defending his seat.

Malone attracted 1.6 quotas of first preference votes in 2019 and analysis of the transfer of his surplus would suggest that Sinn Féin (around 40% second preferences), SDLP (35%) and Alliance (23%) will benefit from his absence in this poll if his supporters come out to vote. The Newry count will be one to watch as the final two seats are hard to predict between Sinn Féin, SDLP and Alliance (who could do well if more UUP voters transferred to them than back in 2019).

Within unionism, shifts in party allegiance will be tested at the ballot box.

Harold McKee and Henry Reilly are no strangers on the ballot paper for The Mournes DEA. Briefly UUP MLA for South Down, Harold McKee later defected to the TUV and this year could become the party’s first candidate to be successfully elected onto this council. For more than a decade, Henry Reilly was a UUP candidate in the old The Mournes DEA before topping the poll as a UKIP candidate in 2011 and 2014. Reilly joined the TUV for a year (Nov 2015–Nov 2016) and was comfortably elected as an independent in 2019. He’s now standing as the DUP candidate, his fifth affiliation in the area.

Unionism attracted 3.2 quotas of first preference votes in The Mournes at the last election and picked up three seats. The UUP are running Lloyd Douglas to regain this seat and it will be a critical battle for the party as their status as the largest unionist party on the council depends on his success. 

Changes in affiliation may feature in results elsewhere in the council. Formerly a Green candidate, Cadogan Enright was elected as an independent in Downpatrick in 2014 and 2019. Having joined Alliance last year, Enright is running for his new party and could become their first elected councillor in Downpatrick. Newry is another target for the party, while Rowallane could come into play if there is a big swing away from the SDLP and UUP. 

Slieve Gullion’s count was over in 2019 after just four stages. A wider field (up from 10 to 13) will slow down the process. Rowallane may be quickest to complete this year with just nine candidates chasing five seats.

Crotlieve DEA ultimately required nine stages to elect its six councillors from a field of 13 candidates. With 15 on the ballot this year, it could be a cumbersome DEA to complete.

Young athletes awarded over £75k in Better Bursaries and Cash Awards

GLL Sport Foundation award recipients Matthew Cheung (Badminton – current National Number One), Fionnuala Turner (Netball) and Darius Roohi (Futsal). 

Some 124 young sporting stars in Belfast have been awarded bursaries worth over £75,000 by social enterprise GLL to help them pursue their sporting ambitions.

At an awards ceremony in Belfast City Hall, some of the city’s most promising young talent received the bursaries in what is the 15th year of the GLL Sport Foundation awards.

Athletes included Commonwealth Gold and Olympic Bronze medalist Aidan Walsh who is currently ranked number one nationally, and eighth in the world. Other supported athletes include: 

• Michaela Walsh – Boxing (World ranking no.4 / National ranking no.1)

• John Paul Hale – Boxing (World ranking no. 34 / National ranking no.1)

• Hannah McGugan – Squash (World ranking no.254 / National ranking no.2)

• Matthew Cheung – Badminton (National ranking no.1)

The GLL Sport Foundation (GSF) is the largest independent athlete support programme in the UK and supports gifted young athletes, many of whom rely on these bursaries alone to compete at national and international levels.

Local recipients in Belfast this year include 124 individuals, 74% of whom receive no other central funding towards their sporting journey and rely heavily on the support to meet the costs of competing. Of this, 60 recipients are aged under 21 while 25 are aged under 16.

Awarded in partnership with the Mary Peters Trust, athletes supported by the GSF this year received financial grants of up to £1,000 as well as training support, access to all GLL facilities including Better gyms, and leisure centre membership. The access to cutting edge facilities and specialist equipment means the young athletes can meet their training commitments at some of the best gyms in the country.

The GSF is delivered in Belfast by GLL, the social enterprise which runs the 15 ‘Better’ leisure centres across the city. Since launching in Belfast in 2015, the GSF has provided over 773 awards worth over £500,000. Previous GSF supported athletes include Paralympian Michael McKillop, Irish Olympic marathon runner and winner of the 40th Belfast City Marathon 2022 Paul Pollock, and Irish Hockey International Shirley McCay.

