This year, politics and business in Northern Ireland has been dominated by the lack of an Executive, the Northern Ireland Protocol, the cost-of-living-crisis and now a recession. With three Prime Ministers, the Election of a Northern Ireland Assembly that is yet to form an Executive despite five recalls, and last week’s Taoiseach rotation, it’s been a year of political drama, new faces, and prolonged stalemate.
Last month, Secretary of State Chris Heaton-Harris MP decided against a pre-Christmas Assembly Election, pushing the deadline for reform of the power-sharing institutions to 19 January. In the likelihood that it is missed, he will then be required to call a fresh Assembly Election within 12 weeks, the latest date for which it can be held being Thursday 13 April. Given that the restoration is directly linked to the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill and negotiations with the EU, there remains little prospect of political stability in the New Year.
With this in mind, here are our top 10 political and business developments to look out for in 2023:
1. On 18 May 2023, the people of Northern Ireland will go to the polls to elect 462 councillors across the 11 council areas. This election will be held in a context where, for the first time, Sinn Féin is the largest party at the Assembly. Can the DUP rebound or will Sinn Féin consolidate their position?
2. Belfast City Council will publish its 2022-2030 Economic Strategy, which aims to support sustainable and inclusive growth ambitions for the city alongside the Department for the Economy’s 10X Strategy.
3. The final report of the Independent Review of Education, which intends to identify barriers within the education system, is expected by April.
4. The new U.S. Special Envoy to Northern Ireland Joe Kennedy III will make his first trip to Northern Ireland early in the New Year as he seeks to advance economic development and investment opportunities.
5. 10 April will mark the 25th Anniversary of the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement, when a conference will be hosted by Queen’s University Belfast.
6. President Joe Biden is expected to make his first visit to Northern Ireland to coincide with these commemorations. However, the prospect of a Presidential Visit is thought to be dependent on the restoration of Northern Ireland’s power-sharing institutions.
7. The Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland will review Parliamentary constituency boundaries and submit its final report with recommendations before 1 July.
8. Following the discontinuation of the Sunday Independent’s Northern Ireland edition, the local media landscape will be altered further if proposed programming changes to BBC Radio Foyle and the removal of the Inside Business programme go ahead in April, prompting questions around the future of the public’s relationship with local media.
9. As businesses continue to implement and prepare for further changes announced by the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt MP in his Autumn Statement, Number 11 is preparing to bring forward a Spring Budget on 15 March.
10. A second Independence Referendum attempt by the Scottish Government is scheduled for 19 October