We are more than halfway through the current Assembly mandate. Two years from now, parties will be on the home stretch of the 2027 Assembly Election campaign. The posters will be up on the lampposts, and the parties will make their final push to get their voters out to the polls on Election Day.
After just over three years in office, the Executive parties will be running to defend their record on what they have achieved; however, they are more likely to make a pitch about what they could accomplish with a full five-year mandate instead of the shorter terms Northern Ireland has had to endure due to various collapses in power-sharing since 2017.
When we get to 2027, what would a good start for the Executive look like? What could they have achieved so voters would notice and acknowledge that Northern Ireland is finally on the right track after years of drift?
Regional Balance
Rebalancing Northern Ireland's economy, particularly in the North-West, will be a real test for Sinn Féin. When he was Economy Minister, Conor Murphy launched a Sub-Regional Economic Plan in late 2024, which sets out a restructuring of Invest NI and the establishment of local economic partnerships that will identify priorities to build the local economy. Now that Caoimhe Archibald, an MLA based in the North-West, has moved to the department earlier this year, there will be scrutiny on whether green shoots of economic development are happening West of the Bann.
Housing
This is a sleeper issue in Northern Ireland politics, but it will be one of the main issues being debated on the hustings during the 2027 election. House prices are already at a 17-year high with little evidence of any slowdown on the horizon. Looking at how this has become a significant issue in the Republic, parties in the Executive will know this issue can cut across various demographics and shift voters.
The Executive will need to introduce the necessary reforms around water infrastructure and planning to help increase the number of homes built across Northern Ireland. This will be a longer-term problem to solve, but by 2027, potential homebuyers and those helping close family members get on the ladder will want to see some signs of things turning around.
Childcare
A significant cost-of-living issue affecting society is childcare. The Education Minister, Paul Givan, has made some moves in this area with the Childcare Subsidy Scheme. Still, there is recognition that this will need to go further over the coming years so that parents feel relief from the rising childcare costs. Producing and then delivering a Childcare Strategy will be an important measure of the delivery of this policy.
Health
Last but certainly not least, healthcare. For the past few years, the public service that we all interact with in some way has been in the headlines for many of the wrong reasons. We all know the story of waiting lists and a need for reform. The Health Minister, Mike Nesbitt, has already spoken about the difficulties his department faces in the current funding environment, which leaves no easy options available to help turn around the many challenges faced by the Health and Social Care system.
By 2027, most voters will view the progress of healthcare through how long people are on a waiting list. This will not be resolved by 2027; to the minister's credit, he is not pretending it will be. However, there will be an expectation from the public that, after three years of devolution, some progress will be achieved.
The Expectations Game
In politics, perception often matters as much as reality. That is to say, public expectations matter a lot in judging success. Voters will be, in the main, happy that Stormont is back and some semblance of normality has returned. Yet, underneath that, the low expectations for delivery and reform continue to hurt the Executive.
This is also not helped by the various external factors buffeting the Executive, from tough spending plans from Westminster to Trump tariffs. By 2027, voters will want a sense that Northern Ireland is back on track, which the Executive needs to demonstrate as it heads into the final laps of this mandate.