In its 15 years, the GLL Sport Foundation (GSF) has been at the forefront of developing local young athletic talent with an impressive 25,000 awards totaling £14m made across the UK since 2008.

Matthew Cheung (Badminton – current National Number One); GLL Regional Director Tony Wallace; Fionnuala Turner (Netball); GLL Regional Business Manager Jonathan Michael and Darius Roohi (Futsal).

GSF supported Boxer and Olympic bronze medalist Aidan Walsh said:

“The support provided by GLL in helping me pursue my dreams is something I will always be grateful for, and it has undoubtedly made a difference to me in my own career. Access to great training facilities makes a huge difference - having the right equipment and gyms to train in helps me and others to compete at a world-class level. The support I’ve received from GLL is invaluable, supporting me as a young boxer right through to winning bronze at the Olympics. I’ve no doubt there are lots of future Olympians who will be helped on their journey with this support.”

Regional Business Manager at GLL Jonathan Michael said:

“There is nothing more rewarding to us than being able to support young athletes on every step of their sporting journeys and it is fantastic to be able to recognise their talent and reward their efforts. As well as being hugely talented, all of this year’s athletes demonstrate the highest commitment to their chosen sport, through the long, grueling hours they train, to the achievements they make locally, nationally and internationally. These stories drive and inspire us, and they are an excellent example to other young people coming behind them.”

Local Government Election Briefing Series 2023: Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon Borough Council

KEY POINTS 

• Best vote share in a DEA for the UUP anywhere in Northern Ireland in 2019. 

• DUP, Sinn Féin and UUP all within one seat of each other. 

• Alliance secured representation (three seats) on the council for the first time in 2019. 

ABOUT THE COUNCIL AREA

The Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon Borough Council merged the old Armagh City & District Council, Banbridge District Council and Craigavon Borough Council, with the exception of the Ballyward ward (Banbridge), and the addition of the Charlemont ward (Dungannon). The new council has by far the largest electorate of any of the 40 or 41 seat councils outside Belfast. 

PREVIOUS ELECTION

• The DUP remained the dominant party on council in 2019 despite dropping to 11 seats. 

• Sinn Féin moved into second place with 22.0% share of the vote and 10 councillors elected.

• While their overall vote share (21.6%) and seat tally (10) was down across the council, three UUP councillors were elected in Banbridge DEA with a massive 36.1% of the vote, their best result in any district across Northern Ireland.

• Alliance more than doubled their vote to 7.4% with three councillors elected for the first time.

SINCE 2019

• Paul Rankin (DUP) was co-opted to the Assembly in February 2022 but was co-opted back onto council after he failed to hold the seat in the May 2022 Assembly election.

• Eóin Tennyson (Alliance) was elected to the Assembly in May 2022. 

• Darryn Causby resigned from the DUP in the wake of Edwin Poots standing down as party leader in June 2021, served as an independent before re-joining the party in November 2021, and then resigned as a councillor and was replaced in November 2022.

• One councillor died and a number of others resigned and were replaced during the council term. 

COMMENTARY 

This will be an interesting council area to watch, not just to see the internal battle within unionism, but also to see how unionism is performing overall. The DUP are targeting gains at the expense of the UUP with seats in Armagh and Cusher the most vulnerable. Unionism holds a narrow majority on this council and a small swing to Sinn Féin and Alliance could see the pro-union parties lose control of the council for the first time. 

Independent councillor Paul Berry is once again seeking re-election in Cusher and is safely sitting just north of a quota of first preferences. Keith Radcliffe ran for the TUV in Newry & Armagh at the last Assembly election, polling a credible 5,407 first preference votes. His entry onto the Cusher ballot paper will further split the unionist vote (a solid 73% of first preferences in 2019) and make the final seat (won by the UUP with a margin of just 1.84 votes in 2019) a three-way contest between DUP, TUV and UUP.

Every vote counts in Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon. The final seat was won with fewer than 50 votes in four of the council DEAs at the last election. Despite starting with 0.9 of a quota of first preference votes, the DUP lost out to Sinn Féin in Armagh by 9.7 votes.

