#AE22 Constituency Profile: Belfast North
ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY
Belfast North is 100% urban according to NISRA's definition, and is the third smallest constituency by area.
Many of the city’s peace walls run through north Belfast.
It’s the most deprived constituency (using NISRA’s measure of the proportion of super output areas (SOA) in each constituency which lie within the top 10% most deprived SOAs in Northern Ireland).
Belfast North has the highest unemployment in Northern Ireland according to latest experimental claimant count.
The 2011 Census reports that 46.9% of Belfast North population was from a Catholic community background, and 45.7% Protestant.
PREVIOUS ELECTIONS
DUP suffered a high profile loss in 2017 with the defeat of Nelson McCausland.
The combined Unionist share was 42.8% versus 42.5% for Nationalism. Yet Nationalists won three out of five seats in 2017.
In fact, nationalists have held 3 seats in Belfast North since 2003 (2 Sinn Féin and 1 SDLP).
Fourth lowest constituency turnout in 2017 Assembly election.
The results came in a rush in 2017, with two (DUP) candidates elected in stage 6, and the remaining three elected under quota in stage 7.
SINCE 2017
One of only four constituencies which started and finished the term with all 5 MLAs who had been elected in March 2017
Both sitting DUP candidates are standing down: deputy leader Paula Bradley and William Humphrey.
TUV are running a candidate in the constituency; they didn’t stand in the 2017 Assembly election.
Former PUP councillor and Assembly candidate Julie-Anne Corr-Johnston is running for the UUP in this election.
THE DAY OF THE COUNT
Expect a repeat of 2017 with no candidate being elected over the quota in the first stage given the well-balanced and competitive field.
Sinn Féin’s vote balancing has improved, but in previous elections Gerry Kelly has always polled more than running mate Carál Ní Chuilín.
Alliance will be hoping for strong transfers from excluded Green and UUP candidates.
COMMENTARY
The North Belfast area is incredibly competitive in local, Assembly and Westminster elections. Two deputy leaders are seeking election, though DUP’s Paula Bradley is not standing.
The party suffered setbacks in the constituency with big-name losses such as Nigel Dodds and Nelson McCausland. Going into this election, the DUP hold two relatively safe Assembly seats and are not trying to regain a third. With both sitting MLAs standing down, the DUP are running two council group leaders: Brian Kingston (Belfast City Council) and Phillip Brett (Antrim & Newtownabbey Borough Council).
While other unionist parties are running higher profile campaigns in the constituency this year, they are unlikely to be competitive unless unionist turnout improves. Former PUP candidate Julie-Anne Corr Johnston is running under the UUP flag, while Ron McDowell is running for the TUV.
The Infrastructure Minister and SDLP deputy leader, Nichola Mallon, should be able defend her seat without any great problems. Green Party deputy leader Mal O’Hara will still be well shy of a quota, but will be hoping to boost the party’s share for local government elections in 2023.
The real battle is between Sinn Féin and Alliance. Narrowly missing out on a seat in 2017, Councillor Nuala McCallister is running again and hopes to capitalise on the Alliance surge that swept across Belfast in 2019. Her success would most likely come at the expense of one of the sitting Sinn Féin MLAs, Gerry Kelly or Carál Ní Chuilín. Belfast North is one of Alliance’s top targets for a gain. Missing out here would indicate lower chances of gains in other constituencies.
PREDICTIONS
Two DUP seats with one SDLP and one Sinn Féin.
The last seat will be a tight battle between Sinn Féin and Alliance.
