The next leader of the Conservative Party, and the country’s newest Prime Minister, will be announced by 1922 Committee Chairman Sir Graham Brady at 12:30pm tomorrow. This follows a frenetic campaign over the past two months which has seen 11 hopefuls whittled down to the final two – former Chancellor Rishi Sunak MP and the current Foreign Secretary Liz Truss MP.
After a summer of nationwide hustings, increasingly wild promises (Liz Truss pledging to “take a look” at scrapping motorway speed limits, for example), and intra-party sniping, Boris Johnson will be out of Downing Street by Tuesday and the winner appointed by the Queen in Balmoral.
Both candidates have clashed over fiscal policy, with Liz Truss pledging to scrap national insurance and corporation tax rises, something the Sunak campaign has labelled as fiscally irresponsible. The former Chancellor has vowed to tackle inflation first before introducing tax cuts. Specific policy promises, however, have been light on both sides.
Whichever candidate is appointed Prime Minister on Tuesday, the backdrop to their arrival is certainly unenviable. Unprecedented energy costs and inflation, coupled with a buckling NHS bracing itself for winter pressures, will certainly shape the direction of the new Prime Minister’s first few weeks in office.
But whether it is the Northern Ireland Protocol or our absent Assembly remaining in cold storage, the new occupant of No 10 will eventually have to turn their attention to Northern Ireland. The bookies favourite, and current sponsor of the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, Liz Truss has vowed to ensure the Bill progresses through Westminster, while also not ruling out triggering Article 16 in the coming weeks.
Sunak, on the other hand, has notable misgivings over the Protocol Bill and will likely be more reluctant to escalate tensions with the EU saying a negotiated settlement can be obtained “far quicker.” A new Secretary of State for NI is also likely to be appointed in the inevitable reshuffle this week, with Shailesh Vara unlikely to reach a third month in the role.
For the majority of the local parties, the return of the local institutions will remain the number one priority. For the DUP, they will want to see a recommitment by the new premier to fundamentally alter the NI Protocol.
Tomorrow will see the Tory Party appoint their third leader and Prime Minister since the Brexit referendum. Might either Truss or Sunak have more luck than their predecessors and steer the UK to the fabled Brexit sunlit uplands we’ve heard so much about? It remains to be seen.
The immediate challenges are clear, helping households and businesses through an incredibly difficult winter period. Longer term, they must grapple with issues like climate change, the post-pandemic economic recovery, and securing the safety of the Union in the face of growing Scottish nationalism and calls for a border poll in NI.
Whoever wins will want to make their mark as soon as possible, so watch this space for policy announcements, cost-of-living supports, and the appointment of new ministers.