Alliance will want to capitalise on their strong showing at the last Assembly election and increase their seat count. On paper, Craigavon DEA should be a target for growth, although former Alliance candidate Jackie Coade is now standing for the SDLP in Craigavon (replacing Thomas Larkham who is stepping down at this election). This will be an interesting battle between the two parties and may reflect each party’s wider fortunes at the ballot box. It may also be a quick battle with only eight candidates standing for five seats!

Local Government Election Briefing Series 2023: Antrim and Newtownabbey Borough Council

KEY POINTS

• Battle between UUP and Alliance for second place.

• Unionism lost six seats in 2019 and could lose overall majority in 2023.

• Increasingly diverse council with competition from Sinn Féin and Greens. 

• Third lowest turnout in Northern Ireland (49.1%).

ABOUT THE COUNCIL AREA

Under the reform of local government, the borough councils of Antrim and Newtownabbey were merged into the new Antrim and Newtownabbey Borough Council. The council includes the towns of Antrim and Ballyclare, wrapping around the north eastern corner of Lough Neagh, and stretching from Toome to Ballynure, and from Crumlin across to Glengormley and the Belfast loughshore at Jordanstown.

PREVIOUS ELECTION

• Gains for Alliance (3) and Sinn Féin (2) in 2019.

• TUV lost both their councillors at last election.

• Green Party narrowly missed out on a seat in Glengormley Urban. 

• A new independent easily won a seat in Ballyclare.

SINCE 2019

• Danny Kinahan resigned and was replaced following his appointment as NI Veterans Commissioner.

• The DUP’s Dean McCullough was co-opted onto Belfast City Council.

• Phillip Brett was elected to the Northern Ireland Assembly.

• Two councillors died, and a number of other councillors resigned and were replaced during the term.

COMMENTARY

2019 was a bad overall election for unionist parties in this council area with the DUP, UUP and TUV dropping six seats between them. In terms of dominance, the DUP remained the largest party with 14 councillors, followed by the UUP (9).

However, Alliance is in contention to overtake the UUP at this election. It currently holds seven seats and even a small swing would make them competitive for another two or three (Ballyclare, a second in Antrim and maybe even Glengormley Urban). Alliance success is likely to mean there is no longer a unionist majority on the council.

Another party targeting a seat in Glengormley Urban will be the Green Party, who finished just 68 votes behind Sinn Féin at the last election. TUV councillor for Ballyclare, David Arthurs, ran as an independent in 2019 but failed to be reelected. TUV stalwart Mel Lucas is on the ballot this year hoping to win it back.

Sinn Féin has grown in confidence in this council area with gains in 2019 which saw them overtake the SDLP as the largest nationalist party. They currently hold five seats to the SDLP’s four and will be challenging for wins in Antrim and Dunsilly.

Independent candidate Michael Stewart – behind the “Love Ballyclare” Facebook page – easily won a seat with more than a quota of first preference votes in 2019. This was one of the more noteworthy independent gains at the last election, and he’s likely to be competitive again in the upcoming poll.

Local Government Election Briefing Series 2023: Mid and East Antrim Borough Council

KEY POINTS 

• Biggest unionist majority in Northern Ireland with the DUP holding more than a third of seats.

• Best performing council for the TUV.

• Just three of the forty councillors are from nationalist parties.

• Second lowest turnout in Northern Ireland in 2019 (48.1%).

• Bannside DEA recorded the lowest winning margin for a seat anywhere in NI in 2019 (1.06 votes).

ABOUT THE COUNCIL AREA

The new Mid and East Antrim Borough Council was formed from the old Ballymena, Carrickfergus and Larne Borough Councils. It’s the second smallest council in terms of population and registered electorate. Since late 2021, the MEA Council has been in the media spotlight over a number of issues. Its Chief Executive was suspended and then retired, and a series of interim appointments have since filled the role.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

• DUP lost a seat but remained the largest party.

• TUV held their total number of seats (5).

• Alliance more than doubled their seats in 2019 to capture seven and lost out on an eighth seat in Bannside by just 1.06 votes in the final stage of the count.

• Sinn Féin dropped from three to two seats.

• Second lowest turnout (48.1%) of NI councils in 2019.

SINCE 2019

• Alliance and the UUP each had a councillor who resigned and was replaced early in the council term.

