KEY POINTS
Best vote share in a DEA for the UUP anywhere in Northern Ireland in 2019.
DUP, Sinn Féin and UUP all within one seat of each other.
Alliance secured representation (three seats) on the council for the first time in 2019.
ABOUT THE COUNCIL AREA
The Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon Borough Council merged the old Armagh City & District Council, Banbridge District Council and Craigavon Borough Council, with the exception of the Ballyward ward (Banbridge), and the addition of the Charlemont ward (Dungannon). The new council has by far the largest electorate of any of the 40 or 41 seat councils outside Belfast.
PREVIOUS ELECTION
The DUP remained the dominant party on council in 2019 despite dropping to 11 seats.
Sinn Féin moved into second place with 22.0% share of the vote and 10 councillors elected.
While their overall vote share (21.6%) and seat tally (10) was down across the council, three UUP councillors were elected in Banbridge DEA with a massive 36.1% of the vote, their best result in any district across Northern Ireland.
Alliance more than doubled their vote to 7.4% with three councillors elected for the first time.
SINCE 2019
Paul Rankin (DUP) was co-opted to the Assembly in February 2022 but was co-opted back onto council after he failed to hold the seat in the May 2022 Assembly election.
Eóin Tennyson (Alliance) was elected to the Assembly in May 2022.
Darryn Causby resigned from the DUP in the wake of Edwin Poots standing down as party leader in June 2021, served as an independent before re-joining the party in November 2021, and then resigned as a councillor and was replaced in November 2022.
One councillor died and a number of others resigned and were replaced during the council term.
COMMENTARY
This will be an interesting council area to watch, not just to see the internal battle within unionism, but also to see how unionism is performing overall. The DUP are targeting gains at the expense of the UUP with seats in Armagh and Cusher the most vulnerable. Unionism holds a narrow majority on this council and a small swing to Sinn Féin and Alliance could see the pro-union parties lose control of the council for the first time.
Independent councillor Paul Berry is once again seeking re-election in Cusher and is safely sitting just north of a quota of first preferences. Keith Radcliffe ran for the TUV in Newry & Armagh at the last Assembly election, polling a credible 5,407 first preference votes. His entry onto the Cusher ballot paper will further split the unionist vote (a solid 73% of first preferences in 2019) and make the final seat (won by the UUP with a margin of just 1.84 votes in 2019) a three-way contest between DUP, TUV and UUP.
Every vote counts in Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon. The final seat was won with fewer than 50 votes in four of the council DEAs at the last election. Despite starting with 0.9 of a quota of first preference votes, the DUP lost out to Sinn Féin in Armagh by 9.7 votes.
Alliance will want to capitalise on their strong showing at the last Assembly election and increase their seat count. On paper, Craigavon DEA should be a target for growth, although former Alliance candidate Jackie Coade is now standing for the SDLP in Craigavon (replacing Thomas Larkham who is stepping down at this election). This will be an interesting battle between the two parties and may reflect each party’s wider fortunes at the ballot box. It may also be a quick battle with only eight candidates standing for five seats!