#AE22 Constituency Profile: Strangford
ABOUT THE CONSTITUENCY
This largely rural constituency wraps around Strangford Lough and includes the urban populations of Saintfield, Comber, Newtownards, Portaferry and Strangford.
Across the 18 constituencies, the 2011 Census reports that Strangford has the third largest population proportion from a Protestant community background (73%).
PREVIOUS ELECTIONS
Since 2003, the constituency has elected 1 Alliance MLA and the remaining 4 or 5 seats have been split between the UUP and DUP.
The SDLP are the perpetual runners up, missing out on the last seat.
Strangford is a DUP stronghold, their best constituency in 2017 with 3 serving ministers returned.
Strangford had the third lowest voter turnout (60.9%) in 2017.
SINCE 2017
Four of the MLAs elected in 2017 are still in the Assembly: Kellie Armstrong (Alliance), Michelle McIlveen (DUP), Mike Nesbitt (UUP), Peter Weir (DUP).
The DUP’s Simon Hamilton resigned in September 2019 and is now chief executive of the Belfast Chamber of Commerce. Harry Harvey was co-opted as his replacement.
THE DAY OF THE COUNT
Strangford was one of the longest counts in 2017 requiring 12 stages of exclusions and transfers to elect its 5 MLAs. None of the candidates breached the quota with their first preference votes.
It took 4 stages before Kellie Armstrong reached the quota in 2017. It could take even longer this year for the first candidate to be elected.
Once the smaller parties and independent candidates are out of the picture, watch out for the order of exclusions. The early exclusion of the second Alliance candidate would keep SDLP’s Conor Houston in the race for longer.
COMMENTARY
All 5 sitting MLAs are running again. A total of 12 candidates are running, including independent unionist councillor Jimmy Menagh.
Peter Weir squeaked into the last seat in 2017 under quota, with just 225 votes separating him from the SDLP’s Joe Boyle. His seat will be in the direct sight of newbie SDLP candidate, Conor Houston, who is trying to become the first Nationalist to win a seat in the constituency.
However, it’s a very competitive field, with Alliance running two candidates for the first time to capitalise on their recent strong electoral results, and the UUP’s Philip Smith trying to recapture the second UUP seat he lost in 2017.
If the DUP retained all three seats, that would bolster their race to be the largest party or part of the largest designation in the new Assembly.
PREDICTIONS
Four of the five seats are easy to call. The DUP will hold two along with one apiece for the UUP and Alliance.
The final seat is a battle between DUP and SDLP – too tight to call – though an Alliance surge or a significant unionist swing from DUP to UUP would point to strong results across the board for those parties.