• John McDermott defected from the UUP to the DUP.

• Two DUP councillors faced separate suspensions by the NI Local Government Commissioner for Standards after complaints about social media posts.

• Alliance councillors Danny Donnelly and Patricia O’Lynn were elected to the Northern Ireland Assembly.

COMMENTARY

This council has the biggest unionist majority in Northern Ireland, with two thirds of seats and more than two thirds of the first preference votes. The DUP have always been the largest party on this council and have traditionally dominated the Assembly constituencies that this council area covers.

The second largest party by vote share is also within the unionist family: the UUP have seven councillors but are being strongly challenged for this spot by Alliance who also hold seven seats. Alliance will be hoping that Assembly election gains in North Antrim and East Antrim constituencies filter down and lead to gains at council level. Bannside is the only DEA in which they don’t have a councillor, having lost out by 1.06 votes to Sinn Féin in 2019.

For the TUV, MEA is fertile ground and the only council area where the party polls above 10% of the vote. Moreover, it has the only DEAs where the party gained a seat (Braid) and where it got the most votes of any party (Bannside). Despite this strength the party did lose ground in parts of the council and will be hoping the recent political debates about the Protocol, together with the turmoil around the governance of the MEA council, will help it gain ground. 

Within nationalism, the picture is more static with just three councillors between Sinn Féin and the SDLP. Sinn Féin lost a seat in 2019 (to Alliance) and will be hoping to regain some lost ground. The SDLP only ran one candidate in 2019: Eugene Reid retained Declan O’Loan’s old seat in Ballymena. This year, the party is also running a candidate in Bannside.

In 2019, just four stages were needed to elect five councillors for the Knockagh DEA. It’s likely to be the fastest count again at this election. Ballymena had 14 candidates chasing seven seats in 2019. This year, there are just nine in the race.

Baker Tilly Mooney Moore appoints Brian Lenehan as HR Consultant

Donal Laverty, Consulting Partner, Baker Tilly Mooney Moore and Brian Lenehan, HR Consultant, Baker Tilly Mooney Moore.

Accountancy and advisory practice Baker Tilly Mooney Moore has announced the appointment of Brian Lenehan as HR Consultant.

He joins the Belfast firm’s consulting team, which provides advice across the public, private and third sectors on organisational design and development, executive and people development, systems and process improvement, and organisational culture and behaviour.

Brian brings broad experience across multiple industries including food production, the tourism sector and aviation.

Most recently, he worked as a People Advisor with Flybe and has held positions with Tourism Northern Ireland and Moy Park. Brian studied Human Resource Management at Queen’s University Belfast and has focused on recruitment support, HR policy and procedure development and employee training throughout his career.

Brian’s appointment to the Baker Tilly Mooney Moore consulting department follows the appointment of Ryan Connor as Senior Management Consultant in June 2022.

Baker Tilly Mooney Moore works across Audit & Assurance, Business Services, Consulting, Taxation and Restructuring & Insolvency.

Brian Lenehan, HR Consultant, Baker Tilly Mooney Moore.

Consulting Partner at Baker Tilly Mooney Moore Donal Laverty said:

“It is a pleasure to welcome Brian to the Consulting team at Baker Tilly Mooney Moore. Brian joins us at a busy but interesting time as businesses get to grips with the tight employment market, and continue to adapt to the ever-changing world of work. With experience working with large organisations in both the private and public sectors, Brian will add value to our consulting services at Baker Tilly Mooney Moore and I wish him every success going forward.”

New HR Consultant at Baker Tilly Mooney Moore Brian Lenehan added:

“I am thrilled to take up the position of HR Consultant at Baker Tilly Mooney Moore. In my career so far, I have been involved in the people development strategies of multiple large businesses and organisations and I look forward to putting this experience to use at a practice level with a range of interesting clients at Baker Tilly Mooney Moore.” 

Local Government Election Briefing Series 2023: Mid Ulster District Council

KEY POINTS

• Sinn Féin’s best performing council area in Northern Ireland.

• DUP had the biggest swing toward them (5.6 percentage points) of all councils at the last election.

• Turnout (58.9% in 2019) tends to be well above  Northern Ireland average.

• Currently the only council without an Alliance representative.

