#AE22 Constituency Profile: Lagan Valley
ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY
Lagan Valley is ten times the area of neighbouring Belfast West constituency.
The city of Lisburn is at the heart of the Lagan Valley constituency, which stretches from Ballinderry to Gransha, and Moira to Drumbo.
The official royal residence for Northern Ireland lies within the constituency’s village of Hillsborough. Letters patent were issued in 2021 and the village is now known as Royal Hillsborough.
Lagan Valley has an older than average population profile and deprivation levels are low in the constituency.
The 2011 Census reports that Lagan Valley has the fourth smallest population proportion from a Catholic community background (19.0%).
PREVIOUS ELECTIONS
The DUP have attracted more than 40% of first preference votes in every Assembly election since Jeffrey Donaldson joined the party from the UUP.
While the DUP won 4 seats out of 6 in the 2011 Assembly election, they lost one to UUP’s Jenny Palmer (a former DUP councillor) in 2016, and only held onto 2 seats in 2017 in the new 5 seat configuration.
The best Alliance result was in 1998 with 14.6% of the first preference vote. However, they surged to 28.8% in the 2019 Westminster election.
Lagan Valley was without a Nationalist representative in the Assembly from 2011-2017. SDLP gained a seat in 2017 having lost it in 2007.
SINCE 2017
Trevor Lunn was first elected as an Alliance MLA in March 2007, resigning from the party in March 2020. Since then he has sat as an independent MLA and is not running again.
Edwin Poots resigned his Lagan Valley seat in early March to be co-opted into Christopher Stalford’s Belfast South seat. Poots’ replacement is Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon Councillor Paul Rankin who is not standing for election on 5 May and will become the shortest serving MLA in the NI Assembly’s history.
THE DAY OF THE COUNT
Two or maybe even three candidates could be elected in the first stage over quota: 2 DUP and either a UUP or Alliance candidate if those parties haven’t balanced their vote across running mates.
Pat Catney’s route to keeping his seat for the SDLP involves staying ahead of the second UUP and second Alliance candidates and picking up their transfers as well as those from excluded Sinn Féin and Green candidates.
COMMENTARY
Since new party leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson announced his intention to return to Assembly politics, it looked like Donaldson, Poots and Givan would all be on the ticket trying to win back the third seat the DUP lost by a small margin in 2017. With Poots moving to Belfast South, the party are only fielding two candidates, suggesting they expect the DUP vote to be well down in this election.
UUP deputy leader Robbie Butler will be looking to win back lost ground from 2017 with his running mate, Laura Turner.
Alliance is also looking to advance. For the first time, they are running two candidates in the constituency – Councillors Sorcha Eastwood and David Honeyford – to capitalise on strong results in 2019 when Eastwood more than doubled Alliance’s share of the vote at Westminster.
The SDLP won their seat in 2017 by just 400 votes over the DUP. Sitting MLA, Pat Catney will be battling again to hold his seat over the second UUP and Alliance hopefuls.
PREDICTIONS
Two safe DUP seats, along with one apiece for UUP and Alliance.
The fifth seat is marginal but sitting MLA Pat Catney (SDLP) has the advantage.
A second seat for Alliance or the UUP would suggest big gains for them in other constituencies.