ABOUT THE COUNCIL AREA

The Mid Ulster District Council stretches along the western shore of Lough Neagh, covering the areas of the former Cookstown, Magherafelt and Dungannon District Councils (with the exception of the Charlemont ward which shifted into the new Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon Borough Council). According to the 2021 census, it’s the only council area where women outnumber men. It has the highest proportion of under 16s (none of whom can vote in this election!) and the second lowest proportion of over 65s of any council area. 

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

• Sinn Féin are the largest party on this council electing 17 councillors and taking 39.8% of the first preference vote.

• Mid Ulster is the only council area where the SDLP vote rose in 2019, with their share increasing from 13.6% to 14.4%.

• It’s a very stable council, with only two seats changing across the entire council at the last election.

Since 2019

• Denise Mullen defected from the SDLP to Aontú in July 2019.

• Another two councillors resigned and were replaced by co-option.

COMMENTARY

Mid Ulster District Council is a Sinn Féin stronghold taking in the heartland of their vice president, Michelle O’Neill. The party has always been the largest in this council area, holding the greatest number of first preferences in five out of the seven District Electoral Areas.

This is the only council area where Alliance do not have a sitting councillor. Nominating candidates in just two DEAs in 2019, they picked up a mere 1.2% share of the vote in 2019 (narrowly behind Aontú’s 1.4% share) making Mid Ulster their weakest council area. This year, candidates are running in five DEAs and the transfer-friendly party have an outside chance at picking up a last seat if they survive exclusions in early stages of the count. (The final seat in these five DEAs was won/lost by an average margin of 200 votes in 2019.)

The second place party is the DUP with nine councillors, up one from 2014 with a swing to them of 5.6 percentage points (against the NI-wide trend). Half of the UUP’s six councillors were last to be elected in their DEAs making those seats vulnerable to any further swing within unionism or voters opting for Alliance candidates not previously available on the ballot paper.

Watch out for a tough three-way battle for the final seat in Dungannon between Denise Mullen (who defected to Aontú less than three months into her mandate) up against the SDLP’s new candidate Karol McQuade and Sinn Féin’s Deirdre Varsani (who missed out by a shade under 220 votes last time). The seat will be a real bellwether as to how each of these parties perform in this election.

Clogher Valley has traditionally elected six councillors from a pool of seven candidates. That pattern will be broken in May 2023 with Independent Kevin McElvogue making it an eight-way race.

We're Hiring: Client Manager - Brown O'Connor Communications

ROLE: CLIENT MANAGER

Experience: Min 3+ years

Area: Public Affairs & Strategic Communications

Salary: Highly Competitive - On request to hello@brownoconnor.com

Based: Adelaide Street, Belfast City Centre

The Person

Brown O’Connor Communications is seeking a talented and ambitious Client Manager to join the team.

This is an exciting and demanding role within a leading consultancy and requires a resilient individual with demonstrable client management and leadership ability.

You may be already working in public affairs or corporate communications in an agency; as an in-house communications manager; in politics; or as journalist.

You will have a deep professional interest in business, the media and politics and have a detailed understanding of the role that media relations, public affairs, and stakeholder relations plays.

Client Manager Role Specification

Strategic Counsel

Proven client handling skills with experience in managing large accounts, providing proactive strategic advice and great ideas.

Ability to manage a high level of client interaction and be able to design and implement strategies.

Day to Day Delivery

Proven ability to work in a fast paced, often pressurised, outcome orientated environment.

Manage political lobbying campaigns securing policy change, legislative change and the smooth running of political engagement programmes.

Manage public awareness campaigns integrating various methods to create significant public interest.

Write strong editorial content on behalf of clients including press releases, opinion/platform pieces and blogs and ensure coverage across a range of media outlets.

Manage an entire range of suppliers such as photographers, graphic designers, videographers, economists and sectoral experts integral to the successful delivery of client activity campaigns.

Be able to create engaging social media content across multiple platforms.

Forward plan to ensure smooth running of client campaigns on time, and within budget.

New Business Development

Take a leading role in new business development and organic growth opportunities alongside company directors and be comfortable in pitching and proposal development.

Supporting successful tender writing from start to submission.

Experience in identifying and converting new business opportunities.

People Management

Line management duties with wider members of team.

Understanding the requirement to work with efficiency and profitably.

Manage team members on client accounts to ensure work is carried out successfully and within allocated budgets.

Work as a team player with Brown O’Connor colleagues to ensure success across client accounts.

Deliver outcomes for clients and work to raise their profile in the media and with key stakeholders in a positive way.

Criteria

3+ years working in the areas of Public Affairs and/or Corporate or Strategic Communications or within a communications environment (Agency experience preferred).

Third Level Degree or equivalent in the preferred areas of Communications, Law, Politics, Business, Social Science or Humanities.  

Possess strong writing and editing skills with ability to write attention-grabbing media material, client correspondence and reports.

An excellent communicator both written and oral.

Commercially and politically aware.

Outstanding organisational skills and ability to manage multiple projects at the same time.

Strong initiative, leadership skills and work ethic.

Ability to hustle to make things happen.

Willingness to work evenings and weekends as required by client and other activity. 

Clean driving licence and access to a car.

Desirable Criteria

Experience in working in a similar communications role in the Republic of Ireland.

How to Apply

To apply in strict confidence, please send your detailed CV, covering email and the completed response to the set question below, by email, to Brown O’Connor Communications at hello@brownoconnor.com by 5pm Wednesday 31st May  2023.

QUESTION: Please outline, with examples, how you meet the Criteria as outlined in the Job Specification (Word Limit 300).

Please state your name and ‘Brown O’Connor Client Manager 2023’ in the subject line.

Application Process

Initial shortlisting

Two stage interview

Local Government Election Briefing Series 2023: Causeway Coast and Glens Borough Council

KEY POINTS

• The council chamber has a majority of Unionist councillors

• The only council outside of Belfast to elect a PUP councillor 

• A rare region where both the DUP and Sinn Féin improved their vote share and their seat tally in 2019

ABOUT THE COUNCIL AREA

This sprawling council stretches all the way from Greysteel in the west to the Glens of Antrim and Rathlin in the east. The new Causeway Coast and Glens District Council merged together four predecessor Councils: Moyle District Council and the borough councils of Ballymoney, Coleraine and Limavady. It’s the second largest council by geographic area, and the second least densely populated (72 people per square kilometre) and has the third fewest electorate (according to the April register).

PREVIOUS ELECTION

• DUP increased their vote share by 3.4 percentage points and added three to their seat tally in 2019

• Sinn Féin increased their vote share by 2.3 percentage points and gained two seats

• Progressive Unionist Party retained their single seat on the council and doubled their vote

• UUP’s share of the vote dropped and they lost three seats

• TUV performance halved at the ballot box and the party lost all three councillors

• Every woman on the ballot paper for Ballymoney, Limavady and The Glens DEAs was elected in 2019

SINCE 2019

• Five councillors left their parties and remained on council as independents: William McCandless (formerly UUP), Stephanie Quigley (SDLP), Angela Mulhooland (SDLP), James Corkell (DUP) and Adrian McQuillan (DUP)

• Alan Robinson was elected to the Northern Ireland Assembly in May 2022

• A Sinn Féin councillor was expelled from the party and replaced

• Popular independent councillor (Ambrose Laverty) who topped the poll in May 2019 resigned and was replaced

• Former minister and MLA Mervyn Storey (DUP) joined the council last summer after the death of the John Finlay

COMMENTARY

Politically Causeway Coast and Glens bucked the overall trend at the last election: the only council with a swing towards the DUP and Sinn Féin both in terms of vote share and seats won. The protest vote that was felt in other places was absent in this council area.

The big losers in 2019 were the TUV who suffered a collapse in their vote (dropping from 10.4% to 4.3%) and lost all three of their council seats. Despite this being an area of continued TUV support in subsequent elections, the party is only running four candidates across the seven DEAs. A two-percentage point drop in share resulted in the UUP netting just seven seats at the last election, a reduction of three.

The SDLP’s vote share also dropped in 2019. Defending six seats in 2019, the party successfully ran six candidates. However, three were the last to be elected in their DEA and squeezed in with fewer than 160 votes. Only two candidates from 2019 is running again for the party at this election with two former SDLP councillors having left the party during the council term. (One is standing for re-election as an independent.) Any swing away from the SDLP in this election will result in a sharp loss of seats for the party and may - due to the electoral mechanics in the DEAs - benefit unionist rather than other nationalist candidates.

Alliance also did well in 2019 and are targeting gains. They currently have two councillors, although sitting councillor Chris McCaw (who nearly won an Assembly seat in 2022) is standing down. A small swing would make Alliance competitive in Ballymoney and Limavady DEAs and perhaps pick up a second seat in Causeway.

Causeway Coast and Glens is the PUP’s best performing council area in terms of vote share. Russell Watton topped the poll in Coleraine DEA in 2014 and 2019 and may well be the party’s only councillor elected at this election.

Bann DEA has 12 candidates chasing just five seats (up from 10 in 2019) which will make this a very slow count.

Local Government Election Briefing Series 2023: Derry City and Strabane District Council

KEY POINTS

●       Best performing council for the SDLP (25.5% share of first preference vote) and People Before Profit (5.9% share).

●       Only council to elect an Aontú councillor in 2019.

●       Only council where two parties are joint biggest (Sinn Féin and SDLP both on 11 seats each).  

ABOUT THE COUNCIL AREA

While an earlier proposal would have fashioned a much larger North West regional council encompassing Magherafelt and parts of Limavady, the local government reform ended up merging the former Derry City Council and Strabane District Council to create the new 40-seat council. Northern Ireland can be divided into 890 ‘super output areas’ and these can be ranked in terms of multiple deprivations. 20 of the 100 most deprived SOAs in Northern Ireland fall within Derry and Strabane, covering 25% of the council’s population.

PREVIOUS ELECTIONS

●       Sinn Féin suffered the biggest swing away from the party (6.0 percentage points) of any council at the last election.

●       Independent candidates took 12.6% of the vote (the highest in Northern Ireland).

●       Alliance gained their first two seats on the council in 2019.

●       People Before Profit ran four candidates and got two elected.

SINCE 2019

●       There were numerous resignations and co-options during the last council term.

●       Cara Hunter and Sinead McLaughlin were co-opted into the Northern Ireland Assembly during 2020.

●       Aontú’s Anne McClockey resigned from the council in November 2020.

●       People Before Profit’s Eamonn McCann resigned from council in March 2021.

●       Graham Warke resigned from the DUP to sit as an independent in June 2022.

●       Derek Hussey was elected as a UUP councillor, was suspended from council for 15 months (during this period he resigned, a replacement was co-opted and then resigned to allow Hussey to return), was later suspended from the UUP and sat as an independent, but ultimately finished the term as a UUP councillor.

COMMENTARY

The SDLP and Sinn Féin currently have an equal number of councillors and are within a few percentage points of each other in the popular vote. This election will be quite a battle with Sinn Féin wanting to regain some of the seats they lost in 2019, and the SDLP seeking to consolidate their strong showing at other recent elections.

Four independent councillors were elected to Derry and Strabane District Council in 2019. Gary Donnelly topped the poll in The Moor and is seeking re-election. Sean Carr (formerly SDLP councillor in The Moor and latterly independent in Foyleside) pushed past Sinn Féin to win the final seat in his DEA by less than 20 votes. Carr is not standing this year opening up the possibility for an SDLP or Sinn Féin steal.

Another interesting dynamic is the impact of People Before Profit and Aontú. Both parties benefited from well-known local personalities Eamonn McCann and Anne McCloskey, both of whom subsequently stepped down from the council and are not running in May 2023.

The Faughan DEA sees two former DUP councillors running under different flags. Last year Ryan McCready (now UUP) came close to winning an Assembly seat from the DUP. Graham Warke quit his old party on the day his term as Mayor finished. He’s standing in this election as an independent. The pair are up against two new DUP candidates with the party particularly keen to win back these seats given the lack of fertile ground for gains elsewhere.

Alliance will be looking to build on their two-seat tally from 2019 and see the effect of the surge witnessed in more recent elections. Sperrin is a target. However, their share of the vote would need to double or triple in most of the other DEAs for them to become competitive to win additional seats.